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  1. #181
    Wow, Tiz The Law to skip the Preakness and target the BC Classic!
    Is one month not long enough for this horse to recover?
    Is it expected that there isn't enough time to run 3 1.25 mile races within 2 months of high quality, so they dropped the middle one?
    Who knows.

    Authentic is still looking towards the Preakness. A Baffert KY Derby winner has never lost the Preakness.
    Art Collector and Thousand Words are still pointing towards this race.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #182
    Is there any interest out there in non-Kentucky Derby (related) races? I could give less or more of these updates. Remember, all of these races provides a great showcase for Kentucky Derby talent.

    The best race this weekend is:

    A nice race prep for the BC Classic at Santa Anita this Saturday (9/26/2020) in the 10th race. Maximum Security takes on Improbable. Both had great last efforts, are sporting their old jockeys, and are trained by Bob Baffert. Expect the NEXT race (BC Classic) to be a better effort; this is a prep race. You may recall that in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Improbable was the Kentucky Derby favorite (after Court House was scratched), but it was Maximum Security who finished first (and was then disqualified); this is the first time they are meeting since then. Maximum Security has only lost once since then (under the conditioning of a disgraced trainer for all but 2 starts) while Improbable has had an up and down series of races.

    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1676600

    The Triple Crown (and unofficial 3YO season) comes to a close in a week from Saturday with the Preakness. The top 3YOs would then be expected to take on older horses.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 09-24-2020 at 07:54 AM.

  3. #183

    Preakness Update

    Folks,

    Here is a latest update on who might be expected in the Preakness next Saturday:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ness_field_123

    Note that there is a limit on horses in the field to 14, although they are not expecting that many. They pull the pills for the post positions (for the Preakness) on this coming Monday.

    Authentic's name came up in an interesting article this morning. Authentic was whipped 10 times in the Haskell to just win over NY Traffic. But New Jersey will be instituting a very severe whipping rule next year where whipping (with a very toned down whip) will only be allowed for safety reasons (e.g., veering into another horse's path). Would Authentic have won the Haskell if he wasn't whipped? This appears to be a trend in racing. I can attest that horses have their own personalities and they have their own reasons for giving or not giving Maximum Effort (good horse name) in the stretch. Jockeys and other race participants are of different minds as whether or not these new rules are good/fair to the racing public in the short or long run. If you take Bob Baffert's word on things, how would you keep Authentic's mind on business if he is far ahead of a field and he's looking for competition; he'd think the race is over without a couple of reminders on his rump to pay attention. Not all young horses get that the race ends at the wire. There is a famous story of the top turf horse John Henry who changed leads at the wire of an Arlington Million; this maneuver extended his nose enough to win a photo. This was considered a conscious decision by the horse. Still other horses I have known had great talent, but had to be constantly worked to keep their effort level up. There will be lots of discussion, and experimentation on this subject.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #184
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post

    The best race this weekend is:

    A nice race prep for the BC Classic at Santa Anita this Saturday (9/26/2020) in the 10th race. Maximum Security takes on Improbable. Both had great last efforts, are sporting their old jockeys, and are trained by Bob Baffert. Expect the NEXT race (BC Classic) to be a better effort; this is a prep race. You may recall that in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Improbable was the Kentucky Derby favorite (after Court House was scratched), but it was Maximum Security who finished first (and was then disqualified); this is the first time they are meeting since then. Maximum Security has only lost once since then (under the conditioning of a disgraced trainer for all but 2 starts) while Improbable has had an up and down series of races.

    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1676600



    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Improbable destroyed a top field, including Maximum Security who finished second. The A.P. Indy broodmare credits pop up a lot.

    A nice looking Princess Noor also established herself as the top 2YO filly on the west coast.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #185

    The Preakness Field

    Here is the Preakness field:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._positions_123

    11 horses.
    Authentic is the morning line favorite.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #186
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Here is the Preakness field:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._positions_123

    11 horses.
    Authentic is the morning line favorite.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    PPs for the last Triple Crown race of the year; the Preakness:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1777600

    Did you know that the Preakness was named after a horse that was named after a town in Passaic County, NJ (somewhat rural)? Noble steed named after (barely) a truck stop; before there were trucks.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #187
    One person's handicapping fodder for you:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._Authentic_123
    Devilwin will not be kept up at night by this.

    For those of you who bet nice names, Excession marks the spot..

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #188
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    my picks...
    Authentic
    Art Collector
    Thousand Words

  9. #189

    Odds and Ends

    Here is a video of Authentic's (impressive) 47.60 workout on Monday for 4f.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1310559934455656449

    Word comes that:

    Midnight Bisou has been retired due to a fractured sesamoid bone. She being the best mare in training, perhaps in the world. She finished second to Maximum Security in the Saudi Cup ($20 Million race) earlier this year! She will be sold as a broodmare prospect. Here is her pedigree if you want to raise your hand with a bid:
    https://www.pedigreequery.com/midnight+bisou
    Her sire Midnight Lute (named for the Arizona Coach who recently passed) had a wicked stretch kick and won a Breeder's Cup Sprint. Midnight Bisou was better than him!

    Irad Ortiz, who has been out serving a suspension, has tested positive for COVID-19, but is asymptomatic. Irad (brother of Jose' Ortiz) is perhaps the best rider in the country this year. He hopes to be back soon.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  10. #190
    I'm going to talk through this a bit:

    I noticed that Thousand Words has an equipment change, off a win and a scratch. He has Blinkers On, no doubt to calm him down. Perhaps less pre-race medication would help that too! The question will be if this will take the edge off of his mojo too.

    Swiss Skydiver is the lone filly in the race. She is getting only a 3 lb allowance. I don't know when they changed this from a 5 lb allowance. Genuine Risk, Winning Colors, and Rachel Alexandra all had the 5 lb allowance in the Preakness. The last filly to race in the Preakness was Ria Antonia, against California Chrome in 2014, and she carried 121 lbs (5 lb allowance). Bizarre or a misprint. Either that or because this is later in the year, they are not giving as big an allowance. Another tradition bites the dust. But she has bigger problems..

    Art Collector destroyed the favored Swiss Skydiver in their last meeting at the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Art Collector looks like he will like extra distance (and his breeding suggests it) and Swiss Skydiver, not sure. Swiss Skydiver is out of the exported sire Daredevil, whose US crop is tearing it up here in the US. Rumor is that the big money will bring him back. But the pedigree is not Classic distances for SS. For Art Collector, he is all Classic distances. Bernardini out of a Distorted Humor mare. He really doesn't have sprinters in his pedigree. No wonder he floundered at shorter distances. But he is fast, and he is big. He hasn't raced in a while, but he has been pumping iron. You'll get a good price on him.

    Pneumatic is improving. His speed figures continue to get better. Joe Bravo stays aboard after the big effort in the Pegasus. Another step up and he'll be on the board.

    Authentic is good. Really good. He looked life and death holding on in the Haskell, but that race rated out with a better speed figure than did the KY Derby. Go Figure. So does he bounce or not? Baffert is the master at winning the Preakness after the Derby, but this has been a long campaign for this beautiful son of Into Mischief. Now that IM has his Classic winner, he may just head back to the barn and collect his $200K per date.

    The weather looks like it will be perfect!

    My prediction:

    Art Collection
    Authentic
    Pneumatic

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #191
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Gag! Big boy didn't fire in the stretch..++ Let that filly win! Was it some kind of gift, AUTHENTIC? Taking away your Man Card!!!
    Last edited by Devilwin; 10-03-2020 at 06:10 PM.

  12. #192
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Gag! Big boy didn't fire in the stretch..++ Let that filly win! Was it some kind of gift, AUTHENTIC? Taking away your Man Card!!!
    The race was won when the Baffert Boys (Authentic and Thousand Words) made 2 major mistakes:

    1) The beginning of the race was really slow for a Classic Race. The first half was more than a second slower (47 3/5 vs. 46 2/5) than the Kentucky Derby. This turned the race into a 6 furlong sprint at the end. The filly has a sprint/miler pedigree.

    2) Swiss Skydiver was hugging the rail and was trapped. The Baffert horses had her blocked in behind. But they veered off the rail and let her through. She gained at least a dozen feet on Authentic by hugging the rail instead of going around (relative to Authentic getting the rail).

    These two horses were 10 lengths ahead of the pack of horses starting with the 3rd place horse.

    First filly to win since Rachel Alexandra in 2009, with Calvin BO-RAIL on. The trip for Swiss Skydiver was eerily reminiscent of those Kentucky Derby rail skimming trips that Calvin was famous for. No horse ran the Preakness faster than Swiss Skydiver (and Authentic), other than the great Secretariat (in a mis-timed Preakness in 1974). A great effort by Authentic in defeat.

    Kudos to Ken McPeek and the Swiss Skydiver team for running against the boys multiple times this year. The filly class (which includes the great Gamine) has been a great story.

    Who will be the 3YO of the year? The Breeder's Cup might tell the tail.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #193
    Speaking of the Devil.

    UpThread I mentioned that Swiss Skydiver was out of the exciting young sire Daredevil.

    In Swiss Skydiver's last race she finished second in the Kentucky Oaks to her half sister out of the same sire, Daredevil.
    That same filly, Shedaresthedevil, will be the odds-on favorite in the Spinster stakes in Keenland's Race 9 tomorrow (Sunday).
    Here are the PPs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1363500

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #194
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Speaking of the Devil.

    UpThread I mentioned that Swiss Skydiver was out of the exciting young sire Daredevil.

    In Swiss Skydiver's last race she finished second in the Kentucky Oaks to her half sister out of the same sire, Daredevil.
    That same filly, Shedaresthedevil, will be the odds-on favorite in the Spinster stakes in Keenland's Race 9 tomorrow (Sunday).
    Here are the PPs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1363500

    Larry
    DevilHorse

    Shedaresthedevil finished 3rd in the Spinster. I'd note that this was against older mares. She did fine.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #195

    Breeder's Cup

    The Breeder's Cup is coming in a couple of weeks (Keeneland November 6 and 7).

    Any interest in discussing any of these races? After all, it is a way to see the Kentucky Derby talent on exhibition.
    (like the NBA is the way to display college/ACC talent).

    Here is some discussion of the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile (it used to only be the Turf Mile to attract the Euros).
    Most interesting is that the connections of Art Collection, who only won twice at less than a mile on dirt, would elect to run in the sprint dirt mile. He did run on Turf his initial 3 races (with modest success). A talented, but enigmatic choice.

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...contenders_123

    Vekoma and Mr. Freeze are top contenders in this race (my early choices based on reputations and views from the summer). I can't believe that Knicks Go is even considered; that horse has been a dog all year (a small dog).

    For the Breeder's Cup Classic, Improbable is the HOT horse and Tiz The Law is the rested horse.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...contenders_123

    Can Authentic get back on track after a looong campaign?
    Happy Saver is undefeated.
    Swiss Skydiver, can do anything.. (backward, and in horse shoes).
    Tom's Detat only had one bad race.
    Maximum Security is still trying to live up to that change in trainers.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #196

    Devil down in Kentucky!

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Speaking of the Devil.

    UpThread I mentioned that Swiss Skydiver was out of the exciting young sire Daredevil.

    In Swiss Skydiver's last race she finished second in the Kentucky Oaks to her half sister out of the same sire, Daredevil.
    That same filly, Shedaresthedevil, will be the odds-on favorite in the Spinster stakes in Keenland's Race 9 tomorrow (Sunday).
    Here are the PPs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1363500

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I had mentioned that Daredevil, whose first crop included the Preakness winner Swiss Skydiver and Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil, was exported to .. Turkey.

    Well, Lanes End Farm (in Kentucky) will be bringing Daredevil back for the 2021 breeding season. It remains to be seen if Daredevil will be able to sire top notch colts as well as his fillies, but he is off to an outrageous start.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #197
    Here is an early article with 5 interesting races to watch for in the upcoming Breeder's Cup series, a week from this Friday/Saturday:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...forward_to_123

    Not mentioned is the Breeder's Cup Classic with the horses most mentioned in this thread this year: Authentic, Tiz The Law, Maximum Security, Improbable
    That will be a 1 1/4 mile shoot-out at Keeneland.

    BTW, the Santa Anita meet ended with 0 fatalities. Something that we are all happy about. Mitigation efforts have certainly been rewarded. Fatalities are going to happen, but for now, we can be thankful for this improved result.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #198

    Pre-Entries for BC

    Folks,

    Here are the Pre-Entries for the Breeder's Cup Races.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...re_entered_123

    What are the Pre-Entries?
    This is a list of ALL the horses that want to enter the races, and an indication of second choices if the first choice (preferred race) fills up. I think each horse entered will get in a race. Of most interest is that Swiss Skydiver's 1st preference is the Distaff Race, and her second preference is the BC Classic. Why this gifted filly would not be given whatever she wants is beyond me, but neither race filled. Would you rather face Authentic (again), Tiz The Law and older horses, or 'just' Monomy Girl and Dunbar Road. I think the choice is obvious. There are just so many 1 1/4 mile races that a 3YO filly has in her. The prevailing theory is that is what may have caught up with Tiz The Law. Another theory is that big colts don't like to pass dominating fillies. Well... maybe.

    Anyway, shortcomings of the Pre-Entries are:
    1) May have more horses than are really going to be entered
    2) Are in alphabetical sequence (post positions not yet drawn)
    3) Recent workouts not posted

    But, you can start early handicapping if you'd like. The PPs (in the suggested form) are available.

    I'll post a few of the bigger ones as time permits, unless requests appear.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #199
    The Breeder's Cup is here. Friday (5) and Saturday (9) there will be competitive and lucrative racing at the Keeneland Racecourse. There will be no spectators, other than owners/trainers. And you may recognize Keeneland as the backdrop of the Secretariat movie for the Belmont (bad racetrack casting).

    The PPs are available for all of the races, if you can fossick through websites.

    Here are is the Past Performance for the BC Classic:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1818000

    Authentic has an outside post, as does Improbable and Maximum Security. Tiz The Law has an unfortunate 2 hole; unfortunate in that the horse is not likely to be a front-runner but likes to be on the outside so he can make his move at will. But I'm guessing that the field will be strung out, and he'll still get his chance to make a run at the top horses. Authentic and Tiz The Law, being 3 year olds, get a 4 lb weight break.

    Swiss Skydiver will defect to go in the F&M Distaff vs. Monomoy Girl.

    PPs for the Distaff are here:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1515000

    For all of those who follow such things, all 5 horses mentioned in this article have Secretariat blood in them.

    Any further requests for PPs? There are some great races going on.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  20. #200

    The fuhriners

    Anyone who has looked over the BC fields can't help but notice the huge influx of European runners in the fields; especially the turf fields. Here is an article that will help to identify the top contenders for those races. Will be useful for those of us who watch TVG early on Saturday and Sunday morning next Spring/Summer.

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...eeders_Cup_123

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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