PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I will defer to those smarter than me about such things to determine the merits of this research, but it is getting picked up pretty widely - research was done on the spread of coronavirus from the Sturgis rally in SD in August and there have been 250,000 cases nationwide that can be attributed to the rally. I have attached links for a Forbes article summarizing the research as well as the actual research piece.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybe.../#527d515b45fa

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

[YmoBeThere]

Good luck.

FWIW it is looking like school districts are doing a much better job than universities of containing this. Our local school system (SonPK is in high school) has done very well so far, and every week they post the number of positive test results from each school for both students and staff. I hope that result continues.

That whole age of majority gets in the way some times.

[budwom]

Just drove past our local elementary school...kids sitting outside in groups with Teutonic levels of precision, all nicely spaced, most impressive.

[dukebluesincebirth]

So my almost-three year old started school today, and by noon her teacher had let the director know that her son had just tested positive. He's sixteen and lives with my daughter's teacher. She is on her way to get a rapid result test done now. If she tests positive, the school will have to shut down. My wife works at the school in a different classroom, but the building is not large. First day of school. Fun times.

[freshmanjs]

So my almost-three year old started school today, and by noon her teacher had let the director know that her son had just tested positive. He's sixteen and lives with my daughter's teacher. She is on her way to get a rapid result test done now. If she tests positive, the school will have to shut down. My wife works at the school in a different classroom, but the building is not large. First day of school. Fun times.

Their plan is to shut down the school if there is 1 case? That seems absurd. If that is the plan, better not to open.

[OldPhiKap]

That whole age of majority gets in the way some times.

Yup. Alcohol, "freedom," and being bulletproof is a bad combination.

School kids by contrast are more compliant to authority in the classroom -- at least on this score it seems.

[rsvman]

I will defer to those smarter than me about such things to determine the merits of this research, but it is getting picked up pretty widely - research was done on the spread of coronavirus from the Sturgis rally in SD in August and there have been 250,000 cases nationwide that can be attributed to the rally. I have attached links for a Forbes article summarizing the research as well as the actual research piece.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybe.../#527d515b45fa

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

To point out the most obvious mistake, the say "assuming none of these cases were fatal," but we, in fact, know that one person who attended the event did succumb to the virus. Jus' sayin.'


Otherwise, it's a lot of conjecture, but it points out something that has been shown to be true over and over again, and that is that generally people can't really conceptualize exponential growth.

[dukebluesincebirth]

Their plan is to shut down the school if there is 1 case? That seems absurd. If that is the plan, better not to open.

It does seem rather extreme, but it’s a fairly small building and I guess the teacher had been all over, possibly exposing many people. Also I think finding a substitute for 10 school days to begin the school year with 2/3 year olds is an issue. Combining the kids in her class with another class is a distancing issue.

[MChambers]

The Washington Post has a sad and scary story about the survivors of the first wave in Bergamo:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...m/?arc404=true

Beyond that, according to interviews with eight Pope John XXIII Hospital doctors involved in the work, many patients months later are dealing with a galaxy of daily conditions and have no clear answer on when it will all subside: leg pain, tingling in the extremities, hair loss, depression, severe fatigue.

Some patients had preexisting conditions, but doctors say survivors are not simply experiencing a version of old problems.

“We are talking about something new,” said Marco Rizzi, the head of the hospital’s infectious-disease unit.

[ClemmonsDevil]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/healt...use/index.html

Oh boy...

[duke2x]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/healt...use/index.html

From the article: "This is a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials...In large trials, illnesses will happen by chance but must be independently reviewed to check this carefully. We are working to expedite the review of the single event to minimize any potential impact on the trial timeline."

From a link inside the article: https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/healt...ial/index.html
"The vaccine, called by its experimental name AZD1222, combines a weakened version of a common cold virus that infects chimpanzees and a protein from the virus that causes Covid-19 to induce an immune response. The vaccine was created by Oxford University before being licensed to AstraZeneca for further development."

This sounds similar to the Moderna trial at UNC that I considered if they had needed my demographic. It sounds like it is 1 case, which is not enough to worry yet.

[bundabergdevil]

From the article: "This is a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials...In large trials, illnesses will happen by chance but must be independently reviewed to check this carefully. We are working to expedite the review of the single event to minimize any potential impact on the trial timeline."

From a link inside the article: https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/31/healt...ial/index.html
"The vaccine, called by its experimental name AZD1222, combines a weakened version of a common cold virus that infects chimpanzees and a protein from the virus that causes Covid-19 to induce an immune response. The vaccine was created by Oxford University before being licensed to AstraZeneca for further development."

This sounds similar to the Moderna trial at UNC that I considered if they had needed my demographic. It sounds like it is 1 case, which is not enough to worry yet.

Ummm, that sounds like the first in a series of bad decisions that ends with finding the Statue of Liberty on a beach.

But I'm no doctor (zaius).

[sagegrouse]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/healt...use/index.html

Oh boy...

Well, who knows?

AstraZeneca pauses coronavirus vaccine trial after unexplained illness in volunteer

[rsvman]

Ummm, that sounds like the first in a series of bad decisions that ends with finding the Statue of Liberty on a beach.

But I'm no doctor (zaius).

I'm thinking I'm missing a pop culture reference here, but the idea of using a virus from another species to deliver an antigen isn't anything new. The idea is that because the virus is put into the wrong host, its replication is limited, allowing it to introduce the antigen but then it shuts itself down. This has been studied extensively with fowlpox viruses, for example.

[duke2x]

Ummm, that sounds like the first in a series of bad decisions that ends with finding the Statue of Liberty on a beach.

But I'm no doctor (zaius).

It's more likely to be Admiral Nelson floating in the Thames since it's AZ.

[bundabergdevil]

I'm thinking I'm missing a pop culture reference here, but the idea of using a virus from another species to deliver an antigen isn't anything new. The idea is that because the virus is put into the wrong host, its replication is limited, allowing it to introduce the antigen but then it shuts itself down. This has been studied extensively with fowlpox viruses, for example.

A big one, too.

[Neals384]

I'm thinking I'm missing a pop culture reference here, but the idea of using a virus from another species to deliver an antigen isn't anything new. The idea is that because the virus is put into the wrong host, its replication is limited, allowing it to introduce the antigen but then it shuts itself down. This has been studied extensively with fowlpox viruses, for example.

Think Charlton Heston.

[GoDuke2004]

I was donating blood recently and one of the perks is they screen all donors for COVID antibodies, partly so they can have a pool for convalescent plasma donors. I was particularly interested in this as it looks at potential exposure of healthy folks. So off to google I went looking for data on how many blood donors have had positive SARS-COV-2 antibody screens and could not find any overall reports on this. Has anyone seen these numbers reported? Or know where I should look for them?

[aimo]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/healt...use/index.html

Oh boy...

I'm almost relieved to hear this. Everything is moving so fast, I worry that testing is being rushed. To know that they are taking their time to stop and check this out before continuing makes me feel a little better about it.

[budwom]

I'm almost relieved to hear this. Everything is moving so fast, I worry that testing is being rushed. To know that they are taking their time to stop and check this out before continuing makes me feel a little better about it.

given the huge number of people in the trial, this (to me anyway) isn't a sign of rushing. Still TBD what the cause of the (serious) illness was.