Horse Racing 2020

[DevilHorse]

The Kentucky Derby Field is here, and it will spark major discussion and stoke some extra betting interest:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._positions_123

Of major interest is that Art Collector is OUT of the derby with a minor injury. Best wishes to him and his connections for a speedy recovery.
That said, there are still 18 horses in the derby. I lose my bet (with myself).

So where are the big horses? They are all outside!!!
16> Honor A.P. (5-1)
17> Tiz The Law (3-5)
18> Authentic (8-1)

Perhaps this is least advantageous to Authentic since he will surely go for the lead and will have the longest trip to get there. Honor A.P. and Tiz The Law will surely not get trapped inside, but they will likely either be further back than they want to be, or will have to spend energy getting to a good stalking position up front. Not such a tough task for Tiz The Law who has a high cruising speed, but perhaps for Honor A.P. who will surely need his A game. These are the only horses below 10-1 odds.

Thousand Words is next in odds at 15-1, with King Guillermo and NY Traffic at 20-1. Waiting on PPs, and later in the week for Weather and Jockey information. I don't know if Calvin Bo-Rail is in here.. should be.. he is riding again.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

In a bizarre bit of KY Derby news, Brian Hernandez Jr. has tested positive for COVID-19.
Brian is/was the regular rider for Art Collector, who also sustained an injury and is out of the Kentucky Derby.

Racetracks have been doing a great job keeping their jockey colonies as safe as they can, at least on track you see the jockeys with masks, personnel are interviewed with masks and social distancing at all times. Only owners, trainers, and those folks involved with the production of the race and telecasts are at the track. Not even concession workers are there. Jockeys are getting dressed in separate (or separated) quarters. They are taking this seriously. So, with any luck, this is an isolated incident. Brian has tested positive I'm assuming through a routine test because he has been riding. He also was tested and is positive for antibodies. He is scheduled to be on horses this week for other mounts, and he is anxious to get to it. This is a very lucrative week (the purses are insane). The timeline of tests just aren't clear.

One of the articles I read suggests that Hernandez is not contagious because he now has the antibodies. I hadn't heard that is a thing.
I'll have to check with rsvman on the other thread.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Here are the PPs of the 2020 Kentucky Derby, courtesy of Brisnet:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1894760

There will be other versions of the PPs. Equibase, DRF, is anyone intersted or will this suffice?

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Well, tomorrow is the day for the Kentucky Derby and it looks like fantastic weather.

There are Kentucky Derby prep race refugees gracing the undercards across the country as well.

Cezanne fans will be happy to see that he will be in the Pat Day mile at Churchill Downs race 9:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1218060

Dr. Post will be at Saratoga for the Jim Dandy (usually a Travers prep race):
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1508940
The nice colt, Jesus' Team, will also be in the field. Nice quinella/ exacta box possibility.

The great Monomy Girl runs in the La Troianne today:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1488740

The derby tomorrow will go postward around 6:50 EST on NBC. Their coverage starts at 2:30.

No takers for the proposed contest.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Today is the big day! Strap on your seat belts. There will be choices.

Firstly, there are two scratches.
Finnick the Fierce and King Guillermo are both scratched. Less traffic is good for the contenders. KG was a big closing conender.

Tiz The Law is the obvious choice to bring a Triple Crown bid to Pimlico in a month. He has a high cruising speed and an impressive turn of foot coming out of the last turn. If he is within a couple of lengths of Authentic on the last turn, with no interference, it could be all over. He has shown that 1 1/4 mile is no problem.

Honor A.P. put in a lackluster effort in the Shared Belief, but it was not unexpected. He still was awarded a 102 Beyer Figure, finishing second behind the refurbished Thousand Words. If he is on his A game, and is forwardly placed, he could give Tiz The Law a run for his money. Honor Code was a big late runner and so is his son. The later Kentucky Derby is to his advantage.

Authentic will be setting the pace. With the early scratch of Art Collector, it is possible that easier fractions could be set. That would play into the hands (or hooves) of Authentic. But the Derby rarely plays to form. I would expect some other horses to press the pace too. For $3M, I might. If not, Authentic could live to tell about it.

Max Player is another son of Honor Code who could be there at the end. With a top effort, could be there.

Thousand Words, if he improves.

NY Traffic might hit a show spot.

Sole Volente, only if everyone goes nuts with a fast pace, he will be there to pick up the pieces with big brush at the end. But he hasn't shown he can be close enough to do it.

My pick:

Tiz The Law # Most Likely
Honor A.P. # Best Value
Max Player # Best Longshot

Larry
DevilHorse

[Devilwin]

Mine
Authentic

Honor AP

Tiz The Law

[Aladuke]

Devil win, you are obviously the expert, but I would bet Tiz the Law, Honor AP, and Authentic in that order. Was at the 2015 Derby to see American Pharaoh. Won the trifecta, but didn’t bet nearly enough. Covered my hotel and food,but I could have covered the tickets and plane fare with more guts.
Best trip we have ever taken in sports, and I have been to National FB Championships, World Series, NBA All Star Games with players, and as a 21 year old, sat next to Gene Autry in Atlanta at the All Star Game. The Derby topped everything we’ve done.

[Aladuke]

Devil win, you are obviously the expert, but I would bet Tiz the Law, Honor AP, and Authentic in that order. Was at the 2015 Derby to see American Pharaoh. Won the trifecta, but didn’t bet nearly enough. Covered my hotel and food,but I could have covered the tickets and plane fare with more guts.
Best trip we have ever taken in sports, and I have been to National FB Championships, World Series, NBA All Star Games with players, and as a 21 year old, sat next to Gene Autry in Atlanta at the All Star Game. The Derby topped everything we’ve done.

[Devilwin]

Authentic surely was. Held off a hard charging Tiz The Law. Taking him for the Preakness also...

[Aladuke]

Devil win, you have proved your mettle. Helluva race. Congrats. Hope you won big.

[Devilwin]

Thanks. ,Did ok, in fact.

[DevilHorse]

Congratulations to Devilwin. He stood behind Authentic from the start.

Authentic ran a great/inspired race. He did not get off to a great start, but Velasquez kept to the game plan and pursued the top. Kept him moving ever forward, and wide into the first turn. The fractions were firm but not outrageous. Other races had similarly fast fractions, although not for route distances. Tiz The Law stayed in the 3rd/4th row, to keep free of any trouble, the whole way, and was forwardly placed. At the head of the stretch, Tiz The Law had Authentic in his sights, but Authentic would not let him pass. It was a gritty performance to the wire in a very good 2:00.3 time for the 1 1/4.

Honor A.P. finished 4th, but had the worst trip of any horse. It was estimated that he traveled 49 feet further than any horse in the field. He was stuck behind horses, and still finished a respectable 4th, 6 lengths back. Mr. Big News finished 3rd, and Honor A.P. came from 15th (last), with a half mile to go, to finish 4th.

Baffert's 2 horses were not well behaved today. Before the race, Thousand Words was apparently spooked by some flowers (those fast movers) and reared up just before being mounted by the jockey, and fell on his hip. The horse had to be scratched, but he is OK. But you can't say the same for his handler, and longtime Baffert associate, who broke his arm trying to get control of the animal.
After the race, Authentic was hyped up and knocked Baffert over during the festivities. Apparently both are fine too. What is in the water with these Baffert horses?

This is (the great) Into Mischief's first Classic winner. He is a super sire, but has only proven it with fast performers at shorter distances. Now that this hurdle is surpassed, and has established himself as a sire of sires, sire of speed, and sire of Classic winners, what will his stud fee be (now $200K).

On to the Preakness!

Tomorrow and Monday the 2YOs take center stake with the Del Mar Futurity and the Hopeful at Saratoga.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Looking for next year's Kentucky Derby hopeful's. Check out today's entries in:

The Hopeful at Saratoga:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=2179580

The Del Mar Futurity:
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1373600

Of course, a quick look at the Kentucky Derby PPs and I could not find one entrant who started in one of these two races. More than half of the entrants started their career after Sept 1 of their 2 YO year. I recall that Seattle Slew didn't break his maiden till the Belmont meet, Smarty Jones during the winter before the Triple Crown, you get the idea..
But then, I do remember attending my only Hopeful in the late summer of 1977 at Saratoga, when an early chapter in a legendary rivalry was engaged:
https://youtu.be/4bGu9txq9g8
Perhaps Authentic and Tiz The Law will have such a rivalry if their Trainers can stop avoiding each other. Let's hope they re-engage in the Preakness.

Jackie's Warrior and Reinvestment Risk look like good ones in the Hopeful. Spielberg, Dr. Shivel, and Weston look like top colts in the Del Mar Futurity. We'll surely see a few of these in the BC Juvenile as they are all very lightly raced and learning. Fun stuff.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Jackie's Warrior and Reinvestment Risk look like good ones in the Hopeful. Spielberg, Dr. Shivel, and Weston look like top colts in the Del Mar Futurity. We'll surely see a few of these in the BC Juvenile as they are all very lightly raced and learning. Fun stuff.

Larry
DevilHorse

Jackie's Warrior beat Reinvestment Risk easily in the Hopeful. He pulled up in the stretch. Not sure if there will be the usual stepping stone of the Champagne Stakes before (or after) the BC for this colt.

Dr. Shivel remains undefeated, beating Spielberg and Weston. Stories that he will be changing barns are swirling. This is not uncommon though. But it is the first Grade 1 win for Luis Mendez, which is great and well earned for developing this colt.

Larry
DevilHorse

[Devilwin]

Jackie's Warrior beat Reinvestment Risk easily in the Hopeful. He pulled up in the stretch. Not sure if there will be the usual stepping stone of the Champagne Stakes before (or after) the BC for this colt.

Dr. Shivel remains undefeated, beating Spielberg and Weston. Stories that he will be changing barns are swirling. This is not uncommon though. But it is the first Grade 1 win for Luis Mendez, which is great and well earned for developing this colt.

Larry
DevilHorse

Larry
Since the Preakness is the short one. Advantage goes to Authentic?

[DevilHorse]

Larry
Since the Preakness is the short one. Advantage goes to Authentic?

Devilwin,

I'm not of the opinion that Authentic will have it easy in the Preakness. I have a few reasons to think things might be different.

Let's just say that Authentic had an outrageous race; he took a big leap above anything he did previously. He was by far the best horse on the track on that day (and in the country). Was he also a horse for this course? Perhaps. Some horses like Churchill Downs, and some don't; to most, it is just another track.

To your point on distance, 1 3/16 is still just a tad shorter than the Kentucky Derby. It is a loooong race by most measurements. Was Authentic loose on the lead? Yes and No. He wasn't challenged, but.. he didn't get there easily, and there was a good pace. The pace WAS all Authentic, but any other horse would have to have sacrificed their chances to be up there with him.

Tiz The Law has lost 2 races in his life; both at Churchill Downs. The opposite of the horses for courses syndrome. Same thing happened to Arrogate at Del Mar; that great horse turned mortal at Del Mar. Unfortunately for Arrogate and Baffert, the Breeder's Cup was at Del Mar, and Baffert was stabled there. He kept trying to win big races there and failed badly. When he traveled to other tracks, he was a monster. Go figure.

Conspiracy Theory: What did Baffert do to his horses? There were 2 horses that behaved badly at the derby. They were both Baffert's horses. Thousand Words was disqualified because he was "spooked" while being saddled by 'flowers' (really), and fell on his hip (breaking his handler's arm). The horse was nuts. Authentic (if you watched the winner's circle) was fractious after running outrageously, an exhausting mile. He was in constant motion and moved his hind end around and knocked Baffert to the ground. I've been in the winners circle dozens of times and witnessed hundreds of horses in that situation, they are usually TIRED and calmed down after having water applied to their head. What was going on with the Baffert horses?

Pimlico has tighter turns than Belmont or Churchill Downs, it is an advantage to any horse that is on the lead, so that would be an advantage to Authentic. Wouldn't affect either Tiz The Law or Honor A.P. because they go a few rows wide anyway.

Has Authentic raced on a wet track before? He surely has trained on one. The fall in Maryland is more likely to see one than in May.

I don't think they will change jockeys on Tiz The Law (inexperienced jockey) or Honor A.P. (who had an awful start, but all world jockey). If there is some early speed to challenge Authentic, the complexion of the race will change.

Like a Spring Preakness, I'm sure we'll see new shooters, but it will surely be a smaller field. Art Collector (front runner) and Thousand Words will be there.

Authentic will need the Preakness to take home the 3YO Eclipse award. I think Tiz The Law still holds that.

Larry
DevilHorse

[Devilwin]

Thanks Larry. I think I he can handle those turns..We will see I reckon..

[DevilHorse]

As we look forward to the Preakness, there are these headlines:

Authentic is back in training toward the Preakness.

Tiz The Law's status is not known.

Honor A. P. apparently was injured in the Kentucky Derby and was retired to Stud.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac..._medium=social

Larry
DevilHorse

[Devilwin]

Wow. Sorry to hear that about Honor AP.

[DevilHorse]

Wow. Sorry to hear that about Honor AP.

Agree that it is too bad for racing as he was lightly raced, and was likely to improve greatly with age, as his sire did.

He is being retired to Lane's End farm. Based on his running style, I'd expect that he would be bred to a lot of sprinter type, smaller sized mares. It just so happens that one of the most prolific sprinter type sires, City Zip (recently deceased) stood at that farm. Honor A.P. should have ample access to those farm mares (the breeding cross looks good - no near inbreeding), and should be popular.

The injury is surmised to have been a tendon injury that was observed a while after the Kentucky Derby, so the horse was not in any danger at any time. Tendon injuries can sometimes be chronic and can reappear.

There will be many more Honor Code studs out there, and the A.P. Indy siring tree is very popular right now and could get saturated (think Tapit and his sons; remember A.P. Indy is a son of Seattle Slew, and there are few Slew lines left now other than API). Some prevailing views are that sireiines tend to wain after 3 generations, so it is sometimes good to get your horse going ASAP if you've got a good prospect. The more adventurous thoroughbred breeders might look to cross Honor A.P. with Tapit line mares to get 4x4 inbreeding with A.P. Indy, or with Storm Cat line mares to get that Secretariat cross (2 generations back from A.P. Indy and Storm Cat).

They will at least test breed Honor A.P.; as long as he doesn't come back infertile, he will go on to stud. If he is infertile, he can always come back to race next year if his owners decide to. If you recall (this is a while ago) Cigar was infertile, but he had a full career that didn't even start to gel until he was a 4YO. It is not obvious why he retired when he did; possibly because of infermities (they all have aches and pains), and there was nothing left to prove (he retired as the highest equine money earner). Cigar was not brought back to the track, even though he could have easily won hundreds of thousands of dollars, it is not likely he would have reached his former heights of glory.

More than you wanted to know..

Larry
DevilHorse