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  1. #261
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Here is the more professional view of the Los Alamitos Futurity.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._and_picks_123
    Conclusion, Spielberg should stick to Movies and not Photo Finishes <rimshot>.
    Raise a Red Flag?!

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I certainly put my foot in my mouth with my prediction.. Or did I?
    Well, as a betting race, Spielberg took a lot of money as the second choice. I would not have bet him.
    But Spielberg won a very exciting rendition of the Los Alamitos Futurity, winning a head bob over The Great One in a slow 1:42.2. The Beyer Figure was a pedestrian 81.
    He may still be developing, but I'm waiting for other west coast horses to arrive.
    Here is the chart:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    If you want to watch this exciting race, here it is:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1340412612295630848
    Flavian Prat took Spielberg off the pace a bit, as a stalker, and that may have helped, with the slower pace. Kudos.
    Red Flag was late out of the gate and never threatened.

    I always have my eye on ANY Into Mischief 2YOC first time starters that I come across. Yet another appeared at the Fair Grounds yesterday. Prate made an impressive debut, and was awarded a 90 speed figure (compare that to the 81 of the seasoned Spielberg - remember that these speed figures take track condition, wind, etc.. into account).
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Here is a visual of Prate:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1340440681320353792

    Yet another 2YOC by Into Mischief, named By George, won at Aqueduct. No Beyer handy, in a relatively slow time, but cold conditions. First time starter wins impressively.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    If you liked Authentic, perhaps you'd like like to keep tabs on something out of the same sire that shows promise. We'll surely be seeing something out of the above colts. It will be fun

    At Remington Park, in the Springboard Mile, Senor Buscador, ran an impressive (yet slow) race, that received a 93 Beyer figure (remember the Beyers compensate for many factors). If you're looking for a horse to follow, this is a guy! He has some pedigree out of Mineshaft (A.P. Indy).
    Here is a youtube of the race:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiNqz10uiZk
    He breaks poorly, in this his 2nd lifetime start, it looks like he gives up at least 15 lengths and is out of the picture on the backstretch; he then starts a long rally that takes him 8 wide (insane sweep) and blasts home for a 6 length win.
    The 1:37 4/5 is slow for a mile. Did every other horse collapse in front of him? I don't know, but an 8 wide sweep is crazy; lots of extra distance covered. Made up a ton of ground into a 1:12 6f. He was 15-1, bet down to 3-1 at race time. Someone knew something about this horse... or somebody couldn't read the difference between Todd Fincher and Todd Pletcher.I'm keeping an eye out for this bad boy. Could be a fun horse!!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #262
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Some detailed analysis for you on Saturday's Maxfield race:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...ous_Stakes_123

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    So what do we say about Maxfield's comeback win yesterday?
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    It was professional; he received a VERY good 98 Beyer figure. I don't think the result was ever in doubt.
    Here is the youtube of the race:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waMWN0UoGlE


    There was some discussion after (the race) about Maxfield's next start being possibly the Saudi Cup or Pegasus; I would advise against that. Going from a non-graded stake to a top 10 Global elite Stake for the year is asking a lot for a horse who doesn't have 5 starts on his card. Maxfield enjoys a good reputation, but would he even qualify to be in with those tigers should a slot exist?

    Maxfield was not in top condition (admitted before the race by his trainer) for this race, but he looked great (powerful). No doubt why he was an expensive yearling and is undefeated. Godolphin can retire him at anytime and get high quality mares; but to their credit, they are racing this horse. It is good for the sport. I hope they bring him along a little more slowly than they are talking. Let's hope cooler heads prevail and we see Maxfield in a Grade II or III stake and he builds toward a great 2021.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #263
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    I certainly put my foot in my mouth with my prediction.. Or did I?
    Well, as a betting race, Spielberg took a lot of money as the second choice. I would not have bet him.
    But Spielberg won a very exciting rendition of the Los Alamitos Futurity, winning a head bob over The Great One in a slow 1:42.2. The Beyer Figure was a pedestrian 81.
    He may still be developing, but I'm waiting for other west coast horses to arrive.
    Here is the chart:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    If you want to watch this exciting race, here it is:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1340412612295630848
    Flavian Prat took Spielberg off the pace a bit, as a stalker, and that may have helped, with the slower pace. Kudos.
    Red Flag was late out of the gate and never threatened.

    I always have my eye on ANY Into Mischief 2YOC first time starters that I come across. Yet another appeared at the Fair Grounds yesterday. Prate made an impressive debut, and was awarded a 90 speed figure (compare that to the 81 of the seasoned Spielberg - remember that these speed figures take track condition, wind, etc.. into account).
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Here is a visual of Prate:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1340440681320353792

    Yet another 2YOC by Into Mischief, named By George, won at Aqueduct. No Beyer handy, in a relatively slow time, but cold conditions. First time starter wins impressively.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    If you liked Authentic, perhaps you'd like like to keep tabs on something out of the same sire that shows promise. We'll surely be seeing something out of the above colts. It will be fun

    At Remington Park, in the Springboard Mile, Senor Buscador, ran an impressive (yet slow) race, that received a 93 Beyer figure (remember the Beyers compensate for many factors). If you're looking for a horse to follow, this is a guy! He has some pedigree out of Mineshaft (A.P. Indy).
    Here is a youtube of the race:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiNqz10uiZk
    He breaks poorly, in this his 2nd lifetime start, it looks like he gives up at least 15 lengths and is out of the picture on the backstretch; he then starts a long rally that takes him 8 wide (insane sweep) and blasts home for a 6 length win.
    The 1:37 4/5 is slow for a mile. Did every other horse collapse in front of him? I don't know, but an 8 wide sweep is crazy; lots of extra distance covered. Made up a ton of ground into a 1:12 6f. He was 15-1, bet down to 3-1 at race time. Someone knew something about this horse... or somebody couldn't read the difference between Todd Fincher and Todd Pletcher.I'm keeping an eye out for this bad boy. Could be a fun horse!!

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    More about Prate, and another Into Mischief name Mandaloun.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...e_on_debut_123

    What a year Into Mischief is having. It sometimes takes a few years to see what types of mares (sires, physical attributes) it takes to best cross with sires, but they surely have a Nick with IM.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #264
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Another of those unraced 2YOs appearing. This time it is a Pletcher horse, Shaftesbury, at Gulfstream Park, this Sunday (12/20/2020) in Race 3, but on the Turf! Not sure what this suggests for his Derby prospects, but perhaps he wasn't liking the dirt that much.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...80&param3=1600
    Top Pletcher jock, and top on the overall jockey list, Irad Ortiz is up.

    There is another Pletcher horse, Mutaraafeq, in the field, a Shadwell stable homebred that could be any kind of horse.
    Also Lucky Law, with nothing but bullet works!!!, that could be a monster. I'd expect this one to take some money. Trained by Patrick Biancone (remember Sole Volente in Florida this year; could be another). Hunch bet for me, given that "Law"rence is my given name.
    These 3 are first time starters. Mutaraafeq is a roan (bet on the grey, even if you can't pronounce his name).

    Law
    DevilHorse
    None of these horses won.
    The closest was Lucky Law who finished second.
    Quite often, first time starters "WAKE UP" in their second start, which is a corollary from the betting tip (somewhere earlier in the thread) "Don't bet a horse doing something for the first time", and another corollary to consider big improvement in a second time out starter (with good works and breeding since he NOW knows what to expect..).

    [uh oh, DevilHorse is going off the rails again..] Obviously, any first time starter is doing something for the first time, and you do have such things as undefeated horses, so that betting tip doesn't work for such horses.

    There are other horse "sayings" (buying tip) like "don't buy a horse with 4 white feet", which has its "footing" in some very sound veterinary science. White socks (which are often connected to white hooves) are often tougher to keep healthy. Anecdotally, and probably in some veterinary book somewhere, if a horse gets a fever, the hair on the white hoof will come off, but not the bay/black hoof, or white hooves/coronets with black spots. White hooves are tougher to keep healthy (i.e., cracks in the hooves). Trainers/owners/buyers know this. Raceway/Track maxims are often embedded with some morsel of truth. The whole truth, maybe not, but they provide a guideline. There is poetry written about how bad it was to have ever increasing white feet in a horse:

    One white foot, try him
    Two white feet, buy him
    Three white feet, put him in the dray
    Four white feet, give him away
    Four white feet and a white nose
    Take off his hide and feed him to the crows!

    One, buy me
    Two, try me
    Three, shy me
    Four, fly me


    But then Secretariat had 3 white feet; his owners bred him and didn't choose him.

    Use the betting tips as guidance to alert you to opportunities. They are not rules.
    This game will make fools out of all of us.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #265
    As we close out 2020, we have some hot racing going on at Santa Anita, which just opened. Please note that I saw an article that suggested that the track is very deep at SA which might hurt the come from behind horses; that with the new whipping rules might help horses on the front end.

    The big race for the weekend will be the RunHappy Malibu (Sat Dec 26, 2020 Race 10).
    Of course, you've been wondering, why haven't I heard about RunHappy lately?
    (actually you probably could care less since his 2YOs have not been winning and they haven't been paying out the $100K bonus they've been touting, but I digress...).

    Yes, the big showdown between the big upstart Nashville and the return to the races monster Charlatan.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1676600

    When last we saw Nashville, he was setting a track record at Keeneland on the undercard for the Breeder's Cup. This undefeated 3YO ran faster than the Breeder's Cup Sprint Champion that day. This race is one furlong longer at the 7f distance. The track will not be lightning fast, but will be deep as I mentioned. Nashville was not asked in his last race.

    The supporting cast will include Charlatan, also undefeated, but placed 9th through a disqualification in the Arkansas Derby because of a positive drug test. Supposedly a slight positive due to a lidocaine leach from the hands of his handler through the tongue tie. The actual measurement was ridiculously small, but any measurement was enough to disqualify. Gamine also tested positive that day. Charlatan later suffered a Condylar fracture of the ankle and missed the Belmont (and remainder of the Triple Crown trail); but he is back!!! And he is working smartly back.

    Also in the field are 3 lesser, but respectable colts:
    Collusion Illusion, a colt until recently was undefeated against his age group, but faltered when taking on older. But today is 3YOC's only again.
    Thousand Words, no stranger to our readers here. Which version of him will show up? Hard to recommend him with 2 more pounds against the likes of Nashville and Charlatan.
    Independence Hall, was on the early Triple Crown trail, but was apparently injured. Won a recent Optional Claimer, so is fit and ready to improve.

    If I had one ticket, I'd go Nashville, Charlatan, Independence Hall for a Trifecta.

    Also, for the YMM Beer crossover readers, on Sunday, here is a Hunchbet.
    In the 3rd Race at Santa Anita, one of the better runners is: Beer Can Man in the Eddie Logan stakes for 2YO on the Turf.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...40&param3=1755

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 12-25-2020 at 12:48 PM.

  6. #266
    Here is a special Youtube treat.

    This is the 1991 Deputy Minister, with 4YO top sprinter Housebuster and 5YO Shuttleman in a speed duel, with KY Derby Winner and BC Classic Winner Unbridled (a route runner), making his 4YO Debut falling to last at the start of the race. Like tomorrow's Malibu, this is a 7f race where you could have a speed duel. Did class beat speed?

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...KwrrS9_zrjL2l7


    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #267
    Lookee here. In today's (12/26/2020) Tropical Park Derby, Race 8 Gulfstream Park, we see the return of Sole Volente'.
    This doesn't qualify as a tip race, where a tune-up is created for a top horse, but it is an interesting race.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1147360

    Sole Volente', if you recall, likes to come from far off the pace. This particular race is a turf race, which are usually less pace oriented and are made for off the pace horses. Sole Volente's first 2 starts were on the turf, so they thought that he was ultimately a turf horse anyway (by breeding or behavior) and he was 2 for 2 with excellent figures. His best races were off of lay-offs (although it isn't a rule - after all, he didn't win the KY Derby off a 2 month layoff, but that is a forgiveable sin). Regular rider Luca Panici will be up; not a big winner, but he does know this horse. I don't think you will get 4-1 morning line odds.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #268
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Lookee here. In today's (12/26/2020) Tropical Park Derby, Race 8 Gulfstream Park, we see the return of Sole Volente'.
    This doesn't qualify as a tip race, where a tune-up is created for a top horse, but it is an interesting race.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1147360

    Sole Volente', if you recall, likes to come from far off the pace. This particular race is a turf race, which are usually less pace oriented and are made for off the pace horses. Sole Volente's first 2 starts were on the turf, so they thought that he was ultimately a turf horse anyway (by breeding or behavior) and he was 2 for 2 with excellent figures. His best races were off of lay-offs (although it isn't a rule - after all, he didn't win the KY Derby off a 2 month layoff, but that is a forgiveable sin). Regular rider Luca Panici will be up; not a big winner, but he does know this horse. I don't think you will get 4-1 morning line odds.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Sole Volente' returned, but only had an even performance and finished in the pack. He had no kick, finishing 6th.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #269
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    As we close out 2020, we have some hot racing going on at Santa Anita, which just opened. Please note that I saw an article that suggested that the track is very deep at SA which might hurt the come from behind horses; that with the new whipping rules might help horses on the front end.

    The big race for the weekend will be the RunHappy Malibu (Sat Dec 26, 2020 Race 10).
    Of course, you've been wondering, why haven't I heard about RunHappy lately?
    (actually you probably could care less since his 2YOs have not been winning and they haven't been paying out the $100K bonus they've been touting, but I digress...).

    Yes, the big showdown between the big upstart Nashville and the return to the races monster Charlatan.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1676600

    When last we saw Nashville, he was setting a track record at Keeneland on the undercard for the Breeder's Cup. This undefeated 3YO ran faster than the Breeder's Cup Sprint Champion that day. This race is one furlong longer at the 7f distance. The track will not be lightning fast, but will be deep as I mentioned. Nashville was not asked in his last race.

    The supporting cast will include Charlatan, also undefeated, but placed 9th through a disqualification in the Arkansas Derby because of a positive drug test. Supposedly a slight positive due to a lidocaine leach from the hands of his handler through the tongue tie. The actual measurement was ridiculously small, but any measurement was enough to disqualify. Gamine also tested positive that day. Charlatan later suffered a Condylar fracture of the ankle and missed the Belmont (and remainder of the Triple Crown trail); but he is back!!! And he is working smartly back.

    Also in the field are 3 lesser, but respectable colts:
    Collusion Illusion, a colt until recently was undefeated against his age group, but faltered when taking on older. But today is 3YOC's only again.
    Thousand Words, no stranger to our readers here. Which version of him will show up? Hard to recommend him with 2 more pounds against the likes of Nashville and Charlatan.
    Independence Hall, was on the early Triple Crown trail, but was apparently injured. Won a recent Optional Claimer, so is fit and ready to improve.

    If I had one ticket, I'd go Nashville, Charlatan, Independence Hall for a Trifecta.

    Also, for the YMM Beer crossover readers, on Sunday, here is a Hunchbet.
    In the 3rd Race at Santa Anita, one of the better runners is: Beer Can Man in the Eddie Logan stakes for 2YO on the Turf.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...40&param3=1755

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Super exciting showdown.. for about 5 furlongs. As Nashville spit the bit at that point. Charlatan showed he was the real deal as he posted a blistering 107 Beyer, to win by almost 5.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    The race had outrageous fractions, and Charlatan lived to tell about it. Will Charlatan stay in the sprints?
    Collusion Illusion looked good, finishing 3rd, and we'll see where he goes from here.

    In the San Antonio Handicap, Mucho Gusto returned, but faded to 4th. He hadn't been seen since the Saudi Cup last year and definitely needed the race. He might be headed back overseas.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Larry

  10. #270
    Oh Man, Tiz The Law has been retired.
    Apparently he hurt himself after a work-out and further training/racing could have caused a catastrophic injury.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...hford_Stud_123

    There is no end to the list of the best horses left in training, so I'll spare you that.

    The New Year's coming and new horses to meet.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #271
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Aunt Pearl on the grass. I think the other two wear olds will have to prove themselves next year.

    I am interested in whether you watched the Kentucky Downs races this year. I thought that was the most fun meet of the year. Up and down, right and left turns was trust fascinating to me. The horses coming out of those races often out ran their odds. I even placed a very small wager on Harvey’s Little Goil, who finished third among the best in the world. While the Kentucky Supreme Court’s decision about the slot machines, oh I’m sorry, “historical horse racing machines,” may screw up the huge purses in the future, I am excited about that meet next year. The purse structure assures the best trainers will bring some of their best grass horses.

    One final comment is please keep the thread alive, more people need to look at this sport. With interstate gambling expanding and better television coverage it’s a fun way to pass time.

    If you have handicapping tips or betting strategies I for one would be interested. By the way, the NYRA experts’ Breeder’s Cup picks were awful. I think Andy and Paul maybe each had one winner on Saturday. I watched more TVG than NBC so I am not sure how their experts did.

    Sorry for this rambling, stream of consciousness reply.
    Hey TDMMDI,

    Harvey's Lil Goil is racing today at Belmont, Race 6, in the Beaugay:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=800316
    The race should be on Fox America's Day At The Races - FS2.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #272
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Hey TDMMDI,

    Harvey's Lil Goil is racing today at Belmont, Race 6, in the Beaugay:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=800316
    The race should be on Fox America's Day At The Races - FS2.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    The Goil gets the Spoils!
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #273
    In overseas news, Sodashi, the all white filly, lost her first race, finishing 8th in the Japan Oaks:
    https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2...-g1-title.html

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #274
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Why is this in the 2020 thread, or did I have one too many cocktails?

  15. #275
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Why is this in the 2020 thread, or did I have one too many cocktails?
    oops. Maybe I did. That's the problem with the 2020 thread re-appearing.. they look too similar. I'll try to do better.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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