SFA Loss Looking Less Bad

[uh_no]

The chances of any​ matchup after the 2nd round are going to be less than 50%.

that's only true if all games are a coinflip. If the 1 and 2 seed each have >70% chance to make the elite 8, which is entirely reasonable in the case of a weak bracket and OP 1 and 2 seed, the chances of the 1-2 matchup is >50%.

[Acymetric]

that's only true if all games are a coinflip. If the 1 and 2 seed each have >70% chance to make the elite 8, which is entirely reasonable in the case of a weak bracket and OP 1 and 2 seed, the chances of the 1-2 matchup is >50%.

It isn't only true if all games are a coinflip...unless your coins hit heads at a >70% rate in which case I have some questions...the odds for each team can be better than 50% and still have the matchup less than 50% likely (as you yourself noted).

It would guess it is more common than not that it is less than that (especially for the 2 seed), I think you are probably estimating the odds of a 1 seed reaching the Elite 8 about right (70-80%) but the 2 seed too high (probably in the 50-65% range at most).

A 1 seed that is 99%, 90%, and 90% in the first 3 rounds still just barely cracks 80, and 90% is probably high for the Sweet 16 even for a strong #1 seed (it might even be too high for the 2nd round game against the 8/9). A 2 seed is going to be notably lower even than that.

[Acymetric]

FWIW, using historical data there is about a 31.5% chance of a 1/2 matchup in the Elite 8. 2 seeds have a 45.6% chance of making it, 1 seeds have a 69.1% chance. Of course, once you know the bracket you can use predictive win probabilities instead, but I expect even using that a >=50% chance of a 1/2 matchup is exceedingly rare, and I wouldn't be shocked if the probability never got that high for any 1/2 pair in any bracket.

[uh_no]

It isn't only true if all games are a coinflip...unless your coins hit heads at a >70% rate in which case I have some questions...the odds for each team can be better than 50% and still have the matchup less than 50% likely (as you yourself noted).

It would guess it is more common than not that it is less than that (especially for the 2 seed), I think you are probably estimating the odds of a 1 seed reaching the Elite 8 about right (70-80%) but the 2 seed too high (probably in the 50-65% range at most).

A 1 seed that is 99%, 90%, and 90% in the first 3 rounds still just barely cracks 80, and 90% is probably high for the Sweet 16 even for a strong #1 seed (it might even be too high for the 2nd round game against the 8/9). A 2 seed is going to be notably lower even than that.

my analysis referred to a hypothetical specific case, not 1 and 2 matchups in general. The committee is bad enough as seeding WRT objective measures that it's reasonable to imagine cases where an underseeded 2 and an overseeded 4 could result in a higher-than-expected change for the 2 seed to make the elite 8. I'd venture to imagine it's happened at least once in the last 5 years that such a team had 70% chance of reaching the elite 8.

I'm not suggesting that such a case is probable or common, just that it is by no means impossible.

An enterprising individual could take the best KP 2 seed, and the worst 15, 7, and 3 seeds and see what the maximum e8% for a individual 2 seed could possibly be.

[House P]

Statistically SFA is a pretty bizarre team. They are literally #1, the top team in the country in defensive turnover percentage and that really showed in the Duke game where they forced Duke into 22 TOs, which is still the most of any game this year. (FSU last night and Georgetown both were 21 TOs.) Oddly, as great as SFA is at forcing turnovers, they are almost last (#346 out of 353) in protecting the ball themselves on offense. They are #4 in the country in offensive rebounds, #7 in free throw percentage, and #10 in 3pt percentage (although near the bottom at #344 in 3pts made). Their two guys with the most 3pt attempts on the team are both shooting 43% from 3. It's pretty bizarre that the same team can be in the top 10 and bottom 10 in the country in several categories. They have a pretty legit shot at running the table for the rest of the regular season, and KenPom has them predicted to go 27-4, 18-2.

SFA is also in the bottom 10 in the country in terms of committing fouls (as measured by FTA/FGA on defense). It is not surprising that the team which forces the most turnovers also commits a lot lots fouls. By committing 22 turnovers while missing 16 of 40 free throws in the game, Duke played into SFA’s biggest strength (forcing turnover) while failing to take advantage of one of their biggest weaknesses (committing lots of fouls). That is a formula for a closer than expected game.