This Week in the ACC - 2/24-3/1

[pfrduke]

Huge matchup for regular season crown stakes down in Tallahassee tonight, plus the rest of the week's slate. Also, in the continued march toward mediocrity, here we are with two weeks to play and only 4 teams in the conference have a winning record.

Monday
[21]Florida State (13-3) (-1) hosts [9]Louisville (14-3) (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday
[103]Wake Forest (4-12) (+10) hosts [4]Duke (13-3) (7:00, ACCN)
[91]North Carolina (3-13) (+1) hosts [50]NC State (8-8) (9:00, ESPN)
[77]Georgia Tech (7-9) (-2) hosts [63]Clemson (8-8) (9:00, ACCN)

Wednesday
[99]Virginia Tech (6-10) (+1) hosts [48]Virginia (11-5) (7:00, ESPN2)
[102]Pittsburgh (6-11) (-1) hosts [59]Syracuse (8-8) (7:00, ACCN)
[56]Notre Dame (8-8) (-5) hosts [176]Boston College (7-10) (9:00, ACCN)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday
[50]NC State (8-8) (-7) hosts [102]Pittsburgh (6-11) (12:00, ACCN)
[63]Clemson (8-8) (+2) hosts [21]Florida State (13-3) (2:00, ACCNX)
[59]Syracuse (8-8) (-7) hosts [91]North Carolina (3-13) (4:00, ESPN)
[103]Wake Forest (4-12) (+1) hosts [56]Notre Dame (8-8) (4:00, ACCNX)
[48]Virginia (11-5) (+5) hosts [4]Duke (13-3) (6:00, ESPN)
[77]Georgia Tech (7-9) (-6) hosts [105]Miami (6-11) (8:00, ACCN)

Sunday
[9]Louisville (14-3) (-13) hosts [99]Virginia Tech (6-10) (6:00, ACCN)

ACC Non-Conference: 119-41
ACC vs. Power 5: 23-26

Efficiency Margin in Conference Play:
Duke - +18.3
Louisville - +12.5
Florida State - +9.9
Virginia - +6.0
Syracuse - +2.5
NC State - +0.6
Clemson - +0.0
Notre Dame - -0.5
Georgia Tech - -1.9
North Carolina - -4.5
Wake Forest - -5.9
Pittsburgh - -6.4
Virginia Tech - -6.7
Miami - -9.1
Boston College - -13.6

[sagegrouse]

Two on the road for Duke this week, and we are favored by five points at Virginia. (Ten at Wake.)

[scottdude8]

A couple of minor ACC developments that have gone under the radar recently:

1) Clemson has climbed up the NET rankings, and find themselves in the Top 75. That makes our loss to them look not nearly as bad (it's a Q1 loss). It also underlies the fact that they could provide FSU some trouble come Saturday, which is another reason to root for the 'Noles tonight... I think it's much more likely that they falter one more time in the regular season than Louisville, based on scheduling.

2) Georgia Tech is nearly into the Top 75 of the NET as well. If they keep winning, they could also serve as a Q1 win for Duke... and both games this week are very winnable for the Yellowjackets.

[OldPhiKap]

As always, a big thanks to pfrduke for putting these together.

If State really is one of the last teams in the tourney (per Lunardi for example) they have to beat Carolina. But we know that they won't.

Virginia dancing on the knife's blade too but a bit more comfortably -- but have a rivalry game in Blacksburg before the chance for a signature win if they can knock us off.

FSU - Louisville tonight seems to be the game of the week from an objective perspective. I guess from the conference #1 seed perspective we want FSU, but from an NCAA seeding perspective we may want Louisville? Not sure for whom to root.

[scottdude8]

As always, a big thanks to pfrduke for putting these together.

If State really is one of the last teams in the tourney (per Lunardi for example) they have to beat Carolina. But we know that they won't.

Virginia dancing on the knife's blade too but a bit more comfortably -- but have a rivalry game in Blacksburg before the chance for a signature win if they can knock us off.

FSU - Louisville tonight seems to be the game of the week from an objective perspective. I guess from the conference #1 seed perspective we want FSU, but from an NCAA seeding perspective we may want Louisville? Not sure for whom to root.

I think you also want to root for the 'Noles from a NCAA Tourney seeding perspective. Louisville is one spot behind us in the NET, while FSU is at No. 12, thanks largely to a dismal non-con SOS (122). Combine that with the fact that we beat FSU, and I think we'd rather have our resume compared to the 'Noles than the Cards come Selection Sunday.

[OldPhiKap]

I think you also want to root for the 'Noles from a NCAA Tourney seeding perspective. Louisville is one spot behind us in the NET, while FSU is at No. 12, thanks largely to a dismal non-con SOS (122). Combine that with the fact that we beat FSU, and I think we'd rather have our resume compared to the 'Noles than the Cards come Selection Sunday.

Thanks, I was just looking at the AP which has us slightly behind FSU but a working margin ahead of the Ville.

My defaults generally are to root for FSU (PopPK went there) and also to root against Louisville ('86 -- ugh). So I can subscribe to your analysis guilt-free.

[jv001]

I think you also want to root for the 'Noles from a NCAA Tourney seeding perspective. Louisville is one spot behind us in the NET, while FSU is at No. 12, thanks largely to a dismal non-con SOS (122). Combine that with the fact that we beat FSU, and I think we'd rather have our resume compared to the 'Noles than the Cards come Selection Sunday.

T-Rank and Ken-Pom don't like the Noles as much as the AP. Both T-Rank and Ken-Pom have the Noles at #21. They like L-ville better. K-Pom has them at #9 and T-Rank has them at #13. As for Duke both have the Blue Devils at #4.

GoDuke!

[BD80]

In honor of hoping with every fiber of my being that NC State wins in Chapel Hill this week, I decided I would try to find something nice to say about UNC. And I think I've found it!

Per KenPom, UNC is - by quite a large margin - the best 17-loss team in the country! With UNC at #91, you have to go all the way down to #167 Old Dominon to find the next best 17-loss team. In a hypothetical, neutral-site matchup, UNC would be favored by around 7 points against ODU. Something to be proud of!

UNC is also the best ACC team to have an overall losing record at home.

ol' roy is the best bus driver among those who have run over more than 100 young adults* …


*not in a single press conference, that would be silly; never more than 15 at a time.

[Tripping William]

A

If State really is one of the last teams in the tourney (per Lunardi for example) they have to beat Carolina. But we know that they won't.

Yep. State winning in Chapel Hill is about as likely as Clemson winning in Chapel Hill.

[devildeac]

Multiple choice test-mark all that apply:

State will lose tomorrow night at the Myth Center because:

a) the refs cheated them
b) they shoot <30% FG
c) the refs cheated them some more
d) they shoot <25% 3FG
e) the refs cheated them unbelievably
f) they had >20 TO
g) roy ran over them with his own bus
h) just because
i) (write in your own answer)

[OldPhiKap]

Multiple choice test-mark all that apply:

State will lose tomorrow night at the Myth Center because:

a) the refs cheated them
b) they shoot <30% FG
c) the refs cheated them some more
d) they shoot <25% 3FG
e) the refs cheated them unbelievably
f) they had >20 TO
g) roy ran over them with his own bus
h) just because
i) (write in your own answer)

i) a-h combined.

[BD80]

Multiple choice test-mark all that apply:

State will lose tomorrow night at the Myth Center because:

a) the refs cheated them
b) they shoot <30% FG
c) the refs cheated them some more
d) they shoot <25% 3FG
e) the refs cheated them unbelievably
f) they had >20 TO
g) roy ran over them with his own bus
h) just because
i) (write in your own answer)

9.f) They were looking past the lowly heels to the crucial matchup against the mighty (and well-coached) Pitt Panthers!

[Hingeknocker]

In honor of hoping with every fiber of my being that NC State wins in Chapel Hill this week, I decided I would try to find something nice to say about UNC. And I think I've found it!

Per KenPom, UNC is - by quite a large margin - the best 17-loss team in the country! With UNC at #91, you have to go all the way down to #167 Old Dominon to find the next best 17-loss team. In a hypothetical, neutral-site matchup, UNC would be favored by around 7 points against ODU. Something to be proud of!

[OldPhiKap]

In honor of hoping with every fiber of my being that NC State wins in Chapel Hill this week, I decided I would try to find something nice to say about UNC. And I think I've found it!

Per KenPom, UNC is - by quite a large margin - the best 17-loss team in the country! With UNC at #91, you have to go all the way down to #167 Old Dominon to find the next best 17-loss team. In a hypothetical, neutral-site matchup, UNC would be favored by around 7 points against ODU. Something to be proud of!

UNC is also the best ACC team to have an overall losing record at home.

[SCMatt33]

UNC is also the best ACC team to have an overall losing record at home.

UNC is also the best last-placed team in the ACC! They’re also the worst, but you gotta have a positive outlook.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

In honor of hoping with every fiber of my being that NC State wins in Chapel Hill this week, I decided I would try to find something nice to say about UNC. And I think I've found it!

Per KenPom, UNC is - by quite a large margin - the best 17-loss team in the country! With UNC at #91, you have to go all the way down to #167 Old Dominon to find the next best 17-loss team. In a hypothetical, neutral-site matchup, UNC would be favored by around 7 points against ODU. Something to be proud of!

How can the cheats be ranked higher in Kenpom than VT, Pitt, Wake, Miami and BC? The only team on that list they beat was a totally depleted Miami. Pitt beat them twice for god sake. They’re 4-16 since their early season win over Oregon. And as we all know they’re leading the ACC in losses. Kenpom’s model is broken.

[DU82]

How can the cheats be ranked higher in Kenpom than VT, Pitt, Wake, Miami and BC? The only team on that list they beat was a totally depleted Miami. Pitt beat them twice for god sake. They’re 4-16 since their early season win over Oregon. And as we all know they’re leading the ACC in losses. Kenpom’s model is broken.

Ken was required to include fraternity students in his calculations for the cheats.

[Hingeknocker]

How can the cheats be ranked higher in Kenpom than VT, Pitt, Wake, Miami and BC? The only team on that list they beat was a totally depleted Miami. Pitt beat them twice for god sake. They’re 4-16 since their early season win over Oregon. And as we all know they’re leading the ACC in losses. Kenpom’s model is broken.

I'm not really sure if you're being serious, but it's not hard to realize that (1) UNC has lost a lot of games, but more than a few of them have been of the close, deliciously heartbreaking variety, and (2) therefore, they fare better in rankings like KenPom than straight win-loss records would suggest.

The only things broken I see are Tar Heel hearts, and that's just fine by me.

[-jk]

I'm not really sure if you're being serious, but it's not hard to realize that (1) UNC has lost a lot of games, but more than a few of them have been of the close, deliciously heartbreaking variety, and (2) therefore, they fare better in rankings like KenPom than straight win-loss records would suggest.

The only things broken I see are Tar Heel hearts, and that's just fine by me.

Yeah, KenPom doesn’t care about wins and losses. Just per possession efficiency type stuff.

-jk

[Utley]

9.f) They were looking past the lowly heels to the crucial matchup against the mighty (and well-coached) Pitt Panthers!

Couldn’t spork you but 9f is always the right answer!