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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    WA State
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    Virginia can't even beat Duke consistently when they have a GREAT team. Not expecting much resistance from my Hoos this Sat, sadly. Have to take care of business @VT on Wed to stay on pace to make the NCAAs comfortably.
    Nope, not falling for that. Nice try.
    The Hoos are at a sneaky 11-5 record. That's not a team to take lightly.
    Your team is playing much better over the last month.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Rent free in tarheels’ heads
    Quote Originally Posted by Hingeknocker View Post
    In honor of hoping with every fiber of my being that NC State wins in Chapel Hill this week, I decided I would try to find something nice to say about UNC. And I think I've found it!

    Per KenPom, UNC is - by quite a large margin - the best 17-loss team in the country! With UNC at #91, you have to go all the way down to #167 Old Dominon to find the next best 17-loss team. In a hypothetical, neutral-site matchup, UNC would be favored by around 7 points against ODU. Something to be proud of!
    How can the cheats be ranked higher in Kenpom than VT, Pitt, Wake, Miami and BC? The only team on that list they beat was a totally depleted Miami. Pitt beat them twice for god sake. They’re 4-16 since their early season win over Oregon. And as we all know they’re leading the ACC in losses. Kenpom’s model is broken.
    “Coach said no 3s.” - Zion on The Block

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    I moved. Now 12 miles from Heaven, 13 from Hell
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    How can the cheats be ranked higher in Kenpom than VT, Pitt, Wake, Miami and BC? The only team on that list they beat was a totally depleted Miami. Pitt beat them twice for god sake. They’re 4-16 since their early season win over Oregon. And as we all know they’re leading the ACC in losses. Kenpom’s model is broken.
    Ken was required to include fraternity students in his calculations for the cheats.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Don't look now, but we're less than 3 minutes away from having a new conference leader in MBB...
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Don't look now, but we're less than 3 minutes away from having a new conference leader in MBB...
    Depending on which direction you're facing, the heels have been leading for a while ...

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Don't look now, but we're less than 3 minutes away from having a new conference leader in MBB...
    ...and good to finally see a full arena and loud crowd in Tallahassee for someone not named Duke...kind of a retro Metro Conference game.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Delaware
    Pretty simple math for Duke. Win out and get the 1 seed. Any less probably leaves you as the 2 or 3 as you need both FSU and Louisville to lose again to get the 1 with a loss, and Louisville has only one realistically lose able game left and they get a bye heading into it

  8. #28
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    ...and good to finally see a full arena and loud crowd in Tallahassee for someone not named Duke...kind of a retro Metro Conference game.
    Scary second half from Florida St. Not at all confidant Duke would have beaten them in Tallahassee. Or did Louisville just peak too soon?

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    How can the cheats be ranked higher in Kenpom than VT, Pitt, Wake, Miami and BC? The only team on that list they beat was a totally depleted Miami. Pitt beat them twice for god sake. They’re 4-16 since their early season win over Oregon. And as we all know they’re leading the ACC in losses. Kenpom’s model is broken.
    I'm not really sure if you're being serious, but it's not hard to realize that (1) UNC has lost a lot of games, but more than a few of them have been of the close, deliciously heartbreaking variety, and (2) therefore, they fare better in rankings like KenPom than straight win-loss records would suggest.

    The only things broken I see are Tar Heel hearts, and that's just fine by me.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by SCMatt33 View Post
    Pretty simple math for Duke. Win out and get the 1 seed. Any less probably leaves you as the 2 or 3 as you need both FSU and Louisville to lose again to get the 1 with a loss, and Louisville has only one realistically lose able game left and they get a bye heading into it
    I think FSU could easily lose @Clemson or @ND. Here's how much home floor counts for. Per KenPom, FSU's winning percentage for these 3 games is about the same:

    Louisville - 56% to win, prediction 70-69
    @Clemson - 57% to win, prediction 66-64
    @ND - 56% to win, prediction 73-71

    Even after factoring in today's blowout win vs Louisville, they'll still definitely only be 3 or 4pt favorites in those games.

    Louisville will end their regular season @UVA, where they will also likely be a small favorite.

    Easy to envision a scenario where they both drop one more before everybody heads to Greensboro for the ACCT.

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by Hingeknocker View Post
    I'm not really sure if you're being serious, but it's not hard to realize that (1) UNC has lost a lot of games, but more than a few of them have been of the close, deliciously heartbreaking variety, and (2) therefore, they fare better in rankings like KenPom than straight win-loss records would suggest.

    The only things broken I see are Tar Heel hearts, and that's just fine by me.
    Yeah, KenPom doesn’t care about wins and losses. Just per possession efficiency type stuff.

    -jk

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by howardlander View Post
    Scary second half from Florida St. Not at all confidant Duke would have beaten them in Tallahassee. Or did Louisville just peak too soon?
    FSU was good, but once Louisville went cold from 3 in the 2nd half, they kind of quit defensively. They were getting abused off the bounce and Mack waited waaaaay too long to go to the zone. By the time he did, FSU was absolutely rolling and there was no slowing that train down.

    Louisville is like a TON of teams - when they're hitting 3s, they're fantastic. When they're not, they're very beatable. Fortunately for them, they have a lot of very good shooters so those nights where they DON'T hit are few and far between.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    Louisville is like a TON of teams - when they're hitting 3s, they're fantastic. When they're not, they're very beatable. Fortunately for them, they have a lot of very good shooters so those nights where they DON'T hit are few and far between.
    Well they have lost 3 of their last 5, so it's been fairly frequent lately.

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Great Falls Va + Avalon NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    9.f) They were looking past the lowly heels to the crucial matchup against the mighty (and well-coached) Pitt Panthers!
    Couldn’t spork you but 9f is always the right answer!

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    High Point
    One book had Louisville -12.5, and it went to -13.5. Don't know whether it was human error. It got corrected quickly. Look at Stations.

    https://www.vegasinsider.com/college.../date/02-24-20

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by WakeDevil View Post
    One book had Louisville -12.5, and it went to -13.5. Don't know whether it was human error. It got corrected quickly. Look at Stations.

    https://www.vegasinsider.com/college.../date/02-24-20
    That has to have been a reporting error. No way they actually set their line and took bets at those numbers. Maybe they added a 1 so it should have been Louisville -2, though even that seems a good bit off.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    After the debacle at PNC we have been granted a reprieve. The path to the number 1 seed in the ACCT is there for the taking. More Virginia Tech less NC State, please.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post
    Nope, not falling for that. Nice try.
    The Hoos are at a sneaky 11-5 record. That's not a team to take lightly.
    Your team is playing much better over the last month.
    All due respect to Duke, its program and its fans, but you will NOT out-reverse-jinx us. You don't know what you're up against.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by DarkstarWahoo View Post
    All due respect to Duke, its program and its fans, but you will NOT out-reverse-jinx us. You don't know what you're up against.
    ...yeah, maybe, but our specialty in this is football....we lead the planet historically...

  20. #40
    State now HAS to beat Duke and probably make a run in the tourney to get in. Great.

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