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  1. #81

    Tids and Bits

    A few updated facts:

    The Saratoga Meet will apparently be on (big sigh of relief); people attending, not so much (awww).

    The Preakness will be 5 weeks after the Kentucky Derby, on October 3, 2020. This opens up so many questions.
    1) The potential "legitimacy" of a Triple Crown Winner (whatever that means) when you don't have a traditionally small amount of tim
    e between the races
    2) Does this force the Belmont into late October or early November, thus conflicting directly with the Breeder's Cup?
    2a) Does this potentially force the Breeder's Cup (to be run at Keeneland) further into November/December or just to be without the top dirt 3YOs?

    More decisions pending.

    Churchill Downs opened and had a wet track.

    Green Light Go had his chances, but was pinched between two horses and didn't have enough track to get up.

    Toledo lugged in in the stretch, which forced him to have to pull up, and go around horses, which was too much for him. Look to bet next out.

    Monomoy Girl returned to the races after a year and half off. The 3YO Filly champion of 2018 swept the field of an allowance race. Always bet these fabricated races the tracks put together for the Top horses off a long lay-off. It is a gift to the trainers and to you! Paid $3. Will be a wonderful division against the Top Horse in the land, Midnight Bisou, who finished 2nd in the $20M Saudi Cup to the now tainted victory of Maximum Security.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    + Not all horses are made for the Derby trail. Baffert had an interesting horse break its maiden, at first asking, last August at Delmar, by 8 lengths as a 3YO. Then the horse reappears today as a 4YO in the 3rd on the opening day at Santa Anita. Put in an outrageous 4f work in December, and has worked modestly since. Obviously has health issues. Good Luck to the the owners of Tale of the Union today in the 3rd race at Santa Anita. These owners have stuck with this animal, no doubt for 3 years, paying big bills with Baffert.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...975&param3=975
    Forgot to mention Tale of the Union.

    He raced greenly and did not threaten in his race, but did not look that badly in a hotly contested race.
    When a horse races greenly they wander in the lane. With a horse that has few starts, and a large gap between starts, you wonder if lameness is an issue.
    Wandering (apparent greenness) could be the horse running from pain in a limb. Didn't look that way, but you have to wonder.
    Hope he is dropped in the box again soon.

    Should we confine discussion to Derby horses, or are these types of interesting starters of value to you folks?

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #83

    The First Leg of the Triple Crown is...

    The First Leg of the Triple Crown in 2020 is... The Belmont Stakes on June 20... Wow.

    1) Lots of time between the Legs. How is that going to work.

    2) The Belmont will have the most horses it has ever seen in the race. Big Sandy can handle it though. I don't think they will have 20 horses though, but will they use KY Derby points?

    3) This will leave some horses with a big choice (especially West Coast horses). Run in the big Santa Anita Derby on June 6 or the Belmont on June 20. I do not think that a horse will be doing both. We are talking the modern (frail) thoroughbred here. We are also talking summer in NYC; 85 degrees and humid.

    4) If the Travers doesn't move earlier, in direct confrontation with the Haskell, it will be a dead race, because it is a mid-to late August race. There is no way a horse will race in it that has any hopes of racing in the KY Derby on Sept 5.

    Wow, this year is a real tossed salad of possibilities. You may have big races run by unworthy horses because the good ones just can't go to all of the dances.

    The Breeder's Cup may be more worthy a measure than the KY Derby, but they don't really have a 3YO Championship Race there.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #84
    Yet more.

    Belmont will be 1 1/8 miles. Not a classic distance, but more suited to a hot weather day. That's a one-turn race at Belmont.

    Baffert is suggesting that Authentic would go to the Santa Anita Derby, while Nadal and Charlatan would go to the Belmont.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._Charlatan_123

    I would guess that Tiz The Law would stay on the East Coast.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #85

    The Matt Winn on Sat May 23

    Folks,

    The Matt Winn will be raced at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Race 10.
    It looks like it could be an interesting betting race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1353400
    Here are the Past Performances, courtesy of Briswatch.

    There are 4 horses in the "Top 20" (which changes every week) that can be considered here:

    Maxfield, a top 2YO last year was going to be one of the favorites in the Breeder's Cup, but was sidelined with a bone-chip off of a maiden win (at this track - CD) and a Monster Grade I win in the Breeder's Futurity in Kentucky (at Keeneland) earning him the highest speed figure in this field, and High Weight by 5 lbs over each and every other horse running. But he has had 11 workouts on his way back from a bone chip (not a hairline fracture, break, or soft tissue injury). A knock against him in this race is that there are no obvious pace setters for this come from behind horse, and he has the outside 10 post in a field of 12. But he won't get trapped. He hasn't raced in 7 months. What's not to like.

    Pneumatic is the #2 horse, has just as many races as Maxfield, and is undefeated. But neither win was a stakes race. But he was way wide in each race. Talented horse will take a step up in this race.

    NY Traffic is the #6. He finished a very respectable 2nd to Wells Bayou in the Louisiana Derby. But Wells Bayou got caught in a speed duel and didn't look super in the Arkansas Derby. Most horses are looking pedestrian next to Nadal these days. This horse is probably fit and is sitting on a good race if he gets a good position. With Paco Lopez aboard, he will likely get it.

    Attachment Rate is the #11. He gets checks and is a very good horse. He has 5 starts, but only one win. He gets John Velasquez, which is a step up from Louis Saez. Maybe hits the Exotics.

    I think Maxfield and NY Traffic are the class of this field, but anything can happen if you don't have a rabbit for these two. NY Traffic has shown some speed, or the #4 Celtic Striker is another possibility.

    In other news, Zenyatta had a filly by Candy Ride.

    The Belmont looks like it will be the race of the year. Preliminary Horses pointed for that race will be:

    Nadal
    Charlatan
    Tiz the Law
    Sole Volante
    Basin
    Farmington Road
    Gouverneur Morris

    At the moment, that includes the top 3 horses (Authentic being #4 and pointed toward the Santa Anita Derby).

    Apparently the Belmont Stakes earlier had been run at 1 1/8 miles twice. Although not a classic distance, it would be an intriguing first leg of the Triple Crown. For those of you thinking that 1 1/4 miles might be a better choice, that would be somewhat redundant with the Kentucky Derby, and it would be a one turn race in the (famous) Belmont chute on that massive track. That would bring back echos of that famous Ruffian/Foolish Pleasure 1 1/4 mile race from that same spot. Not great imagery to start off your triple crown.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Folks,

    The Matt Winn will be raced at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Race 10.
    It looks like it could be an interesting betting race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1353400
    Here are the Past Performances, courtesy of Briswatch.

    There are 4 horses in the "Top 20" (which changes every week) that can be considered here:

    Maxfield, a top 2YO last year was going to be one of the favorites in the Breeder's Cup, but was sidelined with a bone-chip off of a maiden win (at this track - CD) and a Monster Grade I win in the Breeder's Futurity in Kentucky (at Keeneland) earning him the highest speed figure in this field, and High Weight by 5 lbs over each and every other horse running. But he has had 11 workouts on his way back from a bone chip (not a hairline fracture, break, or soft tissue injury). A knock against him in this race is that there are no obvious pace setters for this come from behind horse, and he has the outside 10 post in a field of 12. But he won't get trapped. He hasn't raced in 7 months. What's not to like.

    Pneumatic is the #2 horse, has just as many races as Maxfield, and is undefeated. But neither win was a stakes race. But he was way wide in each race. Talented horse will take a step up in this race.

    NY Traffic is the #6. He finished a very respectable 2nd to Wells Bayou in the Louisiana Derby. But Wells Bayou got caught in a speed duel and didn't look super in the Arkansas Derby. Most horses are looking pedestrian next to Nadal these days. This horse is probably fit and is sitting on a good race if he gets a good position. With Paco Lopez aboard, he will likely get it.

    Attachment Rate is the #11. He gets checks and is a very good horse. He has 5 starts, but only one win. He gets John Velasquez, which is a step up from Louis Saez. Maybe hits the Exotics.

    I think Maxfield and NY Traffic are the class of this field, but anything can happen if you don't have a rabbit for these two. NY Traffic has shown some speed, or the #4 Celtic Striker is another possibility.



    Larry
    DevilHorse

    Maxfield was bumped at the start, but moved up through a tepid pace, and took aim in the stretch and grind past NY Traffic to win the Matt Win Stakes by a length under a lot of stick work; Maxfield drifted in a bit under a right handed stick, but Jose Ortiz switch to a left handed whip and straightened him out. Celtic Striker did take the lead, but yielded partway through the race to a stalking Pneumatic. Pneumatic held bravely into the stretch until giving way to NY Traffic and Maxfield, and finished 3rd. Maxfield was caught 6 wide going into the first turn and about 3 wide coming out of it, so he went some extra distance. A very nice comeback for being off 7 months and a great relief to his owners no doubt; he was your post-time favorite, paying $4.60.

    For those not familiar with the use of the whip by jockeys, it is tough for a jockey to hurt a horse with the whip. But most horses run away from the side where they are hit/touched with the whip. So jockeys can control
    A blind squirrel does run into a nut now and then, and you were given a cold exacta ($23.55) and the top 4 horses, where a $16 Superfecta Box would have paid you $341. Although you can bet $0.10 Superfectas you know.

    It is 4 weeks to the Belmont Stakes, and Maxfield is expected to join Nadal, Charlatan, Tiz the Law, and Sole Volante in the field.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 05-23-2020 at 08:35 PM.

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    No Authentic..gag..

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    No Authentic..gag..
    There are choices being made in the Baffert barn.

    The calculus may include:
    1) I have 3 great horses, Nadal, Charlatan, and Authentic - How can I maximize the money I win during the next 4 weeks? Santa Anita Derby [June 6] is there for the picking to any one of these horses and the Belmont [June 20] is going to be a very tough race.
    2) Authentic is not a large horse (relatively speaking), we may have to be more frugal about where we pick his races (I assume there is no health issue for this horse). We are already qualified for the KY Derby, so what is the rush.
    3) Running in the Santa Anita Derby will give him a Different path to the Derby than the other two, which is what I want ("Baffert thoughts")
    4) This Triple Crown has an asterisk anyway; been there done that twice.
    5) The Belmont is in name only. All the difficulty of the KY Derby (all comers) but not the cache'.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #89

    Belmont Entry Criteria

    I saw for the first time yesterday how they are going to select which of the competing entrants will be selected to run in the Belmont, which is the first of the Triple Crown races this year.

    The Belmont will be run at the non-classic distance of 1 1/8 mile, avoiding being redundant with 1 1/4 Kentucky Derby (and the echo of the Match Race disaster) and 1 3/16 Preakness distances, and starting the triple crown with the climactic 1 1/2 mile distance during warmer weather. Intelligent people can argue, but this was a pretty good choice, leaving open these 3YO horses to be able to race in the Preakness in early October and in the Breeders Cup. A tough, but best decision.

    Here are the criteria:


    1. 16 horses (maximum) in the field
    2. First 8 spots to Highest Lifetime earnings
    3. Next 5 spots to highest lifetime earnings in Non-Restricted Stakes
    4. Final 3 spots chosen by Belmont Stakes Selection Committee

    Comments on the Criteria:

    (1) I’ve been at that chute at the Belmont Park after the 1975 Belmont. You’re not getting more horses in there. But even the most hardened fans will admit that the last 4 horses in the field don’t belong there. Dust Commander, Sea Hero, Mine That Bird's wins are aberrations born from rotten conditions or oversized fields, and not true tests of horse power. Those horses never did anything again or bred true (if they were non-geldings). Many owners of considerable wealth have purchased lesser horses, who were eligible to start (in the top 20), just to scratch in more capable horses that were just outside of the top 20 for the Derby. What a chess game. But the calculus is a bit different now with spot selection.

    (2) Highest Lifetime Earnings – makes basic sense, although there are some races that have huge purses, but not quality fields. But you will get the better horses because the top stakes mostly have had the best horses so far in the 3YO year for these horses. This could include Restricted Races; for example, if there is a race for New York Breds or Kentucky Breds Only for a Billion Dollars, the second place horse will qualify for the Belmont with a few 100 million dollars. These races are allowed under this criterion.

    (3) Non-Restricted Stakes – A restricted race is a state bred race or a race where other horses in their 3YO generation would not have been allowed to compete for the money (unfair advantage). So the Billion dollar statebred race is not allowed for these spots.

    (4) Here is an out for the “Now” or “Hot” horse that doesn’t have enough earnings, that wants to get in, assuming that there are 16 horses that want in. I’d say that there is 0 chance that they won’t have 16 horses initially enter, with a few Also Eligible (AE) horses. This may also be a way to get interesting horses from outside the US, who might have Derby Points, but not the earnings, into this field because they are likely Triple Crown candidates. There are huge dollars spent by Japanese, English, Irish, and Arab buyers at the Kentucky and Saratoga sales each year, and they have to feel that if they have a worthy 3YO, they get a crack at our biggest Classic Races. A foreign owned horse will win a Classic again (remember A.P. Indy was owned by a Japanese industrialist), even though he raced his whole career here. It is traveling from overseas to win here that is tough on the animals; ask Mendelsson.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  10. #90

    Big Speculation on the Belmont

    Apparently split samples of 2 of Bob Baffert's horses from the recent Oaklawn Park meet, came back positive. He had a number of horses tested.
    This could mean that either (or both) of Charlatan and/or Nadal could have a problem making it to the Belmont.

    (You might remember that there was a supposed positive on Justify in the Santa Anita Derby that mysteriously evaporated before Justify's successful Triple Crown bid).

    Could a positive for Charlatan or Nadal change the entry plans for ... Authentic?

    Let the guessing begin.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Authentic needs to be in the Belmont. He gives Baffert his best shot at the TC..IMO..

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Authentic needs to be in the Belmont. He gives Baffert his best shot at the TC..IMO..
    Assuming Baffert doesn't also get suspended.. I don't know what Baffert's thinking is on this. The ownership group of Authentic seem to be Australian based groups "Sf Racing" and Starlight Group (owned a piece of Justify); both with National associations for trainers and racing, but mostly with California stables. So I can see a California bias for general racing, but I agree, not for the Classics.

    However, they are the EXACT ownership group of Charlatan!!! So the decision being made is this ownership group's best chance of maximizing cash in the upcoming month. Since they owned Justify... "Been There; Done That" apparently. They have more complicated decisions.

    Nadal is owned by a different group.

    Here is a new kicker for you to keep an eye on. It has been reported overnight (for me anyway) that the two horses that tested positive includes... Charlatan!! So, if they don't quickly resolve this, and a 60 day ban is upheld, will the ownership group want Authentic to go to the Belmont? I know DevilWin's vote. Authentic certainly belongs.

    Here is an article from the NY Post on the most recent hub bub wrt the testing:
    https://nypost.com/2020/05/27/two-bo...il-drug-tests/


    DevilHorse has a stream of consciousness moment.. (and is starting to refer to himself in the third person)..

    Santa Anita will be in a tough political spot if Authentic races there instead of the Belmont, not unlike what Spend A Buck did years ago. You might recall the infamous Bob Brennan when he offered big bucks to the winner of a couple of NJ preliminary races, then the Kentucky Derby, and then if he "Forego"'d the Preakness to run in the Jersey Derby and attempt to win a huge $2M bonus, which he did. That aberration gave birth to the $5M bonus for a Triple Crown win and smaller bonus for accumulated points for running in all 3 Triple Crown races (the full Bonus was never won to my recollection, while offered; they stopped the offer long before American Pharoah).
    This "Scheme" to siphon off the Kentucky Derby winner into New Jersey's racing scene was the brainchild of Bob Brennan. Brennan had a beautiful sprawling estate in Colts Neck New Jersey called Due Process Stable (drive east on 537; the entrance is still there). Brennan used to sell Junk Bonds and was on TV a lot, flying from his farm to Manhattan on a helicopter, in commercials for his company. Very impressive. Until the Feds caught up with him. He went to jail. Due Process Stable collapsed and was sold off to build houses. Garden State Park, rebuilt into a glitzy palace by Brennan to house the Jersey Derby (which had beautiful horse topiaries and everything) was also sold off for houses; the real estate in expensive Cherry Hill NJ was just too much. Fortunately, Monmouth Park (just 5 or so miles from Due Process) survived for Thoroughbred racing in NJ. Brennan did breed and own a nice horse named Dehere who shows up in some pedigrees. Terry Dehere the basketball player, for whom the horse was named, played at nearby Seton Hall, came from St. Anthony's High School and was coached by Bobby Hurley's Dad. (I knew I could bring this back to basketball). The horse was out of the Secretariat mare Sister Dot. ... More than you wanted to know ...


    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 05-27-2020 at 07:23 AM.

  13. #93
    Latest update on Charlatan..
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...hens_start_123

    It doesn't sound like Authentic would go East no matter what, even though he was not mentioned.

    I would guess that Charlatan was treated with the (legal) Lidocaine (my wife had that) just too close to race day, which accounted for the relatively high level in the sample that was tested. This is not an uncommon occurrence, but they should be smarter about this in a big barn like Baffert's.

    Baffert is acting like this is just another item to navigate and is thinking about running Charlatan in the 7f Woody Stevens. What must the owners be thinking? If Charlatan had started earlier and Nadal later, would Nadal be going to the Woody Stevens?

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #94

    Nadal Injured/Retired

    Bad News out of California. Nadal sustained a Condylar Fracture of his cannon bone after a workout today and has been retired from racing.
    What a brilliant horse; we hardly knew him. You knew something was going to keep all of these brilliant horses from getting to the Kentucky Derby. It is hard to keep these horses sound.

    Short swift, brilliant racing career. Reminds me a bit of Danzig.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #95
    Looks like a relatively small field will be contesting the Santa Anita Derby.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...s_Gold_Cup_123
    No surprise really.
    This race takes any horse out of the Triple Crown conversation, unless you want to have 2 races in 2 weeks, rare for these horses.

    A friend of mine, Jay Leimbach, who writes Thoroughbred and Standardbred articles for magazines, sent out this quip the other day on one the horse email lists:

    On May 23 1936, jockey great Johnny Longden rode Rushaway to win the Latonia Derby,
    one day after he and Rushaway won the Illinois Derby on May 22...! Both races at more than a mile,,, -Jay-


    Those were the days. The Rushaway Stakes was run at Turfway Park in March.

    Expect an Authentic/Honor A.P. Quinella in that one (is this Jai Alai?).
    We'll see if Honor A.P can mount enough of a challenge to Authentic to win this race; he has been training very well toward this race, and he needs the Derby points which usually tips the scales if the Kentucky Derby was nearer (but of course it is not). Honor A.P. is by Honor Code, and he looks like the old man. Honor Code is a strapping, late developing son of A. P. Indy (also a late developer), so this could be a good race (or an Authentic betting opportunity ;^).

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 06-02-2020 at 08:00 AM.

  16. #96

    Arrogate

    Word just came over the wire that the GREAT Arrogate just died at age 7.
    This horse took the world by storm by destroying the fields in the Travers (Stakes Record), Breeder's Cup, Pegasus World Cup, and last to first Dubai World Cup in half a year. That is storied dominance.

    Didn't mature until after the Triple Crown.

    RIP. He leaves 3 crops that will hit the in 2021.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #97

    Santa Anita Derby 2020 - Saturday - 6/6

    The Santa Anita Derby is Saturday.
    Here is the PPs, courtesy of Brisnet:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1341280

    On paper, it looks like Authentic and Honor A.P. are the more talented horses in the race.
    Authentic is the undefeated Bob Baffert colt, who will likely be on the lead and winging, for this 1 1/8 affair.
    Honor A. P. picks up 2 more lbs than Authentic, and has had some nice workouts.
    Authentic has natural speed, and Baffert has had him doing longer workouts exclusively.
    Only a change of tactics, by Honor A.P., or a speed duel, will threaten Authentic I'd think.
    Honor A.P. needs the Derby Points, so he will be ready.
    The others in the race do not look quite as fast as these two.

    Shooters Shoot FINALLY broke his maiden in his fifth start, and then won another for the trainer of Storm The Court (last year's BC Juv winner who has yet to flash the same form).

    Anneau D'or, who was second in the BC Juv, has not regained form. The BC Juv has become the opposite of a Key Race.

    Azul Coast seems too slow, has been off for 3 months (although won his last), but will move up on a muddy track.

    Bonus PPs for:

    The Santa Anita Oaks:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=838300
    Swiss Skydiver vs. an American Pharoah filly that just won by 10 lengths (in the slop). Gamine bails for the Acorn on Belmont day if she's allowed to race.

    The Hollywood Gold Cup:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1676600
    Midcourt, Higher Power, Improbable, Parsimony (back from winning in Meydan) at Classic distance

    The Westchester
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=933240
    Code of Honor (last year's Travers winner) returns.

    The Carter Handicap at Belmont
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1199880
    Mind Control, Vekoma, vs Friesen Fire ooh Fireworks at Big Sandy.

    You guys like extra PPs, or is this a 3YOC only crowd?

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 06-04-2020 at 08:29 AM.

  18. #98
    Santa Anita Derby expert pickers seems to be split on who will win.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._longshots_123

    Those picking Authentic think he'll be loose on the lead.

    Those picking Honor A.P. think that Shooters Shoot will take the lead or soften up Authentic, and leave an opening for Honor A.P.

    Both colts on top have license to improve.

    History suggests true colors start to show in May/June; still others in September.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #99
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    I am staying with Authentic. I think Honor AP will press him, but Authentic pulls away in the final furlong.

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    I am staying with Authentic. I think Honor AP will press him, but Authentic pulls away in the final furlong.
    I think something similar, but Honor AP doesn't catch him in the final furlong.
    Authentic has been brilliant so far, so he deserves the nod.
    There is value in Honor A. P., but last I saw, Alydar is still chasing Affirmed in the Triple Crown races.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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