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  1. #121

    Cezanne and the Los Alamitos Derby

    Cezanne paid a healthy $2.20 to win (no Show betting) en-route to a 2 length victory over a mediocre group yesterday, in a modest time for a mile. There i always hype around an undefeated Baffert horse (see later in this post), especially if he cost $3.65M. The plans are to take a shot with him in one of the remaining four Kentucky Derby prep races to get enough points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Details are explained here:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...s_Alamitos_123

    Tomorrow, an eclectic set of second tier horses will try to bolster their credentials for the KY Derby in the Los Alamitos Derby. With 20 points to the winner, it is not likely to help any horse who doesn't already have significant points. The five horse field has a couple of familiar names, Thousand Words, who was a top horse earlier in the year; he already has 25 points and is #17 on the list (he's just about in). But he has run two underwhelming races in a row finishing 4th and 11th (in the slop). Anneau D'or was also well thought of earlier in the year, but only has two 2nds in 5 tries after breaking his maiden. He has 22 KY Derby points and is #20 on the list. He has the best speed figures in the race.

    An interesting addition to this race is an undefeated (one time winner) Uncle Chuck. Uncle Chuck is out of the Baffert barn and won by 7, with a good speed figure at a mile.
    All horses will carry equal weights.

    I think Thousand Words sets the pace, but you box the Anneau D'or/Uncle Chuck Exacta.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #122

    Uncle Chuck wins LA Derby

    Uncle Chuck took another step toward Kentucky Derby Stakes eligibility by winning the Los Alamitos Derby by 4 lengths. He ran in the pack until the head of the stretch, where he took command left the remainder of the field in the dust, with only stablemate Thousand Words keeping any contact. The competitiveness of the race was hurt by the scratch of Anneau D'or with a slight fever. This race had the rare occurrence of a Win bet ($2.80) that paid better than an Exacta ($2.10). Uncle Chuck earned a respectable 94 Beyer figure for the race.

    Uncle Chuck is likely pointed for the Shared Belief at Del Mar for his next start for Kentucky Derby points. Only 3 opportunities seem available (Shared Belief, Haskell, and Pegasus) still have KY Derby points. The Blue Grass Stakes is next week (too soon), and it would be outrageous for this horse to go to the Japan Dirt Derby on July 8th. Those are all the point earning events that are left on the schedule.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 07-05-2020 at 10:12 AM.

  3. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Uncle Chuck took another step toward Kentucky Derby Stakes eligibility by winning the Los Alamitos Derby by 4 lengths. He ran in the pack until the head of the stretch, where he took command left the remainder of the field in the dust, with only stablemate Thousand Words keeping any contact. The competitiveness of the race was hurt by the scratch of Anneau D'or with a slight fever. This race had the rare occurrence of a Win bet ($2.80) that paid better than an Exacta ($2.10). Uncle Chuck earned a respectable 94 Beyer figure for the race.

    Uncle Chuck is likely pointed for the Shared Belief at Del Mar for his next start for Kentucky Derby points. Only 3 opportunities seem available (Shared Belief, Haskell, and Pegasus) still have KY Derby points. The Blue Grass Stakes is next week (too soon), and it would be outrageous for this horse to go to the Japan Dirt Derby on July 8th. Those are all the point earning events that are left on the schedule.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Minor correction to the last paragraph. There is one more KY Derby points race that I missed, and it is coming up this Wednesday. Coincident with the Japan Dirt Derby is the Indiana Derby at 1 1/8 miles (Race 11 - July 8). Of note in that race is Kentucky Derby Points horse #17, Major Fed with 30 points, but that is it for the top 25. Winning Impression is likely to be the post time favorite off of his 4th place finish in the Arkansas Derby. Winning Impression is #26 on the list with 10 KY Derby points.

    Here are the Past Performances, courtesy of Brisnet:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1622060

    And on a big Blue Devil Hunch Bet, in the Indiana Oaks, #6, Shedaresthedevil by Daredevil.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1474600


    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #124

    Lidocaine explanation and Maximum Security

    Finally we hear the explanation of where the Lidocaine in Charlatan and Gamine came from:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._positives_123
    Obviously there are no standards for maximum allowable levels of Lidocaine in a horses system. But finding picograms?
    Water at least has allowable levels of Arsenic.

    Baffert is targeting what was the leading money winning horse of this year, and arguably the most intriguing horse, Maximum Security, for the 7/18/2020 San Diego Handicap.
    When we last saw Maximum Security, he was beating Midnight Bisou in the Saudi Cup, the world's richest race.
    This was just before 27 people were caught in a sting for doping horses, including Jason Servis, the trainer of Maximum Security.
    Maximum Security, who finished first in last year's Kentucky Derby, only to be disqualified for interfering with another horse, still had a remarkable year and was clearly the best 3YOC last year.
    All eyes will be on Maximum Security as he returns after a long layoff. I believe this is a 1 1/16 mile race. Stay tuned.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #125

    Indiana Derby/ Japan Dirt Derby

    Reminder that there is a lot of Derby related action today, and this week!

    Today (Wednesday July 8th 2020) is the running of the Indiana Derby! Derby points on the line (discussed earlier in the thread with PPs available).
    Touts are giving Shared Sense a bit of a buzz this morning.

    The Japan Dirt Derby has already been run and won by a son of American Pharoah; just not the one that was expected.
    Danon Pharoah made a big move and had a decisive win, while Cafe Pharoah finished in the middle of the field.
    Again, this was a muddy track. In the USA, American Pharoah's reputation is growing as a turf sire. But you never know. It may take till the 4th crop, when breeders have a chance to breed a new crop, based on what they see in the first crop, to really establish what American Pharoah's breeding potential is. That is what happened with Secretariat.
    There may be 3 horses from Japan that have enough Derby Points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. This will pose interesting betting opportunities, although I expect they will be hearded into "the field" bet. Modern betting capabilities should allow for individual betting on all interests since we are no longer limited by the size of the tote board on the Churchill downs infield. "The Field" is now an anachronism!
    Here is a link that includes a video of the race. Note that Japan runs races in Clockwise and Counter-clockwise directions. Take that all of you traditionalists!
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...h_mid_pack_123

    The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland will be raced on Saturday.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #126
    Shared Sense pulled away from a pack of horses to win the Indiana Derby and the 20 KY Derby points. Major Fed was second. The lukewarm favorite paid $7.60.

    In the Indiana Oaks, Shedaresthedevil won by 5 lengths as the odds on favorite!

    The Blue Grass Stakes is this Saturday and Keeneland.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1363500
    The excellent filly, Swiss Skydiver takes on the boys and tries to establish some KY Derby cred (and get some points) in this one.
    She gets a 5 lb weight allowance.
    With 100 point to the winner, and 40 points for second, that would be more than enough to be a starter.

    Also racing is favorite Art Collector, who has won 3 optional claiming races in a row.
    Basin, who finished second in the Arkansas Derby (by 6) to Charlatan.
    Rushie who finished third behind Honor A.P. and Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby.
    Shivaree and Finnick the Fierce have a few Derby points.
    Mr. Big News is the only other horse coming in off of a win.

    This could be a wide open race.

    Larry

  7. #127

    Blue Grass to Art Collector

    Art Collector threw his hat into the ring as one of the top colts in this year's crop in a resounding victory over Swiss Skydiver. Collecting the 100 KY Derby points.
    Art Collector stalked Swiss Skydiver in the pack for most of the race; a couple of early speed types tried to cut the race fractions early befor Swiss Skydiver took over till midway through the stretch. But she was no match for the winner. I expect SS will head back to the fillies division, and the KY Oaks where she is clearly the odds on favorite, and the race is more suited to what she can do at distance. Yesterday suggested that she would not fair well at 1 1/4 mile if she were to employ front running tactics. Rushie finished third, 8 yards back.

    Swiss Skydiver had won 3 races at 1 1/16 before the Blue Grass, and she is by More Than Ready. This pedigree does not suggest classic distances. While Art Collector is by Bernadini (by A.P. Indy) who will have no problem going long.

    So we still have the Haskell (July 18), Shared Belief (Aug 1), Pegasus (Aug 15), and the Travers (Aug 8, but no Derby points) to see horses try for derby conditioning and/or points.
    Authentic is supposedly pointing toward the Haskell this Saturday, as is Dr. Post. Tiz The Law will be your post time favorite if he makes it to the Travers.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #128

    The Peter Pan and Maximum Security

    The Peter Pan Stakes, usually run at Belmont as a precursor to the Belmont Stakes, will be run on the first day of the Saratoga meet on Thursday. Of some interest to this thread is that Kentucky Derby aspirants Modernist (#7 - 70 KYD points) and Candy Tycoon (#24 - 20 KYD points) will be participating. No Derby points to be had, but some money and fitness are available.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1508940
    Keep an eye on Celtic Striker who is the lone (and very dangerous) speed in the race. He won the Easy Goer on the engine by 19 lengths last time out.
    Modernist will have to stalk and keep up if he hopes to win this one.

    Maximum Security will make his first start since winning the $20M Saudi Cup. Also this is his first start since the scandal that brought down over a dozen trainers including Jason Servis, his conditioner. Bob Baffert is now handling Maximum Security and will be at Del Mar for the San Diego Handicap.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1373600
    What is at stake here is more than just the race, but the reputation of an immense race horse that comes along once or twice a decade (it would appear).
    Look at the lines on this horse. He has finished behind another horse only once in the past 2 years and has raced at the highest levels in the world.
    What is at stake is tens of millions of dollars in stud fees and the believability that all of his previous races were a true indication of his ability and not drug enhanced.
    For a broader view on how other horses have done from accused trainers, I found this article:
    https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...inners-circle/

    Baffert will not be in New Jersey to see Authentic race in the Haskell at Monmouth Park.
    One interesting note, the availability of Jockeys for big races has changed because of a couple of factors:
    1) A couple of Jockeys have come down with the COVID19 virus. Most notable is Florent Geroux who has done great work this year.
    2) Saratoga has announced that it will close the Jockey colony for the lucrative Summer meet. That means big name jockeys either stay for the summer or they can't fly in for the big races. Once they leave, they can't come back. Saratoga runs at least one Stakes race a day, and is a beautiful 6 week meet (as is Del Mar). This will affect the Jockey choices in other races like the Haskell.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #129

    Authentic in The Haskell

    Authentic has drawn post 2 in the Haskell. That's good for the likely front runner; Jesus' Team and NY Traffic have shown early speed, but with over 90F temperatures predicted for Saturday (yes, I know that Monmouth is a softball throw from the Atlantic Ocean, but on-shore breeze is not guaranteed) it would be suicide to get into a speed duel. The likely challenge will come from Dr. Post, who has drawn post 1. Both Authentic (2nd to Honor A.P. in Santa Anita Derby) and Dr. Post (2nd to Tiz The Law in the Belmont) fell short in their last starts, but could use the ego boost in what is likely their last race before the KY Derby in 1.5 months. Dr. Post could get stuck on the rail if he doesn't get a quick enough pace and doesn't get maneuvering room. If Authentic gets a breather and Dr. Post can't get out from behind, Dr. Post will be at a disadvantage.

    The interesting twist to this race is how Saratoga has shuffled the jockey pool. Neither Authentic, nor Dr. Post will have their usual jockeys for this race, which is actually very interesting. It is not obvious if either horse gets an advantage. Authentic may not have his regular rider (Drayden Van Dyke, a rising Jockey the past couple of years who is a top ten national rider and a Baffert FAVE, and has done little wrong with this colt. Drayden is out with COVID19), but picks up all world jockey Mike Smith; who wouldn't make that trade up? Dr. Post had John Velazquez for his first 2 races, and then Jose Ortiz for his most recent 2. These are big race riders for sure. But he now picks up Joe Bravo. Joe Bravo in most eyes is a step down from these other jockeys on a national scale, but not at Monmouth. "Jersey" Joe Bravo cut his teeth at Monmouth and knows the track better than any jockey racing there this weekend. He has ridden Tonalist and Blue Prize and has 13 Monmouth jockey titles. Add a star and a half.

    Whichever horse wins the Haskell, will they keep their jockey? I don't see Mike Smith taking Authentic over Honor A.P (what a twist of a choice that would be. Mike Smith has been aboard Honor A.P. for all of his starts including the one where he beat Authentic in their most recent race.). Given the chance, I'm sure Joe Bravo would take the mount on Dr. Post, Jose' Ortiz may or may not get bumped if Bravo gives him a good ride.

    If the pace is moderate to slow, give it to Authentic. If the pace is fast, Authentic will wilt, and Dr. Post will post a victory.

    I expect that Maximum Security is the real deal and he will win the San Diego Handicap. You will not get better odds on him for the rest of his life, although he may not be undefeated for the rest of his life.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 07-16-2020 at 07:49 AM.

  10. #130
    Country Grammar won the Peter Pan yesterday. He's a good colt, trained by Chad Brown. He could develop and move forward off of this.

    In other Derby News, apparently a horse named Nobel Prize won the Ballysax at Coolmore this past week. And KY Derby points were awarded. (I've heard of people winning the Nobel Prize, but never a Nobel Prize winning something; never mind ). This race wasn't even (and still isn't) on the list, but the article says points were awarded. I think that this is becoming a shameless attempt to get interest in selling thoroughbreds to Europeans. Will Nobel Prize come to the US to run in the Kentucky Derby, who knows. It is rare for a horse to come from Europe and run well in the US for the Breeder's Cup, and never as a 3YO in a US Classic. Still, it is only a matter of time. The genetics of the horses are fungible; they are all one breed. Our best horses go to stud in other countries (see Sunday Silence and Bricks and Mortar in Japan). The Ballysax was raced on the turf, so success in the Derby is not suggested.

    In other news, 15 Jockeys in California have tested positive for COVID-19. So Del Mar will 1) Close for a week. 2) Close down their Jockey colony once they re-open. The ramifications include. No San Diego Handicap this weekend, so no Maximum Security racing. Item 2) means that any Jockey from California that leaves to ride in other places will not be welcomed back to ride at Del Mar during this meet (so where do they go? Del Mar and Saratoga are the big money meets during the summer). So far, there are no reports that any of the Jockeys in California are ailing.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #131
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Close but Authentic hangs on..On to the Derby!

  12. #132
    Yes indeed, Authentic won by a nose (officially, but the photo looked like a half a head) over the beautiful grey/roan NY Traffic in the Haskell at Monmouth Park. Hopefully that is the highest temperature race these horses see this year. Horses can succumb to heat with heat stroke like symptoms, especially if they are on diuretics like Furosemide (Lasix). All of the horses in the race were on Lasix! Water was immediately provided to all horses, after each race to assure that distress was not an issue; kudos to horse racing personnel who have learned over the years. But I digress.

    This was an exciting race, but it didn't need to be. It started out with Authentic getting a fairly easy lead, with moderate fractions. Jesus' Team rode up alongside Authentic, just to let him know that he "had a friend", but Authentic provided some space soon after and was cruising. Dr. Post was kept 5 or so lengths back in 6th place during the tepid pace and that would prove his undoing. He would eventually have to swing wide, on a hot day, and could only match the pace of the eventual winner. He needed Authentic to be challenged. NY Traffic did pick up the mantle and stayed within shouting distance; this proved to be a valuable move. In the stretch, Mike Smith made a tactical mistake; Baffert warned him that Authentic needed to be kept busy in the stretch or he would start looking around (and slack off). This proved to be the case. NY Traffic put in a run and caught Authentic near the 1/16th pole, where Mike Smith (finally) started to raise some activity on Authentic. Authentic picked up the bit and engaged NY Traffic to slow the rate of the decreasing lead. Authentic just held on to his lead. Another jump and NY Traffic would have had the win.

    Would Authentic be able to go 1 1/4 miles in the Derby in 7 weeks? Baffert seems convinced. Replays show that Mike Smith certainly did nothing to keep the horse busy until the last few strides of the race. This was still just Authentic's fifth lifetime race. He is still just a "teenager". Without fans in the stands, (there were a few, but not many) he didn't know what to do without instruction from his jockey. This is believable. But the time seemed slowish, but it did get a 100 Beyer figure. But consider that the winner of 3 other stakes races on the day also got 100 (or higher) figures on the day. This was a good, not great performance by this colt. He is now second in Kentucky Derby Points to Tiz The Law. Authentic will be pressed in the Derby; they always are.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #133

    Derby News - Back On The Front Page

    Folks - A Few Minor Updates

    One thing I forgot to mention (didn't realize actually) is that with last week's Haskell win, Authentic is invited to the Breeder's Cup Classic. It was a "Win And You're In" race with all fees paid. Tiz The Law can't say that!

    Coming up August 9, we have the KY Derby points race with the Ellis Park Derby. Art Collector will be there. Fresh off his Blue Grass Stakes victory, this rapidly developing colt hopes to continue his momentum towards the first Saturday in September.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...Park_Derby_123
    Ellis Park is a small(er) racetrack in Western Kentucky. It is 50 miles west of Louisville, and doesn't get the press that we hear about from out east by Lexington (where those gorgeous horse farms and the home of the Wildcats resides). But they feel like a part of the action with this race.
    The standardbreds have a "road show" of sorts called the Grand Circuit where the member tracks throw Stake races at different tracks, all week in each locale. It is a great tradition and is usually marked by state fairs at each spot. The Kentucky Derby Points "Tour" has a bit of a feel of that and harkens back to that piece of Americana.

    Baffert is pointing Cezanne toward the Shared Belief, (next weekend) and Uncle Chuck to August 8th's Travers (to take on Tiz The Law). Thousand Words (in a word) is also improving, but I think he has a few paragraphs to go to compete with the earlier mentioned steeds.

    Maximum Security will race again this weekend in the once delayed San Diego Handicap.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1373600

    And for those with a more sophisticated equine palatte, it is Enable vs. Japan in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #134
    Maximum Security won by a nose over a determined Midcourt.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Although this is not how a 2/5 shot should win, Midcourt is a formidable horse and this was a handicap with a 5 lb advantage to Midcourt at his better distance. Cedillo is an up and coming jockey (replacing the COVID impacted Luis Saez) and he had to get into Maximum Security to 'secure' the win. Most horses coming back from the Middle East have to get the cobwebs out; the 5 month layoff, and some less than spectacular work-outs, suggested that 'the best horse in training' was vulnerable. Most people will think that there is nothing to see here. But when was the last time you saw a horse win a race carrying 127 lbs (other than the Fall Highweight Handicap)??

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #135

    Shared Belief on Saturday - Aug 1, 2020

    Folks,

    The Kentucky Derby Extravaganza continues this weekend with the running of the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar on Saturday.
    Here are the PPs, courtesy of Briswatch:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...1232&param3=77

    Uncle Chuck (who is listed) will defect to go to the Travers where he will meet Tiz The Law at the derby distance of 1 1/4 mile, leaving the overwhelming favorite to be Honor A.P. Obviously, Cezanne is being considered a virtual "Ham Sandwich" since his credentials are roughly similar to Uncle Chuck, but I digress. Also in the field is the re-improving Thousand Words and the needs to improve Anneau d'or.
    Cezanne will have to continue his upward trajectory to meet approach Honor A.P. who last raced on the day Cezanne impressively broke his maiden.
    But Cezanne has not run as far or fast as Honor A.P. and has much to prove. Cezanne is really the only speed in the race; it will be interesting to see if Mike Smith sets a real pace, or slows this race down and turns it into a sprint at the end. The field is small enough to be turned into a tactical race. Expect Honor A.P. to dwell on the outside to avoid traffic problems.

    For those of you who don't remember the ill fated Shared Belief, he was a really good horse, who was partially owned by Jim Rome. He was a champion 2YO gelding. Injured as a 3YO, so he did not compete for the Triple Crown (where many of these horses get famous) but he came back later in the year to become the favorite in that year's Breeder's Cup Classic (as a 3YO), but lost. However he vindicated himself in the Malibu Stakes that year when he defeated the Kentucky Derby winner of his generation later that year, California Chrome. Late as a 3YO, Shared Belief got Colic and died. What a nice horse.

    The Travers is next weekend.

    In other KY Derby news, Ete Indian apparently had a minor injury and is recovering. It remains to be seen if he will be in the Derby. Sole Volente's trainer has minor regrets running his horse in the Belmont 10 days after winning an overnight at Gulfstream. Too much for the horse (who finished 6th) and because there were no Derby points in that race (or the Belmont for a 6th place finish, drop outs will be needed in the top 20 for Sole Volente to get in. Apparently, none of the Japan American Pharoah horses will be coming. But Sole Volente is now #19 on the KY Derby points list, and is fading.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #136
    Just bringing to the top that we have the Shared Belief today, as the final tune-up for highly touted Honor A.P. (see link for PPs in previous post).
    Post time should be about 5:30 EST as Race 2 at Del Mar (built by Bing Crosby). And speak of the devil, the Bing Crosby Stakes will go off as Race 10 at about 9:30 today!!

    Also on the docket are a couple of nice stakes races at Saratoga:
    Midnight Bisou (second to Maximum Security at the Saudi Cup) will try to win her second Personal Ensign Stakes in a row.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=838300
    Personal Ensign was a magnificent thoroughbred; undefeated in 13 starts. I would rate few fillies above her.
    She was also a tremendous broodmare.

    Tom's d'Etat gets to prove that he is the best 7 year old in the land in the Whitney.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1508940
    Baffert sends out the talented, but inconsistent Improbable in this one.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #137
    There seems to be a lot of mis-information out there about today's Shared Belief Stakes.

    TVG is still showing Uncle Chuck in the race. Do not 'Believe It' (see what I did there). (They are usually sharper than this over there).
    Uncle Chuck worked 6 furlongs this morning in a snappy 1:00.2 and is headed for his date with Tiz The Law in the Travers.
    I've heard that Anneau d'Or is also scratched (toward what end, I don't know) which would leave a 4 horse field and significantly less traffic trouble.

    Cezanne needs KY Derby Points; he has to win to get in. Thousand Words will pick up points (all 4 starters will get points), but he is on the inside and on the edge at #18 and 33KYDPs, so he will get to start if his owners want him too. Waste of money if you only want the prestige for $30k. Honor A.P. is in if he wants; he does not have to be at his best today, except to enhance his reputation. Kiss Today Goodbye does not belong in this race.

    I expect Honor A.P. to win; it is big money.
    Qualification races can be tricky. Horses don't need to give their best, and Honor A.P. is already in the KY Derby.
    So if he isn't fully tuned up for this, it would not be a surprise.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #138

    Day of Upsets

    Not a man alive pays the bills at 1 to 5.

    Yesterday was not a good day if you were a favorite.

    In the Kentucky Derby Prep races, Thousand Words beat Honor A.P. in the Shared Belief at Del Mar. Bob Baffert felt that Thousand Words has been rounding into form and is pointing toward the Derby.
    This was not Honor A.P.'s finest effort. In fact, all of the horses seem to run as a pack for the most part. Thousand Words was aggressive, setting the pace. Honor A.P. first lagged behind, then caught up. It was not obvious if his jockey knew what tactic he wanted to follow; he seemed to start/stop several times which is not the best approach for the big colt. There was certainly effort put in by Honor A.P. and he was gaining at the end, just not enough. Cezanne's Kentucky Derby run would appear to be finished, as he finished last.

    Midnight Bisou lost as the odds-on favorite in the Personal Ensign. She just could not pass Vexatious.

    In the Whitney, Tom's d'Etat tripped out of the gate, losing some 5 lengths at the start, and putting himself at the mercy of pacesetter Improbable who then controlled the race and won easily. Baffert had quite a day, winning with Improbable and Thousand Words.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #139

    Lots of Action

    Lots to talk about on the Kentucky Derby Trail!

    First and foremost, the Travers comes this Saturday, this is the biggest point opportunity of the remaining KY Derby prep races.
    Here are the PPs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1844260

    The major contenders would appear to be Tiz The Law, Uncle Chuck, Max Player, and Shivaree.
    Tiz The Law has done nothing wrong, and is the hometown favorite at this track. He will be the heavy favorite. His team will be in attendance at the track, COVID restrictions or not.
    UNcle Chuck is UN-defeated, and will be making the case for derby points and inclusion in this race. Usually if a horse needs the points, he will be in the exacta/trifecta. Good bridgejumper opportunity.
    Max Player, oddly, has had quite a number of commercials on social media and TV lately. Perhaps his connections are trying to syndicate him. Look for a good showing. This is a talented horse, that continues to improve. I have to wonder why he only has 4 starts including his start in November.
    Shivaree just doesn't seem to be as good as the top ones.
    The others look to be vying for a spot at the end of the superfecta.
    Note that this race is being run at the true Derby distance of 1 1/4. Country Grammar, Uncle Chuck, and South Bend have a Belmont winner within their first 2 generations, so they can surely get the 1 1/4 distance. Tiz The Law's grandsire Tiznow won the Breeder's Cup Classic twice at the Derby distance too, so we know he would have license to do so.
    I'm sticking with the home team, Tiz The Law! Followed by Uncle Chuck and Max Player in any order.

    Also running on the Saratoga card, in the Test Stakes, is the wonderful Gamine.
    Remember she of the positive 'test' results from the Arkansas Derby day for Lidocaine.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1676600

    On Sunday, the second of the 3 remaining Derby Preps will be run. This is the Ellis Park Derby (I'm not sure where they race this; perhaps someone can advise).
    Anyway, PPs will be forthcoming; but Art Collector will be the heavy favorite in this tune-up for this rapidly developing son of Bernadini.

    Also of interest, to those following a favorite horse, the unprecedented last of the Kentucky Derby Future Pools is out. Here is number 7:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1060500

    The last of the Kentucky Derby Prep Races will be the Pegasus at Monmouth Park on August 15.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  20. #140

    Ellis Park Derby

    As promised, below is a link to the PPs for the Ellis Park Derby, courtesy of Brisnet:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1393800

    The big favorite is Art Collector, but 3YOs do change over time, so there are other horses that may contend, depending on how the race is run.
    It has been pointed out in an article that Shared Sense, who was 2nd to Art Collector in June, was in a pace-less race. Shared Sense then went on to show improvement, winning the Indiana Derby. This race is more likely to start more quickly with 13 horses in it and higher stakes. More traffic problems as well. Art Collector is very likely to be near the front with his natural speed, but will he be pressed.
    Dean Martini was claimed this spring and won the Ohio Derby for his new connections; they want to see if they were just lucky or this was a real improvement.

    No horse has the speed of Art Collector, who is even losing a lb. If he is feeling good, he is the pick.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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