MBB: Wake 113, Duke 101 (2OT) Post-Game Thread

[kshepinthehouse]

suggestion 1) don't switch your center onto the ball handler

how many times in the past decade has K ridden that ship down to the ocean floor?

Obviously he's one of the best all time, but K's dedication to doing that is his biggest weakness. wake scored 28 points in the 6+ minutes at the end of regulation and first overtime. 4-5 points a minute. that's absurd.

We could also hedge that pick but we don’t do that anymore for some reason. Bolden was really good at that.

[uh_no]

We could also hedge that pick but we don’t do that anymore for some reason. Bolden was really good at that.

yeah it's something that took a bit to learn, but he got really good at it. Big man could have used another year, I think

[Kedsy]

Yes he has to avoid cheap fouls but also we need a backup center who can stay on the floor. It doesn't appear to be Javin. after 4 years, he still hasn't learned to avoid fouling and he is a liability on offense.

I get that Javin's performance last night was pretty egregious (5 fouls in 4 minutes) but since November 23, Javin has only had two games (including last night) with more than three fouls. He's mostly been staying on the floor just fine. And while he hasn't been contributing a whole lot on offense (with his 11.1% usage rate in conference play), I wouldn't call him a "liability," either. His oRating in conference play is 3rd on the team (116.8), and both his eFG% and true shooting pct in conference play are best on the team.

[RollDevils]

I have no objective data to back this up, but one of the issues I have had with Duke the last couple of years is the tendency to play one on one or, at best, two man ball. I feel like over the last half of the ACC season, we have been more focused on feeding BigVern and have had less emphasis on ball movement than we had earlier in the year. That could certainly explain a lack of intensity and focus from the other guys, particularly on the defensive end. Doth my eyes deceive me?

[roywhite]

I get that Javin's performance last night was pretty egregious (5 fouls in 4 minutes) but since November 23, Javin has only had two games (including last night) with more than three fouls. He's mostly been staying on the floor just fine. And while he hasn't been contributing a whole lot on offense (with his 11.1% usage rate in conference play), I wouldn't call him a "liability," either. His oRating in conference play is 3rd on the team (116.8), and both his eFG% and true shooting pct in conference play are best on the team.

That certainly suggests that the officiating was unusual last night. And it was a major benefit to the home team.

Okay, enough. On to the next game.

[kshepinthehouse]

Correction, I believe you meant to include White instead of Hurt in your metrics above. Hurt had 12 points on 4-11 shooting, 4 Rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, so he wasn't outplayed by Robinson.

From what I saw we played weak during the last 2 minutes of the game and (aided by a couple of friendly Wake whistles) allowed Wake to mount a comeback. We were down one of our two primary scoring options at that point, and no one stepped up except for Tre. Wake was driving the ball into the lane and forcing us to collapse, then making smart passes to get wide open shots and fouls. Our offense consisted of "give the ball to Tre, get out of the way, and hope he can make something happen out of nothing." Hurt had several good looks from deep that barely drew iron, which is unusual for him. Everyone else stood around and watched on both ends.

I still don't understand how in a game with 50+ fouls called, the tackle of Goldwire late wasn't one of them. Coupling that one with the ridiculous offensive foul call a few seconds later was just comical. Call the first foul and J-Gold goes to the line for 2 shots with a 3 point lead and 30s to go. But good teams respond when they get a tough break. This team does not seem to have a killer instinct. When we get punched in the mouth, we get scared and cower rather than punch back.

Winning hides a lot of warts. I had almost forgotten we dodged a huge bullet last year vs. Wake in a game they should have won, and we essentially did the exact same thing Wake did to us vs. UNC earlier this year. So karma has a way of coming full circle.

I think our biggest issues are that teams have figured out how to attack us:
- Offense - we do not move without the ball. Goal is to get it inside to Carey. If that fails, we hand it to Tre and hope he can make something happen. That's it. That's our offensive game plan. A packed line defense to clog the lane does wonders to stop Carey and Jones. Just hope that Duke has an off night shooting threes, which seems to happen every other game. Also, press anyone not named Tre Jones and try to create turnovers, because we're not especially good ball handlers.

- Defense - screen the guard off the ballhandler until you get one of our bigs, then drive and shoot/dish/get fouled. Lather, rinse, repeat. We've got to figure out how to defend this better, as teams are eating us alive with this set. Maybe have the big hedge on the screen?

At this point I don't think we'll make it out of the first weekend of the NCAA tournament. We need someone to step up and be a reliable third option on offense (Paging Stanley, Paging Cassius Stanley). I hope I'm wrong, but it's beginning harder to see how this team mounts a run to the FF playing lackluster ball on both ends of the court.

Hurt may have had 12 points, but he gave up about 45 points. It felt like every point in overtime was scored on him. You can watch the Wake players trying to figure out how to isolate Hurt. It got so bad that Wendell Moore was trying to switch the pick and roll so he could defend it instead of Hurt. Then you could see Wake send a Moore’s man in an effort to continue to try to isolate Hurt in their guard. It was a cat and mouse game to get Hurt one on one. I don’t care how many points he scored, he gave up a ton more.

[CDu]

And while he hasn't been contributing a whole lot on offense (with his 11.1% usage rate in conference play), I wouldn't call him a "liability," either. His oRating in conference play is 3rd on the team (116.8), and both his eFG% and true shooting pct in conference play are best on the team.

Because he only shoots layups and dunks (with the exception of his recent frisky tendency to shoot a 3). That tends to inflate those particular stats.

He can’t dribble, can’t pass, can’t score in the post, and can’t shoot. I think “liability” is a pretty reasonable assessment. It is a liability that the team MAY be able to overcome if his defense is good, but he is still a liability on offense that the team has to gameplan around.

[Saratoga2]

To be fair, what I think he's doing is covering for the real issue: that this team is both young AND not that talented. We've had plenty of young teams the last several years that didn't have these issues. The bigger issue is that the youth we have - especially if Carey is in foul trouble and unavailable - just isn't that good. And the upperclassmen we have just aren't that good*. There are no sure-fire lottery picks, and only 1 or 2 guys who are even likely first-round picks this year. Heck, if everyone chose to enter the draft this year, we might only see 3 of these guys get drafted at all. In the past, we had elite talent in our young players, whereas this year we have good but not great young players except for Jones and Carey.

So I think when Coach K is lamenting our youth, he's saying it that was so as to not say "we just aren't that good" again.

I see Vernon as one of the top offensive centers in the NCAA. Teams generally double team him in the post. Hiis defense has nott caught up as yet but he has the tools to be good in that regard, although its asking a lot when quick athletic guards get past their Duke defenders and get on him one on one. No big man center can survive in a high pace game for 40 minutes, so our weakness at the center position comes in the 10 to 15 minutes we have to go backup.

Tre is an excellent ball handler but is not a blowby guard, nor is he an uber athlete who can elevate over others. He uses guile to get into his shooting position and has improved as a scorer this year. His defense is excellent, but he has been asked to carry the load for 40 mpg on a two way basis, which is a heavy load for him.

Beyond those two we have Wendell, a strong athlete of good but not great size foor a wing. He is an excellent defender but his prmary weakness comes on the offensive side. He is talked of as having a good handle but he tends to put his head down and bullrush to the basket and he makes enough errors with the ball to be called turnover proone.

Cassius is an uber athlete who can score off of drives, alleyoops and his shooting can be good but is inconsistent. Some has said he is inconsistent.

Jordan probably has the second best handle on the team and is a good athlete. He doesn't seem to have the game sense of Tre and his shootiing is spotty. Has trouble finishing a drive.

Beyond them is Matthew, who has a lot of scoring tools but has been abused on defense. While about 6'9", he is not yet suited to play inside. Not the quick tough athletic type at this point in hiis career.

Alex is a very good athlete and is quick and of good size and length. At times he canhelp the team and seems like it comes more often of late.

Javin is primarily a substitute at center. He has athleticism and quickness but he seems to struggle against other capable bigs and isn't much of an offensive threat.

We have Jack and Joey who both seem not to get many minutes at this point.

So, we are a good team but not a great team this year. Would like to see more ball movement on offense and more participation from guys not named Tre or Vernon. Maybe some zone on defense to keep Vernon in the game longer. Still, I love to watch them play.

[JimSouthie]

I see Vernon as one of the top offensive centers in the NCAA.

Do you think the WF hurt his draft stock if hes leaning on his offensive game?

Didn't work out for Okafor and he was superb.

[Steven43]

Do you think the WF hurt his draft stock if hes leaning on his offensive game?

Didn't work out for Okafor and he was superb.

Old school centers like Vernon Carey just aren’t valued very highly by the NBA anymore. Okafor is a prime example. And look at the recent trade involving Andre Drummond, former center for Detroit, who was basically given away for a box of doughnuts. Detroit was like “Take him, PLEASE.” Same thing with the recent trade of Clint Capella.

The days of the dominant center who plays strictly around the basket are pretty much over. Sad, but true.

[jv001]

I feel like you're lumping several different categories of players together, in an apples-and-oranges kind of way. I wasn't really talking about guys ranked in the 20s (like 5 of the 11 guys you mention were ranked out of high school), and I also think you have to look differently at guys who were ranked really low out of high school (like another 3 of the 11 you mentioned), especially guys who transferred in, like Curry.

In my original post (that you responded to), I specifically mentioned players ranked between 30 and 70, but we can even make that 30 to 100, if you want. With that in mind, here's a list of recruits in the RSCI era, by "category" (I've put the exact ranking for guys you've mentioned in your post or are on this year's team):

Rated 20 to 29
-----------------
Wendell Moore (#25)
Luke Kennard
Grayson Allen (#24)
Amile Jefferson (#21)
Rodney Hood*
Michael Gbinije**
Andre Dawkins
Taylor King**
Brian Zoubek
Lance Thomas (#20)
Jon Scheyer (#28)
Sean Dockery (#21)
Daniel Ewing
Mike Dunleavy

Rated 30 to 100
------------------
Cassius Stanley (#33)
Joey Baker (#37)
Jordan Tucker**
Alex O'Connell (#69)
Javin DeLaurier (#35)
Semi Ojeleye**
Matt Jones (#34)
Quinn Cook
Alex Murphy**
Marshall Plumlee (#61)
Josh Hairston (#32)
Olek Czyz**
Eric Boateng**
Marty Pocius
Miles Plumlee (#81)
Dave McClure
Dahntay Jones*
Michael Thompson**

Not in top 100
----------------
Jordan Goldwire
Jack White
Antonio Vrankovic
Sean Obi*
Tyler Thornton
Seth Curry*
Lee Melchionni
Andre Sweet**
Nick Horvath
Andre Buckner

* transferred in
** transferred out

I've separated out that last category, because they come in with no expectations so almost any playing time would be a "progression." Even then, maybe you'd list four of the eight non-transfer-in players as guys who really progressed, and two of those are on this year's team.

In the 20s category, the vast majority made the NBA and a bunch of them played good minutes as freshmen. I just don't think those types of players are comparable to guys rated 30 and up, for the purposes of this discussion anyway.

In Javin's and Alex's category (not counting Dahntay Jones), there are 17 players. Cassius Stanley is one of them, but he's playing way too much as a freshman and probably won't be around long enough for us to see how much he progresses. Of the other 16, I'd say four progressed well (Quinn Cook, Matt Jones, Miles Plumlee, and Marshall Plumlee), six haven't progressed any more than Javin and Alex, and six didn't progress and transferred out (though one or two of those guys progressed nicely after leaving Duke). In other words, 12 of 16 did not progress very much at Duke.

It's also worth noting that even some guys in the top 20 didn't progress so much at Duke (e.g., Chase Jeter, Marques Bolden, Greg Paulus, Shavlik Randolph, Casey Sanders).

And if you want to go further back, there were another bunch of players who didn't progress very much, but I haven't listed them because without the RSCI it's hard to categorize them.

Or, put another way, what you're observing with Javin and Alex is far from unprecedented or historically disappointing. To the contrary, it's probably what we ought to have expected.

Thanks for gathering this interesting information. I was curious about Lee Melchionni and how he progressed. I always rooted for Lee because his dad, Gary was one of my favorite Duke players. So, I looked him up and it seems he did progress to the point that he did make some contributions. In his junior year(his best) Lee played 21.7 mpg. and was .396% on threes while averaging 7.7 pts per game. But in his Sr year those number dropped down to 19.9 mpg. and he hit .320% on threes. In his junior year his numbers were better in ACC play. He hit 44% of his threes and was ranked 4th in the league. His average on made threes was 2.19 per game. He had 11 double digit scoring games and was leading scorer in 2 games for the Devils. Keeping in mind JJ and Shelden were on that team. So, I guess all things considered, Lee Melchoinni did improve from his freshmen year to his junior year. Even though he dropped off somewhat his senior year.

GoDuke

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Old school centers like Vernon Carey just aren’t valued very highly by the NBA anymore. Okafor is a prime example. And look at the recent trade involving Andre Drummond, former center for Detroit, who was basically given away for a box of doughnuts. Detroit was like “Take him, PLEASE.” Same thing with the recent trade of Clint Capella.

The days of the dominant center who plays strictly around the basket are pretty much over. Sad, but true.

Except that everything I hear during broadcasts tells me Carey never played back-to-the-basket until this season.

[CDu]

Except that everything I hear during broadcasts tells me Carey never played back-to-the-basket until this season.

Yeah, I think Carey's shooting will help him. But the concern is his defense; specifically his defense away from the basket. It's getting harder for guys his size to stay on the floor unless they can handle switches on ball screens on the perimeter. The bigs who get floor time either can do that or are elite shotblockers (i.e., usually long and/or springy) or both. Otherwise, they get roasted by switches onto guards.

I think Carey's offensive game translates pretty well to the modern NBA. The questions for him are mostly on the other end.

[jimsumner]

Thanks for gathering this interesting information. I was curious about Lee Melchionni and how he progressed. I always rooted for Lee because his dad, Gary was one of my favorite Duke players. So, I looked him up and it seems he did progress to the point that he did make some contributions. In his junior year(his best) Lee played 21.7 mpg. and was .396% on threes while averaging 7.7 pts per game. But in his Sr year those number dropped down to 19.9 mpg. and he hit .320% on threes. In his junior year his numbers were better in ACC play. He hit 44% of his threes and was ranked 4th in the league. His average on made threes was 2.19 per game. He had 11 double digit scoring games and was leading scorer in 2 games for the Devils. Keeping in mind JJ and Shelden were on that team. So, I guess all things considered, Lee Melchoinni did improve from his freshmen year to his junior year. Even though he dropped off somewhat his senior year.

GoDuke

Lee Melchionni's junior year--2005-was the year Shavlik Randolph suffered a bout with mono, which meant Melchionni played a lot as an under-sized 4. Josh McRoberts came in the next year, moving Melchionni back to his natural wing position, where he had more competition for PT.

Ironically, he was marginally better at his non-natural position than at his natural position.

[Steven43]

Except that everything I hear during broadcasts tells me Carey never played back-to-the-basket until this season.

Are you putting more stock in what he did in high school against smaller, inferior opponents than would you have seen from him in college at Duke against much better competition? I’m not saying you are doing that, I’m merely asking.

[SouthernDukie]

Yeah, I think Carey's shooting will help him. But the concern is his defense; specifically his defense away from the basket. It's getting harder for guys his size to stay on the floor unless they can handle switches on ball screens on the perimeter. The bigs who get floor time either can do that or are elite shotblockers (i.e., usually long and/or springy) or both. Otherwise, they get roasted by switches onto guards.

I think Carey's offensive game translates pretty well to the modern NBA. The questions for him are mostly on the other end.

I agree. His offensive game will be fine in the NBA. He's shown he's a more than capable 3-point shooter. The question is does he have the quickness needed for bigs in the NBA today? Just ask yourself if Carey has the lateral quickness to guard the modern 4/5 in the NBA. Being large/tall doesn't mean what it used to mean for the NBA.

[jv001]

Lee Melchionni's junior year--2005-was the year Shavlik Randolph suffered a bout with mono, which meant Melchionni played a lot as an under-sized 4. Josh McRoberts came in the next year, moving Melchionni back to his natural wing position, where he had more competition for PT.

Ironically, he was marginally better at his non-natural position than at his natural position.

That makes sense that Lee would lose time to McRoberts at the PF position in his senior year. Lee actually outperformed Randolph in his junior year. Looking back on the career of Randolph, he was pretty much a disappointment but I guess part of that was the injuries he suffered. Mono and bone spurs hindered him and he never reached the level of play that most thought he would attain. If I remember correctly he surprised many people when he declared for the NBA after his sophomore year. He wasn't drafted by any NBA team but did sign with the Sixers I believe.

GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Are you putting more stock in what he did in high school against smaller, inferior opponents than would you have seen from him in college at Duke against much better competition? I’m not saying you are doing that, I’m merely asking.

I guess I am? I'm just suggesting that if he played outside the paint for four years before arriving at Duke, he might have a more versatile skill set than we've seen this far, and I wouldn't make broad statements about him being an old school back to the basket big.

[Steven43]

I guess I am? I'm just suggesting that if he played outside the paint for four years before arriving at Duke, he might have a more versatile skill set than we've seen this far, and I wouldn't make broad statements about him being an old school back to the basket big.

Well, I don’t consider my comment of him being an “old school center” to be anything other than what we have literally witnessed during his time at Duke. I consider his play in college to be much more determinative of how the NBA views his game than anything he did in high school. And his play at Duke has mostly been that of a traditional center.

[jv001]

Well, I don’t consider my comment of him being an “old school center” to be anything other than what we have literally witnessed during his time at Duke. I consider his play in college to be much more determinative of how the NBA views his game than anything he did in high school. And his play at Duke has mostly been that of a traditional center.

One thing for sure, that slowwww release 3 point shot won't work in the NBA.

GoDuke!