PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[sagegrouse]

CDC says Duke is the example universities should follow:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6946e1.htm


CDC says anonymous NC university (thought to be UNC) not a good example:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6939e3.htm

The one cluster involved an asymptomatic index patient, who infected eight others.

Recently, a COVID-19 cluster involving multiple students was identified in off-campus housing. Pooled testing identified the asymptomatic index patient. After contact tracing identified students with potential exposure, eight students linked to the index patient received positive test results. Pooled testing and contact tracing rapidly isolated the cluster, preventing further transmission. In addition, rapid identification of cases among contacts in off-campus locations might have prevented community outbreaks.

[rsvman]

Teachers are essential workers now... because it is essential the parents get babysitting so they can go to work... so my fingers are crossed I’ll be higher on the list for the vaccine than usual.

Now, if you have the vaccine, that also means you generally cannot CARRY it internally, right?

I'm not sure I understand your last question, but both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are mRNA vaccines. There is no virus in them at all. RNA is quite unstable, so after a short time the RNA will be degraded by RNases.

[MChambers]

I'm not sure I understand your last question, but both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are mRNA vaccines. There is no virus in them at all. RNA is quite unstable, so after a short time the RNA will be degraded by RNases.

Perhaps Lord Ash is asking whether if you have been successfully vaccinated you could nevertheless be infected by the coronavirus and thus run the risk of spreading it to others, particularly people who do not have immunity, such as people who've not been vaccinated or infected and recovered or people who are immunosuppressed.

My understanding as a nonexpert is that this is a bit of an open question. That is, it sounds like the mRNA vaccines don't entirely prevent a mild infection, so that in theory one could be infected and spreading the coronavirus. But you are the real expert.

[wavedukefan70s]

Toilet paper must be a hiddem vaccine for covid .people have cleared our shelves again.smh

[CDu]

Perhaps Lord Ash is asking whether if you have been successfully vaccinated you could nevertheless be infected by the coronavirus and thus run the risk of spreading it to others, particularly people who do not have immunity, such as people who've not been vaccinated or infected and recovered or people who are immunosuppressed.

My understanding as a nonexpert is that this is a bit of an open question. That is, it sounds like the mRNA vaccines don't entirely prevent a mild infection, so that in theory one could be infected and spreading the coronavirus. But you are the real expert.

I mean, at least 8 people who got the vaccine also contracted the virus, so clearly you can still be infected. I would presume (not 100% certain) that this also means they spent some time as infectious as well. So I think the answer is "yes, but the risks of being infectED and infectIOUS are greatly reduced."

[MChambers]

The Giant grocery chain in the DC area has apologized for an advertisement about a Thanksgiving "super spread":

As the Washington region braces for a Thanksgiving Day in the middle of a coronavirus surge, one leading grocery store chain has some advice in its pre-holiday advertising.

“Hosting? Plan a Super Spread,” reads the tag line of a full page advertisement for Giant Food that appeared the December issue of its own magazine, Savory.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2020/1...ead-ad-mishap/

[Rich]

The Giant grocery chain in the DC area has apologized for an advertisement about a Thanksgiving "super spread":

As the Washington region braces for a Thanksgiving Day in the middle of a coronavirus surge, one leading grocery store chain has some advice in its pre-holiday advertising.

“Hosting? Plan a Super Spread,” reads the tag line of a full page advertisement for Giant Food that appeared the December issue of its own magazine, Savory.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2020/1...ead-ad-mishap/

This needs to be cross referenced with "Laughter the Best Medicine"*

Screenshot_2020-11-18 Grocery Chain Apologizes for Super Spread Ad Mishap Washingtonian (DC).jpg

[sagegrouse]

I mean, at least 8 people who got the vaccine also contracted the virus, so clearly you can still be infected. I would presume (not 100% certain) that this also means they spent some time as infectious as well. So I think the answer is "yes, but the risks of being infectED and infectIOUS are greatly reduced."

CDu knows much more about this stuff than I do, even when he's talking in his sleep.

BUT -- there's a two-step process:

1. Get vaccinated and have only a 5-10 percent chance of being infected if exposed, compared to those without vaccination..
2. Get everyone else you are likely to run into vaccinated, and the degree of exposure would be 90-95 percent below normal.
3. These two multiply, so the likelihood of an infection is down far, far below -- at least two orders of magnitude below the normal likelihood of being infected. (If eight percent in a normal state -- then 0.08 percent -- or eight chances out of ten thousand.
4. If vaccination is prevalent in the population the disease will die out.

There's bunch of R0, infection rates, etc. that lay out the math. And I'm sure I made a hash out of the explanation, which the wizards on the thread will surely straighten out.

[CDu]

CDu knows much more about this stuff than I do, even when he's talking in his sleep.

BUT -- there's a two-step process:

1. Get vaccinated and have only a 5-10 percent chance of being infected if exposed, compared to those without vaccination..
2. Get everyone else you are likely to run into vaccinated, and the degree of exposure would be 90-95 percent below normal.
3. These two multiply, so the likelihood of an infection is down far, far below -- at least two orders of magnitude below the normal likelihood of being infected. (If eight percent in a normal state -- then 0.08 percent -- or eight chances out of ten thousand.
4. If vaccination is prevalent in the population the disease will die out.

There's bunch of R0, infection rates, etc. that lay out the math. And I'm sure I made a hash out of the explanation, which the wizards on the thread will surely straighten out.

Yep, absolutely. I was just looking at the impact of just one vaccination. If you vaccinate one person, that person is at a reduced risk of infection (and thus a reduced risk of infecting others) compared with the general population. But as sage correctly states, as you vaccinate more people you get a compounding effect: direct protection (from receiving a vaccination) and indirect protection (conferred by others around you getting vaccinated).

Vaccinate enough folks and there isn't enough room for infection circulating to sustain the disease. "Enough" depends on the virulence of the disease; highly contagious/transmittable viruses require a higher vaccination rate to achieve herd immunity.

In the short-term, it's unlikely that we will have enough doses to achieve herd immunity. So the vaccines will go to either the highest-risk folks or the folks most at risk for spreading the disease (ideally both).

[jtelander]

When I go out in public, I assume that I am infected but asymptomatic and mask accordingly.
I'm not clear how that assumption should change after getting vaccinated and how that will change over time.
I'm also unclear how to interpret efficacy and effectiveness numbers in the context of the vaccine developmental studies and also in real life scenarios.

I greatly appreciate this thread, I read every post. Thanks to all who contribute.

[bundabergdevil]

It all comes back to Dolly Parton? According to this article, she could lay a small claim to being our coronavirus vaccine fairy godmother.

https://slate.com/culture/2020/11/do...explained.html

[CrazyNotCrazie]

New York City schools are fully remote, effective immediately. Months ago the Mayor and Schools Chancellor (or as we call them, Dumb and Dumber) chose a somewhat arbitrary 3% threshold over a rolling 7 day cycle. We had been getting close so knew this was a possibility. The frustration that many people have is that they are not taking corresponding steps elsewhere - the are making restaurants close at 10 pm but otherwise, it is pretty much status quo - restaurants have low occupancy indoor dining, gyms can be open, etc.

As the parent of two kids in elementary school, one of whom has significant developmental needs around socialization so really needs to be around other kids, this is incredibly frustrating. And selfishly, my kids have Thursday and Friday as their in-school days, so this hits us extra hard - I was hoping we would at least get the next two days. I take coronavirus really seriously - I was the one here in the spring who was getting angry at posters from the rest of the country who thought this was a big joke. But schools, especially elementary schools, should be the last thing to close. Closing schools again is likely inevitable. But I would feel a lot better about it if it was being done by intelligent people in an intelligent way.

Aargh.

[budwom]

New York City schools are fully remote, effective immediately. Months ago the Mayor and Schools Chancellor (or as we call them, Dumb and Dumber) chose a somewhat arbitrary 3% threshold over a rolling 7 day cycle. We had been getting close so knew this was a possibility. The frustration that many people have is that they are not taking corresponding steps elsewhere - the are making restaurants close at 10 pm but otherwise, it is pretty much status quo - restaurants have low occupancy indoor dining, gyms can be open, etc.

As the parent of two kids in elementary school, one of whom has significant developmental needs around socialization so really needs to be around other kids, this is incredibly frustrating. And selfishly, my kids have Thursday and Friday as their in-school days, so this hits us extra hard - I was hoping we would at least get the next two days. I take coronavirus really seriously - I was the one here in the spring who was getting angry at posters from the rest of the country who thought this was a big joke. But schools, especially elementary schools, should be the last thing to close. Closing schools again is likely inevitable. But I would feel a lot better about it if it was being done by intelligent people in an intelligent way.

Aargh.

can you set up some structured learning with like minded parents? That's what I see happening around here, pods popping up here and there with small groups of kids, rotating parental supervision and learning...

[Bluedog]

New York City schools are fully remote, effective immediately. Months ago the Mayor and Schools Chancellor (or as we call them, Dumb and Dumber) chose a somewhat arbitrary 3% threshold over a rolling 7 day cycle. We had been getting close so knew this was a possibility. The frustration that many people have is that they are not taking corresponding steps elsewhere - the are making restaurants close at 10 pm but otherwise, it is pretty much status quo - restaurants have low occupancy indoor dining, gyms can be open, etc.

As the parent of two kids in elementary school, one of whom has significant developmental needs around socialization so really needs to be around other kids, this is incredibly frustrating. And selfishly, my kids have Thursday and Friday as their in-school days, so this hits us extra hard - I was hoping we would at least get the next two days. I take coronavirus really seriously - I was the one here in the spring who was getting angry at posters from the rest of the country who thought this was a big joke. But schools, especially elementary schools, should be the last thing to close. Closing schools again is likely inevitable. But I would feel a lot better about it if it was being done by intelligent people in an intelligent way.

Aargh.

Yep, we should be going Euro model...where they have enacted STRICTER restrictions than the U.S. almost universally, EXCEPT have kept schools open throughout (with proper protocols in place of course).
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/13/world...ntl/index.html

London (CNN)Late last month, Ireland entered a strict, six-week lockdown against the spread of Covid-19, under which social gatherings are prohibited, exercise permitted only within five kilometers of the home, and bars and restaurants closed.

But as he announced the new restrictions, Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Micheál Martin emphasized that schools and childcare facilities should stay open. "This is necessary because we cannot and will not allow our children and young people's futures to be another victim of his disease. They need their education," Martin said.

There has been a similar story in many European countries including Germany, France and England, which made it their mission to keep in-person learning going, even as they imposed strict measures to combat the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
In contrast, major cities in the United States, including Detroit, Boston and Philadelphia, are shutting schools and moving classes online in a bid to stave off rising infection rates.

The only place where I've seen data linking schools to legit increased community spread was in Israel, which imposed NO protocols (masks, social distancing) and had high schoolers the same as elementary school students. Seems like younger students being in schools with protocols in place has clearly NOT been a source of many new infections.

can you set up some structured learning with like minded parents? That's what I see happening around here, pods popping up here and there with small groups of kids, rotating parental supervision and learning...

Same thing happening by me but requires: 1.) Potentially a parent to quit their job if you have two working parents (and this has been happening with regularity, particularly with mothers who are choosing to exit the workforce), 2.) A skillset and temperament to teach -- it's not that easy, hence why teachers require a lot training and education on it. 3.) Space and resources, and still have potential risk of spread with the pod.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

can you set up some structured learning with like minded parents? That's what I see happening around here, pods popping up here and there with small groups of kids, rotating parental supervision and learning...

We have a part-time nanny who is a college student. In the spring we couldn't have her come in so it was a real scramble. Now we have her coming in and helping with school work on remote days, which has been very helpful. If the kids aren't going to school we will have to pay her for more hours. My work is very flexible so I can get things done nights and weekends to free myself up on weekdays to help with school, but it is not an ideal situation. School is obviously not a babysitter, but there is a lot of juggling going on, especially because they gave us almost no notice. Though again, my greatest concern is educational and social outcomes for my kids and their health, rather than my schedule or the cost of the nanny.

[sagegrouse]

As news headlines indicate, we are unhappily setting records every day. Seven-day average for new cases is 165,000. The deaths reported today, November 18, total 1,956 (7-day ave. is 1,265), which is the highest number since May 6.

[bundabergdevil]

I guess Ben Carson has recovered and is saying he took the MyPillow guy’s oleander product.

https://thehill.com/homenews/news/52...y-mypillow-ceo

[Section 15]

It all comes back to Dolly Parton? According to this article, she could lay a small claim to being our coronavirus vaccine fairy godmother.

https://slate.com/culture/2020/11/do...explained.html

https://www.boston.com/culture/music...AUDID=24186673

“Vaccine, vaccine, vaccine, vaccine / I’m begging of you, please go in my arm / Vaccine, vaccine, vaccine, vaccine / Please just keep me safe from COVID harm”

[-jk]

https://www.boston.com/culture/music...AUDID=24186673

“Vaccine, vaccine, vaccine, vaccine / I’m begging of you, please go in my arm / Vaccine, vaccine, vaccine, vaccine / Please just keep me safe from COVID harm”

Fun take!

https://twitter.com/ryancordell/stat...40517332885507

-jk

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Here are the top 15 ("worst 15?") states in new cases per million population for today, November 17, 2020:

1	 2,177 	Wyoming
2	 1,419   North Dakota
3	 1,282   Montana
4	 1,217 	Wisconsin
5	 1,137 	South Dakota
6	 1,051 	Minnesota
7	 1,003 	New Mexico
8	 996 	Idaho
9	 994    Illinois
10	 991 	Utah
11	 963 	Iowa
12	 917 	Missouri
13	 866 	Alaska
14	 811 	Indiana
15	 789 	Michigan

The top in new infections are the states from the northern plains and the Northern Rockies.

No Southern or Eastern states make the list.

The answer is probably weather related. It had already turned cold in those states forcing people inside. Until just last few days we have been able to socialize outside. Unfortunately I suspect we are next. In fact it already appears to be happening where I live.