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  1. #21
    For those who might care (Devilwin?), Authentic had a 4f 47.2 workout this morning.

    No major 3YO KY Derby preps this week.

    Expect it to get busy from here on out.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    That's my guy this year..

  3. #23

    Old Rules and Subtle Breed Changes

    It is tough to pick a Derby horse this early.
    Few of the Top Ten horses even made it to the Kentucky Derby last year.
    Names like Signalman, Mucho, Maximus Mischief, Mihos, Galilean, Gunmetal Gray all gone with the mists of time.
    Probably lots of new shooters to be found too.
    The old rules of having a 2YO start, having a Dosage under 4.00 isn't even mentioned anymore.

    For a while there the 2YO start and Dosage "rules" were almost a self fulfilling prophecy. it was rare that a horse would be entered that violated those rules. Now it is fairly common. I think it is a combination of the breed changing and people daring to challenge those old rules.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #24

    Cafe Pharoah

    One of the ways that the industry drums up support for the Kentucky Derby, and yearling buyers, is by awarding points and Kentucky Derby berths to horses that run in a scant few international 3YO races. Two such races are the upcoming UAE Derby (remember Thunder Snow and Mendelsson [brother to supersire Into Mischief and super race mare Beholder]) and the Hyacinth. Cafe Pharoah gets 30 points, and the KY Derbey berth.

    The Hyancinth was run yesterday in Japan, while the UAE Derby will be run in 2 weeks in Dubai. These horses, while the trip from far off places is arduous, are increasingly US bred, so they have the credentials to win the US classics. You know the US Horse of the Year, Bricks and Mortar is standing on Hokaido island in Japan. Sunday Silence, on of the great world sires, stood in Japan. But I digress.

    One of this years memorable performances to date took place when Cafe Pharoah won the Hyacinth in a similar fashion to Arrogate's Dubai World Cup. Seemingly left at the gate, Cafe Pharoah spotted the field a good 15 or so lengths, then calmly circled the field and won by about 2, going away. It was impressive with only a couple of cracks of the whip at the end of the race. Look for this one to take some money on the first Saturday in May.

    Out of the More Than Ready mare Marys Follies, she having produced 3 out of 4 $100K winners previously out of top stallions, looks to perhaps have her best with her fifth foal. Cafe Pharoah is 3x4 to Mr. Prospector. 3x4 is my favorite cross.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #25

    Authentic Workout

    On 2/24/2020:
    Authentic 10 KYD Points Santa Anita Park Six Furlongs 1.12:80

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #26

    The Fountain of Youth

    Folks,

    Here are the PPs for the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park this weekend:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=2007880

    This race marks the return of one of the Buzz horses from last year, Dennis' Moment. He stumbled leaving the gate in the BC Juvenile never was in it. He has a new pilot for this race since Jose' Ortiz was on a firster turfer last week who balked walking onto the turf course, threw him off, and in the process fractured his hand. He'll be back soon though. Flavien Prat, in from California, will NOT hurt this horse's chances.
    Chance It and As Seen On TV would seem to be logical contenders that race recently.
    There is a maiden winner by Tonalist entered (Country Grammar). Although Tonalist as a sire did not have a great first crop of 2YOs, I've noticed quite a lot of them winning in the past month. Maybe this late maturing son of Tapit instills the same in his sons/daughters. I note that he won his maiden race in January of his 3YO year, and his next start was winning the Peter Pan (in May) and then won the Belmont (then the Jockey Club Gold Cup that year as a 3YO). Might be a longshot possibility. Has a good pilot in Javier Castellano and is trained by Chad Brown.

    Bonus 3YO race is the Hutcheson, which used to be an earlier season lead in to the Florida Preps:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...80&param3=2320

    For the Fillies, it is the Davona Dale, also at Gulfstream Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1434200
    Undefeated Tonalist filly will be your race favorite in this one.

    Dubai Cup is on tap this weekend, but having seen PPs.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #27

    Saudi Cup

    Wow, Maximum Security is the best in the world.
    USA claims 4 of the top 5 places in a $20Mil race.
    Midnight Bisou takes the place.

    Mucho Gusto led the field into and through the stretch and appeared to me to impede Maximum Security twice before MS could avoid MG and make a break for the wire. MS could have won by 5 but did not get a chance to fire with all of the traffic. Worth catching on Youtube or DRF.

    On to next month's Dubai World Cup. Big Money out there for the right horse.

    Larry
    Devilhorse

  8. #28
    Ete Indien wins the Fountain of Youth and looks like a serious horse. Leaving from the 11 hole (a handicap that caused Chance It to scratch) he used his early speed to take the lead in 6 jaunts, and it was over. Never headed and seemed to do it easy, winning by 8.5 lengths. Earned a 117/113 speed figure, depending on which source you like. This is an outrageous number early in the year for a 3YO. Ete Indien is by Summer Front (who is by the top sire War Front); Summer Front raced mainly on the grass, as did War Front, but both seem to sire top flight dirt horses.

    Did Ete Indien need his last race to tighten up?
    Is Tiz The Law really really the leader of this division (beat Ete Indien last time out)?
    This Drama is unfolding; Dennis's Moment exits stage left.

    Stay tuned.

    That nice undefeated Tonalist filly remains undefeated. Tonalist's Shape won the Davona Dale (3YO sister race to the FoY) carrying 4 more pounds than the favorite, winning by 1.5 lengths. She raced greenly and looks like she has some distance ability. The Tonalists look like they mature late but not too late.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #29
    Authentic had a 1.12:80 workout towards this Saturday's San Felipe.


    In addition to the San Felipe (at Santa Anita), the Gotham (Aqueduct), and the Tampa Bay Derby are all in play on Saturday with some top horses.
    All races at 1 1/16 with big Derby points available to the top finishers.

    Chance It ducked the outside post at the Fountain of Youth to take a shot in the Tampa Bay Derby where he will hope to get a smaller field or a better post.
    Sole Volante is planning on being in the Tampa Bay Derby as well.

    Top colt Thousand Words also pointing to San Felipe.
    Word is that Honor A.P. and Storm The Court are also pointing towards this race. San Felipe will be the race of the weekend if these 4 colts are in.
    Nadal worked 7f (at Santa Anita) in a pedestrian 1.25:20, but it is not obvious where he is headed next (probably the Rebel in Arkansas).

    Max Player looks to make it 2 in a row at Aqueduct in the Gotham.

    Word on Dennis's Moment was that he Caught a Quarter in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Catching a Quarter is a common racetrack term for when a horse's hind foot "accidentally" catches one of their front hooves near the quarter (ankle) area and causes a painful gash. Usually this is a relatively minor injury but with horse shoes and a high rate of speed, it could take a few extra weeks to recover. You can hear horses, when they run around in their paddocks, "clicking" their hooves as they let off steam as they run/horse around. Usually it doesn't result in an injury. But in a race it can be a bit more severe. This horse and his connections have had a bit of hard luck between this and last year's BC.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  10. #30

    The Gotham, The Tampa Bay Derby, and The San Felipe

    Folks,

    A busy weekend this Saturday (3/7) on the Derby Trail.

    Here are Past Performances (courtesy of Brisnet) for:

    The Gotham at Aqueduct (says 1 mile - 1 turn):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1313000

    The Tampa Bay Derby (1 1/16 mile - 2 turns):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1866480

    The San Felipe (1 1/16 mile - 2 turns):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1341280

    A brief look at the races:

    In the Gotham, the post time favorite is likely to be Mischevious Alex who has won 2 straight, including the Swale by 7. Has 4 appearances of Secretariat in his pedigree if you like that sort of thing (6X5x6x5). Kendrick Carmouche is an underrated Jockey.
    A few straight-line names in the field..
    Will "Flap Jack" pancake the field?
    Will "Untitled" make a name for himself? Well he could. He seems to have a nice kick, although he finished 4th behind Mischevious Alex.I might have more to add later.

    In the Tampa Bay Derby:
    • This is a big field, but Chance It (who scratched out of a big field in hopes of getting a better post position) did improve his chances a bit. Instead of the 12 post on a short step to the turn, he now has the 4 hole.
    • Sole Volante would appear to be the main competition. The pedestrian bred son of Karakonite finished 3rd to Chance it in the Mucho Macho Man (Chance it's last start) but then came back for a strong win in the Sam Davis. Although modestly bred, there is an easter egg in SV's pedigree, that being a 3x4 inbreeding to the SuperMare Miesque (Classic winner in Europe at 3, first horse to win back to back Breeder's Cups). The Force is Strong with this one I think.
    • For Alydar fans, you might like Mo Mosa, with a 4x5x6 inbreeding to Alydar. Speed figures, not so much.

      A couple of other horses that would need to improve to compete with the top two (exacta box for chalkers).
      Always have to see what Todd Pletcher has; Texas Swing just broke his maiden (second race) with a nice time and some bullet works, but Velasquez took Pletcher's other entry
    • Market Analysis who won at first asking with a good time and also good works. $250K yearling.
    • SpaCity has been improving and has an excellent time, but took 3 races to break his maiden.





    In the San Felipe, This is probably the race of the Day.
    Four strong contenders in this seven horse field, and some lesser but "can't throw out" horses.
    • Honor AP is one for two, but has excellent numbers. His sire Honor Code was a late bloomer. Hasn't been out since October. Looks like sire. Mike Smith aboard; the best big race rider in the sport!!
    • Authentic is DevilWin's pick to win the Presidential Election of 2020. The winner of the Sham stakes has done nothing wrong; similar speed figures to Honor AP. Has the most excellent Drayden Van Dyke in the saddle for the 3rd time with Baffert his conditioner.
    • Thousand Words is another undefeated horse, making his 4th start. Just as good speed figures, but had to claw out each win (a stalker). The inimitable Flavian Prat on board for all of his mounts, with Baffert the Conditioner.
    • Storm The Court is the 2YO champion, and may have needed his last race. Came on at the end and looked like he needed more race track against Nadal at 7f. He gets it today in better fitness and an extra 1 1/16 furlong. If he gets a good start, he will be there at the end. Prat took Thousand Words (probably because of Baffert, not because that colt is better). Storm The Court gets Joel Rosario; an excellent pilot!!

    This will be a battle for point, prestige, and traveling papers. But still the ultimate goal is KY, and the Santa Anita Derby is still ahead so we might not see the best of these colts today. All of these horses have superb riders. You can't handicap based on choices there. Great Race. The best horse in 2 months won't necessarily win.


    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #31

    One Tout's Take on Authentic

    This post is for Devilwin:

    I caught this fresh take on the Top 20 Derby horses with an eyeball description of Authentic's latest workout that I think you'll enjoy.
    Check him out at #5. But the evaluation is not all 'roses'.

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._new_No_1_123#

    Relative to my last post, the author implied free will for Prat to pick Thousand Words over Storm The Court. I've seen a number of times when the jockey picked the wrong horse. Just saying that it doesn't always work out. I remember Heliodoro Gustines was contracted to ride (I suppose his choice to sign the contract) for the Greentree stable and could be on his usual horse name Forego (3 time horse of the year in '74-'76) - same age as Secretariat, but Sec won in '73) [they had a streak of 31 consecutive races together, winning 21 of them] so Jacinto Vasquez (Ruffian's jockey) picked up the mount for a couple of races, and then Willie Shoemaker took over and I don't think left him. It's a funny business.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 03-05-2020 at 09:08 AM.

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Hi Larry
    Bet you and I recall another "speed' horse no one thought could go the added distance don't we. Sticking with Authentic..But I do kinda like Tiz The Law...The name, anyway.

  13. #33
    DevilWin,

    Authentic was Authentic today. He was kept busy by Van Dyke, which surprised me because he had a safe lead. This was a really talented field, but we've seen erratic performances before the Derby before by horses that had enough points, only to peek in May. Authentic looked slight in size next to the second place horse, Honor A.P. The Into Mischief's are precocious, and if Honor A.P. takes after his dad, we can expect this big lumbering colt to continue to develop with time. He could be a really nice one too. Authentic now leads in the Derby points, so he is guaranteed a spot should he maintain health.

    You picked a great bandwagon to be on early. Will be interesting to see if Baffert puts him in for the Santa Anita Derby or just preps him for the Derby. I think 2 months is too long not to race. I hope he seasons him by racing him again. We can't have too much of our stars. We'll see Tiz The Law in the Florida Derby, and then hopefully in the Derby.

    It is a fun year.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    He looked great yesterday. Secretariat was also a big lumbering colt like Honor AP and we know how that turned out. Also Forego was a big guy.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    He looked great yesterday. Secretariat was also a big lumbering colt like Honor AP and we know how that turned out. Also Forego was a big guy.
    Big and lumbering is where the comparison ends. Secretariat of course was by Bold Ruler who was considered a brilliant runner and sire. Bold Ruler of course won the Preakness, (finished 4th in the Derby) but excelled in the sprints including setting a record in the Vosburgh carrying an outrageous 133 lbs. There was great question as to whether he could sire a classic winner since his get would peter out as the races toward the triple crown got longer, but Secretariat was the exception. The Bold Ruler line did find its line extender through Seattle Slew and Secretariat's grandson A.P. Indy.
    Honor A.P.'s dad, as I mentioned before, developed later in his 3YO year. While Secretariat was a 2YO Champion and quite precocious. Bold Ruler also precocious.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Hi Larry
    Bet you and I recall another "speed' horse no one thought could go the added distance don't we. Sticking with Authentic..But I do kinda like Tiz The Law...The name, anyway.
    Re-reading this post, the first horse that came to mind was Bold Forbes, winner of the 1976 KY Derby and Belmont with Angel Cordero aboard. Cordero was extremely proud that he was able to reign in that horse's natural speed enough to have something left at the end. Some horses are just 'hot' and insist on going to the front. If you try to hold them back, they choke down and you get nothing out of them (I know from experience). A great jockey can do amazing things in these stakes races; times don't always tell the story. Belmonts are sometimes very tactical. And so it was with Bold Forbes/Honest Pleasure (half brother to Foolish Pleasure from the year before out of the great mare What A Pleasure).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, Va
    Good stuff!! Thx for all the updates and insights!
    Iím a novice gambler always looking for intel.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by duketaylor View Post
    Good stuff!! Thx for all the updates and insights!
    I’m a novice gambler always looking for intel.
    Your welcome.
    Not getting much feedback as to what is valuable.

    Insights, oh, do you mean tips? Half of what goes on you can know from the program (before the race/on paper).
    Know your breeding, jockeys, trainers, and of course the (race/weather) conditions, tracks, and horses (past performances, who else is running). Great game to get you out of doors. Not exactly golf, and there are few mulligans. But you can get out and walk (to and from the paddock) and it gets your blood rushing now and then. Like golf (looking over the course/greens), looking at the horses tell you a lot. Are they happy, sad, sick, blah; coat good? washed out? ears alert? on their toes? looking around? makes a difference on any given day. You get out of it what you put into it.

    Didn't update folks on the fillies this week; I don't know if that's of interest. KY Oaks is the target for most fillies.
    Bug upset of Lake Avenue in the Busher at Aqueduct.
    Donna Veloce looked really good in the Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita. Three of the past five winners of this race were Midnight Bisou (Finished 2nd in Saudi Cup this year to Maximum Security), Songbird (2016), Stellar Wind (2015). These are BC Cup favorites for their year and this is only a Grade III race; outrageous.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Folks,

    A busy weekend this Saturday (3/7) on the Derby Trail.

    Here are Past Performances (courtesy of Brisnet) for:

    The Gotham at Aqueduct (says 1 mile - 1 turn):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1313000

    The Tampa Bay Derby (1 1/16 mile - 2 turns):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1866480

    The San Felipe (1 1/16 mile - 2 turns):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1341280

    A brief look at the races:

    In the Gotham, the post time favorite is likely to be Mischevious Alex who has won 2 straight, including the Swale by 7. Has 4 appearances of Secretariat in his pedigree if you like that sort of thing (6X5x6x5). Kendrick Carmouche is an underrated Jockey.
    A few straight-line names in the field..
    Will "Flap Jack" pancake the field?
    Will "Untitled" make a name for himself? Well he could. He seems to have a nice kick, although he finished 4th behind Mischevious Alex.I might have more to add later.

    In the Tampa Bay Derby:
    • This is a big field, but Chance It (who scratched out of a big field in hopes of getting a better post position) did improve his chances a bit. Instead of the 12 post on a short step to the turn, he now has the 4 hole.
    • Sole Volante would appear to be the main competition. The pedestrian bred son of Karakonite finished 3rd to Chance it in the Mucho Macho Man (Chance it's last start) but then came back for a strong win in the Sam Davis. Although modestly bred, there is an easter egg in SV's pedigree, that being a 3x4 inbreeding to the SuperMare Miesque (Classic winner in Europe at 3, first horse to win back to back Breeder's Cups). The Force is Strong with this one I think.
    • For Alydar fans, you might like Mo Mosa, with a 4x5x6 inbreeding to Alydar. Speed figures, not so much.

      A couple of other horses that would need to improve to compete with the top two (exacta box for chalkers).
      Always have to see what Todd Pletcher has; Texas Swing just broke his maiden (second race) with a nice time and some bullet works, but Velasquez took Pletcher's other entry
    • Market Analysis who won at first asking with a good time and also good works. $250K yearling.
    • SpaCity has been improving and has an excellent time, but took 3 races to break his maiden.




    Larry
    DevilHorse

    Mischevious Alex won the Gotham (by 2 lengths) in a workmanlike performance for the favorite. His jockey went to work on him early, presumably to keep him interested.

    The Tampa Bay Derby was won by King Guillermo (by 4 3/4 lengths) paying big balloons!! $100.40 for a $2 ticket. That name was not on anyone's radar. He didn't just win, but he demolished the field. Sole Volante was way back (2nd to last) early skimmed the rail to finish 2nd but was never a threat to the winner (Sole Volante was another 2 lengths ahead of the 3rd place horse).

    We talked about Authentic and his big win in the San Felipe. Did I mention that Authentic won by 2 1/4 (It seemed like more)?

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 03-09-2020 at 07:39 AM.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    I donít have knowledge on this topic or anything special to contribute but I did see this article on the racehorse doping scandal and thought yíall would be interested though I expect you are both already aware.

    https://www.espn.com/horse-racing/st...rged-drug-scam

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