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  1. #241
    I like this updated 2YO list because it also lists (some) targeted next starts.
    We'll see if they continue to update this URL or just keep issuing another.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/p/...021_Contenders

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #242

    Good Racing on Saturday 12/5/2020

    We have some nice racing on Saturday 12/5/2020:

    At Aqueduct (note that the track is predicted to be very sloppy):

    Race 4 is the Remsen for 2YOs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=525200
    Looks like Pickin' Time vs. Ten For Ten. Pickin' Time has beaten Ten For Ten, but Ten For Ten appears to like the slop!

    Race 6 is the Go For Wand (Fillies, 3YO and Up):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=787800
    Longshot special pick is Stand For The Flag; hasn't been out for 9 months, but pedigree LOVES the slop.

    Race 9 is the Demoseille for 2YO Fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1181700
    Malathaat is the clear favorite.

    Race 10 is the Cigar Mile:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1313000
    This race includes the very good Firenze Fire, who is perhaps the most successful horse to come out of the Jason Servis fiasco. King Guillermo appears for the first time since the Arkansas Derby; he has speed and shows a bullet workout.

    At Los Alamitos:

    The Starlet (2YO fillies) has Princess Noor (losing favorite in this year's Breeder's Cup for fillies) and Astute (2YO filly maiden wowzer):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=767600

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 12-03-2020 at 08:42 AM.

  3. #243

    Unraced 2YOs To Watch Out For

    OK, looking for 2YOs for the Kentucky Derby that haven't raced yet? Yes, I know, that is far fetched for those of us who are not 'in the know'. This article gives us something to look at. Good breeding, High Prices, Top Trainers! One thing to know is that many of these 2YOs do not stand up to the rigors of early training/racing and fair better by starting later in their lives. Anatomically, their knees have not matured until they are 3YOs, and that causes lots of grief when too much stress is put on them. So maybe one of these horses has the right ticket to get to Louisville, when the vaccines are blooming!

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._prospects_123

    BTW, nobody is making you commit to one of these horses now, unless you are betting a Derby Futures Pool.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #244
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    We have some nice racing on Saturday 12/5/2020:

    At Aqueduct (note that the track is predicted to be very sloppy):

    Race 4 is the Remsen for 2YOs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=525200
    Looks like Pickin' Time vs. Ten For Ten. Pickin' Time has beaten Ten For Ten, but Ten For Ten appears to like the slop!

    Race 6 is the Go For Wand (Fillies, 3YO and Up):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=787800
    Longshot special pick is Stand For The Flag; hasn't been out for 9 months, but pedigree LOVES the slop.

    Race 9 is the Demoseille for 2YO Fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1181700
    Malathaat is the clear favorite.

    Race 10 is the Cigar Mile:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1313000
    This race includes the very good Firenze Fire, who is perhaps the most successful horse to come out of the Jason Servis fiasco. King Guillermo appears for the first time since the Arkansas Derby; he has speed and shows a bullet workout.

    At Los Alamitos:

    The Starlet (2YO fillies) has Princess Noor (losing favorite in this year's Breeder's Cup for fillies) and Astute (2YO filly maiden wowzer):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=767600

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    What a day:

    Sloppy track at Aqueduct:

    In the Remsen, Pickin Time did not look interested in racing today. Ten for Ten, with the super slop line, did come to race, but he could not hold off the son of Wicked Strong named Brooklyn Strong in a great stretch duel. These two bobbed heads for the length of the stretch, and were 9 lengths ahead of the rest of the field. Brooklyn Strong cost 5000 bucks! Brooklyn Strong will no doubt get a shot at some bigger prize money, but the weather probably had something to do with this.

    The Go For Wand was won by Sharp Starr over Portal Creek in another neck win. Nice competitive racing.

    The Demoiselle was an interesting race. It looked like the favorite Malathaat was going to be stuck on the rail, back about 5 lengths at the head of the stretch. But she found a seem to pull to the middle of the track and just ground to the lead and won by 3/4 of a length. This filly has all of the ingredients to be a good one. She has pedigree, looks, now experience in tough conditions, top trainer, etc..

    The Cigar Mile, Firenze Fire was scratched, King Guillermo went out fast, but couldn't keep up. A Fast pace in the slop is not a good recipe; the track played slow the whole day. True Timber won the day.

    At Los Alamitos, in the Starlet, Princess Noor looked like she would take over at the head of the stretch, but Victor Espinoza sensed a problem and pulled her up. Astute never seemed comfortable and was no factor. Another Baffert horse, Varda, won the race at almost 18-1. Princess Noor X-rayed OK, and has an irritated soft tissue injury; she'll be OK.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #245
    A couple of add on notes:

    Princess Noor has been retired. She is fine. She will be bred this upcoming season, which starts in February 2021.
    I had several horses with soft tissue injuries. (ligament or tendon). They were never the same.

    Also, flying below the radar, a horse mentioned in this forum, Jesus' Team won a race at Gulfstream Park yesterday. Although the money was good ($150K), the conditions made JT the odds on favorite.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Jesus Team had the best figure on the GP card (97).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #246

    Maxfield Continuing to Work at The Fair Grounds

    Horse name Maxfield
    Activity type Workout
    Activity date 12-06-2020
    Track Fair Grounds
    Surface Dirt (Gate)
    Distance 4 Furlongs
    Workout type Breezing
    Workout time 0:47.20
    Track condition Fast

    Sharp 4f. Perhaps getting him ready for something.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #247
    Here is some discussion of the Pegasus 2021.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...of_winning_123

    This is an interesting field.
    How will Mucho Gusto do after the long lay-off?
    How will Charlatan do as he returns from his injury?
    (will the above two have a prep race? It would have to be within a couple of weeks.)

    Knicks Go, in his new barn and form, would have to go longer, but he probably can (unlike the Knicks).
    Is King Guillermo rounding into form?
    Will there be an international entrant since this is a World Cup race (does Mucho Gusto count?).

    At some point, I'll have to transition to a Horse Racing 2021 Folder. Should any races (like this one) go directly into that folder now?) or just wait for posts of that year? Having access to some earlier posts is useful I think.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #248
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    OK, looking for 2YOs for the Kentucky Derby that haven't raced yet? Yes, I know, that is far fetched for those of us who are not 'in the know'. This article gives us something to look at. Good breeding, High Prices, Top Trainers! One thing to know is that many of these 2YOs do not stand up to the rigors of early training/racing and fair better by starting later in their lives. Anatomically, their knees have not matured until they are 3YOs, and that causes lots of grief when too much stress is put on them. So maybe one of these horses has the right ticket to get to Louisville, when the vaccines are blooming!

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._prospects_123

    BTW, nobody is making you commit to one of these horses now, unless you are betting a Derby Futures Pool.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    A couple of these unraced 2YOC's are about to become raced. Both horses will be on the card this Saturday (12/12/20) at Gulfstream Park.

    Prime Factor ($900K) will be starting in Maiden Race 2.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...920&param3=960
    Of perhaps greater interest is a hunch bet, Dr. Duke, a $250K one time starter; nothing else to recommend.
    PF is out of the Pletcher barn; there is another Pletcher horse, bought for $285K, in the race.

    Alexander Valley ($2.15M) will be starting in Maiden Race 7 for Bill Mott.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1003940
    If you like names, another firster is American Law ($200K) by Constitution.

    The big barns have moved to florida where the 2YOs can train in the sunshine and prepare for the January preps. There are still some early 3YO races up north in January coming up though. The Road To The Roses is just about to start.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #249

    Justify and Baffert

    To those of you with long memories, there was a pending matter pertaining to a Drug positive in the Santa Anita Derby won by Justify before his Kentucky Derby. The drug positive did not come back till well after the Kentucky Derby, so Justify could not have been held out of that race.

    So, several facts have come to light:
    1) The offending drug, apparently was in the feed and a number of horses were affected.
    2) The offending drug, Scopolamine, is a minor drug that is apparently not performance enhancing
    3) While waiting for the decision on whether Justify should still be penalized, California decided to de-penalize horses caught with Scopolamine in their system (so what was the big deal).

    So this was much ado about nothing, but the second place horse's connections still wants their first place money. And so it goes.

    Initially, Bob Baffert was under a cloud because a number of his horses tested positive for this substance; but apparently, as this story evolved, sanctioning him was not considered.

    https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...-hoppertunity/

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  10. #250
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    A couple of these unraced 2YOC's are about to become raced. Both horses will be on the card this Saturday (12/12/20) at Gulfstream Park.

    Prime Factor ($900K) will be starting in Maiden Race 2.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...920&param3=960
    Of perhaps greater interest is a hunch bet, Dr. Duke, a $250K one time starter; nothing else to recommend.
    PF is out of the Pletcher barn; there is another Pletcher horse, bought for $285K, in the race.

    Alexander Valley ($2.15M) will be starting in Maiden Race 7 for Bill Mott.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1003940
    If you like names, another firster is American Law ($200K) by Constitution.

    The big barns have moved to florida where the 2YOs can train in the sunshine and prepare for the January preps. There are still some early 3YO races up north in January coming up though. The Road To The Roses is just about to start.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Prime Factor looked like he is a horse to be reckoned with. Winning by 8 in a very respectable 1:10.1.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    This horse looks like every part the real deal. He will no doubt enter the early Florida Stakes feeders toward the KY Derby. [Jan 30, 2021 - Holy Bull. Feb 6, 2021 - Sam F. Davis.]
    Dr. Duke led the first half of the race, but faded to third.

    Alexander Valley (and American Law) looked like duds from a stakes caliber perspective. I'm sure they'll try again soon to establish some dirt cred.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    This was a good race for the 2nd time starter maiden tip I suggested a while back. Donegal Bay looked strong; the expensive colt did not have impressive work outs, so tough to bet.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #251

    Maxfield Enters

    WoHo, Maxfield drops in the box.

    He is entered this Saturday, 12/19/2020, Race 13 at the Fair Grounds.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1838200

    Additionally, he had an extra work this morning that does not appear in this PP:
    Horse name Maxfield
    Activity type Workout
    Activity date 12-13-2020
    Track Fair Grounds
    Surface Dirt
    Distance 4 Furlongs
    Workout type Breezing
    Workout time 0:48.80
    Track condition Fast

    For those not tracking this horse, this is the UNDEFEATED Maxfield, who was so well thought of on the Triple Crown trail, but was derailed due to injury earlier this year. He made a victorious return in May in the Matt Wynn stakes, but disappeared again, until now. And he gets an 8 lb break because of the conditions of this race, against older competitors. There are graded stakes winners in here, albeit not top horses. Could this be a set up race? I wouldn't call it that; too high a quality with stakes horses involved. But if Maxfield is healthy, he should win. But keep an eye on Sonneman who is a quality closer as well.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #252

    Jockey Analysis

    Here is an interesting, albeit flawed analysis of the top jockeys from this year:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...takes_Wins_123

    IMHO this data is flawed because it is missing the number of Graded Stakes starts. Without that, you can't normalize (find the average per start in Graded Stakes) per jockey. I would presume that Mike Smith had fewer starts than most of the jockeys in the table (due to his age). So his normalized numbers (Graded Stakes Wins per start) would have been very impressive.

    A comparison with previous year's numbers (and perhaps ordinals [i.e., positions on the list]) would have been nice.

    I think that this list is very fluid and should not be pinned on your refridgerator. Kendrick Caramouche was kicking around Parx 2 years ago and is an up and comer. He just won his first Grade 1 a week ago. Umberto Rispoli has exploded on the California circuit over the past half year, and he isn't on the list. Some of the guys on the list are contracted to the super rich stables and are locked into great horses, and will have inflated numbers as a result. These are all excellent pilots when it comes down to it, but you have to fit the horse. An experienced jockey will make fewer mistakes, and has a better chance of 'surviving' a bad draw or break.

    Happy Chanukah from Santa MonicAnita

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #253
    More late 2YO stakes as we close out 2020.
    Could there be KY Derby contenders at Remington Park?
    You never know..

    The Springboard Mile is being run at 1 Mile this Saturday, at a time when I'll be asleep; but I have a DVR!
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1987680

    Here is a view of the race:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...board_Mile_123

    They don't even mention #1 Senor Buscador. Has a high rating, undefeated, high percentage trainer, good sire. It is obviously a wide open race with a lot of suspects rather than prospects.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #254
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    More late 2YO stakes as we close out 2020.
    Could there be KY Derby contenders at Remington Park?
    You never know..

    The Springboard Mile is being run at 1 Mile this Saturday, at a time when I'll be asleep; but I have a DVR!
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1987680

    Here is a view of the race:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...board_Mile_123

    They don't even mention #1 Senor Buscador. Has a high rating, undefeated, high percentage trainer, good sire. It is obviously a wide open race with a lot of suspects rather than prospects.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    A more prestigious race, with perhaps only one obvious contender is the Los Alamitos Futurity.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=614080

    Yes, Spielberg could develop into a nice colt, but he has been entered above his weight class and has only been getting checks cleaning up against superior horses; maybe Flavian Prat can get more out of this horse. He broke his maiden at a mile, so perhaps that is a better distance for him.
    I would bet Red Flag over Positivity in this one.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #255
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    WoHo, Maxfield drops in the box.

    He is entered this Saturday, 12/19/2020, Race 13 at the Fair Grounds.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1838200

    Additionally, he had an extra work this morning that does not appear in this PP:
    Horse name Maxfield
    Activity type Workout
    Activity date 12-13-2020
    Track Fair Grounds
    Surface Dirt
    Distance 4 Furlongs
    Workout type Breezing
    Workout time 0:48.80
    Track condition Fast

    For those not tracking this horse, this is the UNDEFEATED Maxfield, who was so well thought of on the Triple Crown trail, but was derailed due to injury earlier this year. He made a victorious return in May in the Matt Wynn stakes, but disappeared again, until now. And he gets an 8 lb break because of the conditions of this race, against older competitors. There are graded stakes winners in here, albeit not top horses. Could this be a set up race? I wouldn't call it that; too high a quality with stakes horses involved. But if Maxfield is healthy, he should win. But keep an eye on Sonneman who is a quality closer as well.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Updated Link for PPs
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1838200

    Do these links work for you guys?

  16. #256

    Pegasus World Cup Update

    Latest Role Call of Pegasus World Cup probables/possibles and where you might find them. https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ds_Preview_123
    Of course, Maxfield can be found at the Fair Grounds this Saturday.



    A review of the Top 2YO Colts as we turn the page toward 2021:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...Division_I_123

    A review of the Top 2YO Fillies going into 2020:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...th_America_123

    New maidens are happening all the time, as well as injuries, so the lists will change. Who was Nadal or Charlatan at this time last year? Just an equine meteor passing through.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #257
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    WoHo, Maxfield drops in the box.

    He is entered this Saturday, 12/19/2020, Race 13 at the Fair Grounds.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1838200

    Additionally, he had an extra work this morning that does not appear in this PP:
    Horse name Maxfield
    Activity type Workout
    Activity date 12-13-2020
    Track Fair Grounds
    Surface Dirt
    Distance 4 Furlongs
    Workout type Breezing
    Workout time 0:48.80
    Track condition Fast

    For those not tracking this horse, this is the UNDEFEATED Maxfield, who was so well thought of on the Triple Crown trail, but was derailed due to injury earlier this year. He made a victorious return in May in the Matt Wynn stakes, but disappeared again, until now. And he gets an 8 lb break because of the conditions of this race, against older competitors. There are graded stakes winners in here, albeit not top horses. Could this be a set up race? I wouldn't call it that; too high a quality with stakes horses involved. But if Maxfield is healthy, he should win. But keep an eye on Sonneman who is a quality closer as well.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Some detailed analysis for you on Saturday's Maxfield race:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...ous_Stakes_123

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #258
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    OK, looking for 2YOs for the Kentucky Derby that haven't raced yet? Yes, I know, that is far fetched for those of us who are not 'in the know'. This article gives us something to look at. Good breeding, High Prices, Top Trainers! One thing to know is that many of these 2YOs do not stand up to the rigors of early training/racing and fair better by starting later in their lives. Anatomically, their knees have not matured until they are 3YOs, and that causes lots of grief when too much stress is put on them. So maybe one of these horses has the right ticket to get to Louisville, when the vaccines are blooming!

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._prospects_123

    BTW, nobody is making you commit to one of these horses now, unless you are betting a Derby Futures Pool.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Another of those unraced 2YOs appearing. This time it is a Pletcher horse, Shaftesbury, at Gulfstream Park, this Sunday (12/20/2020) in Race 3, but on the Turf! Not sure what this suggests for his Derby prospects, but perhaps he wasn't liking the dirt that much.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...80&param3=1600
    Top Pletcher jock, and top on the overall jockey list, Irad Ortiz is up.

    There is another Pletcher horse, Mutaraafeq, in the field, a Shadwell stable homebred that could be any kind of horse.
    Also Lucky Law, with nothing but bullet works!!!, that could be a monster. I'd expect this one to take some money. Trained by Patrick Biancone (remember Sole Volente in Florida this year; could be another). Hunch bet for me, given that "Law"rence is my given name.
    These 3 are first time starters. Mutaraafeq is a roan (bet on the grey, even if you can't pronounce his name).

    Law
    DevilHorse

  19. #259
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    More late 2YO stakes as we close out 2020.
    Could there be KY Derby contenders at Remington Park?
    You never know..

    The Springboard Mile is being run at 1 Mile this Saturday, at a time when I'll be asleep; but I have a DVR!
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1987680

    Here is a view of the race:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...board_Mile_123

    They don't even mention #1 Senor Buscador. Has a high rating, undefeated, high percentage trainer, good sire. It is obviously a wide open race with a lot of suspects rather than prospects.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Here is something really interesting about the 2021 Kentucky Derby.
    Did you know that there will be NO LASIX allowed for entrants in the KYD?
    Additionally, no KYD points will be awarded to horses who place in Kentucky Derby prep races!
    This article lays it out.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...rby_points_123

    Lasix (Furosemide) is a common diuretic; it dries you out. People take it. It is used for horses the "bleed", but it apparently also improves race performance (by losing excess fluid weight) when administered several hours before a race. All horses supposedly bleed a little (in their lungs during a race due to stress), but it takes an observable level of bleeding, using a scope by a veterinarian, to put a horse on the Lasix list.

    Given tonight's Springboard Mile, Derby Points will be left on the table, unless a horse manages to finish 2nd and 3rd, but those are loong odds.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  20. #260
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    A more prestigious race, with perhaps only one obvious contender is the Los Alamitos Futurity.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=614080

    Yes, Spielberg could develop into a nice colt, but he has been entered above his weight class and has only been getting checks cleaning up against superior horses; maybe Flavian Prat can get more out of this horse. He broke his maiden at a mile, so perhaps that is a better distance for him.
    I would bet Red Flag over Positivity in this one.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Here is the more professional view of the Los Alamitos Futurity.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._and_picks_123
    Conclusion, Spielberg should stick to Movies and not Photo Finishes <rimshot>.
    Raise a Red Flag?!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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