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  1. #221
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post

    Here's a few tips that I use when handicapping:

    "Not a person alive has paid the bills at 1 to 5": Basically true. If a horse is an overwelming favorite, it is tough to pick it at really low odds. The only time I would bet it is if a race was a "set up" for a good horse. For example, the first time Monomoy Girl raced this year (after a 1.5 year lay-off) they created a race for her; (see next tip for the type) she was probably out of shape, but needed a race before taking on stakes company. But class almost always trumps (sorry) fitness. I bet her at 1/5 and she won by 4 easily. I'm not a bridgejumper. Although I have done the opposite of bridge jumping (bet every horse to come in other than the BIG HORSE, in the overloaded pool; great fun).


    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I have a contest that I play with a Standardbred crowd. There was a set of 4 races at Dover Downs last night. I have 2 Three Year Old Filly pacers in the contest, so I know that division really well. The leader of that division (by alot) was in with one of my contest entrants last night and totally overlaid the field, and was 1/2. She was a 1/9 type. And she had the 1 hole on 5/8ths track. Huuuuge advantage for pacers. So I dropped some dough on her, smelling free money, and she paid $2.60 for $2. Brings me to a related tip to the one above:

    More tips:

    If you can, follow a group of horses. Be it a particular class at your local track (claimers, age, gait) or national. So that you are familiar with the relative class of the horses without looking at the program. This allows you to make quick bets as they come up. Sometimes the odds do not seem worth it, but you never know when the betting public just leaves the odds elevated and makes it worth it.

    A corollary to the above, be able to spot situations that are not cited in the program based on things that happened in the race or racing conditions. I remember going to races every Monday night and seeing the same set of horses, in different classes race. A horse named Far Star N (I was an Astronomy major, so loved the name) had another horse stop right in front of it and take it out of the race; Far Star N then made up a ton of ground in the stretch, but was too far back to make a difference. He would have won for fun. Far Star N was then entered in the same class the next week; but the racing form only showed a miserable last race line and only tepid morning line odds. Without traffic, Far Star N gave me a nice score of $14 and started off a nice $40 Daily Double. Competant past performances should note when a horse was boxed or stopped in front of. You don't have to be a one race at a time handicapper. Those of us who watch the 2YO and 3YO Kentucky Derby division can enjoy this tip.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #222
    This weekend there are a number of minor 2YO stakes;

    James F. Lewis at Laurel:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1228160

    Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar (the return of Spielberg to Stakes company and Weston):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1098880


    Word is that Jon Velazquez will ride Tiz The Law in the Jan 23 Pegasus Stakes. Do you think that TTL will recognize the rider of arch enemy Authentic?

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #223
    Just saw a very impressive win by a 2YO filly in the Desi Arnez Stakes at Del Mar.
    Astute by Speightstown won effortlessly in her second lifetime start.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1098880

    Will bear watching.

    Bonus question.
    Astute has 2 crosses to Secretariat in her 4th and 5th generation, but she is not inbred to him.
    Can you tell me why.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #224
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    This weekend there are a number of minor 2YO stakes;

    James F. Lewis at Laurel:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1228160


    Larry
    DevilHorse
    No Cents (son of Goldencents - first big son of Into Mischief) won the James F. Lewis. Stalking the pace, he took control in mid-stretch from Dalton and was in command. Nice time for a 6f race.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Those hoping for a Road House rooting interest in Dalton had to be slightly disappointed as he finished 2nd.

    Could be 2YOs to follow. (oops, just did).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #225
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    This weekend there are a number of minor 2YO stakes;

    Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar (the return of Spielberg to Stakes company and Weston):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1098880


    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Red Flag (grandson of Speightstown) took command at the head of the stretch and put the rest of the field in his rearview mirror by 7.

    Spielberg and Weston looked so ordinary, it makes me think that Dr. Shivel is a bit less than he showed (beating those two earlier in the season). Time will tell as Red Flag and Dr. Shivel will be on a collision course with each other and Collusion Illusion for the West Coast 3YO Colt stakes early next year.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #226
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Thanks for the continued feed of information. One of my favorites for the Derby was the hard luck horse Maxfield. Do you know if he is still in training? If so any guess as to his next start?
    Just saw this from the Daily Racing Form. The formatting may not translate well.


    DRF Watch Mail <DoNotReply@dailyracingform.com>

    Nov 14, 2020, 11:07 AM (2 days ago)

    to me

    DRF Breeding
    Horse Message
    Horse name Maxfield
    Notes 2YOC in 2019 Street Sense - Bernadini BM Sire Big Win in Keeneland Futurity # My Note
    Activity type Workout
    Activity date 11-14-2020
    Track Churchill Downs
    Surface Dirt
    Distance 4 Furlongs
    Workout type Breezing
    Workout time 0:49.00
    Track condition Fast


    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #227
    More 2YO names for your Kentucky Derby 2021 consideration:

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...by_futures_123

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #228

    Tip Discussion - Interesting Race

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Here's a few tips that I use when handicapping:

    "Not a person alive has paid the bills at 1 to 5": Basically true. If a horse is an overwelming favorite, it is tough to pick it at really low odds. The only time I would bet it is if a race was a "set up" for a good horse. For example, the first time Monomoy Girl raced this year (after a 1.5 year lay-off) they created a race for her; (see next tip for the type) she was probably out of shape, but needed a race before taking on stakes company. But class almost always trumps (sorry) fitness. I bet her at 1/5 and she won by 4 easily. I'm not a bridgejumper. Although I have done the opposite of bridge jumping (bet every horse to come in other than the BIG HORSE, in the overloaded pool; great fun).

    Look for value in "Optional Claiming" races. These are races that are allowance races, but people can try to sell their horses in there. It is a real mix of very good horses with throw aways. You can find some lesser stakes horses (drop outs from the KY Derby trail) with regular claimers (losers) and iffy horses. You can find prices here.

    Every spring there are coming out races for the top colts and fillies. They rarely come out in the same race. With TVG and the internet, find a few twitter guys to follow, or the DRF.com website and find these top 20 horses. You can get even odds on horses that are still overlays. Don't bet your shirt, but by managing your money, you can turn a profit.

    Pick your races, and become a friend of Briswatch so you can pick up any race's PPs that you want for free. It takes a little work, but it can be done for 95% of the races.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    An interesting race is coming up next week that touches on a couple of these tips.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1082720

    On Wednesday, Nov 25, Race 8 at Churchill Downs, Dennis' Moment re-appears after an 8 month layoff. If you recall, Dennis' Moment was the favorite in last year's BC Juvenile, after winning his only 2 races (one of which was by 19 lengths). But Dennis' Moment apparently had problems, and after a poor performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, was put on the shelf. He has been coming back, with at least one bullet work (does everyone know what this is?). So, this is a chancey bet for an Optional Claimer (he is not in for a tag, so the owners want to keep him).

    Also in the field is the Ohio Derby winner, #10 - Dean Martini, trained by Tom Amoss. He's looked fairly bad since the Derby in June, and that includes another optional claimer.

    So, if Dennis' Moment is back to his 2YO form, he lays over this field, he wins for fun. If he continues to have problems, it is back to the drawing board. This is not a walk over. He has been working back smartly, but the stress of a race doesn't show up till the end of a race (usually). We will see. I would wait to see the odds before laying down money. But it is an interesting race for a horse that has garnered major interest early this year. Sometimes it takes a year (or two) to get a horse right. Some owners will put in the time and some just get rid of them and move on to the next horse. Dale Roman and his owners have stuck with this horse and I hope they are rewarded.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #229

    The Fastest Horse In The World

    Evidently Bob Baffert loves a horse that is about to make his first start in a maiden race at Del Mar.

    In Race 2, Del Mar 11/22/2020, Keeneland purchase, $525K, Life Is Good:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...94&param3=1694

    He isn't the most expensive horse in this race, even from that sale, but he is the Buzz horse from the Baffert barn. Let's see if he is worth 1/9.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  10. #230
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Evidently Bob Baffert loves a horse that is about to make his first start in a maiden race at Del Mar.

    In Race 2, Del Mar 11/22/2020, Keeneland purchase, $525K, Life Is Good:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...94&param3=1694

    He isn't the most expensive horse in this race, even from that sale, but he is the Buzz horse from the Baffert barn. Let's see if he is worth 1/9.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Life Is Good is one to watch for the the Road To The Roses. He broke alertly and took a 3 length lead with a 21 4/5 first panel, and a 1:09- for 6f in this 6.5f race. That is hoofin!! He won by just under 10 lengths and wasn't touched.
    Here is the race report:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Another Authentic? Perhaps.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #231
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Life Is Good is one to watch for the the Road To The Roses. He broke alertly and took a 3 length lead with a 21 4/5 first panel, and a 1:09- for 6f in this 6.5f race. That is hoofin!! He won by just under 10 lengths and wasn't touched.
    Here is the race report:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Another Authentic? Perhaps.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Life is Good Video:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1330618522137808898

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #232

    Maxfield

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Just saw this from the Daily Racing Form. The formatting may not translate well.


    DRF Watch Mail <DoNotReply@dailyracingform.com>

    Nov 14, 2020, 11:07 AM (2 days ago)

    to me

    DRF Breeding
    Horse Message
    Horse name Maxfield
    Notes 2YOC in 2019 Street Sense - Bernadini BM Sire Big Win in Keeneland Futurity # My Note
    Activity type Workout
    Activity date 11-14-2020
    Track Churchill Downs
    Surface Dirt
    Distance 4 Furlongs
    Workout type Breezing
    Workout time 0:49.00
    Track condition Fast


    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I noticed this article about Maxfield from a month ago:
    https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...omeback-trail/
    Still basically relevant. I would expect a start in about another month (expect 2 months of workouts before a real start.. perhaps allowance or minor stakes race). That is what I would do, but Godolphin is a major syndicate; they think differently.

    Also, Maxfield had another workout on Saturday at Churchill 5f in 1:01.00. Very light for a horse of his caliber.

    Tiz The Law also had a recent workout for 4f in 47.9 (that is moving).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #233

    The Top 2YOs

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    More 2YO names for your Kentucky Derby 2021 consideration:

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...by_futures_123

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Here is a latest list of the Top Two Year Olds, pointed toward the 2021 Kentucky Derby!

    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...by_futures_123

    Of course, the top horses are mostly sprint oriented, the TC prep races are at sprint/medium distances, and the triple crown races are at classic distances. So many of these horses will fall by the wayside.

    There is some (reasonable) discussion that Authentic would not have been ready for the Kentucky Derby 2020 if it had been run in May. Who knows.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #234

    Top Jockeys

    Folks,

    This article is for those of you who actually make selections/bets.

    It is a listing of this years top jockeys:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ys_of_2020_123

    Permit me to make a few observations about the list:

    + It appears as if a tacit attempt was made to list the better jockeys toward the top, although I don't think it was stated as such (top numbers in columns are in bold). But I think that without a doubt Irad Ortiz was the best jockey of the year (But no BC wins).

    + Most of you know, but I'll restate that the way jockeys are paired with mounts (their horses in a race) occurs through the following process. i) When a horse is entered for a race, the enterer (usually the trainer) lists the preferred jockeys in descending sequence (can name several) ii) if a jockey is named on multiple horses, they are given a short time period to select which horse they will take for each race. If they are named on only one horse, they are assigned to that one horse (if they are there that day). iii) Once the top selection is committed to a different horse, then the second jockey is assigned if available. The race secretary then has discretion to make jockey assignments based on who is available and who might be remaining on the preferred list. This is important because for the top jockeys and trainers, having top jockeys paired with top horses is pivotal to mutual success. Irad Ortiz ALWAYS picks Todd Pletcher horses first, even if they are inferior in a race.. unless it is a high caliber stakes race where there is an obvious conflict; then, Irad has a choice to make that could have implications. Usually he picks Pletcher. These conflicts occur every day.

    + Note that some of the best Jockeys are down the list, and only because of the volume of horses they ride. Mike Smith and John Velazquez are top riders, but they are getting old and they don't need the money, nor the wear and tear. So they ride the top horses for the top trainers, and the stakes races. That's about it. Their earnings per start is probably much better than any other Jockey on the list.

    + Luis Saez was probably riding as well as any jockey in the country during September/October.

    + Some jockeys don't travel much and rule the roost in their section of the country. They get all of the good mounts when other guys are out of town. "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is King."

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #235

    Derby 2021 Future Pool 1

    Folks,

    Here is the Kentucky Future Pool 1 PPs.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...48&param3=1768

    All of the top 2YOs in one place, but then there are still a few big 2YO races still to come this year, so this is of course an evolving story.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #236
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    An interesting race is coming up next week that touches on a couple of these tips.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1082720

    On Wednesday, Nov 25, Race 8 at Churchill Downs, Dennis' Moment re-appears after an 8 month layoff. If you recall, Dennis' Moment was the favorite in last year's BC Juvenile, after winning his only 2 races (one of which was by 19 lengths). But Dennis' Moment apparently had problems, and after a poor performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, was put on the shelf. He has been coming back, with at least one bullet work (does everyone know what this is?). So, this is a chancey bet for an Optional Claimer (he is not in for a tag, so the owners want to keep him).

    Also in the field is the Ohio Derby winner, #10 - Dean Martini, trained by Tom Amoss. He's looked fairly bad since the Derby in June, and that includes another optional claimer.

    So, if Dennis' Moment is back to his 2YO form, he lays over this field, he wins for fun. If he continues to have problems, it is back to the drawing board. This is not a walk over. He has been working back smartly, but the stress of a race doesn't show up till the end of a race (usually). We will see. I would wait to see the odds before laying down money. But it is an interesting race for a horse that has garnered major interest early this year. Sometimes it takes a year (or two) to get a horse right. Some owners will put in the time and some just get rid of them and move on to the next horse. Dale Roman and his owners have stuck with this horse and I hope they are rewarded.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Dennis' Moment was scratched. The track was sloppy. Dean Martini finished 3rd.
    At the head of the stretch, it looked like 8 horses had a shot in this very competitive race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #237
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Dennis' Moment was scratched. The track was sloppy. Dean Martini finished 3rd.
    At the head of the stretch, it looked like 8 horses had a shot in this very competitive race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    For those who care, Dennis' Moment did find another race at Churchill Downs (optional Claimer), was in for a tag, and finished last. This horse unfortunately has problems:
    http://www.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorseD...01127&raceNo=3

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #238

    More 2YOs

    Folks,

    The KY Jockey Club Stakes for 2YOCs is being run today at Churchill Downs.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1488740

    Several horses from the BC Juvenile in there including the 3rd place horse Keepmeinmind.

    Simply Ravishing, a very nice 2YOF, is in the Golden Rod stakes at CD (Race 9).
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1218060

    Keepmeinmind and Simply Ravishing are both by the New York State first year sire Laoban who is turning some heads. The son of Uncle Mo is being moved to Kentucky to get a 'better' class of mares (horse snob).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #239
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Folks,

    The KY Jockey Club Stakes for 2YOCs is being run today at Churchill Downs.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1488740

    Several horses from the BC Juvenile in there including the 3rd place horse Keepmeinmind.

    Simply Ravishing, a very nice 2YOF, is in the Golden Rod stakes at CD (Race 9).
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1218060

    Keepmeinmind and Simply Ravishing are both by the New York State first year sire Laoban who is turning some heads. The son of Uncle Mo is being moved to Kentucky to get a 'better' class of mares (horse snob).

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Simply Ravishing did not have it in the Golden Rod. Travel Column, by first year sire Frosted, won.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    If you like roan's/grey's, the Tapit/Frosted line is for you.


    Keepmeinmind won the Kentucky Jockey Club in a last to first effort. The favorite paid a nice $6.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Also on the card was a nice developing 2YO Mandaloun by (who else but) Into Mischief.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    The 2YO picture continues to evolve. The Remsen at Aqueduct is next Saturday.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  20. #240
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Simply Ravishing did not have it in the Golden Rod. Travel Column, by first year sire Frosted, won.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    If you like roan's/grey's, the Tapit/Frosted line is for you.


    Keepmeinmind won the Kentucky Jockey Club in a last to first effort. The favorite paid a nice $6.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Also on the card was a nice developing 2YO Mandaloun by (who else but) Into Mischief.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    The 2YO picture continues to evolve. The Remsen at Aqueduct is next Saturday.

    Larry

    DevilHorse
    More 2YOC names if you are tracking/looking:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne..._newcomers_123

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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