PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[throatybeard]

Good article from the Atlantic about what is now known about Covid long haulers:

"Proof of the virus’s destructive power keeps accumulating. One study found that a significant number of hospitalized COVID‑19 patients developed antibodies to their own tissue. Some research suggests that the virus persists in immunocompromised patients for many weeks. Evidence is also mounting that the virus infiltrates and damages not just the lungs and the heart, and possibly the vagus nerve, but also the brain, vocal cords, esophagus, and more. Doctors are experimentally treating long-COVID patients with a variety of pharmaceuticals, among them antihistamines, Pepcid AC, and an antiparasitic drug called ivermectin."

Article says that it seems that 10-30% of those infected have long-term symptoms.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...-covid/618076/

This is all kinds of yikes.

[Bluedog]

I hope I'm wrong, but I can't imagine states like Missouri getting anywhere near vaccinating everyone who needs/wants one in six to eight weeks. The state government here has been actively obstructing distribution of vaccine proportional to population density, and I'd be surprised if we were anywhere close to saturation in mid May.

Wow, I just looked at the Global Epidemics dashboard and Missouri, shall we say, sticks out like a sore thumb...See image. There's like an invisible forcefield when you enter/exit Missouri with bordering counties. Of course, this doesn't really reflect vaccine attitudes quite yet as that hasn't had enough time to make a huge impact, but must reflect other policies/attitudes. The two random green counties in a sea of red I bet just aren't testing or reporting as they show 0 cases...I don't know why Missouri would be so different from say, Arkansas, as an example.
2021-03-10 09_37_30-Risk Levels - Global Epidemics.jpg

[Bluedog]

Article below suggests both Biden and Trump's administrations deserve some credit for the accelerating vaccine rollout. Not trying to make this political, but wanted to call it out because Duke alum, Jeffrey Zients, the White House’s chief pandemic adviser, gets credit for spearheading the JnJ and Merck agreement.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/10/u...s-vaccine.html

In any event, it's clear the U.S. has left other countries in the dust as it relates to vaccine rollout. Hopefully, it continues to make a dent in numbers. The UK has also done quite well, especially compared to Europe, although they've taken a different strategy than the U.S. to get as many people first doses as possible. Merkel's strategy of saying the EU as a bloc has better buying power than Germany going it alone is getting some criticism from Germans given what they've seen from the UK.

Certainly, not time to spike the football yet though...but it's promising.

[budwom]

Anecdotal info. Had a chat while on my walk today, a man 60+ I vaguely know, we talked weather, etc, then I asked if he'd had a jab. No. Asked (gently) if he wanted one: No. Asked very gently "may I ask your thinking on that?"
He cordially replied that he's in good shape, thinks the vaccine development was "rushed" (me too, though in a good way), he was in the Army decades ago and got too many shots so he doesn't want this one. Asked what he'd do this summer, go into restaurants? Said he wasn't sure.

I know he's a smart guy with plenty of money, I was surprised to hear this from him, but I made no effort to change his mind, that's pointless I think.

[aimo]

Anecdotal info. Had a chat while on my walk today, a man 60+ I vaguely know, we talked weather, etc, then I asked if he'd had a jab. No. Asked (gently) if he wanted one: No. Asked very gently "may I ask your thinking on that?"
He cordially replied that he's in good shape, thinks the vaccine development was "rushed" (me too, though in a good way), he was in the Army decades ago and got too many shots so he doesn't want this one. Asked what he'd do this summer, go into restaurants? Said he wasn't sure.

I know he's a smart guy with plenty of money, I was surprised to hear this from him, but I made no effort to change his mind, that's pointless I think.

That's interesting. I have spoken with or heard from quite a few veterans who are all for it BECAUSE of their service and their being used to getting all kinds of shots. Several have told me that this is nothing compared to the yellow fever (live) vaccine.

[budwom]

That's interesting. I have spoken with or heard from quite a few veterans who are all for it BECAUSE of their service and their being used to getting all kinds of shots. Several have told me that this is nothing compared to the yellow fever (live) vaccine.

What I really wanted to ask but didn't due to conflict avoidance was "who do you rely on for news?" These days, ya never know.
p.s. at least I learned that I won't be inviting him to our neighborhood post pandemic BBQ this summer...

[Rich]

As many of you know, I work for Pfizer. Although this article is not completely positive, I thought it was fair. Interesting reading and background reporting whether you agree with how the company addressed the situation or not. Comments by esteemed members of this Board certainly welcome.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...urce=applenews

Inside Pfizer’s Fast, Fraught, and Lucrative Vaccine Distribution
The company is a hero of the pandemic for its Covid-fighting wonder shot. That doesn’t mean it hasn’t made entire countries angry.

The shortage will eventually subside. Until then, [Pfizer CEO] Bourla occupies a strange position. He’s a savior, the bold leader of a company that stepped up. But he promised desperate governments doses he couldn’t deliver on time. As supplies increase, hard feelings may fade, but Bourla’s decisions during the height of the pandemic will be the subject of study. There was a vacuum in global leadership. He and his company filled it. The world needs better solutions before the next public-health crisis comes around.

[Furniture]

Thanks. Booked a test for tomorrow. Isolating too.

Test was negative and six days after exposure still no symptoms.

[throatybeard]

Wow, I just looked at the Global Epidemics dashboard and Missouri, shall we say, sticks out like a sore thumb...See image. There's like an invisible forcefield when you enter/exit Missouri with bordering counties. Of course, this doesn't really reflect vaccine attitudes quite yet as that hasn't had enough time to make a huge impact, but must reflect other policies/attitudes. The two random green counties in a sea of red I bet just aren't testing or reporting as they show 0 cases...I don't know why Missouri would be so different from say, Arkansas, as an example.
2021-03-10 09_37_30-Risk Levels - Global Epidemics.jpg

Thank you; could you hit me with the URL for the image. I can find charts but not maps.

[House P]

Thank you; could you hit me with the URL for the image. I can find charts but not maps.

At the risk of ruining a good meme, it may be worthwhile to note that Missouri had a “data anomaly” on March 8 when the state added ~50k positive antigen tests to their case count. Without these, Missouri’s daily case rate looks similar to its neighbors.

That being said, here’s the link. https://globalepidemics.org/key-metr...d-suppression/

[Bluedog]

At the risk of ruining a good meme, it may be worthwhile to note that Missouri had a “data anomaly” on March 8 when the state added ~50k positive antigen tests to their case count. Without these, Missouri’s daily case rate looks similar to its neighbors.

That being said, here’s the link. https://globalepidemics.org/key-metr...d-suppression/

Ah, thanks for noting there. I figured there was something...Missouri can't be THAT different from an Arkansas, etc. And, yep, that's the link.

[Phredd3]

Test was negative and six days after exposure still no symptoms.

Very good to hear.

[sagegrouse]

Worldometer data and also subject to some adjustments in the next days or so: The seven-day average for new cases as of March 8 is 58,800, less than one-fourth of the peak eight weeks ago and a bit less (15 percent) than last July's peak. The seven-day average for deaths is 1,625, less than one-half the peak of 3,449 six weeks ago but still 50 percent higher than last summer's peak. I look forward to continuing declines in number of deaths -- hopefully steep -- matching the decline in new cases.

And heavens -- when are the vaccines going to show their effectiveness in greatly reduced case numbers and deaths?

Seven-day average for deaths for March 10 is 1,477, down 24 percent in the past seven days. This is the biggest decline in deaths we have seen in the past few months. Seven-day average for new cases is 57,600, down 12-13 percent over the past week and down 77 percent from the peak in January.

[YmoBeThere]

Press release from Pfizer:

REAL-WORLD EVIDENCE CONFIRMS HIGH EFFECTIVENESS OF PFIZER-BIONTECH COVID-19 VACCINE AND PROFOUND PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACT OF VACCINATION ONE YEAR AFTER PANDEMIC DECLARED

Thursday, March 11, 2021 - 06:45am

"The latest analysis from the MoH proves that two weeks after the second vaccine dose protection is even stronger – vaccine effectiveness was at least 97% in preventing symptomatic disease, severe/critical disease and death."

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-re...iveness-pfizer

[CDu]

We should top the 100 million dose mark in the US today, and perhaps will top 20% of the population having gotten a dose. We are also closing in on 2/3 of the 65+ population having 1 dose and 1/3 fully vaccinated.

[richardjackson199]

Some tidbits from Dr. Ohl's recent update:

-- With many children/adolescents getting back to in-person school, he emphasizes mask-wearing as the most important guideline for school. The NC guidelines and Governor Cooper's new bipartisan law were guided by evidence from Duke's ABC Science collaborative. Some school may thus limit social distancing to 3 feet to get more kids back in-person, but mandatory mask-wearing cannot be compromised. While most teachers will have been vaccinated, many at-risk caregivers of the children/adolescents have not. And if the kids get Covid at school they can still bring it home to them.

--He predicts adolescents 12 and older to hopefully be eligible for vaccines late in the summer at the earliest. He predicts children under 12 will Not be eligible for the vaccine for at least another year. This is of course due to waiting for results of safety/efficacy trials in children/adolescents. So expect mandatory masking for children/adolescents at school to continue for a good long while, and for good reason.

--As CDu has noted above, he continues to expect a large increase in available vaccine supply in the US, especially over the next 4 weeks.

--This was also noted above, but he's also pretty hopeful about this potential future therapeutic showing promise:

https://www.mdedge.com/infectiousdis...racks&sso=true

[Bluedog]

Some tidbits from Dr. Ohl's recent update:

-- With many children/adolescents getting back to in-person school, he emphasizes mask-wearing as the most important guideline for school. The NC guidelines and Governor Cooper's new bipartisan law were guided by evidence from Duke's ABC Science collaborative. Some school may thus limit social distancing to 3 feet to get more kids back in-person, but mandatory mask-wearing cannot be compromised. While most teachers will have been vaccinated, many at-risk caregivers of the children/adolescents have not. And if the kids get Covid at school they can still bring it home to them.

--He predicts adolescents 12 and older to hopefully be eligible for vaccines late in the summer at the earliest. He predicts children under 12 will Not be eligible for the vaccine for at least another year. This is of course due to waiting for results of safety/efficacy trials in children/adolescents. So expect mandatory masking for children/adolescents at school to continue for a good long while, and for good reason.

--As CDu has noted above, he continues to expect a large increase in available vaccine supply in the US, especially over the next 4 weeks.

--This was also noted above, but he's also pretty hopeful about this potential future therapeutic showing promise:

https://www.mdedge.com/infectiousdis...racks&sso=true

I think the bolded is correct, but if 12+ is all vaccinated and there's very little community spread, it would seem odd to me to have young children continue to mask. COVID is basically going to be around forever, so at some point, you have to accept SOME risk. Of course, it's going to be hard to change mindsets. I also certainly don't know what numbers will be like several months into the future.

I think it probably happens though that schools will still require it, but was hoping my 2-year-old won't have to forever as has caused a major dependency/anxiety issue of leaving house and the longer it goes on, the more it's going to happen. I recognize many states it's only 5+ whereas the WHO recommends masks for 12+ and in certain situations for 6-11 (but not for 5 and below). My state is 2+ though.

[camion]

The Economist has an interactive chart of Estimated covid-19 risk if diagnosed in the United States

For me the numbers indicate that I was wise to hide from the disease.* They estimate a 36% chance of hospitalization and 5% chance of death for someone in my 'condition.'

Interestingly, had I been female those numbers have dropped to 23% and 3%.




*I'm over 70 and so at pretty high risk. Luckily I was able to find available Moderna vaccine.

[johnb]

I’ve been thrilled by the vaccine results, and equally thrilled by the ramped-up production.

We may be back to normal in a matter of months.

Or we may be back in our bunkers. Ongoing infections in Brazil or South Africa or Houston could allow some of those trillions and trillions of covid particles to mutate into something that isn’t covered by our vaccines, and/or is more lethal.

I’m as worried about the rush to normalize around the country as I am about the apparent lack of interest in getting vaccines to the rest of the world (both for humanitarian reasons and self protection). No way for me to know if we’re preparing to unleash vaccines into the developing world, but I sure hope we’ve got plans.

[richardjackson199]

I’ve been thrilled by the vaccine results, and equally thrilled by the ramped-up production.

We may be back to normal in a matter of months.

Or we may be back in our bunkers. Ongoing infections in Brazil or South Africa or Houston could allow some of those trillions and trillions of covid particles to mutate into something that isn’t covered by our vaccines, and/or is more lethal.

I’m as worried about the rush to normalize around the country as I am about the apparent lack of interest in getting vaccines to the rest of the world (both for humanitarian reasons and self protection). No way for me to know if we’re preparing to unleash vaccines into the developing world, but I sure hope we’ve got plans.

FWIW Biden has already said we will be doing this. He has purchased millions more vaccines than the entire US population. I'm guessing the US is just mostly focused on getting the US vaccinated first, but safe bet is sharing the rest of our vaccines with the world is next.