MBB: Duke 88, Va Tech 64 Post-Game Thread

[ncexnyc]

I won't say thin ice, but our game AT Wake Forest Tuesday will be very difficult to win I believe. Do not underestimate just how hostile the Winston-Salem Wake fans are toward Duke. I don't understand it. But I've seen it, and seen it recently. We need to bring our A+ game and expect an all-out War. If not we could be looking at another NC State level beat-down on the road. Louisville and FSU have an obvious tough next test. But so do we. Expect nothing like the game in Cameron when they played without Brown.

Let's Go Duke! Get that Dub

Great points, especially the one about Brown. A lot of people look at final scores, but don't go deeper and understand how those outcomes came to be. Brown's a very good player and his absence in the first game enabled us to focus on Childress.

[sagegrouse]

No Man of the Match poll?

Cassius wants to know.

[-jk]

No Man of the Match poll?

Start one!

-jk

[Music man55]

Great start out of the gate and reaped some very good benefits from it. I like the four around one offense. Spreads out the floor, gives Vernon more space to either kick out or post move toward the basket.Cassius and Tre started the barrage of threes and then Matt came off the bench and played his best all around game this season.Coach K really got their attention after the State game.I'll bet they don't come out of the locker room lackadaisical any more.

[Tooold]

Also thought Vernon did a good job of passing out of those double teams instead of charging ahead against them. This is a key to our season in my opinion as it can really open up the offense and give our 3 point shooters some good looks from 3.

Vernon said (in his post game interview, I believe) that they worked on this in practice. The coaches specifically told him that he would not be able to shoot the first time he got the ball in the paint because of the double team...that he would need to pass back out, and when they passed it back to him he would have a good shooting option.

I guess our guys pay attention to what they are told in practice (as opposed to a team down the road, who, daggumit, cannot remember to do the things they were taught in practice).

[DU82]

Something not mentioned here, I believe, but was said on the post-game radio, we have clinched a double-bye in the ACC tournament.

[du_bb1]

I agree with the comment on Hurt. Believe the end of the FSU was his coming out. Since then he has played with more physicality and is attacking the basket much stronger-and rebounds. Just keep progressing !

[roywhite]

Something not mentioned here, I believe, but was said on the post-game radio, we have clinched a double-bye in the ACC tournament.

Meanwhile, Tuesday basketball in Greensboro will feature the Tar Heels.

[Indoor66]

Start one!

-jk

Don't know how.

[hustleplays]

While I don't wish to anger the weauf gods, and I agree we can't overlook any opponent, a road game at State and a road game at Wake are not nearly the same thing. For example, since (and including) 2010, our record @NCSU is 2-5 and our record @Wake is 8-1. For another thing, NCSU is rated #51 by Pomeroy and Wake is rated #104. In fact, Pomeroy currently ranks Wake Forest as the 14th best team in the ACC. Even if we only bring our C+ game, I'd be shocked if we were looking at anything close to "another NC State level beat-down."

Kedsy, I sincerely want to better understand your reasoning and perspective.

You cite our very disparate away game records between NCSU and Wake. You note NCSU and Wake's disparate Pomeroy ratings. Given those stats, you state that you would be shocked if we would experience anything close to a NCSU level beat-down, even if we brought our C+ game.

I have several questions: Would you be shocked if Wake gave us a very close game, maybe even beating us?

Of the two sets of stats, our road record against these two opponents and their own divergent Pomeroy ratings, which is more predictive, in your view?

I'm thinking of our games against UNC. I don't know our record against them in Chapel Hill, but it probably isn't too lop-sided either way. Our respective Pomeroy ratings are quite different this year. I don't imagine that you were shocked by the taut contest recently at the Dean Dome.

Does the different level of rival intensity [between us and Wake vs. us and UNC] figure into your own expectations?

Thank you for your explanation and your continuous stat edification!

[Kedsy]

Kedsy, I sincerely want to better understand your reasoning and perspective.

You cite our very disparate away game records between NCSU and Wake. You note NCSU and Wake's disparate Pomeroy ratings. Given those stats, you state that you would be shocked if we would experience anything close to a NCSU level beat-down, even if we brought our C+ game.

I have several questions: Would you be shocked if Wake gave us a very close game, maybe even beating us?

I'm never shocked if an ACC road game ends up a tight game. I'm rarely completely surprised if we lose a close ACC road game. But double-digit beatdown Duke losses are very rare, and seem to happen more often at State than elsewhere. (Though the past few years we have also had trouble at Clemson and at Virginia Tech, though neither at the level of Wednesday's loss, other than Clemson's 74-47 win over us in 2009.)

Of the two sets of stats, our road record against these two opponents and their own divergent Pomeroy ratings, which is more predictive, in your view?

The teams' relative rating is more predictive. Against a team of this year's Wake team's caliber, even a not-so-good performance by a team of this year's Duke team's caliber is usually enough to win a close game (see this year's pedestrian road performance at Georgia Tech, a team rated a fair amount higher than Wake Forest, which ended in a 9-point Duke win). A good performance by Duke should mean a not-so-close game (see our road game at Miami, a team rated about the same at Wake, which ended as a 30+ point Duke blowout win). With Wake's team strength, Wake would have to play one of their best games of the season to hang close with Duke and/or Duke would have to put up a real stinker. And sure, that might happen. But again, that would lead to a close game, not a State-level blowout with Wake on top.

I'm thinking of our games against UNC. I don't know our record against them in Chapel Hill, but it probably isn't too lop-sided either way. Our respective Pomeroy ratings are quite different this year. I don't imagine that you were shocked by the taut contest recently at the Dean Dome.

During Coach K's time at Duke, when either Duke or UNC is top 10 and the other is unranked, the better team has a record of 19-4 (9-1 at home; 9-3 on the road; 1-0 in ACCT). Sure, a lot of times the games are closer than you'd expect given the talent disparity, but the better team almost always wins. Which is what happened in Chapel Hill (admittedly much more of a nail biter than I expected) and what will likely happen in Durham.

Does the different level of rival intensity [between us and Wake vs. us and UNC] figure into your own expectations?

Thank you for your explanation and your continuous stat edification!

Perhaps. Certainly, Duke and UNC play with more energy when they meet than Duke and Wake Forest. The Duke and UNC players have also seemed to buy into the idea that "anything can happen" in a Duke/UNC game, and that sort of thing is often a self-fulfilling prophecy. I doubt Duke and Wake Forest players believe any such superstitions about the Duke/Wake series.

[hustleplays]

I'm never shocked if an ACC road game ends up a tight game. I'm rarely completely surprised if we lose a close ACC road game. But double-digit beatdown Duke losses are very rare, and seem to happen more often at State than elsewhere. (Though the past few years we have also had trouble at Clemson and at Virginia Tech, though neither at the level of Wednesday's loss, other than Clemson's 74-47 win over us in 2009.)



The teams' relative rating is more predictive. Against a team of this year's Wake team's caliber, even a not-so-good performance by a team of this year's Duke team's caliber is usually enough to win a close game (see this year's pedestrian road performance at Georgia Tech, a team rated a fair amount higher than Wake Forest, which ended in a 9-point Duke win). A good performance by Duke should mean a not-so-close game (see our road game at Miami, a team rated about the same at Wake, which ended as a 30+ point Duke blowout win). With Wake's team strength, Wake would have to play one of their best games of the season to hang close with Duke and/or Duke would have to put up a real stinker. And sure, that might happen. But again, that would lead to a close game, not a State-level blowout with Wake on top.



During Coach K's time at Duke, when either Duke or UNC is top 10 and the other is unranked, the better team has a record of 19-4 (9-1 at home; 9-3 on the road; 1-0 in ACCT). Sure, a lot of times the games are closer than you'd expect given the talent disparity, but the better team almost always wins. Which is what happened in Chapel Hill (admittedly much more of a nail biter than I expected) and what will likely happen in Durham.



Perhaps. Certainly, Duke and UNC play with more energy when they meet than Duke and Wake Forest. The Duke and UNC players have also seemed to buy into the idea that "anything can happen" in a Duke/UNC game, and that sort of thing is often a self-fulfilling prophecy. I doubt Duke and Wake Forest players believe any such superstitions about the Duke/Wake series.

Thanks very much for taking the time to answer my questions.

Very interesting stats, including the Duke/UNC stats when one team is ranked, the other not. Tre and Wendell sure did their their best to ensure that the better team almost always wins.

Do you think that our relatively paltry record at the PNC Arena is an anomaly, a result of a too small sample size?

[Kedsy]

Do you think that our relatively paltry record at the PNC Arena is an anomaly, a result of a too small sample size?

I don't know. It may be an anomaly, or it may be at least in part due to NC State getting all riled up to face us (as if we're a big rival) but us not getting particularly excited to play them (not viewing them as a big rival). Also, once they won a few against Duke they probably felt more confident, which can only help them play well against us the next time.

Or it could be that State has not been as bad as we think. Our five losses @NCSU came in seasons in which the Wolfpack was rated (by Pomeroy) as #50, #46, #32, #33, and #69. During that same time period, Wake Forest was only ranked inside the top 100 twice, and only once (2017) were they rated better than NC State's worst rating listed above.

[Tripping William]

I won't say thin ice, but our game AT Wake Forest Tuesday will be very difficult to win I believe. Do not underestimate just how hostile the Winston-Salem Wake fans are toward Duke. I don't understand it. But I've seen it, and seen it recently. We need to bring our A+ game and expect an all-out War. If not we could be looking at another NC State level beat-down on the road. Louisville and FSU have an obvious tough next test. But so do we. Expect nothing like the game in Cameron when they played without Brown.

Let's Go Duke! Get that Dub

Yep, all 12 of them.

[hustleplays]

Give K a few more years and he may develop into a decent coach

Dukelifer, let's not get carried away here. Let's see if K can notch some more wins and maybe another Natty or two before we jump to that conclusion. We need to see some sustained excellence.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yep, all 12 of them.

The true question is whether Wake fans will be more hostile towards Duke or towards Manning?

I get if Tim Duncan was the coach at Wake, had a terrible record like Manning, and was still the coach. But Manning isn't a Wake grad! In an era where we have plenty of impatience regarding coaches, Manning seems to have gone the other way where we have too much patience and it's clearly not going to get any better.

[UrinalCake]

The true question is whether Wake fans will be more hostile towards Duke or towards Manning?

I almost wonder if Wake fans will be rooting for a Duke win. A Wake win could save Manning’s job for another season.

[sagegrouse]

I almost wonder if Wake fans will be rooting for a Duke win. A Wake win could save Manning’s job for another season.

Along that line of thinking, I would like to give credit to ALL the members of DBR for not grousing about Duke women's basketball winning a bunch of games and -- perhaps -- saving the job of the controversial Joanne P. McCallie. I mean, we should always want Duke to win -- right?

[uh_no]

Along that line of thinking, I would like to give credit to ALL the members of DBR for not grousing about Duke women's basketball winning a bunch of games and -- perhaps -- saving the job of the controversial Joanne P. McCallie. I mean, we should always want Duke to win -- right?

If this run saves Coach P's job, I'll be very disappointed in Dr. White. I'm happy for our team, and rooting for them to take down whatever goliath they end up paired with in the tournament, and if the success of this team means a non-optimal outcome down the road...so be it.

[mkirsh]

I'm a little late to the party on comments about the game, but the yo-yoing of the last week ("we are going to with the NC!" after ND to "first weekend loss!" after NC State and then back again after VT) got me thinking about home and away performance. With apologies for Kedsy about stepping onto their data turf, I looked at home vs away performance for the past few years, and found out that this team has a MUCH larger home/road split on both offensive and defensive efficiency vs any other team in the last 6 years.

	Adj O (H)	Adj O (A)	Adj O Diff	Adj D (H)	Adj D (A)	Adj D Diff	Total Diff
2020	119.2	110.8	8.4	85.4	95.7	10.3	18.7
2019	111.3	124.6	-13.3	88.9	92.5	3.6	-9.7
2018	118.3	121.1	-2.8	87.6	94.7	7.1	4.3
2017	125.6	118.5	7.2	97.6	97.7	0.0	7.2
2016	119.9	120.8	-0.9	96.2	101.2	5.0	4.2
2015	126.1	125.7	0.5	90.5	98.9	8.4	8.9

(Data notes: ACC games only. Source = Torvik data. Did not weight the games for # of possessions, just averaged each game (because I'm lazy)).

Some of this is due to unbalanced schedules, injuries, etc, but I thought it was interesting to look at. Generally we think of home court impacting offense (familiar shooting backgrounds, home rims, etc), but only 2 of our last 6 teams were more efficient at home, and last year's team was much worse at home (even if you take out the last 6 games without Zion, the -13 goes to -11) - I guess they took the "we wear black on the road because it's your funeral" thing seriously. That said, Duke is almost always better defensively at home, whether due to the crowd, more rest from not travelling, home officiating, or whatever. This year's team has the biggest splits of the sample, which matches they eye test of what we've seen all year, but I thought it was interesting to see it relative to recent "one and done" laden teams.