PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[aimo]

There was a mild asthma flare seen in clinical trials. This resulted not from the vaccine virus replicating unchecked but rather from the immune response.

Thank you, RSVman, that makes a lot of sense.

By the way, I had the flu when I was in high school and RSV in my 20s. RSV kicked my butt harder and longer than the flu did.

[devildeac]

This is really concerning for those of us trying to get a sense of what is really happening in the country.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...opening-286143



I'm amazed that the politicians doing all this don't understand what needs to happen to get the economy moving. If I see folks without masks on, I won't think it is a safe. If I am not given access to the data, I won't think it is safe. And until I think it is safe, I am not going to resume my normal spending at retail stores, restaurants, entertainment venues, and the such. If even 20% of the country is worried about going out, the economy cannot function as it is supposed to... and there are a lot more than 20% of us who don't think it is safe at this point.

Sigh...

This article is a couple weeks old but an article I read yesterday (that I should have saved; sorry, I'll keep searching) mirrors the questions about the accuracy of death rates/excess death rates/counts both in the US and in Europe. Over-reported? Under-reported? Primary cause of death? Secondary cause of death? It's becoming even more difficult to sort out reliable vs unreliable sources/statements/articles.

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-ne...or-almost-100/

“Belgium has a high mortality rate, we were clearly very badly hit by the virus, from the beginning of March. We are a densely populated country, we have an ageing population, this is clearly reflected in the figures,” said virologist and inter-federal Covid-19 spokesperson Steven Van Gucht during a press conference."

[rsvman]

It's my understanding (very limited) that vaccines work because they prepare your immune system to recognize a threat of a certain type/structure/composition. When the real threat occurs, the immune system can respond more quickly to stamp it out than if it had not previously encountered similar-looking antigens. The vaccine thus "primes" the immune system. A basic Google search of reliable sources should provide further detail.

I'm not quite sure this is the question you asked, though. You asked about quicker recovery and may not have meant avoidance - I guess that could be a gray area. Maybe the mechanism is the same, though - your immune system springing into action to fight the invader.

One last word for all, I can't resist - items sold that promise to "boost your immune system" aren't necessarily good for you, and may cause harm (if they do what they say). A hyperactive immune system is a BAD thing, because it can result in your body attacking itself, not just harmful bacteria and viruses. There's a whole class of diseases and conditions called autoimmune disorders and trust me, you don't want them. Like many bodily functions, a healthy immune system is a balancing act - you don't want one too weak or too strong. So don't try to "boost" it without a clearly identified medical need.

Thankfully, I guess, to my knowledge there has never been any supplement or herb or vitamin known to mankind that has actually been shown to improve the function of the human immune system one iota, with the possible exception of astragalus, which, at least in vitro, appears to improve the function of certain white blood cells. No clinical studies show it has efficacy in the whole organism, however.

The stuff they sell over the counter as "immune boosting" consists almost entirely of herbs, vitamins, etc. that not only have not been shown to work, but in most cases have been proven to NOT work by scientific studies. Furthermore, a not insignificant portion of the supplements you buy at Vitamin Shoppe, GNC, etc., don't even contain the non-functioning ingredients they claim to have in them.

I totally agree with your larger point, though, that, ideally, the immune system should neither be overactive nor underactive.

[devildeac]

But Disney World is planning to reopen on July 11th, so there's that.

Edit to add: And masks will be required of guests ages 3 and older. Good luck!

Anyone think/believe this *might* work:

s-l200.jpg

[BD80]

I've stopped going to stores that don't have signs up on the door requiring face masks. But, flip side, I've become less worried about the spread outdoors. I wear a face mask when I'm walking anywhere near other people, but, I'm planning to start trying to meet with friends for outdoor picnic lunches (bring your own food and blanket) where we can sit at least 6 feet apart. You gotta take the mask off to eat.

Aren't outdoor activities significantly safer? Unlimited air circulation should cause greater dispersal and substantially reduce the chance of encountering a viral load of the virus. This should be particularly true with activities that involve movement.

My understanding that studies show that outdoor transmission has been negligible.

[duke79]

Aren't outdoor activities significantly safer? Unlimited air circulation should cause greater dispersal and substantially reduce the chance of encountering a viral load of the virus. This should be particularly true with activities that involve movement.

My understanding that studies show that outdoor transmission has been negligible.

This is my understanding as well - that it is MUCH harder to contract the virus when you're outdoors, even if you are in the company of someone who is already infected. I'm not sure any studies have confirmed this fact but, intuitively, it does make sense to me. Does anyone on this board have any info to the contrary?

PS: I'm playing golf today at 3:30 PM (EST)!

[MChambers]

This is my understanding as well - that it is MUCH harder to contract the virus when you're outdoors, even if you are in the company of someone who is already infected. I'm not sure any studies have confirmed this fact but, intuitively, it does make sense to me. Does anyone on this board have any info to the contrary?

PS: I'm playing golf today at 3:30 PM (EST)!

Yes, this is my understanding. My one worry is that when you are outside in an area that has a lot of people, even if everyone is 6 feet apart, might it not be possible that you might inhale enough of the virus to contract the disease, just because of the overall amount of people in the area? I didn't phrase this very well, but I hope you know what I mean.

[Rich]

This is my understanding as well - that it is MUCH harder to contract the virus when you're outdoors, even if you are in the company of someone who is already infected. I'm not sure any studies have confirmed this fact but, intuitively, it does make sense to me. Does anyone on this board have any info to the contrary?

PS: I'm playing golf today at 3:30 PM (EST)!

Yes, this is my understanding. My one worry is that when you are outside in an area that has a lot of people, even if everyone is 6 feet apart, might it not be possible that you might inhale enough of the virus to contract the disease, just because of the overall amount of people in the area? I didn't phrase this very well, but I hope you know what I mean.

FWIW, CNN interviewed a woman at the beach over the weekend who said the wind was keeping the virus away.

[rsvman]

This is my understanding as well - that it is MUCH harder to contract the virus when you're outdoors, even if you are in the company of someone who is already infected. I'm not sure any studies have confirmed this fact but, intuitively, it does make sense to me. Does anyone on this board have any info to the contrary?

PS: I'm playing golf today at 3:30 PM (EST)!

Pretty sure you mean EDT, rather than EST, but in any case, have fun! I played last Friday, and several times over the past month. I believe golf to be safe provided nobody touches the flagstick, bunker rakes have been removed, ball washers taken out of commission, and no water supplied is supplied on the course.

My local course will only take tee times, only allows one person per cart (exception, other family members), put rings up around the holes so the ball doesn't drop into a hole at all, removed rakes, and covered all the ball washers with bags. I have taken the extra precaution of not using any broken tees that I find on the ground, even though that is probably safe. For par 3s, I use a shorter tee that I bring with me rather than just grabbing a broken tee, which is my usual practice.

Enjoy your round.

[MChambers]

FWIW, CNN interviewed a woman at the beach over the weekend who said the wind was keeping the virus away.

To be fair, I think the wind probably typically disperses the virus so that you're unlikely to get a big enough dose to become infected. But if you're at a beach or other location with lots of people, it seems to me there could be some risk. I haven't seen anything to prove this, however.

[CameronBornAndBred]

To be fair, I think the wind probably typically disperses the virus so that you're unlikely to get a big enough dose to become infected. But if you're at a beach or other location with lots of people, it seems to me there could be some risk. I haven't seen anything to prove this, however.

For the most part you are probably right, but isn't "a big enough dose" just a microscopic droplet?

[Tripping William]

Pretty sure you mean EDT, rather than EST, but in any case, have fun! I played last Friday, and several times over the past month. I believe golf to be safe provided nobody touches the flagstick, bunker rakes have been removed, ball washers taken out of commission, and no water supplied is supplied on the course.

My local course will only take tee times, only allows one person per cart (exception, other family members), put rings up around the holes so the ball doesn't drop into a hole at all, removed rakes, and covered all the ball washers with bags. I have taken the extra precaution of not using any broken tees that I find on the ground, even though that is probably safe. For par 3s, I use a shorter tee that I bring with me rather than just grabbing a broken tee, which is my usual practice.

Enjoy your round.

Glad to have your professional opinion validate my own intuition. Especially on this subject. The only thing I'll add is that we carry a bleach wipe or two with us, and wipe things (golf balls, in particular) with some regularity. Junior tournament golf has also recommenced in NC with some additional restrictions, including limits on the amount of time on the driving range and putting green, no handling scorecards (they are either pre-printed by the golfer, or scores are kept via mobile app), and no awards ceremonies. Much of the "social" aspect of golf has been removed, but that (IMO) is a small price to pay under the circumstances.

[El_Diablo]

To be fair, I think the wind probably typically disperses the virus so that you're unlikely to get a big enough dose to become infected. But if you're at a beach or other location with lots of people, it seems to me there could be some risk. I haven't seen anything to prove this, however.

Yeah, the Arkansas governor just pointed to a high school pool party that was identified as a source of infection for several people. A soccer match in Milan was identified as a likely source of a huge number of early cases (with journalists, local fans, visiting fans and 35% of the visiting team becoming sick within the next couple weeks).

Wind dispersal certainly sounds intuitive, but it's not like the wind will always just be blowing the virus up 30 feet into the air and then spreading it out in random directions before it can be inhaled. It could just mean that the virus is moving a slightly farther distance before ending up in your nostrils if you are standing downwind of someone who is sick.

[duke79]

Pretty sure you mean EDT, rather than EST, but in any case, have fun! I played last Friday, and several times over the past month. I believe golf to be safe provided nobody touches the flagstick, bunker rakes have been removed, ball washers taken out of commission, and no water supplied is supplied on the course.

My local course will only take tee times, only allows one person per cart (exception, other family members), put rings up around the holes so the ball doesn't drop into a hole at all, removed rakes, and covered all the ball washers with bags. I have taken the extra precaution of not using any broken tees that I find on the ground, even though that is probably safe. For par 3s, I use a shorter tee that I bring with me rather than just grabbing a broken tee, which is my usual practice.

Enjoy your round.

Yea, I live right on the MA/NY state line, so I'm playing over in NY state this afternoon (and thanks, it is 3:30 PM "EDT". My bad!). All of the courses in MA, NY, and CT pretty much follow the same rules you outline above. No touching the flagstick, one person to a cart, no water or sand trap rakes on the course, raised cup, etc. I hadn't thought about not using a broken tee on a par 3 but I'll try to remember. It seems a little foreign to me but it is still, more or less, "golf". And it beats sitting in front of my computer working!!

[Bostondevil]

Aren't outdoor activities significantly safer? Unlimited air circulation should cause greater dispersal and substantially reduce the chance of encountering a viral load of the virus. This should be particularly true with activities that involve movement.

My understanding that studies show that outdoor transmission has been negligible.

Yes, that's why I'm hoping to have picnic lunches with my friends!

[MChambers]

For the most part you are probably right, but isn't "a big enough dose" just a microscopic droplet?

I don't think so. From the Erin Bromage piece that's been posted here a few times:

"In order to get infected you need to get exposed to an infectious dose of the virus; based on infectious dose studies with other coronaviruses, it appears that only small doses may be needed for infection to take hold. Some experts estimate that as few as 1000 SARS-CoV2 infectious viral particles are all that will be needed (ref 1, ref 2). Please note, this still needs to be determined experimentally, but we can use that number to demonstrate how infection can occur. Infection could occur, through 1000 infectious viral particles you receive in one breath or from one eye-rub, or 100 viral particles inhaled with each breath over 10 breaths, or 10 viral particles with 100 breaths. Each of these situations can lead to an infection."

****

"If I am outside, and I walk past someone, remember it is “dose and time” needed for infection. You would have to be in their airstream for 5+ minutes for a chance of infection. "

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them

[rsvman]

For the most part you are probably right, but isn't "a big enough dose" just a microscopic droplet?

Potentially. I don't know if this is common knowledge or not, but viruses are actually submicroscopic. Meaning that they cannot be seen by the human eye with a light microscope.

Respiratory viruses have an infectious dose, and it varies from virus to virus. You wouldn't get infected by inhaling a single virion (that's the singular of virus). The Bromage piece that has been linked several times suggests, however, a very small infectious dose of perhaps even only a thousand virions.

The numbers of replication-competent virus being shed by an infected person could and probably does vary widely, likely to be much higher in people who are very sick, and certainly the numbers of viruses that get into the air is higher when a person sneezes or coughs than when he/she just speaks or laughs.

In other words, there are a lot of variables.


The thing that makes transmission less likely in outdoor areas is not that the virus is being "swept away" by wind currents, but that the virus is being "diluted" by the large volume of air in the surroundings, or "dispersed" into a much larger volume, if you will. Think about putting a couple of drops of red food dye into an 8-ounce glass of water versus putting the same amount of dye into an Olympic size swimming pool, and you will get an idea about why infection is less likely (though certainly not impossible) outdoors.

[freshmanjs]

Sorry, but I have to correct this. There was never a time anyone could have gotten the flu from the flu vaccine. Full stop.

Yes, there was a live virus vaccine at one point, which, by the way, is still available (it came back). No, it was not possible to get the flu from the live virus vaccine. It was highly, and I mean highly attenuated. The attenuation was ridiculously stable. There has never, ever been a case of anybody getting the flu from the live attenuated flu vaccine. Not in the entire world. Ever.

Your post also makes it sound as if early flu vaccines were live but then were switched to killed. Truth is that the killed vaccine has been in use from the beginning, a company invented the live attenuated one and marketed it starting in the early 2000s, it was briefly "not recommended" by the ACIP (not because it caused flu but because for a year or two there were efficacy issues with regard to a single strain), and now it is back.

Thanks for this info. In that case, do you know why my daughter's GIs would be so adamant that she cannot have the attenuated version while on Humira? Is that just unnecessary caution? Thanks

[rsvman]

Thanks for this info. In that case, do you know why my daughter's GIs would be so adamant that she cannot have the attenuated version while on Humira? Is that just unnecessary caution? Thanks

Because it has not been studied in that population. We actually participated in a trial in which we gave the vaccine to children with HIV infection. The original plan was to give it to HIV-infected patients with normal CD4 counts and then, if it was safe and effective, move next to patients with counts that suggested moderate immune suppression.

It worked great and was perfectly safe in HIV-infected people with normal CD4 counts. The company never pressed on with expanding to moderately suppressed individuals, presumably because there was no foreseeable good return on an enormous investment.

[devildeac]

Glad to have your professional opinion validate my own intuition. Especially on this subject. The only thing I'll add is that we carry a bleach wipe or two with us, and wipe things (golf balls, in particular) with some regularity. Junior tournament golf has also recommenced in NC with some additional restrictions, including limits on the amount of time on the driving range and putting green, no handling scorecards (they are either pre-printed by the golfer, or scores are kept via mobile app), and no awards ceremonies. Much of the "social" aspect of golf has been removed, but that (IMO) is a small price to pay under the circumstances.

Pint of ale in the parking lot after the tournament? Low/session ABV, of course (tees it up for TW...).