Yep.
In the Pfizer trial the same thing was seen; that is to say, there were a fair number of cases in the vaccine group, but they occurred early after vaccination. In the case of the Pfizer vaccine, though, protection seemed to really pick up after 12 days had passed from receipt of the vaccine. If you looked at a graph of the vaccine group versus the placebo group, the lines were essentially identical through the first twelve days; thereafter, cases in the vaccinated group leveled off while infections in the placebo group continued upward at approximately the same trajectory.
"We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust
Merck to manufacture J&J vaccine, per Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...e-partnership/
President Biden will announce Tuesday that pharmaceutical giant Merck will help make Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot coronavirus vaccine — an unusual pact between fierce competitors that could sharply boost the supply of the newly authorized vaccine, according to senior administration officials.
Thanks for sharing the StatNews article. My only quibble is that statement "there were six hospitalizations for those who received the vaccine" may be a bit misleading. My understanding from skimming the J&J FDA submission is that 4 of the 6 hospitalizations in the vaccine group occurred less than 14 days after vaccination. As RSVman points out (below), all of the approved vaccines seem to have limited effect for the first 10-14 days. So we can probably discount these 4 early hospitalizations.
Here is the relevant table from the FDA submission.
JnJ-Table 18.jpg
If I am reading this correctly, 4 of the hospitalizations in the vaccine group occurred 1-13 days after vaccination, 2 occurred 14-27 days after vaccination, and 0 occurred 28 or more days after vaccination. This compares to 13, 13, 16 in the placebo group over the same timeframes.
This means that from day 14 onwards, there were 2 hospitalizations in the vaccine group and 29 in the placebo group. That translates to a VE of 93.1% (95% CI= 72.7% - 99.2%) for avoiding hospitalization.
I am not a statistician, but I would be surprised if any difference in the observed hospitalization rate (from 14 days onward) between the J&J and Pfizer or Moderna vaccines is statistically significant. On the other hand, the studies were likely underpowered to detect a difference in hospitalization between the vaccines, so we probably can't rule out a difference.
Here is the relevant figure from J&J's FDA submission. As with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, there was almost no difference in cases for the first 14 days. The lines diverge significantly 14 days.
JnJ-Figure 1.jpg
Another quirk I found after skimming the J&J FDA submission is that their definition of "moderate to severe/critical COVID" appears to capture nearly all symptomatic cases. According to the submission "There were only 4 centrally confirmed mild COVID-19 cases (1 in vaccine group, 3 in placebo group) with onset ≥14 days post-vaccination, indicating that the moderate to severe/critical primary efficacy endpoint definition captured almost all cases of symptomatic COVID-19."
Exactly. I've read mild criticisms of the Pfizer and Moderna trials, saying that they didn't really capture mild cases of Covid, because trial participants weren't asked about mild symptoms like loss of taste and smell. It's not clear to me that the efficacy rates of the three EUA vaccines reflect the same methodology.
Bottom line is that all three vaccines are pretty darned good at preventing severe cases of Covid after 14 days and even better 30 or more days out.
So Texas is lifting all COVID related restrictions on businesses effective 3/10 and is also going to end the state wide mask mandate.
smh
Today marks the lowest totals in new cases since late October; lowest number of deaths in three months. All are seven-day averages per Worldometer. Numbers are just drifting downwards rather than decreasing sharply like two weeks ago. Seven-day average for new cases is 66,300; for deaths, 1,932.
Last edited by sagegrouse; 03-02-2021 at 10:50 PM. Reason: Grammar
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
We have already seen this though. Florida has had all schools open, Disneyworld open, and pretty poor mask wearing throughout. It's a different world from a NY or CA. I've been told by those visiting it's a "culture shock." Do the numbers bear that out? I'm honestly not sure. But don't know why. (And data clearly shows masks work. Just don't know if it's clear that the states with fewer restrictions have fared much worse for whatever reason. Maybe they have.)
I would expect individuals' behaviors (mobility, non-mask wearing, etc) has a bigger impact than state restrictions or lack thereof, but there could be some correlation between the two. Probably depends on the restrictions. I think data has shown "highly controlled" environments (e.g schools) generally do not contribute to much increased spread. People hanging out with friends in their homes without masks certainly does...
I have not traveled extensively around Florida during the past year, but we live in Orlando and get out and about quite a bit -- 2-3 trips to grocery stores each week, probably the same number of shopping excursions into "big box" stores, regular appointments for haircuts and visits to our dentists and doctors, and picking up take-out food once or twice a week. I don't know where the people who characterized the environment in Florida as "culture shock" may have visited, but I can tell you that what they're describing is markedly different from what we're seeing around here.
During the past 3-4 months, I've seen a cumulative total of no more than 5 customers in the two Publix grocery stores or the Fresh Market we frequent who were not wearing a face covering. In the retail stores and barber shop and doctors' offices I've visited, I haven't seen a single individual above kindergarten age who failed to wear a mask. You mentioned Disney World. As it happens, my wife and I made our first trip since last March out to EPCOT two weeks ago to spend a day at the Festival of the Arts with our granddaughter before the event concluded. As you can see from the attached photos, everyone was complying with the mask requirement except when eating or drinking, during which they must be seated.
So while I can't attest to the level of compliance elsewhere around Florida, I can assure you that the reports of "pretty poor mask wearing throughout" are exaggerated, at least in the Orlando area.
PXL_20210221_195911813.MP -- Passing the Mexico pavilion at EPCOT.jpgPXL_20210221_193448628.MP -- Approaching the Italy pavilion at EPCOT.jpg
^Fair enough, Stay Gator. Thank you for your firsthand account. I think that also reinforcers the idea that "controlled environments" (grocery store, a theme park that has rules, etc.) leads to more compliance. The stories I heard were from a co-worker from Boston who went down to the west coast of Florida and frequented restaurants/bars...He is a young guy who had recently had COVID so he himself I think was not being very cautious but said what he saw was definitely not what he was accustomed to in Boston.
Regardless, I think it's fair to say Florida has been a state that has "opened up" more aggressively than most. The economy is certainly better for it. I have no idea if COVID cases are or not. California ain't letting Disneyland open still...
According to the NY Times, Florida has 1.9 million cases, and 8,900 per 100K. On a per capita basis, this puts them behind NY, NJ, RI, SC, DE, and GA. They've had 31,134 deaths, which is 0.61 per 100K. The per capita death figure puts them at #13, behind VA, AL, OK, AZ, TX, CA, GA, MS, DE, RI, NM, and MA.