PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Tripping William]

Pint of ale in the parking lot after the tournament? Low/session ABV, of course (tees it up for TW...).

Not even that. “Round’s over? Go home!”

[YmoBeThere]

The thing that makes transmission less likely in outdoor areas is not that the virus is being "swept away" by wind currents, but that the virus is being "diluted" by the large volume of air in the surroundings, or "dispersed" into a much larger volume, if you will. Think about putting a couple of drops of red food dye into an 8-ounce glass of water versus putting the same amount of dye into an Olympic size swimming pool, and you will get an idea about why infection is less likely (though certainly not impossible) outdoors.

I had the flu shot in October of last year in prep for this winter's season. In January, on MLK Day(January 20), I attended one of the largest MLK marches here in San Antonio. To get there, I rode a bus from work with 50 other people. It took us about 25 minutes for the bus ride. Once there, we stood around in a large group fairly closely packed in at the start line of the march for nearly an hour. I did walk around as much as I could but there wasn't a whole lot of room. There were approximately 300,000 people from all over the world in attendance. Once it finally started, I walked elbow to elbow with many other people for 3 miles(probably took us 2 hours). At the end of march, we loaded back up on the bus and I returned to work. On Thursday afternoon, I popped a fever and left work early and took Friday off. I assume I had the flu. Had a fever, chills, cough(but I already had one from allergies to cedar), and was coughing up nice dark phlegm. By Saturday, the fever was gone and other than the cough, the other symptoms dissipated. I felt normal on Monday and went back to work. Given some of the pictures I've seen of beaches, pool parties, etc. those folks are as close together as I was on that January day.

Long story short, I don't know where I caught the flu, nearly impossible to know, similar to what people are experiencing with Covid-19. But the longest exposure I had was outdoors. Obviously a unique situation, but I'd be wary being outside in overly crowded situations where I couldn't social distance.

[jv001]

I had the flu shot in October of last year in prep for this winter's season. In January, on MLK Day(January 20), I attended one of the largest MLK marches here in San Antonio. To get there, I rode a bus from work with 50 other people. It took us about 25 minutes for the bus ride. Once there, we stood around in a large group fairly closely packed in at the start line of the march for nearly an hour. I did walk around as much as I could but there wasn't a whole lot of room. There were approximately 300,000 people from all over the world in attendance. Once it finally started, I walked elbow to elbow with many other people for 3 miles(probably took us 2 hours). At the end of march, we loaded back up on the bus and I returned to work. On Thursday afternoon, I popped a fever and left work early and took Friday off. I assume I had the flu. Had a fever, chills, cough(but I already had one from allergies to cedar), and was coughing up nice dark phlegm. By Saturday, the fever was gone and other than the cough, the other symptoms dissipated. I felt normal on Monday and went back to work. Given some of the pictures I've seen of beaches, pool parties, etc. those folks are as close together as I was on that January day.

Long story short, I don't know where I caught the flu, nearly impossible to know, similar to what people are experiencing with Covid-19. But the longest exposure I had was outdoors. Obviously a unique situation, but I'd be wary being outside in overly crowded situations where I couldn't social distance.

I guess you had your seasonal flu vaccine and that may have hastened your recovery.

[YmoBeThere]

I guess you had your seasonal flu vaccine and that may have hastened your recovery.

Yes, I think so. It was a fairly quick event all said and done.

[sagegrouse]

Looking at seven-day moving averages for COVID-19, the number of deaths as of May 28 has dipped below 1,000 -- 998 to be exact and 55 percent below the peak of 2,208 on April 21 (also seven-day average).

The number of cases are continuing to decline, but more modestly. New cases as of May 28 average 21,700 -- 33 percent below the peak of 31,600 on April 8.

Numbers have to be used judiciously, as I am aware of reports that some states are under-reporting coronavirus deaths. The trends, therefore, may reveal more than the numbers.

[Nrrrrvous]

Need some advice here.
Mrs. Nrrrrvous is a dance teacher (ballet, modern, yoga, etc.) and it looks as though she may be trying to teach in-person in late July/August. At least a Yoga class, with students spread 6' apart in a large gymnasium-type room. Once the actual school year starts it could be even closer.
She has asked me to ask the experts on here for mask advice. Can you guys recommend a mask or two that would be good for wearing long hours, that will not slide a lot when moving, and will do a decent job of filtering out/keeping in as much as possible. She would also like to be able to breath when doing physical activity. Can all this actually be achieved in a single mask?
She is one of those "likes to be prepared early" types so she is looking to order something soon and try it out to see how it fits, etc. We also have no idea how long it may take to ship.
Thanks in advance...

[CameronDuke]

There are now 42,533 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Commonwealth of Virginia which is an increase of 1,132 from yesterday with 1,358 deaths which is an increase of 20 from yesterday.

Today, the City of Richmond joins the rest of Virginia with Phase 1 reopening. Also, starting today, citizens of Virginia must wear masks inside buildings, stores, and restaurants.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Need some advice here.
Mrs. Nrrrrvous is a dance teacher (ballet, modern, yoga, etc.) and it looks as though she may be trying to teach in-person in late July/August. At least a Yoga class, with students spread 6' apart in a large gymnasium-type room. Once the actual school year starts it could be even closer.
She has asked me to ask the experts on here for mask advice. Can you guys recommend a mask or two that would be good for wearing long hours, that will not slide a lot when moving, and will do a decent job of filtering out/keeping in as much as possible. She would also like to be able to breath when doing physical activity. Can all this actually be achieved in a single mask?
She is one of those "likes to be prepared early" types so she is looking to order something soon and try it out to see how it fits, etc. We also have no idea how long it may take to ship.
Thanks in advance...

Not mask advice, but this recent article referencing very informative studies from South Korea about fitness classes and spread of COVID should provide valuable insight. Because of SK’s ability to contact trace, they show how transmission accurred through different types of exercise classes. Theory presented is that low intensity classes are less likely to drive transmission due to relaxed breathing whereas high intensity classes pump much more air from the lungs and do so more forcefully, which is likely increasing the ability for the virus to spread. Fascinating, if not sobering, information.

Also, amazing that they could trace COVID cases back to a call center and see the huge difference in transmission on one side of a single floor of a building where workers were closely seated to one another as compared to the other side of the same floor in the same building.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/opini...itz/index.html

[rsvman]

Need some advice here.
Mrs. Nrrrrvous is a dance teacher (ballet, modern, yoga, etc.) and it looks as though she may be trying to teach in-person in late July/August. At least a Yoga class, with students spread 6' apart in a large gymnasium-type room. Once the actual school year starts it could be even closer.
She has asked me to ask the experts on here for mask advice. Can you guys recommend a mask or two that would be good for wearing long hours, that will not slide a lot when moving, and will do a decent job of filtering out/keeping in as much as possible. She would also like to be able to breath when doing physical activity. Can all this actually be achieved in a single mask?
She is one of those "likes to be prepared early" types so she is looking to order something soon and try it out to see how it fits, etc. We also have no idea how long it may take to ship.
Thanks in advance...

I'm not sure that this is such a mask. I feel like cloth coverings are a lot more comfortable, seem to be easier to breathe through, and are definitely easier to wear for extended periods. Since they can also be washed, they could be reused. On the other hand, they don't really filter very well. On the flip side, masks that stay in place and filter very well tend to be extremely uncomfortable for long-term use and hard to breathe through during exercise. (As an aside, I am always looking for a pen that has an EXTREMELY fine line but is smooth, and I don't want a lot of ink flow or darkly saturated color in the line; as you can imagine, the goals are at odds with each other, so such a pen does not exist. So there's a give and take, and I sacrifice a bit on both goals. I think it is going to be the same for masks and face coverings.)

I'm not sure she is going to need a mask that will do everything. Perhaps the best approach is for everybody in the class to wear cloth face coverings. Given that it's yoga, and if it is done in a fairly spacious facility, this might suffice. They would certainly be more comfortable (although from my perspective I have to laugh a little bit at the notion of "comfort" in a yoga class; to me everything they do in that class is supremely uncomfortable, lol).

Sorry I couldn't be more helpful.

[BD80]

Not mask advice, but this recent article referencing very informative studies from South Korea about fitness classes and spread of COVID should provide valuable insight. Because of SK’s ability to contact trace, they show how transmission accurred through different types of exercise classes. Theory presented is that low intensity classes are less likely to drive transmission due to relaxed breathing whereas high intensity classes pump much more air from the lungs and do so more forcefully, which is likely increasing the ability for the virus to spread. Fascinating, if not sobering, information.

Also, amazing that they could trace COVID cases back to a call center and see the huge difference in transmission on one side of a single floor of a building where workers were closely seated to one another as compared to the other side of the same floor in the same building.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/opini...itz/index.html

THANK YOU for posting this. As science gets a handle on this, many things are making sense. I think much of the mistrust of "science" was caused or intensified from early reactions that were just guesses, but few if any bothered to appreciate the disclaimers. Those who initially advised "against" wearing masks (I think was a huge mistake) were focused on whether masks would protect the wearer. The rush to incubate patients led to fatal consequences. Initial CDC tests were flawed (to be generous).

So golf is the perfect sport in theses times - except when I am flailing in a sand trap, hacking through dense rough, or ramming that 4th putt back up onto the top tier of the elevated green. But then, everyone knows to provide me substantial extra social distance in those circumstances.

[Bluedog]

Goldman Sachs is putting out some economic predictions/models, but also contained within their slides is analysis of data of re-opening by state, etc. I personally have not seen this information elsewhere so found it valuable, so thought I'd share. See slides 5 and 6, particularly Graph 2:
https://portaldobitcoin.com/wp-conte..._27May20-1.pdf

I don't think it's necessarily conclusive either way, so one could likely argue what they want to believe, but I like the representation of the data. I am in one of the four "states" (one being DC) still largely shut down. My state is also being very strict on mask wearing for everybody over the age of 2 (including in daycare centers, which have still yet to open).

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Need some advice here.
Mrs. Nrrrrvous is a dance teacher (ballet, modern, yoga, etc.) and it looks as though she may be trying to teach in-person in late July/August. At least a Yoga class, with students spread 6' apart in a large gymnasium-type room. Once the actual school year starts it could be even closer.
She has asked me to ask the experts on here for mask advice. Can you guys recommend a mask or two that would be good for wearing long hours, that will not slide a lot when moving, and will do a decent job of filtering out/keeping in as much as possible. She would also like to be able to breath when doing physical activity. Can all this actually be achieved in a single mask?
She is one of those "likes to be prepared early" types so she is looking to order something soon and try it out to see how it fits, etc. We also have no idea how long it may take to ship.
Thanks in advance...

I have actually stumbled onto a new mask business through my retail store. Sold over 1000 of them the last few weeks to individuals and companies.

We do 100% polyester tube style masks with custom art or logo’s that people seem to much prefer over the surgical masks.
They are relatively thin and breath easier than any other fabric I’ve been able to find.
They also serve as a sun shield, which was their original purpose.
Go to BocaGrandetees.com to check them out. If you want your wife’s business logo on them just send a high resolution email of the logo. No set up fee if we don’t have to manipulate the art. We have a fast turnaround time too.

[Kdogg]

Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought

I think many on this board suspected at least part of this but I have not seen such a low figure that the epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins provides. I know that the antibody tests are 50/50 but it is a promising trend. If we can ramp up national wide testing we can get a clearer understand of this virus and where we stand against it.

[budwom]

Goldman Sachs is putting out some economic predictions/models, but also contained within their slides is analysis of data of re-opening by state, etc. I personally have not seen this information elsewhere so found it valuable, so thought I'd share. See slides 5 and 6, particularly Graph 2:
https://portaldobitcoin.com/wp-conte..._27May20-1.pdf

I don't think it's necessarily conclusive either way, so one could likely argue what they want to believe, but I like the representation of the data. I am in one of the four "states" (one being DC) still largely shut down. My state is also being very strict on mask wearing for everybody over the age of 2 (including in daycare centers, which have still yet to open).

There's a lot of good info and opinion there...though the color coded map of the states can be misleading, vis a vis increasing, steady, or decreasing number of cases...I like looking at the CNN data of the last 14 days by state, five day rolling average...gives a much better picture of the number of cases, e.g. 500/day in some states, five in others...does not look like they expect a quick recovery (financially) which I think is a good prediction...

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought

I think many on this board suspected at least part of this but I have not seen such a low figure that the epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins provides. I know that the antibody tests are 50/50 but it is a promising trend. If we can ramp up national wide testing we can get a clearer understand of this virus and where we stand against it.

It really depends on the antibody test they were using. Some are much better than 50/50. Some are much worse.

[JasonEvans]

I want to point out why certain forces with a -- how do I put this? -- "narrative agenda" are making it difficult for people to do the right thing during this crisis.

Here is the headline from a prominent article on Fox News' website this morning: WHO guidance: Healthy people should wear masks only when 'taking care of' coronavirus patients

I know many people don't bother to read more than the headline of an article, but if they read the first graph it states in unequivocal terms that you do not need to wear a mask unless you are actively taking care of someone who is exhibiting symptoms.

The World Health Organization is recommending healthy people, including those who don't exhibit COVID-19 symptoms, only wear masks when taking care of someone infected with the contagion, a sharp contrast from the advice given by American public health officials who recommend everyone wear a mask in public.

I mean, there you have it. The world's leading body saying don't wear a mask to prevent the spread; don't wear a mask to go shopping; you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a COVID-sick loved one. If you were even thinking about not wearing a mask, this would be all the proof you would need to scoff at the health experts in the US who say otherwise.

As I said, most people only read the headline. A few more read the first graph. It is a much smaller percentage who read even further into the body of the story to discover that the advice being cited by Fox from the WHO comes from a video posted on the WHO website IN FEBRUARY (the Fox article says it was posted in March, but I found the original video and it is marked as posted on 2/29).

Our understanding of the virus, how it is spread, and how it can be contained has advanced light years since late February. But, here is Fox touting it as if it is some new revelation and using it to encourage folks to not wear masks. As most of you know, I am a journalist and this article is journalistic malpractice.

And, as you can probably imagine, many other outlets see it on Fox and just parrot what it has to say, often with disastrous results. The NY Post has copied the Fox story onto their website without changing a word, further spreading this misleading story. Here is a conservative talk radio website that reports the story and omits the fact that the video is months old. It even says the video was posted on the WHO site today. I am sure there are plenty of talk radio talking heads who are speaking about this on their programs and I have no doubt the story (headline only because who clicks and reads the whole thing?!?!) is making its way around Twitter and Facebook today.

I don't know how we, as a society, fight this kind of misinformation. There are millions of Americans who will see this headline today and see it as some new guidance they should follow. Wearing a mask is uncomfortable. Here is a story that allows you to take the easy way and leave your mask behind as you embark out into the world. Woo hoo! Let's go party!!

I discovered all this when a DBR COVID-skeptic emailed the article to me this morning, gleefully encouraging me to post it here to counter some folks who refer to mask skeptics as "covidiots." So, I took a look at discovered how terribly misleading the story was. I have followed his advice though and posted the article... but with the necessary context for all of you to understand why it actually is an important story... though not the story he expected it to be.

Sigh... I want to be clear that I take no joy in this. I just want everyone to be safe and for us to beat the !@#^@&^! out of this virus. Sadly, I think misleading stories like this one make that less and less likely.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I have actually stumbled onto a new mask business through my retail store. Sold over 1000 of them the last few weeks to individuals and companies.

We do 100% polyester tube style masks with custom art or logo’s that people seem to much prefer over the surgical masks.
They are relatively thin and breath easier than any other fabric I’ve been able to find.
They also serve as a sun shield, which was their original purpose.
Go to BocaGrandetees.com to check them out. If you want your wife’s business logo on them just send a high resolution email of the logo. No set up fee if we don’t have to manipulate the art. We have a fast turnaround time too.

Do you have any custom Duke masks? Like maybe one with a blue devil stabbing a ram with his pitchfork? Or Coach K’s face with the letters GOAT? If so, might have to order a couple.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Do you have any custom Duke masks? Like maybe one with a blue devil stabbing a ram with his pitchfork? Or Coach K’s face with the letters GOAT? If so, might have to order a couple.

I second this genius business idea.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I don't know how we, as a society, fight this kind of misinformation.

It's impossible. I combated a FB friend's incorrect post yesterday (she posted a link about how COVID isn't a virus but a bacterium and therefore everything that is being done to fight is wrong) with an article from PolitiFact proving that what she posted was wrong and a hoax.
Immediately under my comment, someone else said "that doesn't mean anything, PolitiFact has been infiltrated".

It's near pointless to even try to argue anymore.

[CDu]

It's impossible. I combated a FB friend's incorrect post yesterday (she posted a link about how COVID isn't a virus but a bacterium and therefore everything that is being done to fight is wrong) with an article from PolitiFact proving that what she posted was wrong and a hoax.
Immediately under my comment, someone else said "that doesn't mean anything, PolitiFact has been infiltrated".

It's near pointless to even try to argue anymore.

Yep. There are plenty of folks who still think this virus is no worse than the flu. And when you point out that (a) there have been over 100,000 deaths already reported in just half of the time of a normal flu season, that (b) that this is likely an UNDERestimate, and that (c) this is in spite of drastic worldwide prevention measures being taken, those people will say that they think the data are being falsified.