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  1. #12561
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by richardjackson199 View Post
    The future of SARS-CoV-2:

    Scientists predict SARS-CoV-2 will come to resemble the common cold in the future:

    The New York Times (1/12, Mandavilli) reports SARS-CoV-2 “is here to stay, but once most adults are immune – following natural infection or vaccination – the virus will be no more of a threat than the common cold, according to a study published in the journal Science on Tuesday.” At some point in the future, “the study suggests the virus will be of concern only in children younger than 5, subjecting even them to mere sniffles – or no symptoms at all.

    https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abe6522

    "Our analysis of immunological and epidemiological data on endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs) shows that infection-blocking immunity wanes rapidly, but disease-reducing immunity is long-lived. Our model, incorporating these components of immunity, recapitulates both the current severity of CoV-2 and the benign nature of HCoVs, suggesting that once the endemic phase is reached and primary exposure is in childhood, CoV-2 may be no more virulent than the common cold."
    This makes sense, in a way, although none of the other coronaviruses that have been circulating for decades started life as a killer. They were all common cold viruses from the get-go. But there is definitely precedent for a virus to infect the lower respiratory tract causing all kinds of havoc but then, thereafter, being able to infect a person over and over again without causing very many symptoms. As luck would have it, likely the most prominent example is RSV, which can cause severe disease in babies when they get infected for the first time but thereafter is mild. Infection with RSV is not protective against future infection, but it generally does protect against future severe disease. The immune system can be thought of as somewhat compartmentalized, in that systemic protection afforded by IgG doesn't always provide infection of the upper airway. Reinfection, therefore, causes replication and symptoms in the upper airway (nose and nasopharynx) but the lower airway (lungs) is protected by circulating IgG.

    I really hope these guys are right. That would be absolutely the best possible scenario. Others have been envisioning a future in which it is more like flu, and might require repeated vaccination.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  2. #12562
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed

  3. #12563
    Speaking of repeated vaccinations, when will they know how long the immunity lasts from the vaccines? Will they know before next fall? If immunity does wane within a year or so, we will basically be vaccinating every day up until spring of 2022 I would assume.

  4. #12564
    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegas View Post
    Speaking of repeated vaccinations, when will they know how long the immunity lasts from the vaccines? Will they know before next fall? If immunity does wane within a year or so, we will basically be vaccinating every day up until spring of 2022 I would assume.
    If it wanes after a year every time, seems like we'll be constantly doing vaccinations for eternity. I hope that's not the case. It's like the old tale of " when do they paint the Golden Gate Bridge? Always. Because as soon as they finish the end, where they started needs to be painted again." I don't think that "tale" is true though...

  5. #12565
    Quote Originally Posted by aimo View Post
    Mom got hers today. At Duke. Very well organized.
    Got my Pfizer vaccine at Duke-Raleigh Hospital today. Semi-organized. Had 11:30 appt but when I showed up at 11:15 I was surprised to see ~40 people lined up outside building. Line moved ok but they checked us into a lobby waiting area too quickly, so about 30 of us (all masked) had to stand around in this lobby area waiting to get through 2nd check in spot. Then another ten minutes waiting to get assigned to a nurse station to get the shot. Shot was easy-peasy, then sent to next room with a 15 minute timer. When that went off waited another 10 minutes to checkout with appt time for 2nd dose (exactly 21 days later).

    The biggest mistake they made was checking people from outside into the lobby area too soon, letting us pile up, a jam-up that continued from station to station. All total I ended up spending about an hour in the building, most of the time with 20-30 people in the same room. We were usually 4 or 5 feet apart and everyone was masked, but still iffy.

    Fortunately I was able to schedule my 2nd shot at Duke Karsh center in Durham. I expect that clinic to be better run.

    Btw the shot was just a tiny prick (insert joke here) and I feel perfectly fine now, five hours later. Knock on wood.

  6. #12566
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegas View Post
    Speaking of repeated vaccinations, when will they know how long the immunity lasts from the vaccines? Will they know before next fall? If immunity does wane within a year or so, we will basically be vaccinating every day up until spring of 2022 I would assume.
    I suppose we will know when the original study subjects start showing no more immunity. Could be next month. Could be 12 months from now.

  7. #12567
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    Got my Pfizer vaccine at Duke-Raleigh Hospital today. Semi-organized. Had 11:30 appt but when I showed up at 11:15 I was surprised to see ~40 people lined up outside building. Line moved ok but they checked us into a lobby waiting area too quickly, so about 30 of us (all masked) had to stand around in this lobby area waiting to get through 2nd check in spot. Then another ten minutes waiting to get assigned to a nurse station to get the shot. Shot was easy-peasy, then sent to next room with a 15 minute timer. When that went off waited another 10 minutes to checkout with appt time for 2nd dose (exactly 21 days later).

    The biggest mistake they made was checking people from outside into the lobby area too soon, letting us pile up, a jam-up that continued from station to station. All total I ended up spending about an hour in the building, most of the time with 20-30 people in the same room. We were usually 4 or 5 feet apart and everyone was masked, but still iffy.

    Fortunately I was able to schedule my 2nd shot at Duke Karsh center in Durham. I expect that clinic to be better run.

    Btw the shot was just a tiny prick (insert joke here) and I feel perfectly fine now, five hours later. Knock on wood.
    Sounds like they either overbooked or too many people showed up early for their shots. At Karsh, we waited a few minutes outside so as to not crowd the vestibule. A guy then took our temps and gave us hand sanitizer. Then Mom was asked if she had an appt. and given the info handouts. She was shown to a distanced seat to wait until her name was called. Waited less than five minutes and she went to a table to be checked in. IF you are a Duke patient, this process is faster. Non-Duke patients have to be looked up in the state records which takes a bit longer. She was given her card here. Then we were taken to the vaccine area where Duke med student was waiting. She verified the info, made sure that Mom did, in fact, want this vaccine. Gave her the shot. Then we were shown to the waiting area, told to wait 15 minutes (huge monitors with the time to make sure). While we were waiting, someone checked on her to make sure she was feeling OK and that she understood everything. Plenty of opportunities to ask questions. Also, several nurses with portable computers rolling around the waiting area scheduling everyone for second doses while we waited. After 15 minutes, we went to the discharge table to check out. Continually reminded throughout that even after vaccination, masks, handwashing, and social distancing are still necessary. I would say that we walked up at about 9:15 and we walked out by 10am. Oh, and they were wiping down chairs after each use. She is feeling fine today and looking forward to the second one.

  8. #12568
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    I got back from my trip to Ft. Lauderdale late Wednesday and got the SO (significant other) mandated Covid test at CVS Thursday at noon. The SO abandoned ship on Wednesday before I got home so I wouldn’t infect her, just in case... She had gotten her first shot on Tuesday. I got my NEGATIVE result late yesterday! And on Friday I was able to register for my first shot on February 9, the same date she’ll get her second shot.
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    https://ecogreen.greentechaffiliate.com

  9. #12569
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Can report 90 y/o grandmother in SC assisted living facility is 1/2 through her vaccine schedule and every doctor/nurse we encountered this week in UPennMed system had both vaccines.

  10. #12570

    Brazil Approves Emergency Use of Sinovac

    If you think our vaccine deployment has been bad... Brazil is fairly desperate given they pre purchased no vaccines from Pfizer or Moderna, and approved the Chinese-developed Sinovac (as well as AstraZenecas) for emergency use. The vaccine is being produced by a local company. Seems like they're not necessarily extremely confident at how safe/effective it is, but with the rapid increase in cases recently, they determined the possible benefits outweigh the risks. Actually seems somewhat reasonable to me but clearly they're awaiting more data on them. They had a ceremonial first vaccine with it going out to front line workers in a couple days.

    "Health regulator Anvisa cleared the vaccines in a Sunday meeting, citing the recent significant increase in the number of Covid-19 cases in Brazil and the lack of alternatives for treatment of the disease.


    While government technicians said there’s still information needed on the shots, the benefits of vaccinations outweigh the risks, according to rapporteur Meiruze Freitas."

    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...covid-vaccines

    It's clear there has been quite a worldwide competition to secure vaccines.

  11. #12571
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Rent free in tarheels’ heads
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    It's clear there has been quite a worldwide competition to secure vaccines.
    I doubt it has been much of a competition.
    “Coach said no 3s.” - Zion on The Block

  12. #12572
    Mrs. PensDevil and I both work in K-12 education here in PA in different school districts. We fall in the state’s 1B phase for vaccinations, which has been coming “soon” for some time now. We both received word tonight that employees in some area districts will start receiving vaccinations as soon as tomorrow. 20 people in her district, none in mine. They are expecting more to open up from Tuesday on.

  13. #12573
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    I think I heard via the media that the Sinovac was somewhere around 50% protective, give or take, if you trust the trial results. And i guess if they were making up trial results whole cloth, they probably would've come up with better numbers than that....

  14. #12574
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, Va
    Ok, so I had Covid around Xmas/New Year's, thought I had a cold or sinus infection, very mild symptoms and I'm used to occasional sinus infections. Plenty of fatigue but thought it was from working (in a grocery store) during the holidays. Now all 3 of my adult kids have it, but are doing fine. Wife has not had it. Been a whirlwind last 3 weeks, for sure.

    Not sure where I caught it, could be work as we've had several associates positive over the last several months. We've all been masked up as we should be except Dec 27th, when we celebrated Xmas because one son was quarantined at his apartment because his roommate was positive. Hoping we're on the back side of all this. I think I might be able to get the vaccination in the coming weeks (my doc said I should still get it).

    Heard an infectious disease doc on the radio tonight talking about the vaccine, getting it, and where we move forward from here. Scary thing, he couldn't really foresee what's in the near future, except prolly wearing masks until at least September. He did express some concern on the distribution process as it currently exists. I know in Virginia we're not considered to be doing a very good job of getting the vaccine where it needs to go. Someone referenced we're 46th in the country-not good.

  15. #12575
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by duketaylor View Post
    I know in Virginia we're not considered to be doing a very good job of getting the vaccine where it needs to go. Someone referenced we're 46th in the country-not good.
    Hey, at least you aren't Georgia. We are 49th in the country in vaccine distribution according to the CDC. Officials say part of the problem is that GA is tracking vaccine distribution via a computer system that is 25 years old. To put that in perspective, we are using a computer system that thinks of this when you say, "mobile device."


    As we often say here in UGA, thank goodness for Alabama (they are 50th).
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #12576
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Found this pretty cool site that tracks vaccinations per 100 people in the population for a bunch of countries: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/d...A&region=World

    Israel is shaming the rest of the world... about 14x more people being vaccinated per day in Israel than in the US and Europe.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  17. #12577
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Must read this morning -- not for its depth but for its simplicity -- is the NYTimes Morning Briefing.

    Right now, public discussion of the vaccines is full of warnings about their limitations: They’re not 100 percent effective. Even vaccinated people may be able to spread the virus. And people shouldn’t change their behavior once they get their shots.

    These warnings have a basis in truth, just as it’s true that masks are imperfect. But the sum total of the warnings is misleading, as I heard from multiple doctors and epidemiologists last week.

    Here’s my best attempt at summarizing what we know:

    • The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines — the only two approved in the U.S. — are among the best vaccines ever created, with effectiveness rates of about 95 percent after two doses. That’s on par with the vaccines for chickenpox and measles. And a vaccine doesn’t even need to be so effective to reduce cases sharply and crush a pandemic.
    • If anything, the 95 percent number understates the effectiveness, because it counts anyone who came down with a mild case of Covid-19 as a failure. But turning Covid into a typical flu — as the vaccines evidently did for most of the remaining 5 percent — is actually a success. Of the 32,000 people who received the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine in a research trial, do you want to guess how many contracted a severe Covid case? One.
    • Although no rigorous study has yet analyzed whether vaccinated people can spread the virus, it would be surprising if they did. “If there is an example of a vaccine in widespread clinical use that has this selective effect — prevents disease but not infection — I can’t think of one!” Dr. Paul Sax of Harvard has written in The New England Journal of Medicine. (And, no, exclamation points are not common in medical journals.) On Twitter, Dr. Monica Gandhi of the University of California, San Francisco, argued: “Please be assured that YOU ARE SAFE after vaccine from what matters — disease and spreading.”
    • The risks for vaccinated people are still not zero, because almost nothing in the real world is zero risk. A tiny percentage of people may have allergic reactions. And I’ll be eager to see what the studies on post-vaccination spread eventually show. But the evidence so far suggests that the vaccines are akin to a cure.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  18. #12578
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Must read this morning -- not for its depth but for its simplicity -- is the NYTimes Morning Briefing.
    There is still that pinned and locked thread...

  19. #12579
    Join Date
    Mar 2017
    Location
    Sea Island, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Hey, at least you aren't Georgia. We are 49th in the country in vaccine distribution according to the CDC. Officials say part of the problem is that GA is tracking vaccine distribution via a computer system that is 25 years old. To put that in perspective, we are using a computer system that thinks of this when you say, "mobile device."


    As we often say here in UGA, thank goodness for Alabama (they are 50th).
    My experience in coastal Georgia is the opposite of what you might think based upon that description.

    Georgia announced that ages 65+ would be part of group 1a on Jan. 1. They started registration for that group on Jan. 7, which is when i called to schedule my vaccine, and I received my first shot on Jan. 13. So far very efficient! The health department where I received my shot was extremely well-organized. I was in and out with my card and next appointment within 20 minutes, and that included my 15 minutes of observation time. Everything was socially-distanced and I felt very safe. The only issue I had in the whole process was that it took me 45 minutes to get through on the phone to schedule my appointment, and that required a lot of redialing. They could/should have had a more “modern” phone system with a hold line. Also, I called the second they opened, when everyone called. People that waited until the afternoon got right through.

    They have filled all their current appointment slots, but they say it is a provider issue, not a supply issue. They have been actively looking for more providers to give the shot, and many have stepped up, so hopefully they will start scheduling again soon.

    Doctors and nurses in this area received the vaccine in December.

    Georgia also publishes a list of all those who have ordered vaccines, the quantity of each brand they ordered, and the number that has been allocated. In the first week of January there were over 1000 providers on that list. Today the list has at least doubled...there must be 2000-2500 providers on the list. By scanning the list, it seems that the largest orders back in early January were Pfizer orders...at that time the Moderna orders were all 100-500 dose orders, and were primarily going to smaller practices, rather than to hospitals or health departments. This made sense because of the different refrigeration requirements as well as the fact that Pfizer requires a minimum order of close to 1000 vaccines, whereas Moderna only requires 100. However, the current list shows a lot of orders for large quantities (thousands) of Moderna. Maybe the Moderna vaccine is more available now.

    The Georgia DPH CoVid website is actually quite informative (and I have looked at the websites of several other states without finding one that is more informative). Maybe our systems are old (given the phone system, I am sure you are correct), but my experience with the process itself was very smooth. And since I know so many people ages 65+ have already received their vaccine (or at least been scheduled), I have to wonder if that ranking of vaccine distribution by state is very current.

  20. #12580
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    There is still that pinned and locked thread...
    Good call... done!
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

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