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  1. #1

    Horse Racing 2020

    Well Racing Fans.

    Is anyone open to discuss the ponies for the upcoming year.

    There aren't any Hurley horses really to discuss (Songandaprayer descendants are few and far between, but we'll keep looking).

    But, the Thoroughbred Triple Crown Prep Races are about to kick into high gear this weekend with 3 (perhaps 4) preps this weekend.

    All races on Saturday, February 1, 2020:

    The Withers at Aqueduct, Race 8
    Two horses already with Derby Points in this one:
    Shotski (10), Prince of Pharoahs (3)
    + Monday Morning QB looks to be the post time favorite, and an obvious weekend hunch bet.
    + Shotski won the Remsen (but then Believe It beat Alydar in the Remsen as a 2YO, so big woo).
    + Portos has big speed numbers, but took 4 races to break his maiden, and now is in Stakes company; big jump.
    A lot of early speed. I expect Monday Morning QB to stalk and sling shot to victory.

    The Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park, Race 11
    Only Tiz the Law (12) has Derby Points
    +Tiz The Law was one of the top colts in the 2YO class, until a dull effort on an off track against Silver Prospector (that one lost last week in his 2020 debut). The track figures to be fast, and I'm willing to stand up for the (son of the) Constitution!!! Barclay Tagg avoided the Breeders Cup because it was too soon after the Champagne last year, so he is picking his spots.

    +Ete Indien looks wicked fast, but I'm not buying it. Grass pedigree.
    +Toledo is by Into Mischief and had traffic problems; top connections. Could be a monster. Works are average.

    The Robert B. Lewis, Race 6.
    Two horses with Derby Points in this one:
    Thousand Words (10), Zimba Warrior (2)
    + Thousand Words is trained by Baffert, is undefeated, has won at this distance, and is the grandson of the recently deceased Empire Maker. A Picture should be worthy of this horse.
    + High Velocity doesn't look fast enough

    Note that the 20th horse in the gate at Churchill Downs last year had accrued 40 Derby Points and there are 10 points up for grabs in each of the races tomorrow.

    There is also the Swale Stakes at 7 Furlongs for 3YOs tomorrow. Swale is the ill fated son of Seattle Slew who won the KY Derby and Belmont, only to die a few days after that latter race. Why he only meritted a 7 furlong race, I just don't know. But this used to be a prep race for Triple Crown hopefuls. Now perhaps the winner will try to move up to that bunch.

    + Untitled put in an eye-popping debut for Mark Casse. Can he do it again?
    + Green Light Go is by far the class of this field
    + Shivaree may have figured it out and is a tough competitor

    If this is an interesting enough topic, I'll add pointers to the Past Performances. Let me know. Otherwise I'll just fade away.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #2
    To be precise, that is 10 points to the winner, 4 points to place, 2 points for show, and 1 point for the superfecta (4th) slot awarded for each of the three Grade 3 prep races.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Have not looked into the horses yet but I will.

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Have not looked into the horses yet but I will.
    Nice to hear. Will attempt to keep the thread alive to see if it keeps some traction.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #5
    Some results:

    Withers - Max Player the convincing winner. - Monday Morning QB looked OK, but did not switch leads (didn't in early races either); that is the kiss of death in any route race.

    Robert Louis - Thousand Words is life and death winning over 3 other horses. Gives Baffert 3000th victory. Could have been short for undefeated colt.

    Holy Bull - Tiz The Law - Has unfavorable position on the rail; is stopped by his jockey and pulled back and to the outside (momentum stopped) then circles the field. Still green.

    Perhaps a Filly contender in Taraz who blitzed a field of talented fillies in the Martha Washington at Oaklawn. Will see if she takes on the boys in the Rebel.

    From a points perspective, many races with 50 Points that are essentially 'win and your in.'

    More to come.

    Are you out there? I hear you breathing.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  6. #6

    Weekend of Feb 8, 2020

    This weekend we the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, with 10-4-2-1 in Derby Point being offered.

    Here are the Past Performances (PPs) courtesy of Briswatch:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1866480

    The obvious choice here is (yet another) son of Constitution named Independence Hall
    He won the Jerome last month (on a good track) and gets a 1 LB break in weight from that race.

    Sole Volante is a bit of a mystery horse to me. Finished 3rd (in the Mucho Macho Man)against Chance It, but was 5 wide the entire race and has the second best speed figure in the race (100 vs. Independece Hall's 101). He loses 4 LBs from his last race.

    Premier Star is undefeated, but no route distance experience. Good works.

    Ajaaweed finished 2nd to Shotski the Remson in December, but that one was exposed last week in the Withers.

    We also have the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct for 3YO Colts for horses not quite on the Derby trail (no points):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1050400

    You might remember that Bobby Hurley's Devil Eleven Stable's Go Go Shoot won this race in 2008.

    Perhaps more later.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 02-06-2020 at 07:01 AM.

  7. #7

    Extra Treats

    Folks,

    Some extra PPs for your appetite:

    The Derby Future Wager Round 2 for 3YOC is out (there is a Pool for betting this):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...272&param3=544

    For the 3YO Filly Races this February 8, 2020 weekend you have:

    The Las Virgenes at Santa Anita:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=838300

    And the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1527120

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #8

    Big Bonus Race on Sunday Feb 7

    Just noticed that on Sunday Feb 7 at Santa Anita is the San Vicente, and it is Loaded!!!
    Here is the PPs, courtesy of Briswatch:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1173620

    A brief look-see shows:

    Storm The Court - Last year's BC Juvenile Winner, by forgotten sire Court Vision (by sprinter Gulch - I remember him). Decent workouts for Peter Eurton's surprise winner. Same jockey (Prat).

    Nadal - Baffert's Eye popping $700k son of Blame who 'won for fun' in his only race. This is the Buzz horse. Note that this is a 7 Furlong race and Nadal won a 6 Furlong race, so not a stretch, and he picks up Rosario, so big jockey improvement.

    Fast Enough is undefeated (2 races), and a California Cup winner. Very modest breeding and connections, but he doesn't know that. Good works.

    Ra'ad has won one of two with the great Drayden Van Dyke and is also a Baffert horse. Was a $500k yearling.

    Enjoy this one. Race of the weekend.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    What do you think of Authentic? I liked his run in the grade 3 Sham Stakes..

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    What do you think of Authentic? I liked his run in the grade 3 Sham Stakes..
    I was "Excited" by Authentic's Sham victory. It was a Tour de Force. Just as a reminder for those who didn't see it:
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...mjllXWzsbP6pQ4

    This was his 2nd lifetime race, and he was green as grass (a "little green?" Pleeze), lugged in twice during his stretch run, so plenty in the tank. Time was OK, but jockey had a hold on him the whole time. Anytime a horse came within a length, he scooted off and hid.
    He was in against a Baffert $320k horse that won by 4 previously.

    Can he rate? His previous race he showed sitting second, but in this race he went to the front and never looked back.

    Out of Into Mischief, he has the pedigree to go longer, although he would seem to be limited (Mr. Greeley BM sire) a bit on the dam side; Greeley was a very successful sprinter, never winning at more than a mile (just once). Second BM sire was Wild Again (classic distance horse). Dam Flawless wasn't much (won 1 of 3 at 7 furlongs; Authentic is her most successful foal already out of 3 foals of racing age). into Mischief's family is of course charged with great runners and now this amazing sire; he being brother to Beholder and Mendelsohn.

    I immediately added him to my watch list; me and a million other guys.

    Of the horses that have come back since Jan 1, I'd put him with 'Tiz The Law' as the most interesting. These horses have so few starts, things change more quickly now than 30 years ago when they had 5 or 6 races under their belt by now. More of a chance of injury occurring because less training and strength. Horses probably more brittle too. Remember Omaha Beach? Yah Right.

    BTW, his next start is tentatively slated for the March 7, San Felipe at Santa Anita.

    Larry
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 02-07-2020 at 07:42 AM.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    This weekend we the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, with 10-4-2-1 in Derby Point being offered.

    Here are the Past Performances (PPs) courtesy of Briswatch:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1866480

    The obvious choice here is (yet another) son of Constitution named Independence Hall
    He won the Jerome last month (on a good track) and gets a 1 LB break in weight from that race.

    Sole Volante is a bit of a mystery horse to me. Finished 3rd (in the Mucho Macho Man)against Chance It, but was 5 wide the entire race and has the second best speed figure in the race (100 vs. Independece Hall's 101). He loses 4 LBs from his last race.

    Premier Star is undefeated, but no route distance experience. Good works.

    Ajaaweed finished 2nd to Shotski the Remson in December, but that one was exposed last week in the Withers.

    We also have the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct for 3YO Colts for horses not quite on the Derby trail (no points):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1050400

    You might remember that Bobby Hurley's Devil Eleven Stable's Go Go Shoot won this race in 2008.

    Perhaps more later.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Sole Volante won the Sam F. Davis and looked good, coming from WAY off the pace.
    And what a pace it was. Two horses set a torrid pace, with Independence Hall stalking it 2 lengths behind.
    But Independence Hall, took the lead half way around the turn but was headed by a deliberate Sole Volante.
    The 3rd place horse Ajaaweed was way back.
    Commentators made excuses for Independence Hall getting caught up in the early pace.

    The Winkfield was won by a confident Montauk Traffic. The last to first jaunt probably will move this horse up for the real 3YO classics in NY.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Just noticed that on Sunday Feb 7 at Santa Anita is the San Vicente, and it is Loaded!!!
    Here is the PPs, courtesy of Briswatch:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1173620

    A brief look-see shows:

    Storm The Court - Last year's BC Juvenile Winner, by forgotten sire Court Vision (by sprinter Gulch - I remember him). Decent workouts for Peter Eurton's surprise winner. Same jockey (Prat).

    Nadal - Baffert's Eye popping $700k son of Blame who 'won for fun' in his only race. This is the Buzz horse. Note that this is a 7 Furlong race and Nadal won a 6 Furlong race, so not a stretch, and he picks up Rosario, so big jockey improvement.

    Fast Enough is undefeated (2 races), and a California Cup winner. Very modest breeding and connections, but he doesn't know that. Good works.

    Ra'ad has won one of two with the great Drayden Van Dyke and is also a Baffert horse. Was a $500k yearling.

    Enjoy this one. Race of the weekend.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    As the bettors expected, Nadal won the San Vicente. This harkened back to the days of sprinters like Lord Nelson who beat Texas Red in their come backs.
    Ginobili pressed Nadal through the lane, and the final result was a bit in doubt for half the stretch (perhaps not good for those 4/5 bettors of Nadal).
    Baffert later confided that he hadn't full prepared Nadal for the race because it was a short turn-around from his maiden race.
    Storm The Court ran a similar race to his BC Juv win, although this race, being much shorter, did not give him the length needed to win.
    He (and another horse) were coming on toward the end, to finish only a few (perhaps 2-3) lengths off the top 2. Storm The Court finished 4th.
    Storm The Court will be happy to see Nadal leave town to find out if he is more than a sprinter. Baffert feels that Nadal may have a future at classic distances.
    Apparently we will find out.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Folks,

    Some extra PPs for your appetite:

    The Derby Future Wager Round 2 for 3YOC is out (there is a Pool for betting this):
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...272&param3=544

    For the 3YO Filly Races this February 8, 2020 weekend you have:

    The Las Virgenes at Santa Anita:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...&param3=838300

    And the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1527120

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Venetian Harbor was a monster in the Las Virgenes and will look to be headed toward the Kentucky Oaks with another strong performance.
    <need I mention that "Go Big Blue Nation" finished almost out of sight in 4th??>

    Lucrezia also looked impressive winning the Suncoast. The daughter of Into Mischief took the lead on the backstretch and had an easy 5 length victory.
    Into Mischief has been having a terrific year!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #14

    Cool Weekend of Feb 15-17: Risen Star, El Camino Real, Southwest Stakes

    Folk (I only hear one of you breathing)...

    The prep races must be heating up if not in quality, then at least in value with the Risen Star in two $400K Divisions at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, each with 50 Derby points to the winner (and lesser points to the 2, 3, and 4 place horses), the El Camino Real at Golden Gate Park south of San Francisco, and the Southwest Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park.

    Risen Star (First Division - Race 12)
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1696800

    Risen Star (Second Division - Race 13)
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1838200

    El Camino Real
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1003940

    Each of the above races will be contested at 1 1/8 miles; a bit longer than we've seen in the prep races and just 1/8 shorter than the classic distance of the Derby.

    Weather is forecast to be good for New Orleans on Saturday.
    The first division of the Risen Star has a couple of interesting animals:

    Enforceable won the Lecomte (the feeder race to the Risen Star) while racing wide the whole way. He maintains the superiour Julien Laeparoux as his pilot

    Blackberry Wine has very good speed figures, but picks up weight and is keeping his local jockey. Mostly a turf horse, but given a shot.

    Silver State was bumped and finished 2nd in the Lecomte. Asmussen trainee has the pedigree to go longer and checks all boxes.

    In the second division:

    Anneau d'Or is the logical horse. He finished 2nd in the BC Juvenile (has that ever worked out?) and finished 2nd by a neck to Thousand Words who was life and death in his debut 2 weeks ago. Training very well, but hasn't raced in 2 months. Expect 1st or 2nd.

    Mailman Money is undefeated (2 starts) and if he improves off that race could be in the thick of it.

    NY Traffic is interesting. He had a new trainer last race (5th start) and woke up. New trainer is Joseph Saffie. If you follow racing at all you would have heard about Saffie who took a claiming horse last year, for a bunch of guys owner group, and won the Pennsylvania Derby ($1Million Race) with Math Wizard over some top competition last year (i.e., including Spun To Run who later won the BC Mile). Here is the Penn Derby and interview:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgX4la6tPJQ
    Some good works and some Saffie magic could make this horse interesting. Saffie usually only does claimers, so venturing into these KY Derby prep races is probably a residue of his enhanced reputation or using the money from that big PA Derby win. Interesting story.
    And in a rare Oxymoron, this NY Traffic apparently can really move!!!

    The El Camino Real.. I haven't looked at it yet, but the forecast is cold and white to wet.

    The Southwest Stakes entries haven't come out yet since the race is monday.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #15

    El Camino Real and a Hunch Bet

    In the El Camino Real (PPs in previous post), there looks like only one entry.. Bob Baffert's Azul Coast.
    Baffert, as he usually does, travels up the west coast highway (probably flies) and dominates the El Camino Real ... but I lie.
    He has only won once with Cavonnier back in 1996.
    Azul Coast finished 2nd, well behind DevilWin's favorite horse Authentic in the Sham by 7.5 lengths, but he has the best figures and looks to be able to handle this bunch.

    The fillies also have racing this weekend.

    The Dixie Belle is being run at Oaklawn Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1436220
    All PPs are courtesy of Briswatch.
    In this race, the favorite would appear to be Specially, who has won 2 of 3. Including a 12 length win on a sloppy track. Trained by Mark Casse and piloted by David Cohen. She got a 99 (SY) and 95 in her two wins, and a nasty 68 in her loss.

    However, for a flyer, I might take a chance on the 5 horse, Sassy Seneca. This undefeated filly has figures of 85 and 76 (not as fast as Specially), but has a better jockey, bullet works, and her grandsire is Super Saver. Super Saver won the KY Derby in the mud and is an A+ mud sire. One work shows 1/12 in Heavy Mud and another 1/6 in Mud. This filly LOVES MUD. There is speed in the race, and in a 5 horse field, I could expect the 1 to get boxed and possibly be disadvantaged. Sassy Seneca might have a positive ROI here.

    On Saturday, at the Fair Grounds, there is the Rachel Alexandra, for 3YO Fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1555400
    Talk about a filly who liked the MUD.


    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Authentic has some heavy hitters in his ancestry. Storm Cat, Secrettame, Mr Prospector, Gone West, Affirmed, among others..

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Authentic has some heavy hitters in his ancestry. Storm Cat, Secrettame, Mr Prospector, Gone West, Affirmed, among others..
    I love Into Mischief, and the late Harlan's Holiday is an underrated sire, but when I see Affirmed in a pedigree, I think anchor (and not anchor leg). I saw Affirmed beat Alydar twice (the Hopeful at Saratoga and the Belmont). That horse was a freak (head case). What he did to Sensitive Prince in the Jim Dandy was the stuff of legends (ran him down like a dog); Affirmed did not like to lose, but that level of super performance did not breed through. For the most part, he underwelmed as a sire. Harlan breeds true on Harlan's Holiday; he was a very good grass horse. Storm Cat was a sire of sires and bred through in that case. Just my opinion on that situation.

    Agree wholehardedly on the others Storm Cat and his dam Terlingua, and Gone West and his dam Secrettame (both mares by Secretariat) give Authentic a 5x6 cross to Big Red!


    Larry

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    I was a huge Alydar fan..He was much better than Affirmed in the breeding shed.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    I was a huge Alydar fan..He was much better than Affirmed in the breeding shed.
    I'm with you. I loved Alydar too. I saw Alydar 3 times in person. The 2 times I saw Affirmed beat him (Hopeful and Belmont) and in the Remsen when Believe It beat him. I had a ticket on Believe It that day (paid about $15.20 I recall). The only way Alydar could beat Affirmed was by catching him with a brush at the wire (no time for Affirmed to react) or via a disqualification (in the Travers - bad boy Pincay). Alydar and Affirmed took separate paths to the Derby that year (1978) and both looked really good. I thought Alydar was going to finally mature and take him, but that was not to be. Those two were just trojan asteroids.

    Alydar continues to show up in a number of pedigrees of KY Derby Contenders.

    Here are the PPs for the Southwest Stakes on Monday.
    http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1436220
    Assmusen has 3 in there. $750K is a bigtime purse for this (used to be) early season test, but it is an interesting race.

    There seems to be circular logic in the Morning Line and who beat whom.
    Answer In is a gelding. Rare to see in young 3YOs. Apparently the colt was intractable (crazy) so he just was not going to reach any potential without being cut.
    Somehow the comment for his last race gave me a chuckle (he was "hung?").

    Gold Street, who has won 3 straight, won on sloppy and muddy tracks. There is something to discount every horse.

    Pletcher often wins these. He has Chase Tracker who finished 3rd to Shotski. But Shotski looked mortal in his first race back from the Remsen. Each horse has something not to like.

    Tough to handicap.

    Larry
    Devilhorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 02-16-2020 at 08:29 AM.

  20. #20
    Azul Coast was indeed the top horse in the El Camino Derby, although he had to work to make good on his even money status.

    Mr. Monomoy took the first division of the Risen Star, but Enforceable did not disgrace himself; the latter looked like he got out of the gate slowly and closed throughout the race, finishing second.

    Modernist solidified Uncle Mo's credentials as a top sire of Derby Prep horses, winning the second Division of the Risen Star with a nice front running effort and paying a ton.

    Silver Prospector shook off his lazy Smarty Jones effort to show some spunk to win the Southwest Stakes. Although the Southwest Stakes has provided only 1 Ky Derby starter since 2004.

    Sad to hear that the brilliant filly Taraz, mentioned earlier in this thread, was euthanized because of a training accident. The Road toward the 3YO classics is not easy, and these majestic animals give their all for oats.

    Larry
    Devilhorse

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