PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[rsvman]

The answer is probably weather related. It had already turned cold in those states forcing people inside. Until just last few days we have been able to socialize outside. Unfortunately I suspect we are next. In fact it already appears to be happening where I live.

Could be, certainly, but there may be other factors at work. There are an unusually high number of COVID-deniers in some of the western states listed, especially Utah and Idaho. I don't have first-hand knowledge, but I'd guess that there is a similar percentage in Montana and probably in Wyoming. Many people who believe that masks are a violation of their constitutional rights, etc.

So I think it may be a combination of cold weather and rampant disregard for public health measures.

[YmoBeThere]

So I think it may be a combination of cold weather and rampant disregard for public health measures.

Some people insist on learning lessons the hard way...

[niveklaen]

Some people insist on learning lessons the hard way...

only way to discover wisdom...

[-jk]

The answer is probably weather related. It had already turned cold in those states forcing people inside. Until just last few days we have been able to socialize outside. Unfortunately I suspect we are next. In fact it already appears to be happening where I live.

Could be, certainly, but there may be other factors at work. There are an unusually high number of COVID-deniers in some of the western states listed, especially Utah and Idaho. I don't have first-hand knowledge, but I'd guess that there is a similar percentage in Montana and probably in Wyoming. Many people who believe that masks are a violation of their constitutional rights, etc.

So I think it may be a combination of cold weather and rampant disregard for public health measures.

I suspect there's no single answer, but I do think inside v outside makes a huge difference. The sunbelt states spiked during the hottest part of the summer when everyone was inside with AC blasting. Now everyone in colder climates are going inside with the heat blasting.

And everyone is about to gather around holiday tables.

My patio heater is due to arrive in the next few days!

-jk

[TruBlu]

The better half and I have canceled plans to go to Indy for Thanksgiving with our granddaughters and their families, for their health and ours. The better half reluctantly agreed with me, and I expect to pay dearly during the Thanksgiving weekend. Christmas is also very much in doubt.

It just isn’t worth the risk of putting future get-togethers at risk for one (or two) get-togethers this year. Come on vaccine!!!

[JasonEvans]

While the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines have been racing ahead with great fanfare, the more traditional vaccine being developed by AstraZenica and Oxford University is also plowing ahead, just about a month behind the mRNA ones. Well, Oxford reported their Phase 2 results today, fully peer reviewed (not just a news release by the company) and the results are quite encouraging as well: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/19/oxfo...lts-study.html

The Oxford vaccine candidate was found to cause few side effects and triggered immune responses in parts of the immune system in all age groups and at low and standard doses.

The preliminary results showed that the vaccine — ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 — prompted what’s known as a “T-cell response” within 14 days of the first dose and an antibody response within 28 days of the booster dose. Scientists expect T-cell responses to play a role in long-term immunity against the virus.

We will, of course, learn a lot lot lot more (including how effective it is) in phase 3 testing, which has been going on for a couple months already. The folks working on this vaccnie say they expect to report their Phase 3 results in about a month: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...d-by-christmas

Dr Andrew Pollard, an expert in pediatric infection and immunity at Oxford, said the research was slowed by low infection rates over the summer, but the Phase 3 trials are now accumulating the data needed to report results as a renewed surge of the pandemic hits countries around the world.

Two other drugmakers, Pfizer and Moderna, this week reported preliminary results from late-stage trials showing that their COVID-19 vaccines were almost 95 percent effective.

Pollard said there is no competition between the various research teams because several vaccines would be needed to bring the global pandemic under control and allow life to return to normal.

[budwom]

The folks at Johnson and Johnson also feel very good about their vaccine, and it doesn't require refrigeration, which is no small thing. The more, the merrier.

[JasonEvans]

The folks at Johnson and Johnson also feel very good about their vaccine, and it doesn't require refrigeration, which is no small thing. The more, the merrier.

You want to watch the NCAA tourney in person? Give me four 90% effective vaccines available by January and it may not be a total pipe dream.

[CameronDuke]

My Thanksgiving that I am hosting with my wife just went from 9 guests to 3. My parents (in their 60s), sister, her husband, and their two young children with be attending. Seems to be the appropriate thing to do this year. Christmas may be hard to get together for, too.

I am really hoping people think hard about their thanksgiving get togethers. As hard as it was to pretty much cancel any family coming, I believe it is needed right now.

[OldPhiKap]

The first Coronavirus Task Force briefing in a month or two (IIRC) will be at 4 today. Odds on whether Pence or even the outgoing President contradicts the CDC, and says that Thanksgiving is not a worry?

[MartyClark]

My Thanksgiving that I am hosting with my wife just went from 9 guests to 3. My parents (in their 60s), sister, her husband, and their two young children with be attending. Seems to be the appropriate thing to do this year. Christmas may be hard to get together for, too.

I am really hoping people think hard about their thanksgiving get togethers. As hard as it was to pretty much cancel any family coming, I believe it is needed right now.

Yeah, us too. Our three adult kids all live in different states. We usually have a big crew of the kids, their significant others, friend and relatives. We cancelled this year. Just me and my wonderful wife - we will be quite lonely but its the only logical choice to make.

[jacone21]

Yeah, us too. Our three adult kids all live in different states. We usually have a big crew of the kids, their significant others, friend and relatives. We cancelled this year. Just me and my wonderful wife - we will be quite lonely but its the only logical choice to make.

Same here. My wife and I usually host immediate family, parents, siblings and such. This year it'll just be us, although I'm going to do a drive by to deliver a meal for my mother. I tried to get Mom to isolate long enough for us to get together, but she's just unwilling to do that. She would definitely eat the first marshmallow.

[tbyers11]

Cross-posting this as reply to Bluedog from 2020 election thread because it seems more appropriate over here

With that in mind, would you suggest that the other vaccines currently being evaluated NOT using the mRNA approach should have more predictable effective percentages given those technologies have been utilized in the past with successful vaccines (at least, I believe they have)? What would those predicted effectiveness percentages be - perhaps like the flu which is IIRC 40-60% effective. Maybe there are other vaccine technologies currently in trials for COVID that are very effective based on historical precedence for other diseases - certainly, chicken pox, polio, etc. are effective vaccines.

No one really knows if efficacy for other non-mRNA format COVID vaccines will be much lower or not. There are other mRNA approaches in the pipeline but the next ones likely to complete PH3 are viral vector or protein-based. It is likely that they won't be 95% because that is super high and it is possible that mRNA platform may lead to higher efficacy.

However, because nearly all approaches are using the same S (spike) protein) it bodes well that the efficacy from protein and viral vector will be strong as well. My educated guess is that that the "source" molecule for the vaccine (S protein) will be a slightly bigger factor in overall efficacy than the platform used to make the vaccine. I think that the S protein gives all vaccines a strong floor but that the specific format could lead to a higher ceiling.

Because of this I would guess that other approaches would be more like 70-80% (rather than 40-60 seen with flu). But it is too early to know for sure because we don't have enough data yet to know "why" the mRNA vaccines were so effective. That will take a few months. Other formats could also achieve 90% efficacy or they could be 50%.

[niveklaen]

Cross-posting this as reply to Bluedog from 2020 election thread because it seems more appropriate over here



No one really knows if efficacy for other non-mRNA format COVID vaccines will be much lower or not. There are other mRNA approaches in the pipeline but the next ones likely to complete PH3 are viral vector or protein-based. It is likely that they won't be 95% because that is super high and it is possible that mRNA platform may lead to higher efficacy.

However, because nearly all approaches are using the same S (spike) protein) it bodes well that the efficacy from protein and viral vector will be strong as well. My educated guess is that that the "source" molecule for the vaccine (S protein) will be a slightly bigger factor in overall efficacy than the platform used to make the vaccine. I think that the S protein gives all vaccines a strong floor but that the specific format could lead to a higher ceiling.

Because of this I would guess that other approaches would be more like 70-80% (rather than 40-60 seen with flu). But it is too early to know for sure because we don't have enough data yet to know "why" the mRNA vaccines were so effective. That will take a few months. Other formats could also achieve 90% efficacy or they could be 50%.

It seems (to my admittedly lay eye - not a DR) that having all the vaccines attack the same spike is a recipe for a single mutation rendering them all useless. Wouldn't we better with 3 vaccines attacking different parts of the virus than 10 all attacking the same part?

[duke79]

Interesting new study from Denmark about the value of wearing a mask:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...d-of-covid-19-

Also, another study about the risk of catching Covid at the grocery store (and this worries me the MOST!)

https://www.the-sun.com/news/1826530...e-catch-covid/

[budwom]

You want to watch the NCAA tourney in person? Give me four 90% effective vaccines available by January and it may not be a total pipe dream.

I'm not creating aggressive expectations for myself...I still hope I can be vaccinated by July 1, with the chance that could be moved up to May...

Frankly, I feel better about how the vaccine development is going than I do about a March tournament in the Hoosier state. I know I've been a broken record on this, but ramping up production is going to be a challenge.

[CDu]

I'm not creating aggressive expectations for myself...I still hope I can be vaccinated by July 1, with the chance that could be moved up to May...

Frankly, I feel better about how the vaccine development is going than I do about a March tournament in the Hoosier state. I know I've been a broken record on this, but ramping up production is going to be a challenge.

Yeah, we MIGHT have enough vaccines available in the US by Q2 2021. But I'm not at all confident that we'll be there in time for early March. We almost certainly aren't going to have 4 vaccines on the market in January, and we'd need to have them available to the public by February to have a hope for a March tourney (because it takes two doses).

Pfizer might start rolling out doses in December, but those would only be for select groups (medical personnel, maybe the elderly). Moderna will likely not start rolling out doses until January, but they are new to the game and those doses will again be limited at first to specific risk groups. In the best case, maybe 30 million people in the US will get vaccinated by the end of January. And the others simply aren't likely to get approved in time to be available very early in 2021.

Hopefully all these vaccines get approved, but I wouldn't expect the general public to have access to a COVID vaccine until Q2 at the earliest. So unless they push back the date of the tournament, I don't think that it's realistic to think we'll be able to attend the tournament this Spring.

[duke79]

I'm not creating aggressive expectations for myself...I still hope I can be vaccinated by July 1, with the chance that could be moved up to May...

Frankly, I feel better about how the vaccine development is going than I do about a March tournament in the Hoosier state. I know I've been a broken record on this, but ramping up production is going to be a challenge.

I hope I'm wrong but I'm (somewhat) pessimistic about the speed of production AND (more importantly) the distribution and actually getting people vaccinated. I would guess maybe the the 4th quarter of 2021 (or longer) before everyone who wants to be vaccinated WILL be vaccinated.

[budwom]

Yeah, we MIGHT have enough vaccines available in the US by Q2 2021. But I'm not at all confident that we'll be there in time for early March.

Pfizer might start rolling out doses in December, but those would only be for select groups (medical personnel, maybe the elderly). Moderna might start rolling out doses in January, but they are new to the game. And the others simply aren't likely to get approved in time.

Hopefully all these vaccines get approved, but I wouldn't expect the general public to have access to a COVID vaccine until Q2 at the earliest. So unless they push back the date of the tournament, I don't think that it's realistic to think we'll be able to attend the tournament this Spring.

yes, even if most of the trials go extremely well, production in 2021 isn't going to be even, i.e. a company which makes 500 million units almost certainly won't be making 40+ million/month all year, production is likely to be significantly higher in the second half of the year than the first.

[niveklaen]

is there risk that some of the early run will go to other countries? Just because a company can pump out 40mil doses does not mean that 40mil doses are available for use in the US...