PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[MChambers]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...c29_story.html

“The IHME model projects that under the most likely scenario, 410,451 people in the United States will have died by Jan. 1.
The best-case scenario is 288,381 deaths and worst-case is 620,029, that model forecasts.”

[sagegrouse]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...c29_story.html

“The IHME model projects that under the most likely scenario, 410,451 people in the United States will have died by Jan. 1.
The best-case scenario is 288,381 deaths and worst-case is 620,029, that model forecasts.”

Lessee... We have 190,000 deaths as of today, and the daily death rate (seven-day average) is running about 900. There are 118 days left in the year. To reach 410,000 the daily average would have to be [cue sound of gears squeaking] (410-190)/118 = 1,864 -- or twice what the average is right now. Our peak average -- way back in April -- was 2,200. I believe the technical term for the warning is YIKES!!

[MChambers]

Lessee... We have 190,000 deaths as of today, and the daily death rate (seven-day average) is running about 900. There are 118 days left in the year. To reach 410,000 the daily average would have to be [cue sound of gears squeaking] (410-190)/118 = 1,864 -- or twice what the average is right now. Our peak average -- way back in April -- was 2,200. I believe the technical term for the warning is YIKES!!

Can you say “second wave”? Apparently the model thinks that our behavior will get worse and being inside will also worsen the spread.

[Skydog]

...and being inside will also worsen the spread.

Absent an amazingly quick appearance of an effective vaccine the winter spread of this disease has to be many times worse than what we have experienced so far, right? Everyone cooped up inside during a pandemic - that can’t be good.

[sagegrouse]

Absent an amazingly quick appearance of an effective vaccine the winter spread of this disease has to be many times worse than what we have experienced so far, right? Everyone cooped up inside during a pandemic - that can’t be good.

We don't know what will happen. We are much better at protecting seniors, testing, and -- who can believe it -- doing actual tracing.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Lessee... We have 190,000 deaths as of today, and the daily death rate (seven-day average) is running about 900. There are 118 days left in the year. To reach 410,000 the daily average would have to be [cue sound of gears squeaking] (410-190)/118 = 1,864 -- or twice what the average is right now. Our peak average -- way back in April -- was 2,200. I believe the technical term for the warning is YIKES!!

No no no no no... didn’t you hear that we’re “turning the corner?”

If we’re turning the corner, I’m worried it’s into heavy oncoming traffic.

[camion]

Since I have a Furman U connection Here are a few items on how they are handling the pandemic.

I learned that they are using the LiveSafe app to get a handle on Covid-19 among students, faculty, staff.

I signed up and now I am getting prods on my phone to report status:

From Furman University: Paladins, don't forget to complete your Daily Health Screening in LiveSafe.

I also got a message on testing at Furman:

From Furman University: Today is testing day Paladins! All on-campus and approved commuter students please go to Timmones Arena (basketball arena) at your scheduled time!

Furman is running a hybrid system of classes with some on campus and some virtual. Freshman and Senior on-campus students arrived last week. Sophomore and Junior on-campus students should arrive late next week. There is also a pledge to act responsibly that all students must agree to. Failure to abide by the pledge could theoretically lead to dismissal.


At this point things seem to be going OK.

Further note: In a move that may or may not be related to the pandemic the KA fraternity has been banned from campus for 4 years for several violations. The latest was an unregistered party.

[budwom]

^ speaking of South Carolina, I saw some footage of parties at Gamecock University, not at all encouraging vis a vis The Corvid...some places aren't getting the messages. Student from Iowa State (I think) on the news last night summed it up, "if I get it I don't think I'll die."

[JasonEvans]

^ speaking of South Carolina, I saw some footage of parties at Gamecock University, not at all encouraging vis a vis The Corvid...some places aren't getting the messages. Student from Iowa State (I think) on the news last night summed it up, "if I get it I don't think I'll die."

I'm actually hoping the spread at universities is massive right now so that when the kids come home for Thanksgiving they will already be beyond spreading it and don't give it to adults with higher fatality rates. Cause my hope that 18-22 year olds will behave responsibly and not spread it is pretty much zero.

-Jason "I say that as the father of two boys in this age group and the uncle of a freshman at UGA who caught Covid after being on campus for less than a week" Evans

[Kdogg]

^ speaking of South Carolina, I saw some footage of parties at Gamecock University, not at all encouraging vis a vis The Corvid...some places aren't getting the messages. Student from Iowa State (I think) on the news last night summed it up, "if I get it I don't think I'll die."

Hey, they are trying to beat Alabama at something.

[PackMan97]

I'm actually hoping the spread at universities is massive right now so that when the kids come home for Thanksgiving they will already be beyond spreading it and don't give it to adults with higher fatality rates. Cause my hope that 18-22 year olds will behave responsibly and not spread it is pretty much zero.

-Jason "I say that as the father of two boys in this age group and the uncle of a freshman at UGA who caught Covid after being on campus for less than a week" Evans

This is part of my hope as well. Basically give the COVID-19 to all those stupid young kids who are likely not to get seriously ill (except for a few unlucky ones) ..and then they'll get better before fall break/holidays and thus we protect their parents and grandparents. It's not much of a plan, but it's a plan.

[budwom]

I'm actually hoping the spread at universities is massive right now so that when the kids come home for Thanksgiving they will already be beyond spreading it and don't give it to adults with higher fatality rates. Cause my hope that 18-22 year olds will behave responsibly and not spread it is pretty much zero.

-Jason "I say that as the father of two boys in this age group and the uncle of a freshman at UGA who caught Covid after being on campus for less than a week" Evans

Not a bad plan, but once numbers get high enough on campus (see tarheel u.) they send the kids home, instead of letting them stew on campus. I would have thought that kids MIGHT have been motivated by the obvious choice between obeying rules or being sent home to mom and dad's Basement University. It does seem to be working (fingers crossed) at some places...

[camion]

This is part of my hope as well. Basically give the COVID-19 to all those stupid young kids who are likely not to get seriously ill (except for a few unlucky ones) ..and then they'll get better before fall break/holidays and thus we protect their parents and grandparents. It's not much of a plan, but it's a plan.

I'm not all that worried about the kids and they aren't very worried themselves going by what I see. I am worried about the faculty and staff, many of whom have serious grey around the temples. It's good for achieving that distinguished professorial look, but not a good thing for COVID-19.

Several years ago I sold my house and moved to an apartment five minutes from campus in order to save time (about 50 minutes per day saved in travel time). Since the apartment complex is convenient to campus several Furman students live at the apartments. Two FU students moved in directly above me a couple of weeks ago. They are very nice, polite and considerate generally, but the only time I've seen one in a mask was the time I visited their apartment to help them with a WiFi* problem. In any event, whenever I see two or more of the FU kids coming and going, usually with a 12-pack or case of beer, they don't wear masks among their youngster ilk.



*I have worked in IT for the past two decades and that came up in conversation.

[CoachJ10]

Someone on twitter cobbled together some college updates.

Image-1.jpg

[CoachJ10]

h/t to Phil Kerpen on twitter for compiling

Image-1.jpg

[YmoBeThere]

h/t to Phil Kerpen on twitter for compiling

Image-1.jpg

Nearly impossible for me to read the labels. Interesting divisor he uses. Is it the appropriate one?

[Devilwin]

My middle granddaughter has it. She is doing better, had mild symptoms. Freshman softball player at Barton college near Wilson. She was the third player to come down with it, and was sent home.

[Skydog]

Thomas Pueyo imo is by far the smartest, most thorough and objective covid related data analyst out there. He looks at data country by country, county by county and takes into account every detail that he can get his hands on. Anyway he just published his "Good news about coronovirus." Note he is not an optimist (right now he is alarmed by a resurgence in Europe and he jokingly normally calls himself the 'messenger of doom') but he just thought he put out the most positive spin for once and how it could be worse.

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/statu...186956288?s=20

Tomas Pueyo@tomaspueyo
"Good" cornona news:
1. Only 0.5%-1% of those who catch it die. Imagine if it was 4-5%.
2. Kids barely die. Imagine if 15% of infected kids died, like with older ppl.
3. Kids don't seem to spread the virus much, even if they do get infected and shed the virus. If they were much more contagious, it would be much harder to stop.
4. Around half of ppl don't even know they've been infected (although they might have life-long consequences)·
5. There are very few infections through surfaces. Could you imagine what our lives would look like if everything you touched could infect you?
6. Planes don't seem to spread it much. Imagine if they were all superspreader events.·
7. Most contagions are either within the family or in superspreader events. That narrows down the focus of the type of event we must focus on.·
8. We have a very good grasp of what type of environment spreads the virus: indoors, with little air circulation, with lots of people talking, singing and interacting for a long period of time. That's very specific. It's easy to spot and address.·
9. Heterogeneity means herd immunity might be reached before the ~60% threshold (although it's unclear)·
10. There are dirt cheap ways to fight the virus. One of them is masking. If everybody used them properly and we avoided the worst types of events, we would stop the epidemic.·
11. We are finding treatments, and some are dirt cheap, such as dexamethasone and proning. It looks like Vitamin D can help prevent it. Cost and risk of taking it: Nearly zero·
12. We're moving towards vaccines at warp speed, unlike anything humankind has ever done. Hopefully, some will pass Phase 3 in the coming months, and in 2021 we will have one widely available.·
13. The world has been able to get together to solve a pandemic. Never before have so many people from around the world collaborated to fight such a common threat so fast. We are closer to each other.
14. This had already happened one century ago. We had plenty of records to learn from (even if we didn't learn enough)
15. Skies cleaned up. Emissions dropped. We showed slowing down global warming is possible.·
16. Governments and their ineptitude were exposed.
17. The very first countries to be exposed were also the best at managing it, showing a path to the rest of countries. Especially true of South Korea and Taiwan, but also Vietnam, Hong Kong, and others·
18. Some Western countries learned really fast. Eg, New Zealand, Iceland and Germany have done a great job.
19. We've accelerated the move to online economies by decades. This will reduce global inequality (although it might increase it in some countries)·
20. New testing methods such as quick saliva tests could mean we can test massively and quickly identify who is contagious and only isolate those.·
21. The Bradykinin hypothesis *sounds* reasonable to explain the illness. I have not seen yet a peer review that proves it wrong. If it's true, we'd have a path for good treatments quickly.
What else?

[Skydog]

h/t to Phil Kerpen on twitter for compiling

Image-1.jpg

A link to this would be great. It's too small for me to read and when I enlarge it, it becomes blurry.

[camion]

Thomas Pueyo imo is by far the smartest, most thorough and objective covid related data analyst out there. He looks at data country by country, county by county and takes into account every detail that he can get his hands on. Anyway he just published his "Good news about coronovirus." Note he is not an optimist (right now he is alarmed by a resurgence in Europe and he jokingly normally calls himself the 'messenger of doom') but he just thought he put out the most positive spin for once and how it could be worse.

https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/statu...186956288?s=20

Tomas Pueyo@tomaspueyo
"Good" cornona news:
1. Only 0.5%-1% of those who catch it die. Imagine if it was 4-5%.
2. Kids barely die. Imagine if 15% of infected kids died, like with older ppl.
3. Kids don't seem to spread the virus much, even if they do get infected and shed the virus. If they were much more contagious, it would be much harder to stop.
4. Around half of ppl don't even know they've been infected (although they might have life-long consequences)·
5. There are very few infections through surfaces. Could you imagine what our lives would look like if everything you touched could infect you?
6. Planes don't seem to spread it much. Imagine if they were all superspreader events.·
7. Most contagions are either within the family or in superspreader events. That narrows down the focus of the type of event we must focus on.·
8. We have a very good grasp of what type of environment spreads the virus: indoors, with little air circulation, with lots of people talking, singing and interacting for a long period of time. That's very specific. It's easy to spot and address.·
9. Heterogeneity means herd immunity might be reached before the ~60% threshold (although it's unclear)·
10. There are dirt cheap ways to fight the virus. One of them is masking. If everybody used them properly and we avoided the worst types of events, we would stop the epidemic.·
11. We are finding treatments, and some are dirt cheap, such as dexamethasone and proning. It looks like Vitamin D can help prevent it. Cost and risk of taking it: Nearly zero·
12. We're moving towards vaccines at warp speed, unlike anything humankind has ever done. Hopefully, some will pass Phase 3 in the coming months, and in 2021 we will have one widely available.·
13. The world has been able to get together to solve a pandemic. Never before have so many people from around the world collaborated to fight such a common threat so fast. We are closer to each other.
14. This had already happened one century ago. We had plenty of records to learn from (even if we didn't learn enough)
15. Skies cleaned up. Emissions dropped. We showed slowing down global warming is possible.·
16. Governments and their ineptitude were exposed.
17. The very first countries to be exposed were also the best at managing it, showing a path to the rest of countries. Especially true of South Korea and Taiwan, but also Vietnam, Hong Kong, and others·
18. Some Western countries learned really fast. Eg, New Zealand, Iceland and Germany have done a great job.
19. We've accelerated the move to online economies by decades. This will reduce global inequality (although it might increase it in some countries)·
20. New testing methods such as quick saliva tests could mean we can test massively and quickly identify who is contagious and only isolate those.·
21. The Bradykinin hypothesis *sounds* reasonable to explain the illness. I have not seen yet a peer review that proves it wrong. If it's true, we'd have a path for good treatments quickly.
What else?

This is generally good news for the world. Not so much for the US and one reason is that our response hasn't taken full advantage of the knowledge available, particularly for 7, 8, 10, 17, 18.

Then there's 13. If the world has been able to get together we've been exceptional at going our own way.