PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[johnb]

Interesting new study from Denmark about the value of wearing a mask:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...d-of-covid-19-

Also, another study about the risk of catching Covid at the grocery store (and this worries me the MOST!)

https://www.the-sun.com/news/1826530...e-catch-covid/

I don’t think I’d worry about either...

The first study was semi randomized. Half the group was told to wear masks and the 2nd group was presumably told to continue business as usual. If the danish business-as-usual included widespread mask wearing (which is what I’ve heard about Scandinavia—fewer mandates, but widespread observance, though earlier on, there was little acceptance of masks), then there shouldn’t be much difference between these 2 groups. I use the word “presumably” because I didn’t read the actual research paper but find it hard to believe they’d require people to go maskless during a pandemic. And with all that, the difference of 22% didn’t even reach statistical significance. Frankly, I’m surprised it got published, especially since its conclusions are inflammatory and misleading.

The 2nd study is equally problematic. Grocery store attendance is common before infection, and it’s also common before everything else. What else does everyone tend to do these days?

[johnb]

Anthony doesn't want to get fired I suspect. Bu he should expect a phone call no later than January 20.

Is the incoming team even allowed to reach out to current members of the team? Fauci’s a government employee, but he’s NIH not DJT. I’m assuming he gets on the next committee as well.

[johnb]

I don’t think I’d worry about either...

The first study was semi randomized. Half the group was told to wear masks and the 2nd group was presumably told to continue business as usual. If the danish business-as-usual included widespread mask wearing (which is what I’ve heard about Scandinavia—fewer mandates, but widespread observance, though earlier on, there was little acceptance of masks), then there shouldn’t be much difference between these 2 groups. I use the word “presumably” because I didn’t read the actual research paper but find it hard to believe they’d require people to go maskless during a pandemic. And with all that, the difference of 22% didn’t even reach statistical significance. Frankly, I’m surprised it got published, especially since its conclusions are inflammatory and misleading.

The 2nd study is equally problematic. Grocery store attendance is common before infection, and it’s also common before everything else. What else does everyone tend to do these days?

Whoops... covered already.

[YmoBeThere]

Back over the 2K daily death toll today, and probably going up further from here based on the increase in cases over the prior few weeks.

192,186, up 18% over last Thursday. A similar growth rate would put us in the 220,000 range today.

[Nrrrrvous]

Quick, Jason... before someone else does it.


Land shark!!

Or... land shark...
Attachment 11911

What does this say about me? I went immediately to -

ci-landshark-lager-5ef3d19243951e8b.jpg

Probably means I spend too much time over at Ymm, Beer...

[CDu]

192,186, up 18% over last Thursday. A similar growth rate would put us in the 220,000 range today.

Yep, I think we're now approaching (if we haven't reached already) the true infection high for the nation. We're clearly in the confirmed case record era, but I suspect that the degree of underidentification back in March/April was such that we had similar true case counts back then, just that most were not identified. But I fear we're headed towards new all-time highs in daily deaths very soon (maybe as early as next week).

Really desperately awaiting the arrival of these vaccines, although it sounds like it may not happen until we're most of the way through the peak season unfortunately.

Disappointingly, it doesn't seem as though we've seen much success on the treatment front. I would have expected that to potentially outpace the vaccine development, but clearly that doesn't seem to be the case.

[CameronDuke]

Yep, I think we're now approaching (if we haven't reached already) the true infection high for the nation. We're clearly in the confirmed case record era, but I suspect that the degree of underidentification back in March/April was such that we had similar true case counts back then, just that most were not identified. But I fear we're headed towards new all-time highs in daily deaths very soon (maybe as early as next week).

Really desperately awaiting the arrival of these vaccines, although it sounds like it may not happen until we're most of the way through the peak season unfortunately.

Disappointingly, it doesn't seem as though we've seen much success on the treatment front. I would have expected that to potentially outpace the vaccine development, but clearly that doesn't seem to be the case.

I was thinking treatment would be a lot better by now, too. It has been about 8 months or so. Treatment likely has gotten a bit better but still so many people are dying. At the rate that is occurring right now, it is not too far fetched to project deaths in the USA to approach 300,000 by the end of the year.

[budwom]

Yep, I think we're now approaching (if we haven't reached already) the true infection high for the nation. We're clearly in the confirmed case record era, but I suspect that the degree of underidentification back in March/April was such that we had similar true case counts back then, just that most were not identified. But I fear we're headed towards new all-time highs in daily deaths very soon (maybe as early as next week).

Really desperately awaiting the arrival of these vaccines, although it sounds like it may not happen until we're most of the way through the peak season unfortunately.

Disappointingly, it doesn't seem as though we've seen much success on the treatment front. I would have expected that to potentially outpace the vaccine development, but clearly that doesn't seem to be the case.

I think I saw a Fauci quote/estimate where he thinks most people can get dose one between April and July...yeah, that's a long way away...(some will hopefully get the vaccine much earlier)

[CDu]

I think I saw a Fauci quote/estimate where he thinks most people can get dose one between April and July...yeah, that's a long way away...(some will hopefully get the vaccine much earlier)

Yep, based on the math I was doing, we won't have enough doses ready to vaccinate anyone but the essential workers and highest-risk individuals this winter. And probably not even all of those folks. Hopefully by spring the Moderna group and a few others will have been able to ramp up enough to meet demand in the US. But it looks very unlikely that winter will be spared by the vaccine.

[MChambers]

Yep, I think we're now approaching (if we haven't reached already) the true infection high for the nation. We're clearly in the confirmed case record era, but I suspect that the degree of underidentification back in March/April was such that we had similar true case counts back then, just that most were not identified. But I fear we're headed towards new all-time highs in daily deaths very soon (maybe as early as next week).

Really desperately awaiting the arrival of these vaccines, although it sounds like it may not happen until we're most of the way through the peak season unfortunately.

Disappointingly, it doesn't seem as though we've seen much success on the treatment front. I would have expected that to potentially outpace the vaccine development, but clearly that doesn't seem to be the case.

On the death toll, that's what the IMHE model says -- 2500 deaths a day by January and 471,000 total by March 1. Truly horrible.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/healt...day/index.html

[sagegrouse]

On the death toll, that's what the IMHE model says -- 2500 deaths a day by January and 471,000 total by March 1. Truly horrible.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/healt...day/index.html

Eyeballing the daily reports from Worldometers, we could reach 2,500 deaths per day by next week. Ugh!

[CameronDuke]

Eyeballing the daily reports from Worldometers, we could reach 2,500 deaths per day by next week. Ugh!

I find these numbers astonishing. I was asking my sister yesterday how she thought they’re getting that high. She mentioned many could be essential workers catching the virus. Surely, the vast majority of these folks getting sick aren’t blindly ignoring the rules to wear masks, right? It simply bends my mind that this many people are still catching the virus. Are they just not wearing masks, heeding medical advice, socially distancing, etc.? If that were the case, it seems I have severely overestimated people’s common sense, rule following capabilities, and mental capacity. I am not trying to over simplify the issue or be rude. It literally puts my mind in a pretzel how large the numbers are getting. Maybe some people don’t watch the news? Or they underestimate this virus? Even so, simply wearing a mask or staying home isn’t hard to do. I understand some essential workers still have to be around others and could potentially be exposed. But that can’t be the majority of these cases, can it?

[CDu]

I was thinking treatment would be a lot better by now, too. It has been about 8 months or so. Treatment likely has gotten a bit better but still so many people are dying. At the rate that is occurring right now, it is not too far fetched to project deaths in the USA to approach 300,000 by the end of the year.

Unfortunately I would suggest that 300,000+ deaths by Dec 31 is the expectation at this point, not just a possibility. Several models have been projecting that for a few months now, and the pace we are on with the trajectory we are on suggests we will get there.

[Native]

From CBNC:

A team of CRISPR scientists at the New York Genome Center, New York University and Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai say they have identified the genes that can protect human cells against Covid-19... The discovery comes after an eight-month screen of all 20,000 genes in the human genome led by Dr. Neville Sanjana at the New York Genome Center. Leading virologist at Mount Sinai, Dr. Benjamin tenOever, developed a series of human lung cell models for the coronavirus screening to better understand immune responses to the disease and co-authored the study.

Their study, published online last month by Cell, will appear in the scientific peer-reviewed journal’s Jan. 7 print issue.

The goal was two-fold: to identify the genes that make human cells more resistant to SARS-CoV-2 virus; and test existing drugs on the market that may help stop the spread of the disease.

[budwom]

On the death toll, that's what the IMHE model says -- 2500 deaths a day by January and 471,000 total by March 1. Truly horrible.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/healt...day/index.html

If this proves to be remotely true (and I suspect it will) I continue to wonder how the NCAA can entertain the notion of bringing in sixty-some teams to play a tournament. Seems to be truly reckless, "bubble" or no bubble.

[Bluedog]

If this proves to be remotely true (and I suspect it will) I continue to wonder how the NCAA can entertain the notion of bringing in sixty-some teams to play a tournament. Seems to be truly reckless, "bubble" or no bubble.

How can we be playing football games with >100 of people per team (when you count players, coaches, staff etc.)? Somehow, they've been doing it...(with varying levels of success.) Just point this out to suggest that the NCAA is not necessarily at odds with other decision-making bodies on this point. It's also a wait and see thing, you might as well plan for it and hope for the best. I do think it's a possibility that the season will be delayed at the NCAA would look to move the tournament to something like May, which is what Coach K has proposed. The NCAA needs the tournament this to remain financially viable; they lost too much money from the cancellation last year.

[budwom]

How can we be playing football games with >100 of people per team (when you count players, coaches, staff etc.)? Somehow, they've been doing it...(with varying levels of success.) Just point this out to suggest that the NCAA is not necessarily at odds with other decision-making bodies on this point. It's also a wait and see thing, you might as well plan for it and hope for the best. I do think it's a possibility that the season will be delayed at the NCAA would look to move the tournament to something like May, which is what Coach K has proposed. The NCAA needs the tournament this to remain financially viable; they lost too much money from the cancellation last year.

Sure, it's all money driven. Regarding football, games are being cancelled in abundance NOW, and we haven't even neared the peak of infections and deaths that are projected. So yes, they're doing it, but not particularly well as anyone planning on watching the Duke-Wake game can see.

[PackMan97]

I find these numbers astonishing. I was asking my sister yesterday how she thought they’re getting that high. She mentioned many could be essential workers catching the virus. Surely, the vast majority of these folks getting sick aren’t blindly ignoring the rules to wear masks, right? It simply bends my mind that this many people are still catching the virus. Are they just not wearing masks, heeding medical advice, socially distancing, etc.? If that were the case, it seems I have severely overestimated people’s common sense, rule following capabilities, and mental capacity. I am not trying to over simplify the issue or be rude. It literally puts my mind in a pretzel how large the numbers are getting. Maybe some people don’t watch the news? Or they underestimate this virus? Even so, simply wearing a mask or staying home isn’t hard to do. I understand some essential workers still have to be around others and could potentially be exposed. But that can’t be the majority of these cases, can it?

I think your observation is a continuing example of how we are becoming groups of less diverse communities. We simply don't know enough people that think, act and live differently than we do. Folks think they are diverse, but not really.

[CDu]

I think your observation is a continuing example of how we are becoming groups of less diverse communities. We simply don't know enough people that think, act and live differently than we do. Folks think they are diverse, but not really.

Yeah, the country as a whole is very diverse. People's personal networks are generally less so. In many cases, MUCH less so.

[sagegrouse]

Sure, it's all money driven. Regarding football, games are being cancelled in abundance NOW, and we haven't even neared the peak of infections and deaths that are projected. So yes, they're doing it, but not particularly well as anyone planning on watching the Duke-Wake game can see.

BudWom -- This is too cynical even for me, Cy the Cynic. Everybody's tested -- the NCAA tournament is in a bubble -- certain hotels, certain athletic venues. No fans. Charter planes and buses.

Yep, some teams will fall by the COVID wayside (we should have a vote when the field is announced), but I think they should play the tournament.

Also, every player will have been vaccinated.

Also, also: the NCAA can always cancel the tournament, but it can't decide at the last minute to hold the tournament -- or keep the original 14 venues on tippy-toe until March about whether it would take place. The only city now with uncertainty is IndianaPOLIS -- and that's where the NCAA is located. (I like our chances in a city with 'polis.')

Kindly,
Sage Grouse
'By the way, I like our association with "POLIS" so much -- two championships in Minneapolis and three in Indianapolis -- that I voted for Jared POLIS for Governor in Colorado -- and he won too!'