PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[MChambers]

Here's a balanced article in the Washington Post about the possible origins of the coronavirus: https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...992_story.html

[Lord Ash]

I think we’re going to need to agree to disagree and leave it that. You are very firm in your views, and have other posters supporting you. I am very firm in my views, and have other posters supporting me. Few if any minds are being changed.

I have no doubt that the last school year was incredibly challenging and exhausting for you. I hope the coming year will be the most satisfying you’ve had. And for whatever differences we have in perspective, I absolutely respect your passion for teaching.

Sounds good, hope I wasn't too aggressive, and I appreciate the kind words. And fingers crossed that next year is a million light years better... fingers crossed on no more pandemics!

[Bostondevil]

Wow, your comfort level with being publicly condescending is impressive. It does not, however, inspire much confidence in your powers of persuasion or the effectiveness of these pearls you dispense.

At some point when two people are not going to agree it is best to end the conversation. Have a good day.

Do you realize how condescending this post is?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Do you realize how condescending this post is?

At least you weren't accused of being defensive...

[Bostondevil]

There is a point I've been thinking about a lot. What does it even mean to get back to normal post-pandemic? We've lost over 600,000 people to covid and in 2020, all cause mortality in the US was the highest its ever been in all age groups. Yes, about 60% of the covid deaths were in people over 75, but that means that 40% of the covid deaths were in people who were not elderly. Maybe the 75 year olds were retired, but the younger you go, the more likely the person was at least one of the people supporting a household. One in 10 patients who had mild disease are suffering long term effects, that's nearly 3 1/2 million people. Many of those people cannot resume the work they did before the pandemic. We have 4 million families now that are either dealing with the death of a loved one or the kind of long term health effects that forever change lives. What is normal now? How can we even consider getting back to normal? Whatever normal is in the coming years, it's not what it was before. There will be long lasting changes, many that we can't see right now, but there will be changes wrought by the events of 2020. Let's hope most of them are for the good of humankind. Some won't be. I worry about those the most.

[cato]

What does it even mean to get back to normal post-pandemic?

There are no such things as normal or going back. Life will be more different for some people and less different for others, but different for everyone somehow.

And while speaking about how life goes, post-pandemic is a relative thing, since the next pandemic is not a question of if but when. How many close calls did we have in the 100 years between the most recent terrible ones? I’m not betting we have another 100 years until the next one.

[rsvman]

There are no such things as normal or going back. Life will be more different for some people and less different for others, but different for everyone somehow.
..

Technically this is probably true, but what I am seeing is people acting completely as if there never was a pandemic. From where I sit, it appears that a substantial subset of the population will go back to what was considered normal prior to the pandemic, and that many of those people already have made the shift. Only time will tell what kind of consequences this will have.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Technically this is probably true, but what I am seeing is people acting completely as if there never was a pandemic. From where I sit, it appears that a substantial subset of the population will go back to what was considered normal prior to the pandemic, and that many of those people already have made the shift. Only time will tell what kind of consequences this will have.

I was one of three people wearing a mask at the grocery store yesterday. People at large have moved on.

[aimo]

I was one of three people wearing a mask at the grocery store yesterday. People at large have moved on.

I am seeing more unmasked folks, but still the great majority are wearing. Including me. I am heading to a family reunion this weekend in Virginia. There is a second cousin who has been anti-restrictions and now anti-vax. How do I say Go away, you moron! but in a nice way that won't cause a rift? Seriously, we are taking masks, even though it is an outdoor venue. But I do not want to sit close to anyone I know is unvaccinated. 95% is not 100% and I do not want any part of it, especially with the delta variant spreading like it is.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I am seeing more unmasked folks, but still the great majority are wearing. Including me. I am heading to a family reunion this weekend in Virginia. There is a second cousin who has been anti-restrictions and now anti-vax. How do I say Go away, you moron! but in a nice way that won't cause a rift? Seriously, we are taking masks, even though it is an outdoor venue. But I do not want to sit close to anyone I know is unvaccinated. 95% is not 100% and I do not want any part of it, especially with the delta variant spreading like it is.

I honestly don't know what level of precaution makes sense at this point. I'd love a more educated person on this thread to share their thoughts on what level of measures are reasonable for those of us who are vaccinated.

[PackMan97]

I honestly don't know what level of precaution makes sense at this point. I'd love a more educated person on this thread to share their thoughts on what level of measures are reasonable for those of us who are vaccinated.

My family is still fully masking. For a few reasons, first and foremost my kids aren't old enough to get the vaccine. So we would ask them to mask it up and in solidarity we, the parents, would also mask up. We also mask up to try and remind folks that hundreds of people in the US are dying from this disease each day and many more are hospitalized with it. This disease is quickly spreading in South America and we are still seeing 500,000 new cases daily across the globe. More people that catch it, the more it will mutate. The more it mutates the more likely it will work around the vaccines that we have developed.

Mark this as one of the few times I'll say something positive about the CCP and China and COVID-19 in the same sentence, but they understand and have a zero tolerance with regards to COVID-19. I wish Americans would get onboard with dealing with this disease in the quickest way possible.
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world...BingNewsSearch

[Lord Ash]

I honestly don't know what level of precaution makes sense at this point. I'd love a more educated person on this thread to share their thoughts on what level of measures are reasonable for those of us who are vaccinated.

This. Please

[Bluedog]

I am at a client (in an office building) in a different state from my residence and it's a different world...Feel like I've gone to Jupiter. No mask wearing, no social distancing. (Vax rates are pretty similar to my home-state though.) Definitely makes me somewhat uncomfortable. But societal pressures are strong and basically people tend to follow social norms/cues. It's probably happening to an extent where I live too (no capacity limits anymore and masks not required for those vaxxed, although where I am it's all masks optional but in office building ZERO people wear masks), but I just choose to not go into those sorts of environments. I am fully vaxxed though, so also see some benefit to be "forced" to do things more "normally" but it's definitely a mindset shift. I am also not in a high risk population. I am trying to keep some distance as much as I can from people, but no wearing a mask or else I'd be shunned basically (in a client professional setting).

It's not easy to have a "flip of a switch" in mindset for me really although others seem to have no problem with it -- or they've been doing "normal" things all along or at least in recent weeks.

[Bluedog]

I honestly don't know what level of precaution makes sense at this point. I'd love a more educated person on this thread to share their thoughts on what level of measures are reasonable for those of us who are vaccinated.

This. Please

Seems like even physicians don't have a consensus on this. (And I am not a physician admittedly.) But at some point, you have to live your life and take some risk. I personally have started to not wear a mask outdoors at all really. The risk is SO low. I have also started to engage with people indoors, trying to ensure most people are vaxxed, but can't ever be sure. Keeping some distance. Not going in crowded public transit (except airplanes, masks) at all yet. A bit component of all this is levels of community spread. In my state, it's 1 out of 100,000. That is incredibly low. I think vax levels combined with community spread numbers should impact decision-making to an extent. If it was still at 25 cases per 100,000, might act differently even fully vaxxed. Also, I think that narrative of "only" 95% effective to be somewhat misleading as all three have been basically 100% effective at eliminating serious illness and death. To fully vaxxed people in areas with low community spread, one could again argue that a typical flu season poses a greater risk of death than COVID-19 does. We're so accustomed to COVID protocols and being fearful of it that's it's hard to shift mindsets and re-establish a solid risk assessment. There is also risk in driving a car or gonig swimming, but we accept those risks as a reasonable tradeoff.

That's my generic take though. Everybody has a different comfort level. But reading the NY Times Morning Briefing has given me some insights there, and seems to indicate that the level of fear/over-estimated risk is still quite ubiquotous. I will continue to wear masks with my children in solidarity and wear masks indoors in most establishments when not eating. I am not at the pre-pandemic "normal," but I think it's reasonable to do activities that you enjoy in life without a great fear. We can't live like this forever and COVID is likely to be endemic.

[budwom]

I think that mask wearing means different things in different places. Were I in a largely unvaccinated state, I'd wear one all the time; living where I do, with (according to the CDC) the highest vaccination rate AND the least amount of virus, I have no problem eschewing a mask. (Perhaps there is a link between highly vaccinated places and a paucity of the virus??)

As such I'm still not keen on getting on airplanes, or visiting states where more virus is circulating...so I guess wearing a mask can mean different things in different places.

It seems that most of the few cases we have now is among younger people...so I felt pretty good at a crowded Costco today surrounded by mostly middle aged folks.

[devil84]

My family is still fully masking. For a few reasons, first and foremost my kids aren't old enough to get the vaccine. So we would ask them to mask it up and in solidarity we, the parents, would also mask up. We also mask up to try and remind folks that hundreds of people in the US are dying from this disease each day and many more are hospitalized with it. This disease is quickly spreading in South America and we are still seeing 500,000 new cases daily across the globe. More people that catch it, the more it will mutate. The more it mutates the more likely it will work around the vaccines that we have developed.

Same here. I have ten month old and three year old grandsons who spend the day in my house while all employed adults in both households still work from home. My daughter is a pediatric speech language pathologist still doing primarily teletherapy, but works with a few patients in their home that aren't responding to teletherapy that are extremely medically fragile and are under 12 years old. My family is protecting our children and my daughter's medically fragile patients that can't yet get vaccines.

And dying isn't the only negative outcome of this disease. Spending any time at all in the ICU isn't on my bucket list, nor is being financially wiped out from a long hospital stay. Studies are finding lots of damage to the brain, heart, lungs, and other organs that could be permanent, even in asymptomatic or very mild cases. And who knows what payload will be unleashed later, much like shingles appears decades after chicken pox. Never mind that I've really enjoyed not having so much as a cold in the last 15 months!

Oh, and since RSV is going around here with a vengeance, we would REALLY like to keep it away from the baby. We are still doing curbside grocery pickup and avoiding anything indoors, unless it's a fairly important quick trip -- milk for the kids, a custom birthday cake that can't be gotten curbside, going in to pick up an online order from a restaurant that doesn't do curbside, etc. And the kids never go inside retail establishments. We're pretty extreme, but if my daughter gets an asymptomatic case and accidentally spreads it to her medically fragile patient, we couldn't live with ourselves. We've adjusted and while it's not fun, it's a small price to pay to keep a number of people who can't get vaccinated safe from Covid and RSV, for which there isn't a vaccine.

Part of why we are so cautious stems from the 1918 pandemic. My grandmother was 10 at the time. The schools in her district outside of Chicago never closed. She brought the flu home from school. She got very sick, but survived. Her sister, aged 21, came to help care for her, since she had a 4 month old baby girl and the mothering instinct was such that she wanted to help care for her beloved little sister, too. Unfortunately, her sister fell ill and died a quick but terribly painful death, leaving her young husband a widower and the brand new baby without a mother. The widower wasn't cut out for single fatherhood, so the little girl had a difficult early life. Gram (and Grampa after they married) always tried to make sure her niece had what she needed if they could afford it, sometime going without or into debt to help, partly out of familial love, but also out of tremendous guilt. Gram often noted that she would rather have died than to cause the loss of her sister and orphan her niece. She carried this guilt for 80 years until she died. This is a lasting negative outcome that I don't wish on anyone.

So, Packman, if you see masked people roaming around the southwest area of Wake County, it could be me and my family. We're feeling like some of the only people who still mask.

[Bluedog]

And the kids never go inside retail establishments. We're pretty extreme, but if my daughter gets an asymptomatic case and accidentally spreads it to her medically fragile patient, we couldn't live with ourselves. We've adjusted and while it's not fun, it's a small price to pay to keep a number of people who can't get vaccinated safe from Covid and RSV, for which there isn't a vaccine.

So, is your thought that the big shift for your family will be when your kids are eligible for the vaccine and get fully vaccinated? The challenge with all this is that COVID is likely to be endemic, and I don't want my children living in fear forever. So, at some point, there HAS to be a shift to "normal." I have been fairly cautious, but have loosened the strings a bit lately. I will take my kids into Target or a museum (masked). They go to daycare 9+ hours a day (masked indoors and outdoors, including my two year old, which is unusual as most states don't require it that young -- I frankly wish they didn't require it for that age or at least not outdoors.) Everybody needs to decide what is right for them and their family. It's hard to have a mindset shift I've determined once you've been doing something for so long though.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I appreciate tbe anecdotes from other vaccinated folks like myself who are still being cautious. I am still eager to hear from healthcare professionals who have a bigger picture understanding of how we can best continue to protect ourselves.

Thanks!

[budwom]

I appreciate tbe anecdotes from other vaccinated folks like myself who are still being cautious. I am still eager to hear from healthcare professionals who have a bigger picture understanding of how we can best continue to protect ourselves.

Thanks!

We should at least have some very good data by the end of the summer as Americans travel a great deal...

[Bluedog]

We should at least have some very good data by the end of the summer as Americans travel a great deal...

I am on a business trip this week and flights/airports are PACKED. At least there, everyone (largely) is masked. I think we're almost at prepandemic levels now and that's with a tremendous drop in business travel so pleasure travel is probably up in comparison to June 2019.