PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[YmoBeThere]

I know that in a regression analysis I did, history of depression was not significant for predicting suicide when access to means was also in the model.

I've only recently begun working with Tweedie distributions. It's really changed my thinking from viewing the world in standard normal terms.

[budwom]

Cabin Fever is a real problem in cold locations, and after a year of Covid, I fear that our usual top suicide month, April, could be even worse this year..not sure if April has that rep in other locations, but it sure does here...

[Bostondevil]

I've only recently begun working with Tweedie distributions. It's really changed my thinking from viewing the world in standard normal terms.

I'm not there yet. There is a factor in the study of US suicides which cannot be mentioned here, but, until that factor is studied in depth, we will not have a completely clear picture of suicide in the US. There is something that is physically simple to do to drastically reduce suicides but getting compliance would be nearly impossible.

[jimsumner]

Cabin Fever is a real problem in cold locations, and after a year of Covid, I fear that our usual top suicide month, April, could be even worse this year..not sure if April has that rep in other locations, but it sure does here...

One of my next-door neighbors lived for a few years in Maine. When he told me that mental health cratered in Maine in April, I was incredulous. Wouldn't the arrival of spring after months of cold and darkness and snow be a good thing, I asked.

Apparently not I was told. The problem was melting snow turning into floods and mud, acres and acres of mud, mud on roads and driveways, and yards and shoes, more mud than anyone could stand.

As someone who's lived his entire life in the Carolinas--mostly North--this was a perspective with which I was otherwise unfamiliar. Is mud the same problem in Vermont?

[Bostondevil]

One of my next-door neighbors lived for a few years in Maine. When he told me that mental health cratered in Maine in April, I was incredulous. Wouldn't the arrival of spring after months of cold and darkness and snow be a good thing, I asked.

Apparently not I was told. The problem was melting snow turning into floods and mud, acres and acres of mud, mud on roads and driveways, and yards and shoes, more mud than anyone could stand.

As someone who's lived his entire life in the Carolinas--mostly North--this was a perspective with which I was otherwise unfamiliar. Is mud the same problem in Vermont?

You mean mud season? Spring in New England is about 3 days in May. Then you get a cool spell in June where you are wearing a coat (usually your lighter weight coat, but still a coat) sometimes you even see a few flakes with this cool spell, this period is followed by the July heat wave that lasts for about 3 weeks and kills a few dozen people. Sometimes the heat wave lasts through the first week of August. After that, we have 3 months of gorgeous punctuated by all the fall leaves. People continue to live in New England because of October, it's the only reason.

There is a saying around these parts - never make in big life decisions in March.

[jimsumner]

You mean mud season? Spring in New England is about 3 days in May. Then you get a cool spell in June where you are wearing a coat (usually your lighter weight coat, but still a coat) sometimes you even see a few flakes with this cool spell, this period is followed by the July heat wave that lasts for about 3 weeks and kills a few dozen people. Sometimes the heat wave lasts through the first week of August. After that, we have 3 months of gorgeous punctuated by all the fall leaves. People continue to live in New England because of October, it's the only reason.

There is a saying around these parts - never make in big life decisions in March.

A friend--different friend-grew up in Maine and tells me that he used to have high-school baseball games snowed out in May.

It should be noted that lots of people who used to live in New England now seem to live in North Carolina.

Of course, they have to adjust to our five-month summers. It ain't the heat, it's the humidity.

[Ggallagher]

One of my next-door neighbors lived for a few years in Maine. When he told me that mental health cratered in Maine in April, I was incredulous. Wouldn't the arrival of spring after months of cold and darkness and snow be a good thing, I asked.

Apparently not I was told. The problem was melting snow turning into floods and mud, acres and acres of mud, mud on roads and driveways, and yards and shoes, more mud than anyone could stand.

As someone who's lived his entire life in the Carolinas--mostly North--this was a perspective with which I was otherwise unfamiliar. Is mud the same problem in Vermont?

I worked for a few years at our mill in the Upper Peninsula. There is no such thing as winter time cabin fever up there. Those people live for their outdoor winter activities. They're just different folks We even borrowed some of them once for a project at our mill in Pensacola - one of the more desirable locations in our fleet of mills. The Yoopers were miserable there. Several of them got quite excited and happy when they were told they were being reassigned to a project we had going on in Maine. Sort of left all of us "normal" folks scratching our heads.

[sagegrouse]

A friend--different friend-grew up in Maine and tells me that he used to have high-school baseball games snowed out in May.

It should be noted that lots of people who used to live in New England now seem to live in North Carolina.

Of course, they have to adjust to our five-month summers. It ain't the heat, it's the humidity.

I had a friend who grew up on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. His senior class picnic on June 5 was snowed out. He got on his motorcycle, drove all the way to Corpus Christi and enlisted in the Navy. He became a senior Dept. of Navy civilian and the mayor of one of the towns south of DC.

[DukieInKansas]

A friend--different friend-grew up in Maine and tells me that he used to have high-school baseball games snowed out in May.

It should be noted that lots of people who used to live in New England now seem to live in North Carolina.

Of course, they have to adjust to our five-month summers. It ain't the heat, it's the humidity.

Or, as BiL Alan says - It's not the heat, it's the humanity.

[budwom]

One of my next-door neighbors lived for a few years in Maine. When he told me that mental health cratered in Maine in April, I was incredulous. Wouldn't the arrival of spring after months of cold and darkness and snow be a good thing, I asked.

Apparently not I was told. The problem was melting snow turning into floods and mud, acres and acres of mud, mud on roads and driveways, and yards and shoes, more mud than anyone could stand.

As someone who's lived his entire life in the Carolinas--mostly North--this was a perspective with which I was otherwise unfamiliar. Is mud the same problem in Vermont?

Yes, we do not have Spring per se, we have Winter, then mud season (April) then Summer (which happens to be incredibly nice). It isn't so much the melting snow that causes the mud, since we do plow our roads...rather the problem is frost, which goes way way down into the ground quite a few feet in Winter (twenty degrees below zero will do that) and when it eventually thaws, you get gobs and gobs of mud.

You also get frost heaves...just today, out on our walk, we found a town worker putting out Frost Heave signs... https://www.si.com/longform/2015/fro...ves/index.html Pavement buckled all over the place.

As a scribe, you may well know of veteran Sports Illustrated writer Alexander Wolff who owned the Vermont Frost Heaves hoop team that gloriously won the (reconstituted) American Basketball Championship...it's a long read, but a pretty incredible one...a bunch of pretty good black players come to Vermont, win a championship, and have a pretty memorable experience...(including the invasion of 7 foot nine inch Sun Ming Ming).

[Bostondevil]

A friend--different friend-grew up in Maine and tells me that he used to have high-school baseball games snowed out in May.

It should be noted that lots of people who used to live in New England now seem to live in North Carolina.

Of course, they have to adjust to our five-month summers. It ain't the heat, it's the humidity.

I grew up in Durham, so, I know. Most New Englanders are wimps when it comes to humidity.

[sagegrouse]

Yes, we do not have Spring per se, we have Winter, then mud season (April) then Summer (which happens to be incredibly nice). It isn't so much the melting snow that causes the mud, since we do plow our roads...rather the problem is frost, which goes way way down into the ground quite a few feet in Winter (twenty degrees below zero will do that) and when it eventually thaws, you get gobs and gobs of mud.

You also get frost heaves...just today, out on our walk, we found a town worker putting out Frost Heave signs... https://www.si.com/longform/2015/fro...ves/index.html Pavement buckled all over the place.

As a scribe, you may well know of veteran Sports Illustrated writer Alexander Wolff who owned the Vermont Frost Heaves hoop team that gloriously won the (reconstituted) American Basketball Championship...it's a long read, but a pretty incredible one...a bunch of pretty good black players come to Vermont, win a championship, and have a pretty memorable experience...(including the invasion of 7 foot nine inch Sun Ming Ming).

We have winter in the Colorado Rockies from Nov. 15 (or so) to late April. Mud season lasts well into June. Then a glorious summer -- every month is different -- through to late September (snow possible from mid-August on). Then from mid-September to mid-November we have "orange-vest season." A few leaf peepers but all the other visitors are hunters. The hikers clear out big time after Labor Day (bow-and-arrow season for big game is Sept. 2-30). Muzzle-loaders in the second half of September and rifle from roughly Oct. 1 to November 19. Bird-hunting season is depressing -- not only Sage Grouse but also Sandhill Cranes (the T-bones of the prairie).

[sagegrouse]

Reduction of 1.0 years in life expectancy due to COVID. Suppose (virtually all deaths) are among people over 60, which constitutes 22 percent (or so) of population. Then the average decline in life expectancy for 60+ may be 4-5 years not one year.

[camion]

Reduction of 1.0 years in life expectancy due to COVID. Suppose (virtually all deaths) are among people over 60, which constitutes 22 percent (or so) of population. Then the average decline in life expectancy for 60+ may be 4-5 years not one year.

I really don't like those numbers. For someone entering their eighth decade that could mean a 20% decrease in life expectancy (years remaining).

[budwom]

^ latest stats here have 92% of deaths coming from the 65+ population...but they're methodically (if slowly, hampered by availability) vaccinating first the 75+ group, then 70+, then 65+, then the rest...

[duke79]

Yes, we do not have Spring per se, we have Winter, then mud season (April) then Summer (which happens to be incredibly nice). It isn't so much the melting snow that causes the mud, since we do plow our roads...rather the problem is frost, which goes way way down into the ground quite a few feet in Winter (twenty degrees below zero will do that) and when it eventually thaws, you get gobs and gobs of mud.

You also get frost heaves...just today, out on our walk, we found a town worker putting out Frost Heave signs... https://www.si.com/longform/2015/fro...ves/index.html Pavement buckled all over the place.

As a scribe, you may well know of veteran Sports Illustrated writer Alexander Wolff who owned the Vermont Frost Heaves hoop team that gloriously won the (reconstituted) American Basketball Championship...it's a long read, but a pretty incredible one...a bunch of pretty good black players come to Vermont, win a championship, and have a pretty memorable experience...(including the invasion of 7 foot nine inch Sun Ming Ming).

Old joke in Vermont: There are two seasons in Vermont - Winter and August.

[jimsumner]

Pfizer now says vaccine can be stored in regular freezers.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp

[cspan37421]

I really don't like those numbers. For someone entering their eighth decade that could mean a 20% decrease in life expectancy (years remaining).

Life expectancy isn't something you use up on a 1:1 basis. For instance, if your life expectancy at birth is say 75 years, it's not 5 if you make it to age 70.

[jimsumner]

Life expectancy isn't something you use up on a 1:1 basis. For instance, if your life expectancy at birth is say 75 years, it's not 5 if you make it to age 70.

That's a relief.

[Bluedog]

Thought this school opening dashboard would be interesting for some:
https://cai.burbio.com/school-opening-tracker/

State boundaries = forcefields. Look at that TX/NM border...Or many others.