Originally Posted by
BlueDevil2K
I understand the statistical arguments that people are making, but...I think I disagree here for a few reasons. I don't have time to build this argument out the way that I'd like to, but here's a rough sketch. I'm using round numbers here, but they should be close enough:
- There are around 260 million Americans who are eligible to be vaccinated.
- Per the CDC, over 120 million Americans are at least partially vaccinated - 47.6%
- Those who have had at least one dose are "locked in" to that vaccine
- Of those who have been at least partially vaccinated, J&J comprises a bit about 6% of that population (again, per CDC numbers - 7.5M/120M)
- We know that there's a fair amount of vaccine hesitancy, so the best case appears to be that 70% of the adult population is "in a rush" to get vaccinated, or 180M
- We're currently averaging 1.7M first/only doses per day
- At that rate, everybody who wants a shot will get one in no more than the next 60M/1.7M = 35 days
- My impression is that J&J is struggling with supply, so let's assume that same 6% number is the daily proportion going forward. Take away that 6%, and we go from 35 days to 37 days
- All of that assumes that there's no expansion in Pfizer/Moderna capacity, and it does seem to be growing over time
- The J&J vaccine appears to have similar efficacy to the first dose of Pfizer or Moderna, if not slightly lower
So essentially, we're quibbling over the difference between vaccinating everybody who wants a shot in the next <35 days vs. the next <37 days. Spreading 35 days of vaccinations over 37 gives an average delay of around a day. The argument appears to be that the number of people infected in that one day (using my pessimistic math) out of that 60M adults is so large that it dwarfs the number if people who are affected by the issue with the blood clots.
- We're seeing ~700 American deaths per day across the entire population
- 60M/320M x 700 = 131 excess deaths due to that one day of delay, if those who are about to get vaccinated are a cross section of the population**
- That 131 is a very pessimistic number, because it's backwards-looking in terms of infections. By prioritizing vaccinating the highest risk Americans first, it should be the case that the death rate is lower for those who are infected today than for those infected weeks ago and dying today.
- That number is also pessimistic because I'm firmly convinced that the people getting vaccinated are generally also being more careful than those who are not, and their infection rate is somewhat disproportionately lower than the general population
- As a result, I question the statement that "hundreds will certainly die EVERY DAY" - I'm not sure that we're talking even 100 people total. Yes, every death is tragic, but we already have at least one death due to a blood clot that appears to be related to a J&J vaccine...and statistically, probably others to come.
On the flip side, maybe the J&J pause convinces some fraction of the 30% of vaccine hesitant Americans to actually get vaccinated? And by getting vaccinated, perhaps that reduces future deaths by some amount? Maybe even more than 100? I truly believe that in most places, we're about to reach (or have already reached) a tipping point where the supply exceeds the demand for vaccines*. We're all used to a mindset of scarcity due to the last four months, but I think we really should be changing our thinking to encourage as many people as possible to get vaccinated so as to help consume the excess supply. I suspect that the conservative nature of the J&J pause will be more helpful than harmful.
I'm sure that there are some flaws in my math...any thoughts on where I've gone wrong here?
*One data point - I got my first Pfizer shot 16 days ago, and the site ran out of their allotment (Groups 1-4) despite minimal advertising. They had another event last Friday (Groups 1-5) and did not come close to exhausting their supply despite more advertising outreach. It's just a gut feel based on the news of the day, but this feels like it's fairly representative of what's going on in the Triangle. I realize that other states aren't there yet, but they will be very soon.
**I realize that this math isn't quite right - those who were vaccinated a while ago are underrepresented in the daily deaths. I don't have time to go clean this up, but I don't think it skew the approximations enough to change the core argument.