PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Bostondevil]

To be fair, I would argue many European nations showed they "understand science" and were "adult countries" but certainly didn't get the results of a New Zealand. There are other factors at play sometime. Obviously being a small island nation allows for more stringent borders and a cohesive plan. I guess one could argue Hawaii is similar, and their numbers have been the best in the US, but they're still part of the US.

For the US, we are extremely about "individual freedom" and don't listen to authorities/sacrifice for the greater good typically...so even with a strong top-down approach, we were likely going to be in trouble... Much like the UK or similar.

A small but vocal minority of people in the US are extremely about "individual freedom" and lack respect for anyone that doesn't agree with them (more than not listening, they are aware of what experts tell them, they just don't give credit to anything that disagrees with their "authority".) The majority or people in the US will listen to expertise and sacrifice for the greater good - if that weren't true, we'd have a couple million dead by now, maybe more.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

To be fair, I would argue many European nations showed they "understand science" and were "adult countries" but certainly didn't get the results of a New Zealand. There are other factors at play sometime. Obviously being a small island nation allows for more stringent borders and a cohesive plan. I guess one could argue Hawaii is similar, and their numbers have been the best in the US, but they're still part of the US.

For the US, we are extremely about "individual freedom" and don't listen to authorities/sacrifice for the greater good typically...so even with a strong top-down approach, we were likely going to be in trouble... Much like the UK or similar. And add to that that the states have great power in enacting their own stances and we've had a patchwork of differing policies with free travel between them (except Hawaii). Our philosophies/strategies even by the CDC have changed over time. As an example, what happened to "flatten the curve"? Haven't heard that in a while but perhaps that undermined future efforts by people who thought that was the mission and that hospitals in their area now have plenty of capacity. Shifting narratives -- even when somewhat warranted with a change in data -- don't instill confidence with the masses.

But, to the bigger point, that's literally how science works. Especially when dealing with an unknown, you start somewhere - anywhere - and then refine your strategy based on new information.

The whole "well, they said DON'T wear masks and then they said wear masks, so how should we trust them?" is understandable but reflects a lack of comprehension of the scientific method. It's literally trial and error. You refine, refine, refine as you collect more data.

What makes me lose my mind is the idea that these doctors/scientists/specialist as have been studying these things for decades and FB groups of arm chair quarterbacks are rolling their eyes and second guessing them.

These people are literally trying to save lives, and those who insist on pushing back believe... What exactly? That they are wrong? In on a conspiracy? Trying to get one over on them? Taking away their rights?

Ridiculous.

[Bluedog]

A small but vocal minority of people in the US are extremely about "individual freedom" and lack respect for anyone that doesn't agree with them (more than not listening, they are aware of what experts tell them, they just don't give credit to anything that disagrees with their "authority".) The majority or people in the US will listen to expertise and sacrifice for the greater good - if that weren't true, we'd have a couple million dead by now, maybe more.

That's fair. Certainly many sacrifices have been made by many Americans for the greater good and undoubtedly that has helped. I simply meant to suggest that America as a society (and most Western cultures) is more "individualistic" than an Asian culture as an example. And that difference manifests in some additional challenges with a pandemic.

And for the record, I hope nobody is thinking I'm showing sympathy for anti-maskers or anything. Obviously, they have been ridiculous and many people have been selfish. Yes, Boston devil, it may show lack of understanding of the scientific method. I would venture to guess the vast majority of Americans do not understand it.

Simply suggesting that how we're structured as a nation and the diversity of types of people all with an individualistic streak (even those who are following masking/social distancing still ascribe to those ideals and may be doing other things) makes it especially frought.

I would have never guessed in a million years that wearing a mask would become political. That makes no sense. I also wouldn't have guessed that having elementary schools open or not would be political, but it has been. I would want both driven by science and health policy.

[Bostondevil]

That's fair. Certainly many sacrifices have been made by many Americans for the greater good and undoubtedly that has helped. I simply meant to suggest that America as a society (and most Western cultures) is more "individualistic" than an Asian culture as an example. And that difference manifests in some additional challenges with a pandemic.

And for the record, I hope nobody is thinking I'm showing sympathy for anti-maskers or anything. Obviously, they have been ridiculous and many people have been selfish. Yes, Boston devil, it may show lack of understanding of the scientific method. I would venture to guess the vast majority of Americans do not understand it.

Simply suggesting that how we're structured as a nation and the diversity of types of people all with an individualistic streak (even those who are following masking/social distancing still ascribe to those ideals and may be doing other things) makes it especially frought.

I would have never guessed in a million years that wearing a mask would become political. That makes no sense. I also wouldn't have guessed that having elementary schools open or not would be political, but it has been. I would want both driven by science and health policy.

Fair enough. Given that I have spent my career in public health, I know there is always significant resistance to any public health measure, no matter how innocuous the measure might seem. So, while I wouldn't have guessed the extent of the resistance, I knew at least some of it was coming and only good leadership would work to keep that resistance to a minimum. We take our shoes off at airports, we have lock downs during active shooter situations, we close highways, airports, and schools for weather events, we let cops give us traffic tickets for ridiculous reasons that have nothing to do with safety. We aren't that individualistic, not really. It only comes up when we are trying to implement public health measures.

[OldPhiKap]

But, to the bigger point, that's literally how science works. Especially when dealing with an unknown, you start somewhere - anywhere - and then refine your strategy based on new information.

The whole "well, they said DON'T wear masks and then they said wear masks, so how should we trust them?" is understandable but reflects a lack of comprehension of the scientific method. It's literally trial and error. You refine, refine, refine as you collect more data.

What makes me lose my mind is the idea that these doctors/scientists/specialist as have been studying these things for decades and FB groups of arm chair quarterbacks are rolling their eyes and second guessing them.

These people are literally trying to save lives, and those who insist on pushing back believe... What exactly? That they are wrong? In on a conspiracy? Trying to get one over on them? Taking away their rights?

Ridiculous.

"The thing about science is, it's true whether you believe in it or not."

-- Neil deGrasse Tyson

[Bluedog]

Ok well changing the subject a bit now, promising news out of Israel which has been the world leader in vaccinations.

"94% drop in symptomatic COVID cases among Israel's vaccinated - study"

https://m.jpost.com/health-science/c...-19-658959/amp

"The data, which was based on a study of 1,200,000 people – 600,000 who received the vaccine and 600,000 who did not – showed 94% fewer symptomatic coronavirus cases and 92% fewer cases of serious illness among those who were vaccinated."

Seems to match the clinical trial results quite well.

[Skydog]

Ok well changing the subject a bit now, promising news out of Israel which has been the world leader in vaccinations.

"94% drop in symptomatic COVID cases among Israel's vaccinated - study"

https://m.jpost.com/health-science/c...-19-658959/amp

"The data, which was based on a study of 1,200,000 people – 600,000 who received the vaccine and 600,000 who did not – showed 94% fewer symptomatic coronavirus cases and 92% fewer cases of serious illness among those who were vaccinated."

Seems to match the clinical trial results quite well.

Those kind of numbers mean that if we could get this vaccine into everyone's arms in a week the virus would almost disappear in a month and we wouldn't have to worry so much about new variants. Sure the virus would continue to evolve, but very slowly, since the world would no longer be providing 10's of millions of human virus reproduction machines.

So now we are in a critical race - can the pace of world-wide vaccination distribution beat the pace of resistant variant emergence? Stay tuned.

[JasonEvans]

Brilliant explanation of how the vaccine works.

From XKCD, which is always brilliant: https://xkcd.com/2425/

[camion]

Great clear* explanation.

I knew there was a good reason to see the original Star Wars movie 37 times despite the objections of my parents.





*Clear to Star Wars geeks.

[MChambers]

Former college soccer player who's been ill for a year:

"I wake up every morning, and I brace myself. What’s it going to be today? I’m what they call a “long-hauler,” where covid takes over your body and won’t go away. Doctors think there might be tens of thousands of us, but nobody really knows. It’s a medical mystery. It’s like a random grab bag of symptoms. You reach in, and you never know what you’re going to get. How about some nausea and severe dizziness? Or would you prefer a migraine with a side of joint pain? Some issues are constant, like body aches and head-to-toe fatigue, but the weirder ones seem to randomly come and go: ringing ears, sore ribs, heart palpitations, ear popping, numbness in my fingers, excessive mouth watering, lightheadedness, brain fog. My memory loss is so bad sometimes that it’s like I have amnesia."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...d/?arc404=true

[PackMan97]

It sounds like there is growing evidence that the South African variant is able to elude natural immunity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...63f_story.html

It also sounds like the Astrazeneca vaccine does provide some limited protection, but considerably reduced from the original strain.

https://www.contagionlive.com/view/a...riant-response

I'm not really sure what the world is going to look like if we can't get ahead of these variants. Something that kills at the rate this does and produces severe illness in many as well as the long-haul result in many others isn't something we can really deal with every day, is it?

[DukieInKansas]

5f52a951d1c05.image.jpg

We have a new person starting in the office today. She is wearing this kind of face mask. I'm not comfortable with it but wanted opinions. Thoughts?

[mpj96]

It sounds like there is growing evidence that the South African variant is able to elude natural immunity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...63f_story.html

It also sounds like the Astrazeneca vaccine does provide some limited protection, but considerably reduced from the original strain.

https://www.contagionlive.com/view/a...riant-response

I'm not really sure what the world is going to look like if we can't get ahead of these variants. Something that kills at the rate this does and produces severe illness in many as well as the long-haul result in many others isn't something we can really deal with every day, is it?

As "successful" disease mutation happens, I think we'll have to get much faster at approving modifications to the original vaccines (boosters) which take the new strain(s) into account.

[PackMan97]

5f52a951d1c05.image.jpg

We have a new person starting in the office today. She is wearing this kind of face mask. I'm not comfortable with it but wanted opinions. Thoughts?

It is not PPE. It will not protect her, it will not protect other people. That's a bit like saying, I don't want to wear a mask, I'll just cough into my elbow, k?

[cspan37421]

We have a new person starting in the office today. She is wearing this kind of face mask. I'm not comfortable with it but wanted opinions. Thoughts?

Hard to tell what it's doing. Looks like a combination of a chin diaper and drool bucket.

[throatybeard]

Ugly t-shirt, too. 😂😂

[DukieInKansas]

Ugly t-shirt, too. 😂😂

Could be uglier - it could be a pale blue one.

[Bluedog]

Ugly t-shirt, too. 😂😂

Random comment - I came across this article yesterday. Who knew?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/14/tech/crying-laughing-emoji-gen-z/index.html
"Sorry, millennials. The 😂 emoji isn't cool anymore"

[PackMan97]

Hard to tell what it's doing. Looks like a combination of a chin diaper and drool bucket.

https://www.amazon.com/Reusable-Wash.../dp/B08H4KCV87

[aimo]

https://www.amazon.com/Reusable-Wash.../dp/B08H4KCV87

Given that many institutions are beginning to require FDA approved medical grade masks that fit SNUGLY to the face (at my hospital, anyone entering wearing a cloth mask is given one to replace it. The person may opt to wear the cloth one over it) this is useless as a COVID mask. Anything coming out of her mouth or nose is going up and out into the air. Ridiculous.