Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post

Here's a few tips that I use when handicapping:

"Not a person alive has paid the bills at 1 to 5": Basically true. If a horse is an overwelming favorite, it is tough to pick it at really low odds. The only time I would bet it is if a race was a "set up" for a good horse. For example, the first time Monomoy Girl raced this year (after a 1.5 year lay-off) they created a race for her; (see next tip for the type) she was probably out of shape, but needed a race before taking on stakes company. But class almost always trumps (sorry) fitness. I bet her at 1/5 and she won by 4 easily. I'm not a bridgejumper. Although I have done the opposite of bridge jumping (bet every horse to come in other than the BIG HORSE, in the overloaded pool; great fun).


Larry
DevilHorse
I have a contest that I play with a Standardbred crowd. There was a set of 4 races at Dover Downs last night. I have 2 Three Year Old Filly pacers in the contest, so I know that division really well. The leader of that division (by alot) was in with one of my contest entrants last night and totally overlaid the field, and was 1/2. She was a 1/9 type. And she had the 1 hole on 5/8ths track. Huuuuge advantage for pacers. So I dropped some dough on her, smelling free money, and she paid $2.60 for $2. Brings me to a related tip to the one above:

More tips:

If you can, follow a group of horses. Be it a particular class at your local track (claimers, age, gait) or national. So that you are familiar with the relative class of the horses without looking at the program. This allows you to make quick bets as they come up. Sometimes the odds do not seem worth it, but you never know when the betting public just leaves the odds elevated and makes it worth it.

A corollary to the above, be able to spot situations that are not cited in the program based on things that happened in the race or racing conditions. I remember going to races every Monday night and seeing the same set of horses, in different classes race. A horse named Far Star N (I was an Astronomy major, so loved the name) had another horse stop right in front of it and take it out of the race; Far Star N then made up a ton of ground in the stretch, but was too far back to make a difference. He would have won for fun. Far Star N was then entered in the same class the next week; but the racing form only showed a miserable last race line and only tepid morning line odds. Without traffic, Far Star N gave me a nice score of $14 and started off a nice $40 Daily Double. Competant past performances should note when a horse was boxed or stopped in front of. You don't have to be a one race at a time handicapper. Those of us who watch the 2YO and 3YO Kentucky Derby division can enjoy this tip.

Larry
DevilHorse