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  1. #10861
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    To anyone experiencing Covid discouragement, I recommend high-dose intravenous dexamethasone, used daily until side effects kick in.

  2. #10862
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Eh, I think the most likely reason that deaths haven't spiked as high as in March/April is a combination of things:

    1. We vastly underestimated the number of cases back in February/March/April. Most believe we were probably underestimating infections by a factor of 5 to 10 back when testing was not as prevalent.
    2. Deaths are a lagging indicator by a few weeks, and the re-emergence of cases in Europe started about 3 weeks ago (i.e., we are still a week or two away from seeing the real spike in deaths).

    So I think the story is about to start looking less rosy. It will still look better than things did in March/April, by virtue of much more extensive testing now than we had back then.

    I do suspect that we're doing a better job of taking care of the elderly and other high-risk people (mainly the elderly and high-risk folks are taking more precautions). But I don't think that is the major driver for the divergence in deaths to cases we've seen so far in October in Europe.
    CDu -- on topic as always. I would add the folowing:

    Seniors in residential facilities were totally unprotected in March and April and were infected by both visitors and staff members carrying the virus. It was a perfect storm. Every single death in my small county, for example, came at such residences. Now everyone is getting tested, and the incidence among the most vulnerable is far less.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  3. #10863
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Dodgers doing their part to spread the virus

    Justin Turner of the Dodgers, after testing positive and being pulled from the game, went back on the field for the postgame celebration. Took off his mask for the pictures. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...tive-game-six/

  4. #10864
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by mpj96 View Post
    Not an expert. Just another parent so take the below for whatever it is worth.

    Schools have a strong proclivity to shut down to avoid risk, however slight. Where I live we have had many a "snow day" without precipitation of any kind. Famously adopted by doctors, the culture of public education in many cases can well be described as "first do no harm". It makes sense. Both are fiduciary cultures.


    Add that cultural proclivity to the fact that there could not possibly be overwhelming evidence as to safety of in person schooling so early in the game. Inevitably many schools will choose to remain virtual whether or not harm is likely to occur. The weight of potential harm balanced against a host of unknown virus variables militates strongly for a virtual approach.

    All that said, it seems so far that the great preponderance of schools (not colleges) have been ok. From what I have read, heard & observed the kids attending school are doing better in school and much happier about life in general. There are real harms that result from a lack of in person schooling. As more and more people experience virtual schooling those harms become easier to recognize.

    For parents with the option to return their kids to school this "which does least harm" choice is difficult because there is real risk of harm no matter which decision you make. No great choices. Do you choose the one with the best possible upside (return to school) or the one with the least bad potential downside (stay home).

    We chose to let our daughter return to school in early October after keeping her out for the months prior. Our son doesn't have that option as his school is 100% virtual until at least next semester.

    In the meantime we monitor the situation and have told our daughter that we could have to pull her back if the situation changes for the worse. The numbers are ticking up so gather your rosebuds while ye may.
    Thanks for sharing this perspective. I agree that there are very real negative effects of school closure on students' mental health and their cumulative academic progress. On the other hand, I'd offer the counterpoint that one major reason for still-widespread school closures is that the virus is hitting certain populations more heavily than others. So if you aren't feeling too much of the squeeze personally, try to remember that there are almost certainly students (and teachers) in your child's school whose families and communities are feeling much harder hit and feeling less supported or hopeful in the event that they or one of theirs should be stricken.
    *Please note that I mean this not as a personal rebuttal, but just a general comment on the disproportionate effects of Covid based on various community/cultural factors.

    Quote Originally Posted by dukebluesincebirth View Post
    ...The hybrid schedule has also been a nightmare for teachers, trying to juggle too many moving parts to stay sane...
    I too have been somewhat reassured (and mildly, pleasantly surprised) at the lack of widespread, catastrophic school-related outbreaks.
    But oh boy, this point about the mental switching involved in teaching under current conditions, to me, can't be overstated. It has been one thing to basically reinvent our profession in 6 months, but now many of us are on to doing version 2.0 and version 3.0 at the same time, while also carrying the anxiety and mental burdens of serving student populations with a range of different familial experiences & resources to weather the storm, to say nothing of the additional anxiety created by our desire to keep ourselves and our families safe. It is an immense mental and emotional burden to carry, and we as a profession will be positively exhausted when we eventually come out of the other end of the tunnel.

  5. #10865
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    CDu -- on topic as always. I would add the folowing:

    Seniors in residential facilities were totally unprotected in March and April and were infected by both visitors and staff members carrying the virus. It was a perfect storm. Every single death in my small county, for example, came at such residences. Now everyone is getting tested, and the incidence among the most vulnerable is far less.
    Yep, definitely agree. And would add that the overwhelming of the healthcare systems in certain spots didn't help either.

  6. #10866
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by kexman View Post
    This same school district put out a video from a Wash U. infectious disease doctor basically saying that schools are completely safe as long as they take mitigation strategies like wearing masks. He basically said that community case numbers do not matter since mitigation strategies work so well. Any thoughts by our infectious disease experts. I will say schools do not seem to be the disaster I expected them to be, but he seemed very confident in the safety of our schools. If there was such overwhelming evidence for the safety of our schools (lack of transmission in school) I would think that more schools would be returning around the country. Thoughts from our experts.
    He/she can't possibly make that statement definitively. We just don't have enough data.

    It seems so far that elementary schools are doing MUCH better with in-person schooling than are colleges. There have been, as you know, and continue to be, fairly large outbreaks on college campuses all across the country. Seems that the little ones are a fair bit wiser than their older brothers/sisters/friends.

    Long story short: it may well be true that it is safe to hold in-person schooling for certain age groups, provided that the school commit to following rules/regulations; at present we don't have enough data to say categorically that opening schools is "completely safe." Time will tell.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  7. #10867
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    He/she can't possibly make that statement definitively. We just don't have enough data.

    It seems so far that elementary schools are doing MUCH better with in-person schooling than are colleges. There have been, as you know, and continue to be, fairly large outbreaks on college campuses all across the country. Seems that the little ones are a fair bit wiser than their older brothers/sisters/friends.

    Long story short: it may well be true that it is safe to hold in-person schooling for certain age groups, provided that the school commit to following rules/regulations; at present we don't have enough data to say categorically that opening schools is "completely safe." Time will tell.
    In addition to elementary schools doing better than colleges (and likely middle and high schools) at avoiding outbreaks, one could argue that the marginal benefit of in-person education is a lot greater for elementary school students than for older students - so much of early childhood education is socializing, plus younger kids are less able to do their work independently.

    The combination of these two factors would lead one to believe that the largest amount of resources should be devoted to getting elementary schools open. With the huge caveat being that this is done a) in communities that aren't having surges in active cases, and b) if it is done, it is done as cautiously as possible - smaller classes, masks, temperature checks, etc. I think a lot of districts have realized this and rather than having one-size fits all, have implemented different re-opening policies for elementary schools vs. high schools.

  8. #10868
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d?srnd=premium

    Somewhat sobering story about what it takes to almost completely eradicate the virus in a large metropolitan area. And no guarantee that the virus won't emerge again once the city is opened back up. I just don't see the USA ever going to this extreme, in all honesty.

  9. #10869
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by duke79 View Post
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d?srnd=premium

    Somewhat sobering story about what it takes to almost completely eradicate the virus in a large metropolitan area. And no guarantee that the virus won't emerge again once the city is opened back up. I just don't see the USA ever going to this extreme, in all honesty.
    This is behind a pay wall for me.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  10. #10870
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    We are rounding the turn and heading for home it appears.
    Remember when your kids were playing Tee-Ball and somebody would be on second base, the batter would hit the ball and the base-runner would head for first base?

  11. #10871
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    This is behind a pay wall for me.
    Talking about Melbourne Australia.

  12. #10872
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Germany announces partial four-week shutdown.

    https://news.yahoo.com/germany-annou...hiSIekcCfHUzE1

  13. #10873
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Germany announces partial four-week shutdown.

    https://news.yahoo.com/germany-annou...hiSIekcCfHUzE1
    Germany: 574 cases per 100k, 12 deaths per 100k
    U.S.: 2694 cases per 100k, 69 deaths per 100k

    To be fair, though, certain localities in the U.S. have also enacted the same "partial shutdown." My state for example seems basically the same as what Germany is planning (for certain regions of the state admittedly) - no indoor dining with restaurants, bars, & theaters closed, with shops and schools still open. Actually, most schools by me are closed whereas sounds like they're largely open in Germany. So, in some locations, we're more strict than Germany, but Germany certainly is nationwide policy and U.S. is a patchwork with U.S. numbers larger than Germany's...So, long story short, not looking good ...

  14. #10874
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Long story short: it may well be true that it is safe to hold in-person schooling for certain age groups, provided that the school commit to following rules/regulations; at present we don't have enough data to say categorically that opening schools is "completely safe." Time will tell.
    I'd like to add: a good friend of mine teaches HS in an urban school district that has its share of disciplinary issues among the kids. In her opinion, the chances of widespread mask compliance should in-person school return is effectively zero. Too many kids don't listen, don't care, don't feel it affects them, don't tell me what to do, etc etc. If you insist they to put it on, they'll probably do so momentarily, and the next minute it'll be around their chin again. There's not enough SROs to enforce it, there's nowhere to send the kids, the office is busy and won't take them etc etc. The HS is also in a very old building with ancient ventilation systems (her classroom in particular has no windows). She is near retirement age, and has at least 1 underlying condition that makes Covid particularly risky for her (beyond simply being in her 60s). That's something a lot of people forget; the kids may have much less risk, but they're not there by themselves.

    This is her opinion, not necessarily mine, but I think she's taught long enough to know what is reasonable to expect of the kids at her school.

    I don't really know of a good in-person school solution short of teaching outside under a big outdoor tent (roof only, industrial fans around perimeter to create airflow). Similar to the things Duke puts up for college homecoming events that are held outdoors when weather is potentially rainy.

  15. #10875
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    You married someone in the 6th-8th grade?

    (Sorry, someone was gonna say it).

    I have not dealt with anything as difficult as sending my son back to school this year (11th grade) and my daughter to college in a pandemic. Best of luck, it sucks.
    My wife and I met between 11th and 12th grade, and married when I was 23, so educated people definitely react to us like we got married in 6th grade.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  16. #10876
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    This is my second week of in-person hybrid instruction (up to 50% capacity in the building, alternating full virtual weeks, everyone with the option to remain full virtual).
    I expect this to last another 3-4 weeks before we go back to full virtual sometime just before or after Thanksgiving.
    Katniss.jpg

    My son was supposed to go back today (he isn't), and my wife is scheduled for Veterans' Day. If the job weren't tied to a defined benefit pension, I think she'd have quit this year.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  17. #10877
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Poop and the Coronavirus

    Great Headline: Sewage testing shows a country flush with coronavirus cases

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/healt...ike/index.html

  18. #10878
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Katniss.jpg

    My son was supposed to go back today (he isn't), and my wife is scheduled for Veterans' Day. If the job weren't tied to a defined benefit pension, I think she'd have quit this year.
    I'm lucky that 1) I really, really, really love my job and am genuinely happy to go to work, and 2) I work in a privileged community with significantly greater than average resources for enhancing in-person safety, enforcing protocols, supporting kids and teachers technologically, etc.
    I went for my physical on Monday, and laid out my school's reopening policies & procedures to my doctor to ask, "Am I crazy for feeling like this is actually the very safest anyone could be about this?" She told me that no, I wasn't crazy, and that she'd actually heard through the grapevine about my school's approach to things and wished more places would/could do what we're doing. So I found that quite reassuring.

  19. #10879
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Question for the medical experts; and apologies if this has already been addressed; it's a long thread.

    But my daughter--who has no relevant background but is pretty grounded in these sorts of things--keeps sending my wife and I articles about the preventative benefits of probiotics. Is there really a benefit here?

  20. #10880
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Rent free in tarheels’ heads
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Question for the medical experts; and apologies if this has already been addressed; it's a long thread.

    But my daughter--who has no relevant background but is pretty grounded in these sorts of things--keeps sending my wife and I articles about the preventative benefits of probiotics. Is there really a benefit here?
    I thought the brief discussion about the alimentary canal happened a few pages ago.
    “Coach said no 3s.” - Zion on The Block

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