PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I think we'll spend most of next year getting kids caught up on the basics. One plan I've heard from a middle school is adding a period a day, going to a schedule with 8 short periods on Mondays, and 4 longer periods Tue-Fri, alternating. Math will be two of those periods, so kids get it every day. English will be emphasized in social studies/history.

As to the cases, how much testing is going on in your schools? Kids are mostly asymptomatic, as are many adults; how would they know?

-jk

The extra school time is a great idea but I doubt teachers, especially ones in districts with strong unions, will agree to the extra hours. Also, particularly with younger kids, there is only so long of a school day that they can tolerate. I have also heard summer school mentioned but I don't see how that gets implemented.

I am really hoping we have something resembling normal school in the fall to minimize the losses we have had. If we maintain our current rate of vaccinations, barring the unforeseen (huge caveat there), I don't see any reason why this can't happen.

[sparv]

As to the cases, how much testing is going on in your schools? Kids are mostly asymptomatic, as are many adults; how would they know?

-jk

That's a fair point. It is possible that there is a high level of asymptomatic virus in the schools, but I imagine that we would see higher symptomatic rates along with it, especially since (like most schools), there are many older teachers who may be at high-risk. The public school runs multiple mass testing sites which are available to students and staff. There is no mandatory or comprehensive testing. I'm not sure how feasible it would be for little ones. I have had both of my children tested and the process was traumatic enough for them to require milkshakes and toys afterward. I couldn't see it becoming a routine procedure.

[aimo]

yeah, airplanes have the most Hygiene Theater performances...they'll spray and wipe down every surface on the plane, then plunk some dolt next to you who's coughing up some Covid...but the air handling will keep you safe!

I am going to avoid flying for quite some time if I can. That being said, when I do fly again, I will wipe down the seats, tray table, arms, etc with Clorox wipes, just I have done pre-COVID. People are gross.

[Bluedog]

I am going to avoid flying for quite some time if I can. That being said, when I do fly again, I will wipe down the seats, tray table, arms, etc with Clorox wipes, just I have done pre-COVID. People are gross.

I know someone who works for Clorox, and they expect their business to be booming for a LONG time. People's mindset has totally shifted, likely for good in many situations. The disinfectant business has been good...But yes, airplanes were always gross and I also had hand sanitizer at least (although I didn't wipe down seats/tray tables). But even with that, for COVID, the risk of someone coughing near you on a plane and you getting infected is much much higher than a surface contaminant somehow getting you sick. Of course, with masks and more spread out seats, that risk is more minimized than it would be otherwise.

[rsvman]

That's what my doc said yesterday at my annual -- that g.i. bugs can transmit by surface, but respiratory bugs like this pass through aerosol emission.

This is a gross oversimplification and is certainly not true. We have lots of experimental evidence that rhinoviruses (the most frequent cause of common cold) are transmitted from surfaces fairly easily and can be inoculated into the eye by a hand that has touched, for example, a doorknob or tabletop that was previously touched by someone who was infected.

Having said that, all signs point to the main mode of transmission of this particular virus being through close contact and by breathing it in moreso that from contaminated surfaces. I don't think anyone has yet proved that it can't be spread from contaminated surfaces, but if it can, it definitely seems to be a much less common mode of spread.

[cato]

Here is the best piece (column by the WaPo editorial board) I have read on the questions about the origin of Covid 19 and the need for more transparency from China: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...line_manual_26

I sure wish that we could be discussing these questions rationally, but then again I also wish I was a little bit taller. And a baller.

[OldPhiKap]

This is a gross oversimplification and is certainly not true. We have lots of experimental evidence that rhinoviruses (the most frequent cause of common cold) are transmitted from surfaces fairly easily and can be inoculated into the eye by a hand that has touched, for example, a doorknob or tabletop that was previously touched by someone who was infected.

Having said that, all signs point to the main mode of transmission of this particular virus being through close contact and by breathing it in moreso that from contaminated surfaces. I don't think anyone has yet proved that it can't be spread from contaminated surfaces, but if it can, it definitely seems to be a much less common mode of spread.

Well, he also said that one of his patients came in all excited because he had read about digital prostate rectal exams and was glad the doc didn't have to use the normal procedure. Doc had to explain what "digital" meant in that context . . . .

But yes, he was generalizing. His point about COVID was that the English variant is more highly transmissible and has been identified in something like 44 states; that folks are getting lax with masks and gathering/congregating/restauranting; and that in countries where the variant has been present have all seen incredible spikes in cases. That folks need to put much more effort into minimizing airborne transmission as opposed to surface fastidiousness.

[budwom]

I am going to avoid flying for quite some time if I can. That being said, when I do fly again, I will wipe down the seats, tray table, arms, etc with Clorox wipes, just I have done pre-COVID. People are gross.

I imagine my mental approach might be different were I 20 years younger, but for the time being I'm nowhere close to flying. Maybe after I get two jabs, AND when the prevalence of virus has decreased nationwide, THEN I'll give it some thought.
At this point, I can't see myself flying anywhere until at least the Fall...(good thing we tend to have nice summers around here).

Meanwhile, we're eight days away from the one year anniversary of our last restaurant meal...glad it was a great one.

[-jk]

The extra school time is a great idea but I doubt teachers, especially ones in districts with strong unions, will agree to the extra hours. Also, particularly with younger kids, there is only so long of a school day that they can tolerate. I have also heard summer school mentioned but I don't see how that gets implemented.

I am really hoping we have something resembling normal school in the fall to minimize the losses we have had. If we maintain our current rate of vaccinations, barring the unforeseen (huge caveat there), I don't see any reason why this can't happen.

There won't be extra hours, just redistributed hours.

-jk

[sagegrouse]

Here is the best piece (column by the WaPo editorial board) I have read on the questions about the origin of Covid 19 and the need for more transparency from China: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...line_manual_26

I sure wish that we could be discussing these questions rationally, but then again I also wish I was a little bit taller. And a baller.

Oh my! Raises some questions that China and Wuhan lab need to answer.

[budwom]

Here is the best piece (column by the WaPo editorial board) I have read on the questions about the origin of Covid 19 and the need for more transparency from China: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...line_manual_26

I sure wish that we could be discussing these questions rationally, but then again I also wish I was a little bit taller. And a baller.

The Frontline piece on China and its response was both fair and damning. Unfortunately, the WHO is stuck being a political organization, and as such has to be careful (or chooses to) in what it says.

While the WHO was publicly praising China for being completely forthright with its data sharing, in fact the organization was finding the Chinese to be obfuscating at every turn, couldn't get a straight answer about a host of questions.

[cato]

The Frontline piece on China and its response was both fair and damning. Unfortunately, the WHO is stuck being a political organization, and as such has to be careful (or chooses to) in what it says.

While the WHO was publicly praising China for being completely forthright with its data sharing, in fact the organization was finding the Chinese to be obfuscating at every turn, couldn't get a straight answer about a host of questions.

I definitely need to check this out. Frontline generally does an excellent job with investigative journalism.

[PackMan97]

The Frontline piece on China and its response was both fair and damning. Unfortunately, the WHO is stuck being a political organization, and as such has to be careful (or chooses to) in what it says.

While the WHO was publicly praising China for being completely forthright with its data sharing, in fact the organization was finding the Chinese to be obfuscating at every turn, couldn't get a straight answer about a host of questions.

One of my biggest problems is that Taiwan couldn't even present to the WHO their early knowledge, which they absolutely nailed. Early reports from Taiwan were ignored because China didn't want Taiwan acknowledged internationally as a separate entity.

https://time.com/5826025/taiwan-who-...virus-covid19/

I certainly don't want to say more and make it political, but my family has changed how we purchase things and when possible we avoid buying from certain countries as much as possible. There as just too many reasons.

[Rich]

One of my biggest problems is that Taiwan couldn't even present to the WHO their early knowledge, which they absolutely nailed. Early reports from Taiwan were ignored because China didn't want Taiwan acknowledged internationally as a separate entity.

https://time.com/5826025/taiwan-who-...virus-covid19/

I certainly don't want to say more and make it political, but my family has changed how we purchase things and when possible we avoid buying from certain countries as much as possible. There as just too many reasons.

The article is relevant, but all should note it's from May 2020.

[JasonEvans]

So, over on the EK board, in the This Week in the ACC thread, there is a discussion about the Carolina fans flocking into the streets after beating Duke. I came out as bitterly disappointed in Julian King for his front page article on the DBR that sorta said, "it is ok that thousands of UNC students just spread the disease all over the place because it was cute to see college kids having fun." I won't rehash here how terrible I found that column to be. You can read my comments in the other thread.

But, I wanted to quote this response and have a conversation here about a different topic:

The pandemic has been hard on all of us. But it is so infuriating when the majority of us choose to follow the appropriate guidelines only to have smaller groups decide they shouldn't have to and that the rules don't apply to them, which only serves to prolong the pandemic.

There is something that has been really bugging me lately about vaccine distribution. If you want to lie, you can get a vaccine. If you merely say that you are caring for an older person in your home, they will put you in group 1A in most states. You need not offer any proof that you have anyone in your household.

I know a local elected government official (local office, not that big a deal) who said he and other elected officials were offered the vaccine and were told to mark that they were part of the city's public safety department so they would qualify. My friend was disgusted and refused to take the vaccine out of turn... which made him the only elected official to refuse it.

I have another couple who are friends who are conservatives and they were pretty skeptical of the disease. They were not really into mask wearing, they were convinced that hydroxichloroquine would save them, and they often said it really seemed like it was just a bad flu. Over the weekend they revealed that they had gotten vaccine shots from their brother, who is a doctor (a dermatologist). He's the one who told them that the Hydrox would save them if they caught Covid.

I bring up all this, as connected to the above quoted post by my sweet smelling cakey friend, because it is really, really, really hard to do the right thing during these times. The vaccine is key to us resuming a somewhat normal life and it is soooo tempting to figure out a way to skip the line. I know I could if I wanted to. But, I also know that doing so would deny someone more needy than me from getting it. Now, more than ever, we are at a point where society needs to work together to do the right thing. And yet we all know many, many, many of our fellow citizens are only out for themselves. We know that many of the people who live in our community are cheating and getting ahead of us in line... which makes it even harder to wait because it means our wait is longer than it should be.

I don't really know the point of this note other than to say, as hard as it is, I am trying to do the right thing. I hope all of you are as well. As for my friends who ignored this pandemic and then skipped ahead of others because they live in a family that believes it is more important than everyone else, I'm not sure I can be friends with them any longer. It really hurts me because I really, really like them. My wife and I took a 2 week Mediterranean cruise with this couple in fall of 2019 and had the most delightful time. Our kids are the same age and are very close. But I'm not sure I can look at them and not feel anger and disgust. I have always considered them kind and the very opposite of selfish... but now that has all changed and I hate Covid for causing me to feel this way about some dear friends.

-Jason "and yet, if someone offered me the vaccine right now... would I really turn them down? I don't know... I just don't know... goddamn this... sigh" Evans

[rsvman]

...

... He's the one who told them that the Hydrox would save them if they caught Covid.

...

What about Oreos? Would Oreos work, too?

[Phredd3]

What about Oreos? Would Oreos work, too?

Oreos are clearly superior in every way, so I'm sure they work at least as well as Hydrox in this context, too.

[Bostondevil]

So, over on the EK board, in the This Week in the ACC thread, there is a discussion about the Carolina fans flocking into the streets after beating Duke. I came out as bitterly disappointed in Julian King for his front page article on the DBR that sorta said, "it is ok that thousands of UNC students just spread the disease all over the place because it was cute to see college kids having fun." I won't rehash here how terrible I found that column to be. You can read my comments in the other thread.

But, I wanted to quote this response and have a conversation here about a different topic:



There is something that has been really bugging me lately about vaccine distribution. If you want to lie, you can get a vaccine. If you merely say that you are caring for an older person in your home, they will put you in group 1A in most states. You need not offer any proof that you have anyone in your household.

I know a local elected government official (local office, not that big a deal) who said he and other elected officials were offered the vaccine and were told to mark that they were part of the city's public safety department so they would qualify. My friend was disgusted and refused to take the vaccine out of turn... which made him the only elected official to refuse it.

I have another couple who are friends who are conservatives and they were pretty skeptical of the disease. They were not really into mask wearing, they were convinced that hydroxichloroquine would save them, and they often said it really seemed like it was just a bad flu. Over the weekend they revealed that they had gotten vaccine shots from their brother, who is a doctor (a dermatologist). He's the one who told them that the Hydrox would save them if they caught Covid.

I bring up all this, as connected to the above quoted post by my sweet smelling cakey friend, because it is really, really, really hard to do the right thing during these times. The vaccine is key to us resuming a somewhat normal life and it is soooo tempting to figure out a way to skip the line. I know I could if I wanted to. But, I also know that doing so would deny someone more needy than me from getting it. Now, more than ever, we are at a point where society needs to work together to do the right thing. And yet we all know many, many, many of our fellow citizens are only out for themselves. We know that many of the people who live in our community are cheating and getting ahead of us in line... which makes it even harder to wait because it means our wait is longer than it should be.

I don't really know the point of this note other than to say, as hard as it is, I am trying to do the right thing. I hope all of you are as well. As for my friends who ignored this pandemic and then skipped ahead of others because they live in a family that believes it is more important than everyone else, I'm not sure I can be friends with them any longer. It really hurts me because I really, really like them. My wife and I took a 2 week Mediterranean cruise with this couple in fall of 2019 and had the most delightful time. Our kids are the same age and are very close. But I'm not sure I can look at them and not feel anger and disgust. I have always considered them kind and the very opposite of selfish... but now that has all changed and I hate Covid for causing me to feel this way about some dear friends.

-Jason "and yet, if someone offered me the vaccine right now... would I really turn them down? I don't know... I just don't know... goddamn this... sigh" Evans

Nobody is more needy than anybody else, we all need to get vaccinated. We have, however, had to come up with a distribution system for what is, for now, a limited resource. I don't know if you've ever heard of the "bagel study" about the guy who sold bagels to offices on an honor system basis. He delivered the bagels, if you took one you were supposed to put a dollar (or whatever) in the basket. After a long time of doing this for several offices, the bagel man said that the majority of people were honest but not everybody, and the percent of people who were dishonest (took bagels without paying) was consistent. IIRC, the figure was 85% of people paid for their bagels and 15% didn't. The bagel man adjusted the honor system price to account for that 15% and yes, the honest people ending up paying a little more because of the 15% who didn't, but the bagel man felt that the 85% was encouraging. A majority of humans are honest or ethical or whatever word you want to put on it. A friend of mine has argued for the honor system on the vaccines. Tell people who should go first then make it an honor system. I would guess that the same number of people will be dishonest, 15%, but at the end of the day, we all have to get vaccinated. There will always be people who jump the line, no matter the line, so, when you feel frustrated, just remind yourself that the majority of humans are honest and at least the vaccines didn't go to waste. Better to get shots in arms than to throw vaccines away. We will get the adult population of the US vaccinated by the end of the summer. You will get yours and you will feel better about yourself if you follow your own personal code of ethics regarding the timing.

[mph]

Some positive news: Experimental drug could prevent and treat COVID-19.

They found that the drug was extremely effective at preventing and treating SARS-CoV-2 infection. Phase 2 and 3 clinical trials are ongoing to evaluate EIDD-2801 safety in humans and its effect on viral shedding – when a virus replicates inside your body and is released into the environment- in COVID-19 patients.

Positive news, but unsurprising to long-time readers of this thread. rsvman was talking about the promise of EIDD-2801 10 months ago.

[DukieInKansas]

When all is said and done, many students will have lost close to a year in actual months (9 months this year and 3+ from last year), but the actual loss of learning is probably outsized compared to the calendar figure. My second grader still can't read, yet she receives the equivalent of As and Bs on her report card. If we remain in the public schools, I imagine she will be passed on to the next grade, where she will fall even further behind.

The good news is that spread at my two children's schools has been almost nonexistent. At the private pre-school, children are encouraged but not required to wear masks. We have had one parent test positive with no positive cases among students or teachers since September. At the public elementary school, masks are required at all times with the exception of lunch. There are around 300 students (of ~800) attending in person, and since September, there have only been 6 cases.

Our not-very-strong teachers' union does not want to return until every adult and child is vaccinated. However, around 3% of students have a non-medical vaccine exemption in "normal" times. We will never get to a point where everyone is vaccinated. Teachers risk their teaching license and state retirement if they strike, so I imagine (like everyone else), teachers make the best decision for their own situation -- accept some level of risk and keep teaching or quit.

Thank you for sharing this. First, I hope your second grader can quickly catch up. Second, it makes me feel a little better about the thoughts I've been having about a teacher I know in the metro area. Her high school is doing remote learning now and will be until after Spring Break. She keeps pointing out that more of their students have made honor role with remote learning than when they were in person so there is no need to rush back to in person learning. My cynical mind figured the higher number of honor roll students was due to loosening of the grading curve and not that students are actually doing better overall. I know she is working extra hard this year since she is having to teach things she would usually teach as she is a choral instructor. I don't think the teachers are slacking off - just that overall, grading is more generous than it would be in a "normal" year.