The all-important context for last night's loss

[kako]

The point: judging this team, or any team, based on one result, no matter how onerous, is a mistake. Every successful Duke team, and most National Champions more generally, have had bad losses at some point during the season. We're all human, and prone to recency bias. But this is the same team this morning as it was 24 hours ago, before an outlier poor performance.

Whether or not this team makes it to the Final Four or gets upset won't be dictated by one game. Should we adjust our expectations and recognize some important flaws that were revealed last night? Of course. But one game does not make the season.

Let's all take a deep breath and focus on winning the ACC.

As is generally felt, the reason Duke lost last night was that they did not come to play. It's the current flaw for this team, and it has shown up in more than just the State game. BC, Syracuse, Carolina, Clemson, etc. It doesn't matter if Duke won those games or not. They didn't come out hungry with a killer instinct. They have this ability, as seen just last weekend. But it's inconsistent. My own personal feeling is that this team starts to believe the hype, rest on its laurels and feel that the D-U-K-E on their jerseys will win the game alone. Of course it's absolutely not true and won't work.

On Duke's championship teams, there has always been a leader (or leaders) that remain focused and keep the team focused. Sure, losses happen, both by a point and by double digits. But it's one thing to have a bad shooting night, have a few bounces go the wrong way, get into foul trouble, etc. It's totally another to just not show up. Leaders keep the team on its toes, keep the fire burning, and won't accept just going through the motions. And right now, I think that's the problem. Jones is the leader on the court, but that's not how games are won or lost. It's everything else leading up to the game. Who is the leader of this team in the locker room, in the film room, in practice and on the sideline? Who is in the dorms keeping the team focused? Who is keeping the fire burning? Duke has the talent to win it all, but it will be pure luck if they do so without strong leadership.

K used to say that his teams always need a M-----F-----r, someone to keep those fires burning at all times. Coaches can only do so much, even legends like K. Laettner, Wojo, Battier, the Singler/Smith/Scheyer combo, Cook - they all had this role and did it well. Even guys on non-national championship teams like Meagher, Redick, the Plumlees, Allen... there were flaws, but in my mind's eye, they had that fire. I'm not sure who on this team is that guy. It's tough because the upperclassmen are role players at best. The team defers to Jones due to his status on the court... but for all his skills, he seems soft-spoken. His brother had Cook behind him, encouraging, pushing, because Cook wanted that banner. Jones has no Cook behind him that I can see. And though Carey is IMO the best player, he also seems like a gentle giant at times, and he's a freshman.

If someone on this team can seize this role, regardless of playing status, I think Duke can work through its other issues and challenge for all 3 championships (reg season, ACC, NCAA). I'm not in the locker room, in the dorms, etc. so I'm not going to venture who that would/should be. But someone needs to. This sleepwalking into games has to stop. The OP says taking a deep breath and focusing on winning the ACC is needed. I say sure, but IMO the team needs its M-----F----r, and they need it now.

9F

[CDu]

This 22-point loss at NCSU is almost certainly a "better" loss than our 16-point loss at home to Miami in 2015, for example, so why would we treat it as something worse?

For what it is worth, Bart Torvik disagrees. This loss was substantially worse performance than the 2015 loss to Miami. It was the worst loss we've had since 2009 (@Clemson).

[fuse]

Since apparently my willpower is so low and I no longer resist.

The only important context is the loss last night effectively ends the debate about a one seed for Duke.

[jv001]

As is generally felt, the reason Duke lost last night was that they did not come to play. It's the current flaw for this team, and it has shown up in more than just the State game. BC, Syracuse, Carolina, Clemson, etc. It doesn't matter if Duke won those games or not. They didn't come out hungry with a killer instinct. They have this ability, as seen just last weekend. But it's inconsistent. My own personal feeling is that this team starts to believe the hype, rest on its laurels and feel that the D-U-K-E on their jerseys will win the game alone. Of course it's absolutely not true and won't work.

On Duke's championship teams, there has always been a leader (or leaders) that remain focused and keep the team focused. Sure, losses happen, both by a point and by double digits. But it's one thing to have a bad shooting night, have a few bounces go the wrong way, get into foul trouble, etc. It's totally another to just not show up. Leaders keep the team on its toes, keep the fire burning, and won't accept just going through the motions. And right now, I think that's the problem. Jones is the leader on the court, but that's not how games are won or lost. It's everything else leading up to the game. Who is the leader of this team in the locker room, in the film room, in practice and on the sideline? Who is in the dorms keeping the team focused? Who is keeping the fire burning? Duke has the talent to win it all, but it will be pure luck if they do so without strong leadership.

K used to say that his teams always need a M-----F-----r, someone to keep those fires burning at all times. Coaches can only do so much, even legends like K. Laettner, Wojo, Battier, the Singler/Smith/Scheyer combo, Cook - they all had this role and did it well. Even guys on non-national championship teams like Meagher, Redick, the Plumlees, Allen... there were flaws, but in my mind's eye, they had that fire. I'm not sure who on this team is that guy. It's tough because the upperclassmen are role players at best. The team defers to Jones due to his status on the court... but for all his skills, he seems soft-spoken. His brother had Cook behind him, encouraging, pushing, because Cook wanted that banner. Jones has no Cook behind him that I can see. And though Carey is IMO the best player, he also seems like a gentle giant at times, and he's a freshman.

If someone on this team can seize this role, regardless of playing status, I think Duke can work through its other issues and challenge for all 3 championships (reg season, ACC, NCAA). I'm not in the locker room, in the dorms, etc. so I'm not going to venture who that would/should be. But someone needs to. This sleepwalking into games has to stop. The OP says taking a deep breath and focusing on winning the ACC is needed. I say sure, but IMO the team needs its M-----F----r, and they need it now.

9F

I wish Baker was playing well enough to grab those minutes because he seems to have the attitude you're talking about. Tre is just too quiet to be the guy. Vernon is too quiet. Javin doesn't play enough or well enough to be the guy. Neither is Jack. It's usually a seasoned player that backs up the talk with the walk. I don't see one on this team. GoDuke!

[Saratoga2]

As is generally felt, the reason Duke lost last night was that they did not come to play. It's the current flaw for this team, and it has shown up in more than just the State game. BC, Syracuse, Carolina, Clemson, etc. It doesn't matter if Duke won those games or not. They didn't come out hungry with a killer instinct. They have this ability, as seen just last weekend. But it's inconsistent. My own personal feeling is that this team starts to believe the hype, rest on its laurels and feel that the D-U-K-E on their jerseys will win the game alone. Of course it's absolutely not true and won't work.

On Duke's championship teams, there has always been a leader (or leaders) that remain focused and keep the team focused. Sure, losses happen, both by a point and by double digits. But it's one thing to have a bad shooting night, have a few bounces go the wrong way, get into foul trouble, etc. It's totally another to just not show up. Leaders keep the team on its toes, keep the fire burning, and won't accept just going through the motions. And right now, I think that's the problem. Jones is the leader on the court, but that's not how games are won or lost. It's everything else leading up to the game. Who is the leader of this team in the locker room, in the film room, in practice and on the sideline? Who is in the dorms keeping the team focused? Who is keeping the fire burning? Duke has the talent to win it all, but it will be pure luck if they do so without strong leadership.

K used to say that his teams always need a M-----F-----r, someone to keep those fires burning at all times. Coaches can only do so much, even legends like K. Laettner, Wojo, Battier, the Singler/Smith/Scheyer combo, Cook - they all had this role and did it well. Even guys on non-national championship teams like Meagher, Redick, the Plumlees, Allen... there were flaws, but in my mind's eye, they had that fire. I'm not sure who on this team is that guy. It's tough because the upperclassmen are role players at best. The team defers to Jones due to his status on the court... but for all his skills, he seems soft-spoken. His brother had Cook behind him, encouraging, pushing, because Cook wanted that banner. Jones has no Cook behind him that I can see. And though Carey is IMO the best player, he also seems like a gentle giant at times, and he's a freshman.

If someone on this team can seize this role, regardless of playing status, I think Duke can work through its other issues and challenge for all 3 championships (reg season, ACC, NCAA). I'm not in the locker room, in the dorms, etc. so I'm not going to venture who that would/should be. But someone needs to. This sleepwalking into games has to stop. The OP says taking a deep breath and focusing on winning the ACC is needed. I say sure, but IMO the team needs its M-----F----r, and they need it now.

9F

So what is coach K doing to correct some of the deficiencies we have been talking about? Other teams will watch rebroadast of this and other games and see how to make Duke look bad. So what changes in the rotation, defensive and offensive approaches will he institute? I will be interested in something other than saying the guys didn't want it enough.

[scottdude8]

Since apparently my willpower is so low and I no longer resist.

The only important context is the loss last night effectively ends the debate about a one seed for Duke.

You're very justified in making that statement! I would add the qualifier that it ends the debate if nothing unusual happens, but we've seen how unusual of a season this is. If Gonzaga wins out, SDSU wins out, and Kansas only loses to Baylor the rest of the way, Duke probably can't get a 1 seed (their resume certainly wasn't helped by Georgetown and Va Tech losing last night, as they both fell out of Q1 territory). But if Kansas falters, say in a rivalry game against Kansas State or early in the Big 12 tournament, that opens the debate back up (I'm not saying that it would be enough for Duke to get a 1 seed, just that there would be legitimate debate). You could potentially argue the same if Gonzaga loses again. If SDSU loses I can't imagine the NCAA giving them a top seed just to save face, in which case everything is back up for grabs. So I think the more accurate statement is that we no longer "control our own destiny" for a one seed.

I wish Baker was playing well enough to grab those minutes because he seems to have the attitude you're talking about. Tre is just too quiet to be the guy. Vernon is too quiet. Javin doesn't play enough or well enough to be the guy. Neither is Jack. It's usually a seasoned player that backs up the talk with the walk. I don't see one on this team. GoDuke!

Up until about two weeks ago I really thought Jack could be that guy. He plays with fire and toughness, despite his limitations, and is a senior leader. But something seems to have happened behind the scenes that have led to a drastic reduction in his PT, making it hard for him to claim that role.

I will say this: back in 2010 no one (except me!) ever thought Brian Zoubek would be the guy to bring toughness and physicality to a Duke team. But he was inserted into the starting lineup against Maryland, spontaneously evolved from Zoubek into Zoubeast, and the rest is history. It wouldn't shock me if we see Coach K make some significant lineup changes on Saturday to try to light a fire under some guys. Maybe it's getting Jack back in the starting lineup, maybe it's putting Joey in and telling him to do nothing but annoy the heck out of the opposition for brief bursts on the floor, maybe it's refocusing JG on being a defensive nightmare for the opposition (I love Jordan as much as anyone, but it was clear he was trying to force some things offensively last night). I would bet that K is going to try something to find that guy starting on Saturday, and whomever claims that role will also claim a lot of PT down the stretch.

[CDu]

So I think the more accurate statement is that we no longer "control our own destiny" for a one seed.

I think this is a very fair way to put it. I would put our chances of getting that 1 seed as slim. But not impossible. And as you said, just winning out isn't going to be enough to get it (whereas I think winning out would have been enough prior to last night).

Up until about two weeks ago I really thought Jack could be that guy. He plays with fire and toughness, despite his limitations, and is a senior leader. But something seems to have happened behind the scenes that have led to a drastic reduction in his PT, making it hard for him to claim that role.

I think it was the return of Moore, and trying to get him more time at PF. And I think Moore's performance as a pseudo big in the UNC game was a big part of it. White was playing PF, and with Hurt and Moore taking more time at PF that meant less time for White.

I think Coach K sees the limitations of this squad, and is trying to play the long game. We probably need Moore to become that dynamic combo forward who can create matchup problems for opponents to really unlock our potential. White is a nice role player, and last year that was really huge because we had a team of high-usage stars and few role players. It's not like White has been bad this year, but I think Coach K sees that the team needs more playmakers on the court. Unfortunately, Moore is still SOOOOOOO shaky with the ball that he hasn't made the leap. And he might not make it at all this year. If not, things will get really tricky in March.

I will say this: back in 2010 no one (except me!) ever thought Brian Zoubek would be the guy to bring toughness and physicality to a Duke team. But he was inserted into the starting lineup against Maryland, spontaneously evolved from Zoubek into Zoubeast, and the rest is history. It wouldn't shock me if we see Coach K make some significant lineup changes on Saturday to try to light a fire under some guys. Maybe it's getting Jack back in the starting lineup, maybe it's putting Joey in and telling him to do nothing but annoy the heck out of the opposition for brief bursts on the floor, maybe it's refocusing JG on being a defensive nightmare for the opposition (I love Jordan as much as anyone, but it was clear he was trying to force some things offensively last night). I would bet that K is going to try something to find that guy starting on Saturday, and whomever claims that role will also claim a lot of PT down the stretch.

You can never rule out things turning around. And I'd be pretty surprised if there were no significant changes to either the lineup or strategy this weekend. Most likely the lineup.

[scottdude8]

I think it was the return of Moore, and trying to get him more time at PF. And I think Moore's performance as a pseudo big in the UNC game was a big part of it. White was playing PF, and with Hurt and Moore taking more time at PF that meant less time for White.

...

You can never rule out things turning around. And I'd be pretty surprised if there were no significant changes to either the lineup or strategy this weekend. Most likely the lineup.

I think the combo of these two leads to the most likely scenario: K shifting to a "4 around 1" core lineup of Carey, Moore, Stanley, JG, and Tre. That lineup is limited from behind the arc, but has the potential to be bonkers-good defensively, and could potentially open things up more for Carey in the post. From that baseline I think you can mix-and-match based on opposition. Bigger opponent? Throw in Javin at the 4. Exploitable matchup at the 4 for Hurt? Throw him in. Need more shooting? AOC or Baker for JG, whomever is hot.

Again, it's speculation on my part, but I would guess in K's ideal world a lineup of those four guys would make a claim to the dominant role.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I could have sworn I logged into DBR but damn it’s cold as ICe in here! Sheesh.

[kAzE]

I could have sworn I logged into DBR but damn it’s cold as ICe in here! Sheesh.

Really? I think this is a perfectly normal day on DBR following a historically bad loss. We're upset, but we're not trashing our own team and spam-posting "It's over" (at least not sarcastically).

If this was IC, the top 3 topics would be:

1. "This team has no heart"
2. "Fire Coach K"
3. "F** these refs"

[KandG]

Really? I think this is a perfectly normal day on DBR following a historically bad loss. We're upset, but we're not trashing our own team and spam-posting "It's over" (at least not sarcastically).

Agree with kAzE here. If anything, I'm pleasantly surprised at how civil (yet frank) the discussion of the team's flaws has been.

[dm9e24]

I could have sworn I logged into DBR but damn it’s cold as ICe in here! Sheesh.

After reading a lot of great post this is the best you have. A comparison to the carolina fan base.

What are your thoughts on the game.

Weak

[Kedsy]

For what it is worth, Bart Torvik disagrees. This loss was substantially worse performance than the 2015 loss to Miami. It was the worst loss we've had since 2009 (@Clemson).

Interesting. If you give 3.5 pts for the home advantage, a 15-point home loss and a 22-point road loss ought to be the same. And I know you can't really compare Pomeroy ratings across seasons, but that Miami team was about 0.7 points better than this State team and that Duke team was almost 5 points better than this Duke team. Even ignoring the relative difference between the two Duke teams, if you count Cameron as a little bigger home advantage than 3.5, it ought to more than make up for Miami being a little better than State. Hence, I figured this loss was a little "better" than that one.

I guess Torvik is probably analyzing offensive and defensive efficiencies rather than point differential, but since people were talking about 20-point losses as being worst than 15-point losses, I thought point differential was appropriate.

Laettner, Wojo, Battier, the Singler/Smith/Scheyer combo, Cook - they all had this role and did it well. Even guys on non-national championship teams like Meagher, Redick, the Plumlees, Allen... there were flaws, but in my mind's eye, they had that fire.

Wojo was never on a championship team (or even a Final Four team), and Allen and all three Plumlees were on championship teams.

But ignoring that, every single player you name was on the court for some number of lifeless drubbings. Singler, Smith, and Scheyer, for example, couldn't stop getting steamrolled 74-47 by Clemson in 2009. Cook was on the teams that lost to Lehigh and Mercer. Etc, etc. Those games (and others) weren't merely a missed shot here, a bad bounce there. They were examples of Duke coming out flat and not wanting it as much as our opponents.

I don't disagree that there are such things as leadership and leaders keeping the team focused, but how we view players in this regard is often a self-fulfilling view based on achievement. If Duke had lost to Utah in the Sweet 16 in 2015 (something that could easily have happened if a few things had gone slightly differently), for example, is there any chance of Quinn Cook being on your list? This year's team's place in history has yet to be written. If we make the Final Four I'm sure someone will be recognized as the player who drove us to get there, notwithstanding last night's performance.

[CameronBlue]

Wojo was never on a championship team (or even a Final Four team), and Allen and all three Plumlees were on championship teams.

But ignoring that,

Despite your unwillingness to luxuriate in the P-slam fest, clearly a character flaw...you score mightily for this one. I may chuckle for a week.

[Music man55]

As is generally felt, the reason Duke lost last night was that they did not come to play. It's the current flaw for this team, and it has shown up in more than just the State game. BC, Syracuse, Carolina, Clemson, etc. It doesn't matter if Duke won those games or not. They didn't come out hungry with a killer instinct. They have this ability, as seen just last weekend. But it's inconsistent. My own personal feeling is that this team starts to believe the hype, rest on its laurels and feel that the D-U-K-E on their jerseys will win the game alone. Of course it's absolutely not true and won't work.

On Duke's championship teams, there has always been a leader (or leaders) that remain focused and keep the team focused. Sure, losses happen, both by a point and by double digits. But it's one thing to have a bad shooting night, have a few bounces go the wrong way, get into foul trouble, etc. It's totally another to just not show up. Leaders keep the team on its toes, keep the fire burning, and won't accept just going through the motions. And right now, I think that's the problem. Jones is the leader on the court, but that's not how games are won or lost. It's everything else leading up to the game. Who is the leader of this team in the locker room, in the film room, in practice and on the sideline? Who is in the dorms keeping the team focused? Who is keeping the fire burning? Duke has the talent to win it all, but it will be pure luck if they do so without strong leadership.

K used to say that his teams always need a M-----F-----r, someone to keep those fires burning at all times. Coaches can only do so much, even legends like K. Laettner, Wojo, Battier, the Singler/Smith/Scheyer combo, Cook - they all had this role and did it well. Even guys on non-national championship teams like Meagher, Redick, the Plumlees, Allen... there were flaws, but in my mind's eye, they had that fire. I'm not sure who on this team is that guy. It's tough because the upperclassmen are role players at best. The team defers to Jones due to his status on the court... but for all his skills, he seems soft-spoken. His brother had Cook behind him, encouraging, pushing, because Cook wanted that banner. Jones has no Cook behind him that I can see. And though Carey is IMO the best player, he also seems like a gentle giant at times, and he's a freshman.

If someone on this team can seize this role, regardless of playing status, I think Duke can work through its other issues and challenge for all 3 championships (reg season, ACC, NCAA). I'm not in the locker room, in the dorms, etc. so I'm not going to venture who that would/should be. But someone needs to. This sleepwalking into games has to stop. The OP says taking a deep breath and focusing on winning the ACC is needed. I say sure, but IMO the team needs its M-----F----r, and they need it now.

9F

I agree completely. This team really needs somebody to lay claim to that title of M---- F-----r. I don't think it has to be their leading scorer, but someone who plays regularly and can become the person who has the personality to handle it. An upperclassmen would be great but Javin, Jack,AOC aren't showing it. Tre would be the obvious candidate, but like you said, seems a little soft spoken.Sadly,I just don't know if we have that person on this roster. I hope we find him soon.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

After reading a lot of great post this is the best you have. A comparison to the carolina fan base.

What are your thoughts on the game.

Weak

The intent of the thread seemed to be that folks should remember history and not get their shorts in a bunch. At which point I felt some folks did start to get their shorts in a bunch about historically bad losses, number of bad performances, lack of leadership and that the apocalypse was in fact upon us. I guess what I saw as a new version of the optimist thread was going in a decidedly different direction.

So, thanks for the wrist slap. I have shared thoughts elsewhere. BTW, since you yourself have offered no thoughts or insights on the game, what are they? I’m dying to know. Surely you didn’t drop in just to chide. Right?

[wavedukefan70s]

Yes we got beat .it happens .
I do believe after the year of zion and company the losses are a little bit tougher to swallow this year.
We are still a very good team.tons of potential.

Ill be disappointed when and if we lose in the ncaa tourney.

[CDu]

The intent of the thread seemed to be that folks should remember history and not get their shorts in a bunch. At which point I felt some folks did start to get their shorts in a bunch about historically bad losses, number of bad performances, lack of leadership and that the apocalypse was in fact upon us. I guess what I saw as a new version of the optimist thread was going in a decidedly different direction.

So, thanks for the wrist slap. I have shared thoughts elsewhere. BTW, since you yourself have offered no thoughts or insights on the game, what are they? I’m dying to know. Surely you didn’t drop in just to chide. Right?

I don’t think equating this discussion to folks “getting shorts in a bunch.” That doesn’t feel like the best way to further the discussion.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I don’t think equating this discussion to folks “getting shorts in a bunch.” That doesn’t feel like the best way to further the discussion.

Fair enough. I’m putting myself on holiday.

[devildeac]

Fair enough. I’m putting myself on holiday.

Hopefully, with a good imperial stout leftover from Christmas and/or Valentine's Day.