Duke's North Carolina residency continues on Saturday as the Blue Devils welcome former assistant coach (one of us!) Mike Brey and the Fightin' Irish of Notre Dame. ND is having a somewhat disappointing season given how well they have played of late. The team is 6-6 in conference and has very narrow losses to BC (73-72), NC State (73-68), Louisville (67-64), Syracuse (84-82), and Florida State (85-84). They are currently riding a 4-game winning streak over Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Clemson. The largest margin of victory in that stretch was a 10-point cushion against Wake, a game in which ND was less than stellar on the defensive end. So the Irish can play with anyone but are having trouble closing the deal.
This squad is a mix of seniors and sophomores. Of the 7 players that get regular minutes, all of them are either seniors or sophomores. And the 8th man, 6'7" F Nikola Djogo, is a senior, too. He only gets about 8-10 minutes a game. Let's start instead with SR F John Mooney. The 6'9" Floridian is doing it all for ND yet again this year. He leads the conference in rebounding and chips in a team-leading 16.5 points per game. Scoring comes from all over the court as Mooney can and will make a jump shot out from as far as the 3-point line (32.4% this season) and in. Mooney pairs with fellow SR C Juwan Durham (6'11") in the frontcourt. The slender UConn transfer is a bit of a specialist as a rim protector. He does chip in a few points and rebounds in his 18 minutes a game but is mostly there to block shots. Reserve SO F/C Nate Laszewski (6'10") is the heir apparent to Mooney and will stretch the court when he is in the game as well.
In the backcourt, ND employs SR G TJ Gibbs (6'3"), SO PG Prentiss Hubb (6'3"), and RS-SR Rex Pflueger (6'6") in the starting lineup. Pflueger missed most of his original SR season to a nasty injury and has been working his way back to health this year. He's primarily a jump shooter on offense but pretty nifty on defense where he leads the team in steals per game. Gibbs is the real shooter on the team, where he leads ND in 3-point shooting at 41.9% and at the free throw line at nearly 90%. He's a steady guard and plays well but is not an elite athlete or finisher. The point guard, Hubb, is also a pretty good shooter (34.6%) and has taken the most attempts from behind the arc. Hubb has been steady if not outstanding this year. SO G/F Dane Goodwin (6'6" sees the court more than some of the starters and will play a stretch-4 position. He's a deadly shooter (38.8% from 3) and can stretch the defense.
ND is a somewhat slow-paced jump-shooting team. They excel at playing a deliberate half-court offense with plenty of back cuts and the extra passes to find open shooters. Nearly half of their shot attempts come from behind the arc, so forcing them off the line without giving the backdoor cut will be key in this one. ND almost never turns the ball over, ranking second in the nation in TO% on offense. On the flip side, they also rarely force TOs on defense. Their defense is so-so at best. One of the key attributes to their success on D is forcing bad shots and relying on Durham, when he's in, to make opponents miss at the rim. While Mooney is an excellent rebounder as an individual, ND is not a good rebounding team overall. Their style of play is about discipline and staying in the half court. They lead the nation in FTR on defense, sending teams to the line on less than 20% of possessions.
Duke should have advantages by limited ND's frequently and often accurate 3-point shooting. Duke also has better athletes across the board and superior rebounders aside from John Mooney. Mooney struggled against the superior athletic team Duke took to South Bend last season, hitting just 4 of 15 field goal attempts and allowed Zion Williamson to put up one of his best performances: 26 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 blocks, and a steal against no TO's while shooting 10-12 from the field. I expect that Mooney will struggle to keep Vernon Carey, Jr. in check as well. Mooney is big but not particularly quick on defense. Durham has the length to stop him but not the size and doesn't play much and is a bit foul prone. On the wings, Duke has clear advantages and depth on their side. Turning the game into a track meet would go a long way to securing the victory.
In the end, a tight game predicated on execution in the half court is probably the most likely outcome. ND plays a disciplined style of basketball and rarely turns the ball over. Duke needs to play with poise here. If they are able to force difficult shots and turn a few long rebounds into runouts, they could build a good lead.