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  1. #8621
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    In the current stimulus package that is being debated right now, the White House is seeking to block funding for testing (as well as funding for the CDC), which is about as clear of a sign as possible that they don't want testing being done.
    The White House is trying to block billions of dollars for coronavirus testing and contact tracing in the upcoming stimulus relief bill, two Republican sources told NBC News, even as infections surge across the country and Americans face long wait times to receive test results amid high demand.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/18/whit...VpnX4d_6x3App8
    My wife just her test results (negative). Took three weeks...Basically, worthless at that point obviously. She already knew she was fine.

  2. #8622
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Side effects of vaccines

    Interesting article in Wired about the side effects of two of leading contenders (early, I know) for vaccines for Covid-19: https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19...R_0_SCIENCE_ZZ

    "The evidence so far suggests that we’re getting blinkered by these groups’ PR, and so seduced by stories of their amazing speed that we’re losing track of everything else. In particular, neither the mainstream media nor the medical press has given much attention to the two vaccines’ potential downsides—in particular, their risk of nasty adverse effects, even if they’re not life-threatening. This sort of puffery doesn’t only help to build a false impression; it may also dry the tinder for the future spread of vaccine fear-mongering."

  3. #8623
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post
    There may be a reason that China had far fewer deaths from COVID-19, in addition to dissimulation. Apparently, the original version of SARS-CoV-2 was called D614 but beginning in March, in the U.S. and Europe, this has mutated into a version now called G614 that appears to be 10 times more infectious.



    It appears that the mutation involves a more robust spike protein, which is the mechanism by which the virus enters the human cell. In the original version it was more likely to break off when trying to enter the cell. It also appears to be the case that people with the mutated version have more viral particles in their bodies, making them more contagious for that reason, in addition to the more robust spike protein. The new variant does not appear to be more deadly than the original. There appears to be no change in the virus’s response to antibodies, suggesting that vaccines being developed based on the original version of the virus will be effective against the new strain.

    Edit: this could also help explain why early estimates of the expected size of the pandemic in the U.S. were so far off.
    I suspect the biggest reason for the low cases and death toll in China is likely due to a combination of underreporting by the Chinese government, China's ability to enforce a strict lockdown, and a general willingness to wear masks by the Chinese population (and Asian countries in general). Because there was a huge spike in cases initially even in China with their "D strain." As for mortality, the D strain and G strain aren't notably different in severity of illness, just in terms of infectiousness. And China's death toll per case doesn't look out of whack.

    As for whether or not it could explain why early estimates of the expected size of the pandemic in the US were "off"? Well, a few things:
    1. We already saw the spread of the new strain in Italy. So we had a ~2-week warning of exactly how rapidly this would spread before it hit the East Coast hard. And, of course, we had a several month warning about how it would spread before it hit the South and Southwest hard.
    2. The original estimates aren't actually looking that bad right now (~240,000 deaths in the US). If anything, we're still UNDER the original estimates.
    3. The subsequent adjustments to the estimates (the ones that brought the expected case loads WAY down) were made assuming that we'd follow a lockdown procedure until the virus was contained, which obviously didn't happen. One of the mistakes the IHME made, in my opinion, was not showing multiple scenarios (e.g., full lockdown, partial lockdown, minimal lockdown efforts, etc) from the beginning, because their assumptions about how long and how observant we'd be to lockdown are/were big drivers of their results. They've now done so moving forward.

    So, no, I don't think the "new strain theory" is a reasonable explanation. I think a combination of hubris, lack of a coordinated and well-planned strategy, lack of discipline (not staying the course), and poor messaging from key places are why we are where we are today with the virus.

  4. #8624
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    it may also dry the tinder for the future spread of vaccine fear-mongering."
    I've got no doubt that's coming. When you can't convince the populace that something as so obvious and as simple as wearing a mask is beneficial, you can chuck any hopes of people voluntarily getting injected with drugs right out the window.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  5. #8625
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I suspect the biggest reason for the low cases and death toll in China is likely due to a combination of underreporting by the Chinese government, China's ability to enforce a strict lockdown, and a general willingness to wear masks by the Chinese population (and Asian countries in general). Because there was a huge spike in cases initially even in China with their "D strain." As for mortality, the D strain and G strain aren't notably different in severity of illness, just in terms of infectiousness. And China's death toll per case doesn't look out of whack.

    As for whether or not it could explain why early estimates of the expected size of the pandemic in the US were "off"? Well, a few things:
    1. We already saw the spread of the new strain in Italy. So we had a ~2-week warning of exactly how rapidly this would spread before it hit the East Coast hard. And, of course, we had a several month warning about how it would spread before it hit the South and Southwest hard.
    2. The original estimates aren't actually looking that bad right now (~240,000 deaths in the US). If anything, we're still UNDER the original estimates.
    3. The subsequent adjustments to the estimates (the ones that brought the expected case loads WAY down) were made assuming that we'd follow a lockdown procedure until the virus was contained, which obviously didn't happen. One of the mistakes the IHME made, in my opinion, was not showing multiple scenarios (e.g., full lockdown, partial lockdown, minimal lockdown efforts, etc) from the beginning, because their assumptions about how long and how observant we'd be to lockdown are/were big drivers of their results. They've now done so moving forward.

    So, no, I don't think the "new strain theory" is a reasonable explanation. I think a combination of hubris, lack of a coordinated and well-planned strategy, lack of discipline (not staying the course), and poor messaging from key places are why we are where we are today with the virus.
    Is anyone working on a hubris/discipline vaccine? We really need it.

    I guess though that those who really should take that one wouldn't. Because, you know, hubris and lack of discipline.

  6. #8626
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I've got no doubt that's coming. When you can't convince the populace that something as so obvious and as simple as wearing a mask is beneficial, you can chuck any hopes of people voluntarily getting injected with drugs right out the window.
    Doubly irritating that many of those who tell me "Calm down, there'll be a vaccine soon" (which is in no way necessarily true, and people have a totally warped historical understanding of how that happens and how fast it is) are the very same ones who will eventually refuse to get one of Bill Gates's micro-robot injections.

  7. #8627
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Doubly irritating that many of those who tell me "Calm down, there'll be a vaccine soon" (which is in no way necessarily true, and people have a totally warped historical understanding of how that happens and how fast it is) are the very same ones who will eventually refuse to get one of Bill Gates's micro-robot injections.
    Wait, are you suggesting that the coronavirus vaccine is NOT going to be a microchip implanted so that Bill Gates can keep an even-more careful watchful eye on us? Sheeyah, right. Next you'll be telling me that 5G cellphone towers don't spread the virus!
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  8. #8628
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Wait, are you suggesting that the coronavirus vaccine is NOT going to be a microchip implanted so that Bill Gates can keep an even-more careful watchful eye on us? Sheeyah, right. Next you'll be telling me that 5G cellphone towers don't spread the virus!
    Hate to break it to you, but the bolded is not at all surprising statement. It is testing that spreads the virus, duh.
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  9. #8629
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Wait, are you suggesting that the coronavirus vaccine is NOT going to be a microchip implanted so that Bill Gates can keep an even-more careful watchful eye on us? Sheeyah, right. Next you'll be telling me that 5G cellphone towers don't spread the virus!
    The irony of people believing either of those things, yet using their phones to spread those conspiracies. The same phones that actually DO pinpoint exactly where you are and where you've been.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  10. #8630
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    The irony of people believing either of those things, yet using their phones to spread those conspiracies. The same phones that actually DO pinpoint exactly where you are and where you've been.
    Well at least the phones don't give you cancer like those dadgum windmills.

  11. #8631
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Well at least the phones don't give you cancer like those dadgum windmills.
    Sez you.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  12. #8632
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    That's pretty crazy...our guy (seemingly he wants to keep his excellent practice going) allows no one in the waiting room, they call or come get you in the parking lot, and I saw no one other than the dentist and hygienist who were both wearing masks and face shields...
    My dentist was similar - wait in parking lot until you get signal, then straight to dentist chair with masked hygienist and dentist. There was one office person though, without mask. This was in May, maybe she is masked by now. But overall I ended up feeling pretty safe.

  13. #8633
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    The irony of people believing either of those things, yet using their phones to spread those conspiracies. The same phones that actually DO pinpoint exactly where you are and where you've been.
    Just because you’re paranoid, doesn’t mean they can’t place exactly where you’ve been and who you were with.

    -Eleanor Roosevelt
    Carolina delenda est

  14. #8634
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    Hate to break it to you, but the bolded is not at all surprising statement. It is testing that spreads the virus, duh.
    And I can prove it. Say we confiscated all the thermometers. Then there would be no fevers reported, right?
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  15. #8635
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    And I can prove it. Say we confiscated all the thermometers. Then there would be no fevers reported, right?
    Laws of the House of God:

    10. "If you don't take a temperature, you can't find a fever."
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  16. #8636
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Laws of the House of God:

    10. "If you don't take a temperature, you can't find a fever."
    Gomers go to ground.

  17. #8637
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Gomers go to ground.
    Or, more commonly in my line of work: Age+BUN=Lasix dose
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  18. #8638
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    On the Road to Nowhere
    Worldometers has us blowing by 4,000,000 total cases today, and a daily death toll of over 1,100. Highest since June 2.

  19. #8639
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Worldometers has us blowing by 4,000,000 total cases today, and a daily death toll of over 1,100. Highest since June 2.
    Ugh, headed in the wrong direction again. Seems like we are still in the first third of this nine inning game to use a baseball analogy.

  20. #8640
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Ugh, headed in the wrong direction again. Seems like we are still in the first third of this nine inning game to use a baseball analogy.
    I'm pretty sure it's more like an NC State basketball team playing against UNC-CH just after the Cheaters lost to Duke...at least that's the way it feels.

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