PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[wavedukefan70s]

Schools up here will be interesting on Monday morning. Each kid will be asked if they had any multi household get togethers over the Thanksgiving break, and if they did, they have to quarantine for seven days.
I'm sure quite a few parents aren't paying close attention to this, they'll be surprised when junior comes home Monday morning...I expect a bit of turmoil.

Quite interesting .im betting they wont ask our football players that or any kids .considering we had a meeting friday night at the field with 100 other kids and probably 2k of fans.

Not to mention 8 through 12u were playing aswell .

Im not sure our district is in the position to ask anyone anything.
Considering we have sports related events that are larger.
I would guess they most likely would be setting themselves uo for failure.

[wavedukefan70s]

Also i take this virus seriously.but the sensationalism by our local news paper included is crazy.

For example we have 1800 cases compared to 1050 cases ect.but when you read the fine print you realize the number of tests vary greatly .1800 cases out of 14to15k tests.then 1000 put of 6 to 8 k tests.you test more you will have more .
I absolutely believe this effects the public.they get so tired of the shenanigans they just simply are like whatever.
I have gotten to that point at times.i stay vigilant anyway my family's safety tops my feelings.
Id love for there to be some sort of nationwide covid reporting etiquette.maybe we as a population can get on the same page mentally .

[Kdogg]

For example we have 1800 cases compared to 1050 cases ect.but when you read the fine print you realize the number of tests vary greatly .1800 cases out of 14to15k tests.then 1000 put of 6 to 8 k tests.you test more you will have.

Duke tests far more than UNC and NC State.
Duke has far less cases of COVID.

[wavedukefan70s]

Duke tests far more than UNC and NC State.
Duke has far less cases of COVID.

Thats a semi controlled environment .not general public.
Plus not knocking any college kids at any school .but i bet to wager Dukes average sat score is higher than the average at the other two schools .
I do not believe intelligent people for the most part skip precautions.
Hence with higher intelligent population you most likely will be a bit more rational on following guidelines.
Not to mention they double or slightly more than double Dukes enrollment.

Were you talking percentage wise testing numbers or actual numbers.
If actual numbers disreguard previous statement it woukd render it irrelevant.

All 3 being good universities with rubust medical facilities id expect all 3 testing numbers to be higher than
The average university.
Im not sure if logistics plays a part aswell.

[rsvman]

Also i take this virus seriously.but the sensationalism by our local news paper included is crazy.

For example we have 1800 cases compared to 1050 cases ect.but when you read the fine print you realize the number of tests vary greatly .1800 cases out of 14to15k tests.then 1000 put of 6 to 8 k tests.you test more you will have more .
I absolutely believe this effects the public.they get so tired of the shenanigans they just simply are like whatever.
I have gotten to that point at times.i stay vigilant anyway my family's safety tops my feelings.
Id love for there to be some sort of nationwide covid reporting etiquette.maybe we as a population can get on the same page mentally .

Percent positivity is also an important measure, to be sure. And I agree with you that at a certain point, people just start to turn the information completely off in their minds, which is worrisome given that I think it is going to get a lot worse but maybe a lot of people just won't care.

[sagegrouse]

Also i take this virus seriously.but the sensationalism by our local news paper included is crazy.

For example we have 1800 cases compared to 1050 cases ect.but when you read the fine print you realize the number of tests vary greatly .1800 cases out of 14to15k tests.then 1000 put of 6 to 8 k tests.you test more you will have more .
I absolutely believe this effects the public.they get so tired of the shenanigans they just simply are like whatever.
I have gotten to that point at times.i stay vigilant anyway my family's safety tops my feelings.
Id love for there to be some sort of nationwide covid reporting etiquette.maybe we as a population can get on the same page mentally .

Duke tests far more than UNC and NC State.
Duke has far less cases of COVID.

If your point, Green Wave Dukie, is that more testing leads to more confirmed cases of COVID, let my offer examples to the contrary:

Duke (since Aug 2)
Tests: 158,817
Positives: 152 (with 131 being cleared to return)

UNC (since July 1)
Tests: 7,052
Positives: 725 (which greatly understates the number of cases since, these are only "tested positives" and UNC has 30,000 students)

NC State (since March 13)
Tests: 26,052
Positives: 752 (total cases, including self-reported is 1,386)

Lessons: Duke tests multiple times per week and only one percent of the students has tested positive.

At UNC testing appears to be voluntary -- and covers only one-fourth of the student body -- and the incidence of infections is far higher than Duke in number and percent.

At State, there is more testing than UNC but fewer tests than the 34,000 students and way behind Duke. And ten times as many cases as Duke (5x on a per capita basis).

[wavedukefan70s]

If your point, Green Wave Dukie, is that more testing leads to more confirmed cases of COVID, let my offer examples to the contrary:

Duke (since Aug 2)
Tests: 158,817
Positives: 152 (with 131 being cleared to return)

UNC (since July 1)
Tests: 7,052
Positives: 725 (which greatly understates the number of cases since, these are only "tested positives" and UNC has 30,000 students)

NC State (since March 13)
Tests: 26,052
Positives: 752 (total cases, including self-reported is 1,386)

Lessons: Duke tests multiple times per week and only one percent of the students has tested positive.

At UNC testing appears to be voluntary -- and covers only one-fourth of the student body -- and the incidence of infections is far higher than Duke in number and percent.

At State, there is more testing than UNC but fewer tests than the 34,000 students and way behind Duke. And ten times as many cases as Duke (5x on a per capita basis).

Fair enough .it was seeming that way for quite a while in our state totals.
We plan to start testing at public school from what i have been told.

Im not sure people really want to see
Those numbers.
But i am hoping for the best.

[freshmanjs]

If your point, Green Wave Dukie, is that more testing leads to more confirmed cases of COVID, let my offer examples to the contrary:

Duke (since Aug 2)
Tests: 158,817
Positives: 152 (with 131 being cleared to return)

UNC (since July 1)
Tests: 7,052
Positives: 725 (which greatly understates the number of cases since, these are only "tested positives" and UNC has 30,000 students)

NC State (since March 13)
Tests: 26,052
Positives: 752 (total cases, including self-reported is 1,386)

Lessons: Duke tests multiple times per week and only one percent of the students has tested positive.

At UNC testing appears to be voluntary -- and covers only one-fourth of the student body -- and the incidence of infections is far higher than Duke in number and percent.

At State, there is more testing than UNC but fewer tests than the 34,000 students and way behind Duke. And ten times as many cases as Duke (5x on a per capita basis).

152 out of 158,817 is not 1%.

[snowdenscold]

152 out of 158,817 is not 1%.

158,817 is the total number of tests, not the total number of unique students tested (which I couldn't find those numbers for).

Sage said 1% of students (so presumably ~15,000?), not tests.

[sagegrouse]

152 out of 158,817 is not 1%.

Excuse me. Let me clarify: 152 students with positive tests out of 15,632 total enrolled students -- 1%

[CDu]

If your point, Green Wave Dukie, is that more testing leads to more confirmed cases of COVID, let my offer examples to the contrary:

Duke (since Aug 2)
Tests: 158,817
Positives: 152 (with 131 being cleared to return)

UNC (since July 1)
Tests: 7,052
Positives: 725 (which greatly understates the number of cases since, these are only "tested positives" and UNC has 30,000 students)

NC State (since March 13)
Tests: 26,052
Positives: 752 (total cases, including self-reported is 1,386)

Lessons: Duke tests multiple times per week and only one percent of the students has tested positive.

At UNC testing appears to be voluntary -- and covers only one-fourth of the student body -- and the incidence of infections is far higher than Duke in number and percent.

At State, there is more testing than UNC but fewer tests than the 34,000 students and way behind Duke. And ten times as many cases as Duke (5x on a per capita basis).

There is a point at which the "more tests means more positives" is true. If you aren't testing enough relative to the disease prevalence, then more tests will lead to more positives. If you ARE testing enough (like Duke appears to be doing), more tests will lead to fewer positives, as you are able to identify and isolate the population. The key here is that you have to be testing and tracing to a degree so as to be out in front of the disease.

From a state/country-level perspective, we aren't out in front of the disease, nor are we anywhere close to there. There are states with like a 40% positivity rate (40% of current tests coming back positive). In those states, more tests will mean more cases confirmed. At the US level as a whole, we almost certainly would have had more cases had we had more tests back in March and April.

None of this is to say that we shouldn't be appalled by the situation here. It's really bad, and has been handled really poorly. But technically speaking, at the state and US level it is true that more testing means more confirmed cases. Not that that means much.

[dudog84]

There is a point at which the "more tests means more positives" is true. If you aren't testing enough relative to the disease prevalence, then more tests will lead to more positives. If you ARE testing enough (like Duke appears to be doing), more tests will lead to fewer positives, as you are able to identify and isolate the population. The key here is that you have to be testing and tracing to a degree so as to be out in front of the disease.

From a state/country-level perspective, we aren't out in front of the disease, nor are we anywhere close to there. There are states with like a 40% positivity rate (40% of current tests coming back positive). In those states, more tests will mean more cases confirmed. At the US level as a whole, we almost certainly would have had more cases had we had more tests back in March and April.

None of this is to say that we shouldn't be appalled by the situation here. It's really bad, and has been handled really poorly. But technically speaking, at the state and US level it is true that more testing means more confirmed cases. Not that that means much.

Yeah, testing without contact tracing (and action) is pretty much "Oh, that's interesting. Another data point."

But America get to be #1!

[sagegrouse]

There is a point at which the "more tests means more positives" is true. If you aren't testing enough relative to the disease prevalence, then more tests will lead to more positives. If you ARE testing enough (like Duke appears to be doing), more tests will lead to fewer positives, as you are able to identify and isolate the population. The key here is that you have to be testing and tracing to a degree so as to be out in front of the disease.

From a state/country-level perspective, we aren't out in front of the disease, nor are we anywhere close to there. There are states with like a 40% positivity rate (40% of current tests coming back positive). In those states, more tests will mean more cases confirmed. At the US level as a whole, we almost certainly would have had more cases had we had more tests back in March and April.

None of this is to say that we shouldn't be appalled by the situation here. It's really bad, and has been handled really poorly. But technically speaking, at the state and US level it is true that more testing means more confirmed cases. Not that that means much.

Let me state it differently. If you test and just record the results, then more testing leads to more cases. If you test, quarantine the positives, trace their contacts, and quarantine those who had a significant level of contact, then the number of cases should decline. And then -- future tests should lead to fewer positives.

BUT, BUT -- and this is one of CDu's main points -- the positive effect are likely only if you are testing a large proportion of the population. In Duke's case, everyone is being tested at least weekly. If, on the other hand, you are testing only five percent of the population, then you are not protecting the bulk of the population from exposure and infection.

Kindly,
Sage Grouse
'Good gracious, I like writing all this stuff hearkening back to my days as a social scientist. Unhappily, I still can't explain it where any else can understand what I'm talking about'

[MChambers]

Moderna applied for an EUA today, and the limited data it put in a press release is very promising. Good summary here: https://www.vox.com/2020/11/30/21726...accine-results

[CDu]

Let me state it differently. If you test and just record the results, then more testing leads to more cases. If you test, quarantine the positives, trace their contacts, and quarantine those who had a significant level of contact, then the number of cases should decline. And then -- future tests should lead to fewer positives.

BUT, BUT -- and this is one of CDu's main points -- the positive effect are likely only if you are testing a large proportion of the population. In Duke's case, everyone is being tested at least weekly. If, on the other hand, you are testing only five percent of the population, then you are not protecting the bulk of the population from exposure and infection.

Yes, your post summarizes it quite nicely.

In the US, it's true that we have more cases in part because we test more than most of the European countries. That doesn't explain it all, as there are plenty of European countries whose test positivity rates are lower than ours. For example, Denmark and the UK have tested more than us per capita yet still have lower case rates per capita. A number of other countries have tested less but also have a lower positivity rate. So presumably a higher test rate in those countries would close the gap some, but not completely (and in some cases it wouldn't be close). We're pretty comparable to Italy and Spain when you factor in test positivity rate. But we're still doing quite poorly. And it is important to point out that we had the evidence from Italy as a guide to begin with before our outbreak, so doing as poorly as them isn't exactly a positive.

And then there is the other end of the spectrum, which is what sage is talking about. Places like Hong Kong and Singapore have tested and traced a lot better from the beginning, and as such they've contained the disease and prevented it from spiking. They are more like Duke in that they tested like crazy and have prevented the disease from taking hold.

[sagegrouse]

And then there is the other end of the spectrum, which is what sage is talking about. Places like Hong Kong and Singapore have tested and traced a lot better from the beginning, and as such they've contained the disease and prevented it from spiking. They are more like Duke in that they tested like crazy and have prevented the disease from taking hold.

Hong King and Singapore -- only one can be the "Duke of the Far East."

[jimsumner]

North Carolina's positive rate at 9.5 percent.

Yikes.

I might just go full cocoon until spring or a vaccine. Or both.

https://abc11.com/covid-testing-wake...-test/8377495/

[jv001]

North Carolina's positive rate at 9.5 percent.

Yikes.

I might just go full cocoon until spring or a vaccine. Or both.

https://abc11.com/covid-testing-wake...-test/8377495/

I've been thinking about the cocoon mode myself.

GoDuke!

[Skydog]

North Carolina's positive rate at 9.5 percent.

Yikes.

I might just go full cocoon until spring or a vaccine. Or both.

https://abc11.com/covid-testing-wake...-test/8377495/

And NC hospitalizations have almost doubled (from ~800-1200 for months on end to ~2000 and rising now). Since hospitalizations are prob 10-14 days behind infections and infections have increased rapidly in the last couple weeks the load on medical care is going to be a real strain in the next couple of weeks. AND then the spread due to T'giving travel and congregation will kick in on top of that. It seems inevitable that it is going to get really, really ugly in December - much worse than we've seen up to now.
The good news is that all of us who get through this winter should be in pretty good shape once these vaccines hit. Moderna had a 0 serious Covid covid cases in their n=15,000 treatment group. That is remarkable!

[accfanfrom1970]

An assisted living facility here in VA (Henrico) had their first case November 5th. 25 days later, 69 patients and 17 staff infected.