Survivor: Winners at War

[Udaman]

Tony might be the second best player in the game behind Boston Rob. His strategy this season has been consistent - don’t let the lions get taken out by the lambs. Right now the lions are him, Jeremy, Ben, Kim and Sarah. And the lambs are Nick, Denise and Michele. He wants to get down to the true stud players and then fight it out, and he’s been brilliant at that. Yes Sarah is now pissed and they may turn on him. But he’s smart enough to make them all think he’s looking (and can’t find) an idol and then will play it.

And whoever comes back from Edge will likely be another lion that he will embrace. Would be fantastic if it’s Rob. They’ve hardly showed him at all. Right now I would put the odds of the winners as

Tony - High
Ben - High
Sarah - High
Kim - High
Michele - Medium
Jeremy - Low
Denise - Low
Nick - zero
Edge person - High (unless it’s Wendell, Amber, Sophie, Dani or Adam. And it won’t be)

[acdevil]

Another good episode last night. Random thoughts in no order:

Props to Jeremy for correctly guessing that he didn’t need to use the advantage (he probably should have though).

Ben has been one of the remaining ones I was rooting for, but his play yesterday had me jumping off his bandwagon. Tony was exactly right about how things were playing out, but Ben didn’t care because he was hell bent on getting rid of Jeremy.

I was shocked by how well Sophie did on EofE challenge. Didn’t know she had that in her.

When all those people dropped out at once for peanut butter, I so wanted Probst to take it away before they got to eat any and say the challenge was over so they had to stop eating.

Sorry to see Kim go. She had the correct strategy to go after tony. Nick should have tried to hold on just for the sole reason of knowing that Tony was the target.

The fire token banks must be getting pretty large. They have to start coming into play in a meaningful way soon.

[Hingeknocker]

As of right now, Tony deserves to win. In part because he's on one of the greatest 3-week runs in Survivor history right now, and shows no signs of slowing down. But also in part because everyone else is playing so haphazardly, that he deserves to win by default. WHY would Nick give up immunity to him? What an unforced error. WHY wouldn't they try to target Sarah once Tony won immunity? WHY would you ever tell Ben anything when he's going to blab it to whoever he can find?

[JasonEvans]

I'm a little mad at the edit for not showing us everyone agreeing with Tony to take out Kim. The lack of idols played after the vote showed that Tony really did have things well in hand. Don't forget that Michelle was casting a very reluctant vote to take out Jeremy as they are allies. Tony engineered a 5-3 vote out and it probably could have been 6-2 if they really needed it to be. But the edit gave no hint at all that Ben or Nick were even considering Tony's plan to take out Kim. I know we like to be surprised, but I prefer the show not to overtly hide stuff from us like they did last night.

As of right now, Tony deserves to win. In part because he's on one of the greatest 3-week runs in Survivor history right now, and shows no signs of slowing down. But also in part because everyone else is playing so haphazardly, that he deserves to win by default. WHY would Nick give up immunity to him? What an unforced error. WHY wouldn't they try to target Sarah once Tony won immunity? WHY would you ever tell Ben anything when he's going to blab it to whoever he can find?

Other than Tony, who is just killing it right now, I struggle to see who else is getting an edit that gives the audience any sense of satisfaction. Everyone else still in the game would feel like a terrible person to win the ultimate winners-only version of the game.

Jeremy - walked out on his alliance, has been repeatedly saved by others, just not getting a deserving edit
Ben - whiny and easy to manipulate. Has he done anything positive the entire game?
Denise - has failed to vote with the majority on 4 straight shows. Not being shown as strategic or a leader
Michelle - puh-lease! She is barely playing and barely on the show. Half the folks an Extinction are getting more attention than she is
Nick - a doufus who is repeatedly manipulated by the stronger players
Sarah - she's the only person other than Tony getting a decent edit and she has been hand-in-hand with Tony on almost everything. If she engineered a takedown of Tony, that could get her the edit of a deserving winner.

Tell me how I am wrong about the above? I mean, can you imagine Ben or Nick or Michelle winning at this point? Wouldn't the whole season feel like a letdown if they did? This is Winners at War, the show is going to give us a deserving winner (and they can edit this stuff almost any way they want).

Now, the one wildcard here is the returning player from Extinction. They said next week is a 2 hour episode. I'm sure we will see one of the Extinction players brought back in that episode. There are certainly players on Extinction who could get a winning edit over the next few hours as the show picks a champion of champions but it will take a lot for anyone still in the game other than Tony or Sarah to get that edit.

Fire token update: Denise now has 6 fire tokens! I have to think those are going to come into play as an advantage at a challenge or something like that. Nick, Sarah, and Tony each have 3. On Extinction, Natalie has 8 and Parv has 4. Tyson, Sophie, Wendell, and Yul each have 2. Fan favorite Rob has zero which is gonna make it really hard on him to win the return challenge.

[Hingeknocker]

Usually, I try my hardest to avoid thinking about the edit while I'm watching the season play out. It feels a bit like cheating when I'm really just trying to enjoy the season and evaluate how I think the players are playing based on what we see. That said, these are great points you've brought up, Jason. Especially as it relates to this season of champions.

One possibility for no one besides Tony getting a good edit is that everyone else already is getting a good edit - i.e. they aren't doing anything well and are getting a good, as in true, edit of their gameplay. This does seem unlikely given a full cast of former winners...but that again is why I am so baffled at how easily it seems Tony is making his moves.

If he is able to make it to the end, I don't even think he has to give a speech to the jury. All he'll have to do is say "remember that time where I openly told Jeremy not to play his advantage AND told Sarah she didn't need one either while simultaneously revealing that I have an idol, and I was 100% correct about the vote?" That was an all-time tribal performance by Tony.

[mr. synellinden]

Usually, I try my hardest to avoid thinking about the edit while I'm watching the season play out. It feels a bit like cheating when I'm really just trying to enjoy the season and evaluate how I think the players are playing based on what we see. That said, these are great points you've brought up, Jason. Especially as it relates to this season of champions.

One possibility for no one besides Tony getting a good edit is that everyone else already is getting a good edit - i.e. they aren't doing anything well and are getting a good, as in true, edit of their gameplay. This does seem unlikely given a full cast of former winners...but that again is why I am so baffled at how easily it seems Tony is making his moves.

If he is able to make it to the end, I don't even think he has to give a speech to the jury. All he'll have to do is say "remember that time where I openly told Jeremy not to play his advantage AND told Sarah she didn't need one either while simultaneously revealing that I have an idol, and I was 100% correct about the vote?" That was an all-time tribal performance by Tony.

Here's my question - how did Tony know? It goes back to JE's comment about the edit. What we saw was Ben dead set against voting out Kim and him not being even willing to talk to Jeremy. We were left with the idea that Tony was not able to convince him - but apparently he was. How and when? I would love to have seen that because it would show how in control of this game Tony is.

Is this the right vote breakdown?

Kim - Jeremy
Michelle - Jeremy
Denise - Jeremy
Tony - Kim
Ben - Kim
Jeremy - Kim
Sarah - Kim
Nick - Kim

Finally, how did those three people give up a shot at immunity for food? I'll never understand this but what I think it shows is just how powerful a force hunger is. Nick gave up immunity with a 50-50 shot to win. Michelle and Kim with a 33% chance. How can you do that? It's somewhat poetic justice that Kim was voted out and Michelle and Nice might be the next to go. I realize not eating is very hard and we can't put ourselves in their shoes with a month of intense hunger - but they've been through the game before and there is no excuse for that decision - as evidenced by the jury's reaction.

[DU82]

Other than Tony, who is just killing it right now, I struggle to see who else is getting an edit that gives the audience any sense of satisfaction. Everyone else still in the game would feel like a terrible person to win the ultimate winners-only version of the game.

Jeremy - walked out on his alliance, has been repeatedly saved by others, just not getting a deserving edit
Ben - whiny and easy to manipulate. Has he done anything positive the entire game?
Denise - has failed to vote with the majority on 4 straight shows. Not being shown as strategic or a leader
Michelle - puh-lease! She is barely playing and barely on the show. Half the folks an Extinction are getting more attention than she is
Nick - a doufus who is repeatedly manipulated by the stronger players
Sarah - she's the only person other than Tony getting a decent edit and she has been hand-in-hand with Tony on almost everything. If she engineered a takedown of Tony, that could get her the edit of a deserving winner.

Tell me how I am wrong about the above? I mean, can you imagine Ben or Nick or Michelle winning at this point? Wouldn't the whole season feel like a letdown if they did? This is Winners at War, the show is going to give us a deserving winner (and they can edit this stuff almost any way they want).

Now, the one wildcard here is the returning player from Extinction. They said next week is a 2 hour episode. I'm sure we will see one of the Extinction players brought back in that episode. There are certainly players on Extinction who could get a winning edit over the next few hours as the show picks a champion of champions but it will take a lot for anyone still in the game other than Tony or Sarah to get that edit.

Fire token update: Denise now has 6 fire tokens! I have to think those are going to come into play as an advantage at a challenge or something like that. Nick, Sarah, and Tony each have 3. On Extinction, Natalie has 8 and Parv has 4. Tyson, Sophie, Wendell, and Yul each have 2. Fan favorite Rob has zero which is gonna make it really hard on him to win the return challenge.

On the returnee from EoE, Natalie is getting a really good edit of being a physical beast in challenges, if she comes back I think she’s the front-runner unless Tony makes it to the end.

Nick’s been complaining about his edit; last week was a gratuitous shot of him sniffing his underarm, which really set him off on social media. Tells me he doesn’t have a chance.

Showing Rob completing the coconut challenge when it didn’t matter I think was the show sending their top star off to the sunset with a positive edit. Don’t see him coming back, either in this game, or as a player. Could see him take over for Probst if he ever steps down. (Could you imagine Rob and Parvati as the co-hosts? Would love the sarcastic comments during challenges and tribal councils!)

There’s seven left, plus one returnee. That’s eight that has to get down to three in the next 3.5 hours or so of broadcast time. Two hours next week, looks like add the returnee, and send two to the jury next week, and then three cuts (one each half-hour) and then final tribal council on the finale. Followed by an hour of a zoom meeting rather than everybody on stage in LA.

[JasonEvans]

On the returnee from EoE, Natalie is getting a really good edit of being a physical beast in challenges, if she comes back I think she’s the front-runner unless Tony makes it to the end.

I think that if Natalie was going to come back and be the winner we would have seen more of her strategy and planning on Extinction. Yes, she has been shown dominating in Edge challenges but she does not have extensive conversations with the camera. We have seen a lot more of Parv, Tyson, and Rob on the Edge. Granted, those are three of the biggest name characters from the history of the game and are each fan favorites, but I still think that the eventual winner would be getting a bigger edit if they were stuck on the Edge. I also think it will be a real challenge for anyone to win from the Edge as these players -- all past champions -- are likely to have at least a little bit of a bias against someone who was voted out versus someone who was in the game the whole time. The late Edge folks like Sophie, Kim, and Tyson would be seen as playing the game longer and might be able to sway the jury with that argument, but Natalie, who was the first vote out and who has really only played the game for 3 days, just faces a huge uphill climb to win over the jury.

[mkirsh]

Random thoughts from last night:

- Tony is crushing it right now, in challenges and in steering the vote, but after playing an understated (for him) game all season is he peaking too early? The second he doesn't have immunity he has to be threat #1, and it doesn't seem like he has a tight "final 3/4" alliance that will protect him. His closest allies seem to be Sara and Ben, and both seem frustrated with him and I assume both would blindside at the right time. Can he keep manufacturing alliances vote to vote? His strategy of keeping the "lesser" players helps him as he can maybe manipulate Michelle and Nick to vote with him.

- At first I didn't see the similarities between Rob and Tony, but I'm starting to get it. Both are ALWAYS in game mode with not a second of let up. Both also force their will on the vote, but in different ways. Rob through fear, and Tony through relentless talk and pressure - they both get people to vote against their long term self interest just so they don't have to take the Rob/Tony spotlight.

- I'm kind of stunned that no one is going after Sara? If the plan was to vote out Tony but then he wins immunity, why note vote out his tightest ally? She must have better relationships with others than the edit is showing. She is my pick to win at this point (but my track record - Yul, Sophie, etc - has not been good).

- I don't know how someone coming back from exile will fare. On the one hand you have someone who is living every day with the jury, going against a player who presumably was part of a vote to put the jury members onto exile. But shouldn't not getting voted out in the first place be a stronger resume point? This is one of my main dislikes about exile. Also, how will a jury made up of the entire cast work out vs the traditional jury of only post merge players?

- Rob and Parv replacing Probst would be cool, but I'm convinced Probst is an anti-aging robot that will outlast all of us to host Survivor season 1000 from the Martian desert

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Random thoughts from last night:



- Rob and Parv replacing Probst would be cool, but I'm convinced Probst is an anti-aging robot that will outlast all of us to host Survivor season 1000 from the Martian desert

So you're saying that Probst is Dick Clark's clone?

[OZZIE4DUKE]

I'm a couple of episodes behind, but I watched the family reunion show today. Usually I think those are "blech", but this time, with the entire family, I really enjoyed it. And I'm glad they brought families to the Edge of Extinction, too. But did you notice - those players didn't get a feast, or at least they didn't show them eating any food.

Tribal Council was a lot of fun with the false starts and double clutching on revealing their advantages. Now what y'all wrote above makes sense!

[acdevil]

One episode left. I’m still rooting for whoever comes back from extinction. Doesn’t matter who - just not a fan of anyone left. Tony definitely deserves to win if those left.

Random thoughts:

Didn’t like Natalya before, but she was beast on the Edge and never stopped fighting.

Nick playing the disadvantage probably sent himself packing.

It’s been a pretty satisfying season so far. Especially compared to the snoozefests the last few seasons. They are fresh and I can’t even remember who won the last one.

[JasonEvans]

One episode left. I’m still rooting for whoever comes back from extinction. Doesn’t matter who - just not a fan of anyone left. Tony definitely deserves to win if those left.

Dissent. I enjoy Tony and Sarah and they each would be a deserving winner. I sorta think Denise has played something that is at least close to a winning game too. Michelle, who has never been on the right side of a vote, and Ben, who has no discernible strategy and seems to be the easiest player to manipulate, are undeserving.

Didn’t like Natalya before, but she was beast on the Edge and never stopped fighting.

I love how hard she has played but physical strength is just one aspect of Survivor and she has not had to demonstrate any of the other aspects of the game that involve personal relationships or especially strategy and alliance building. This is one of the things I hate about the Edge, you don't have to actually play the game while you are there. The fact that they are dropping someone back in the game with just 5 players left is absurd. Bring a Edge person back at the merge and with something like 7 or 8. But to bring them back at 5, especially when they are also allowed to buy an idol, is just so unfair.

And I have another complaint about the edge. The folks who got voted out early have had more opportunities to get fire tokens and thereby have advantages in the return challenge. Nick gets zero chance to earn an advantage. Same with Jeremy (the only fire token clue he got involved an intimate knowledge of the island that he just arrived upon hours ago). It is fundamentally unfair to the players who last longer in the game.

Want to know how the return challenge should work?

Natalie, Amber, Danni, and Ethan should start at the beginning of the challenge.
Rob, Pavati, Yul, and Wendell should start with a small advantage.
Adam, Tyson, and Sophie should have a little bigger advantage.
And then Kim, Jeremy, and Nick should have the biggest advantage.

This rewards the players who lasted the longest in the actual game. They played best, they deserve the best chance to get back into the game. Also, those 3 advantages that Natalie bought... they would merely put her on equal footing with Kim, Jeremy, and Nick. In essence, by gaining fire tokens on the Edge, she has earned her way up to being one of the longest lasting players in the game. That makes a lot more sense than giving her waaaay more opportunities to get an advantage over the players who played better and lasted longer.

Nick playing the disadvantage probably sent himself packing.

Yeah, I thought about this the moment Michelle won immunity. If Ben had won instead, they vote out Michelle for sure. The price Nick paid, 8 fire tokens, was super high too. I feel like the fire tokens were useful for people on the Edge, but really not all that useful for folks who actually were still in the game. I see the fire tokens as an interesting twist on Survivor, but poorly implemented this season. The players in the game should have been able to use them for advantages at challenges or something more meaningful than a couple pillows or a bag of rice.

So, now we get 3 vote outs and a jury vote in the final episode. That is a lot. If Tony gets to the end I think Sarah is the only person who would have a chance to beat him. The winners will respect winning strategy and Tony has been in complete control of this game for a loooong time. It is sorta amazing how he is never on the chopping block.

-Jason "Tony and Ben have idols that must be played at 6 or 5... and Natalie, Rob, or Tyson would have one too... could be some crazy final votes next week!!" Evans

[Hingeknocker]

I remain flabbergasted at the collective strategies of Ben, Nick, Denise, and to a lesser extent, Sarah. Michele hasn't been playing well for most of the season but 1) absolutely CLUTCH immunity win last night, I love watching those; and 2) AT LEAST SHE KNOWS WHAT IS GOING ON. Her only mistake was trying to recruit Sarah into the "get Tony out" plan. It looks Sarah has made her bed with Tony to the end, and she'll have to live with what comes from that. Michele probably should have figured that out and tried to recruit everyone else onto that plan and leave Sarah out of it. (Maybe she did and we just didn't see it, but she should have known Sarah would blab that to the whole group, dramatically reducing the chances of getting Tony out.)

But as for Ben, Nick, and Denise, I am really struggling with the fact that they all are winners while also misplaying this season so badly I would expect them to be newcomers to the game. I guess it's a huge credit to the social game that Tony is playing along with his challenge wins and mental toughness...but man. Tough look for everyone besides Tony. Sarah really is at the point where her only possible winning move is to engineer Tony's ouster.

And is it possible that they were all waiting for the end of EoE to send Tony to the jury? That would be the only thing that makes a little sense...

[Rich]

And I have another complaint about the edge. The folks who got voted out early have had more opportunities to get fire tokens and thereby have advantages in the return challenge. Nick gets zero chance to earn an advantage. Same with Jeremy (the only fire token clue he got involved an intimate knowledge of the island that he just arrived upon hours ago). It is fundamentally unfair to the players who last longer in the game.

Not to mention, is there any doubt that many of those left on the Edge after next week's challenge, who will comprise the vast majority of the jury, and most of whom are "old school", didn't come to some agreement that they will vote for whomever from the Edge returns to the game if that person can get to the final vote? Forming bonds on the Edge potentially gives the returning "Edger" a huge advantage over the players who played the game and made it to the end.

[Hingeknocker]

Want to know how the return challenge should work?

Natalie, Amber, Danni, and Ethan should start at the beginning of the challenge.
Rob, Pavati, Yul, and Wendell should start with a small advantage.
Adam, Tyson, and Sophie should have a little bigger advantage.
And then Kim, Jeremy, and Nick should have the biggest advantage.

Completely agree with all of your takes on EoE. It's a bad gimmick that worked terribly the first time they tried it, and has the potential to work even worse this time if Natalie is able to cash in on her absolute pile of advantages.

I like your idea for the reworked return challenge. My idea that I kicked around would be slightly different and introduce challenges along the way that make people earn their way to the return challenge - the longer you're on the Edge, the harder that should be. So, as soon as there are 4 people there, a challenge happens and only 1 of them can remain. Repeat until a "Final Four" gets to play for the chance to get back in the game. At the absolute latest I would do this at the Final 8.

[Rich]

And I have another complaint about the edge. The folks who got voted out early have had more opportunities to get fire tokens and thereby have advantages in the return challenge. Nick gets zero chance to earn an advantage. Same with Jeremy (the only fire token clue he got involved an intimate knowledge of the island that he just arrived upon hours ago). It is fundamentally unfair to the players who last longer in the game.

Want to know how the return challenge should work?

Natalie, Amber, Danni, and Ethan should start at the beginning of the challenge.
Rob, Pavati, Yul, and Wendell should start with a small advantage.
Adam, Tyson, and Sophie should have a little bigger advantage.
And then Kim, Jeremy, and Nick should have the biggest advantage.

This rewards the players who lasted the longest in the actual game. They played best, they deserve the best chance to get back into the game. Also, those 3 advantages that Natalie bought... they would merely put her on equal footing with Kim, Jeremy, and Nick. In essence, by gaining fire tokens on the Edge, she has earned her way up to being one of the longest lasting players in the game. That makes a lot more sense than giving her waaaay more opportunities to get an advantage over the players who played better and lasted longer.

Completely agree with all of your takes on EoE. It's a bad gimmick that worked terribly the first time they tried it, and has the potential to work even worse this time if Natalie is able to cash in on her absolute pile of advantages.

I like your idea for the reworked return challenge. My idea that I kicked around would be slightly different and introduce challenges along the way that make people earn their way to the return challenge - the longer you're on the Edge, the harder that should be. So, as soon as there are 4 people there, a challenge happens and only 1 of them can remain. Repeat until a "Final Four" gets to play for the chance to get back in the game. At the absolute latest I would do this at the Final 8.

I wonder how much the players knew how the Edge was going to be implemented before the game started. I remember hearing/reading that they knew there would be an Edge so they would have TV time after being voted out. They lobbied for that and some wouldn't agree to play unless there was an Edge and a way to get back in the game.

Conceivably someone could've designed a "Shoot the Moon" strategy of getting to the Edge early and creating an alliance with the whole jury. I don't think that happened, but in retrospect the longtime Edgers have a huge advantage if they can get back into the game for the final vote.

[JasonEvans]

Completely agree with all of your takes on EoE. It's a bad gimmick that worked terribly the first time they tried it, and has the potential to work even worse this time if Natalie is able to cash in on her absolute pile of advantages.

I like your idea for the reworked return challenge. My idea that I kicked around would be slightly different and introduce challenges along the way that make people earn their way to the return challenge - the longer you're on the Edge, the harder that should be. So, as soon as there are 4 people there, a challenge happens and only 1 of them can remain. Repeat until a "Final Four" gets to play for the chance to get back in the game. At the absolute latest I would do this at the Final 8.

I 100% think that the Edge was invented and exists for the sole purpose of keeping the popular previous winners on the show in a meaningful way once they got voted out. Rob is the most popular player in Survivor history and the producers knew there was a good chance he would be an early boot. So, the Edge gives them a way to keep Rob around. Same with Sandra (she showed them by leaving the show), Parvati, and Tyson. Those 4, along with Richard Hatch, are the pantheon of Survivor players (Tony has joined them with his play this season). The producers did not want ratings to suffer when these popular players were eliminated from the game so they came up with a way to keep all of them around until the end.

I get it and I don't hate it. I just think it needs to stop being an option before the final episode with only 5 players left.

[acdevil]

Can’t really argue with a lot of the Edge takes.

Don’t really agree about Sarah. She doesn’t seem to be playing a good game - just going with Tony. Then, she has a discussion about final three at the well below the spy nest that she knows is there and doesn’t check? She has to get rid of Tony to win. I don’t know why anyone would vote for her over Tony at this point.

Agree on the Michelle take as well. She has been out of the strategy running the game, but at least she knows what is going on. It is amazing how oblivious so many of the remainders are. This is another area tony has excelled in. He correctly predicted that hyenas would come after the lions if they didn’t keep the numbers.

[JasonEvans]

Don’t really agree about Sarah. She doesn’t seem to be playing a good game - just going with Tony. Then, she has a discussion about final three at the well below the spy nest that she knows is there and doesn’t check? She has to get rid of Tony to win. I don’t know why anyone would vote for her over Tony at this point.

I'm not entirely convinced that Tony didn't tell Sarah to bring some folks over to the watering hole so he could spy on them. These folks know that theatrics are a key part of building your profile for the fans and also help the show get good ratings. Tony knows that his spy nest stuff will make for good TV but only if it bears fruit. So, he recruits Sarah to bring some folks over and let him spy on them. It is all just theatrics for the fans.

I mean, how much did he learn from that exchange anyway? Denise tells Ben and Sarah that the three of them would make a good final three. I mean, what else was she supposed to say in that moment? "Hey, I think Tony, Sarah and I would be a good final trio... what do you think about that, Ben?"

I think Sarah is not taking out Tony because he is her buffer. With him around, any insurgency will target Tony, not his first lieutenant, Sarah. I'm having a hard time constructing a scenario where Sarah does not make the end at this point. I guess if Tony wins immunity and everyone wants to break up him and Sarah, but other than that scenario, she's almost certainly in the final three, IMO.

As for her argument over Tony, I would imagine it would be that she was hand-in-hand with him on all the moves (except for taking out Sophie) and then she would probably say that she has played a better social game. I dunno. Folks may feel betrayed by Tony. We have very little idea what the social game has been like.