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  1. #3301
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    What is frightening about Georgia is that they have done the fourth fewest tests in the nation (as measured per capita).
    Perhaps the governor is planning a beach hospital or two?

  2. #3302
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Ever fish for rooster fish?
    You gotta get up pretty early for that.

  3. #3303
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    No beer for DD? Blasphemy.
    Read carefully. I said limit alcohol and did not say abstain . Haven't been to the Rockies to ski for almost a decade I'd guess. Heck, haven't been much of anywhere during that time to ski. I'd have a beer with dinner or (not "and") at bedtime when we'd be in the lodge for the evening/night. I'd guess I'd easily have about 96 ounces of water during our days at elevations like that and 12-16 ounces of beer.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  4. #3304
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Read carefully. I said limit alcohol and did not say abstain . Haven't been to the Rockies to ski for almost a decade I'd guess. Heck, haven't been much of anywhere during that time to ski. I'd have a beer with dinner or (not "and") at bedtime when we'd be in the lodge for the evening/night. I'd guess I'd easily have about 96 ounces of water during our days at elevations like that and 12-16 ounces of beer.
    Keith Richards tells the story of a show in Brazil on an absurdly scorching hot day. Jagger kept telling the band in sound check, and before the show, that they all needed to hydrate seriously.

    “Dammit Mick,” Keef finally snapped, “I’ll put some bloody ice cubes in my whiskey if you’ll just STF up!”

  5. #3305
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by BigWayne View Post
    Come fishing with me in the Pacific Ocean and you will see how much exercise it is.
    I wouldn't do much fishing as most of my time would be hanging over the side of the boat. What little fishing I've done has been off piers on the NC coast. I'll stick to golfing with my church buddies. We have a foursome that has been playing together on Monday for around 7 or 8 years now. More story telling and how we used to play than real golf. It's all about the fellowship.

    GoDuke!
    Last edited by jv001; 04-08-2020 at 07:49 AM.

  6. #3306
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Toronto
    I don’t want to get into this too deeply since it probably belongs more in the off topic board, but regarding the vaccine timeline: the 12-18 months that keeps being reported is EXTREMELY ambitious and would be the fastest a vaccine has been produced in history by far. That’s not to say it can’t be done. But from a scientific standpoint there are elements of the “testing” that just can’t be sped up no matter how much time and money you put into the problem.

    There are ways I could foresee the world starting to get back to normal before a vaccine is developed if we keep attacking the problem aggressively (some sort of effective anti-viral treatment may be more feasible in the shorter term, and if aggressive social distancing works combined with enhanced testing it’s possible to start “tracking” cases once the numbers drop). But don’t put all your hopes on a vaccine.

  7. #3307
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Read carefully. I said limit alcohol and did not say abstain . Haven't been to the Rockies to ski for almost a decade I'd guess. Heck, haven't been much of anywhere during that time to ski. I'd have a beer with dinner or (not "and") at bedtime when we'd be in the lodge for the evening/night. I'd guess I'd easily have about 96 ounces of water during our days at elevations like that and 12-16 ounces of beer.
    I lived for a number of years at about 6,200 feet and above and traveled all over the country on business and pleasure trips and never had any type of problem. All my pneumonia's (about 5) happened while living between 400' and 10' above sea level.

  8. #3308
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    I don’t want to get into this too deeply since it probably belongs more in the off topic board, but regarding the vaccine timeline: the 12-18 months that keeps being reported is EXTREMELY ambitious and would be the fastest a vaccine has been produced in history by far. That’s not to say it can’t be done. But from a scientific standpoint there are elements of the “testing” that just can’t be sped up no matter how much time and money you put into the problem.

    There are ways I could foresee the world starting to get back to normal before a vaccine is developed if we keep attacking the problem aggressively (some sort of effective anti-viral treatment may be more feasible in the shorter term, and if aggressive social distancing works combined with enhanced testing it’s possible to start “tracking” cases once the numbers drop). But don’t put all your hopes on a vaccine.
    Testing, and maybe more importantly tracking, as you say, and all the privacy concerns that carries with it.

    Good Atlantic article on test and track

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...htmare/609577/

  9. #3309
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    I lived for a number of years at about 6,200 feet and above and traveled all over the country on business and pleasure trips and never had any type of problem. All my pneumonia's (about 5) happened while living between 400' and 10' above sea level.
    Humans more contagious than moose, deer and elk and other all-terrain four-legged species?
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  10. #3310
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    I'm beginning to think that my nose and eyes only itch while I'm shopping.

  11. #3311
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC

    Remdesivir

    Haven't been allowed to talk about his until now, but here at our Pharmaceutical Services Group, we're making Remdesivir using existing API's. Remdesivir has shown great promise in the battle against Covid-19. If we include what we have already produced, we have enough API to produce 1.5 million doses and we're working around the clock to get it done. Those 1.5 million doses will be donated where they are most needed.

    https://www.gilead.com/stories/artic...airman-and-ceo

  12. #3312
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The models aren't doing what you think they are doing. They are taking the data that is given and adjusting UPwards to account for data that are missed simply by looking at hospital records and death certificates. So while the current data may be wrong, they are going to be HIGHER than what is currently being reported once folks model it out in 2-3 years.
    Let me try this just one more time.

    There is a term widely used in epidemiology called “excess mortality,” sometimes called “excess deaths,” or “mortality displacement.” If you google it you will find many references. The purpose is to estimate the number of deaths caused by heat waves, bad influenza seasons, wars, etc. The concern is that death certificates may not properly list the true instrumental cause of death. The word “excess” refers to the excess number of deaths over and above the number that would have been expected during that period normally, due to all other causes. The purpose, therefore, is to determine how many people would have still been alive but for the event in question. A clear description can be found here: Observations on Excess Mortality Associated with Epidemic Influenza, which says: “The most sensitive statistical measure of the extent of an influenza epidemic is the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in excess of the usual seasonal expectancy.”

    Often, such a calculation will result in a total that is higher than the total calculated by adding up the death certificates listing the target cause of death. However, starting with the total number of deaths during the period in question and subtracting from it a number that includes the number of people who would have died of other diseases or of old age during that period results in a difference that is intended to exclude the number of people who would have died of other diseases or of old age during that period.

    Such a death total is considered useful since it is the “but for” number, and when the current pandemic is over such a calculation will be performed and that number will be attributed to Covid-19.

    I think that’s all I have to say on this topic. Thanks for the discussion.

  13. #3313
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    No summer wane

    A report by the National Academies of Science says the coronavirus is unlikely to wane in the summer: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...s-panel-finds/

  14. #3314
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    A report by the National Academies of Science says the coronavirus is unlikely to wane in the summer: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...s-panel-finds/
    ouch, not good news if it proves to be true...OTOH maybe it will help us keep our eye on the ball, i.e. not get overconfident were the virus to temporarily wane in the summer.

  15. #3315
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post
    Let me try this just one more time.

    There is a term widely used in epidemiology called “excess mortality,” sometimes called “excess deaths,” or “mortality displacement.” If you google it you will find many references. The purpose is to estimate the number of deaths caused by heat waves, bad influenza seasons, wars, etc. The concern is that death certificates may not properly list the true instrumental cause of death. The word “excess” refers to the excess number of deaths over and above the number that would have been expected during that period normally, due to all other causes. The purpose, therefore, is to determine how many people would have still been alive but for the event in question. A clear description can be found here: Observations on Excess Mortality Associated with Epidemic Influenza, which says: “The most sensitive statistical measure of the extent of an influenza epidemic is the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in excess of the usual seasonal expectancy.”

    Often, such a calculation will result in a total that is higher than the total calculated by adding up the death certificates listing the target cause of death. However, starting with the total number of deaths during the period in question and subtracting from it a number that includes the number of people who would have died of other diseases or of old age during that period results in a difference that is intended to exclude the number of people who would have died of other diseases or of old age during that period.

    Such a death total is considered useful since it is the “but for” number, and when the current pandemic is over such a calculation will be performed and that number will be attributed to Covid-19.

    I think that’s all I have to say on this topic. Thanks for the discussion.
    I've heard many people having this same discussion/argument at work and at home. When the topic comes up, I like to quote Archie Bunker when he was discussing gun control with Gloria...

    "Would it make you feel any better, little girl, if they was pushed outta windows?"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzFWRPiNXOI

  16. #3316
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    I've heard many people having this same discussion/argument at work and at home. When the topic comes up, I like to quote Archie Bunker when he was discussing gun control with Gloria...

    "Would it make you feel any better, little girl, if they was pushed outta windows?"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzFWRPiNXOI
    Here's OPK's opening to talk about his love of the word "defenestration" . . . . . .
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  17. #3317
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    ouch, not good news if it proves to be true...OTOH maybe it will help us keep our eye on the ball, i.e. not get overconfident were the virus to temporarily wane in the summer.
    I've always thought the "it will regress in summer" position was wildly optimistic.

  18. #3318
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    I'm beginning to think that my nose and eyes only itch while I'm shopping.
    Or, when your wife is shopping...

    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  19. #3319
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by swood1000 View Post
    Let me try this just one more time.

    There is a term widely used in epidemiology called “excess mortality,” sometimes called “excess deaths,” or “mortality displacement.” If you google it you will find many references. The purpose is to estimate the number of deaths caused by heat waves, bad influenza seasons, wars, etc. The concern is that death certificates may not properly list the true instrumental cause of death. The word “excess” refers to the excess number of deaths over and above the number that would have been expected during that period normally, due to all other causes. The purpose, therefore, is to determine how many people would have still been alive but for the event in question. A clear description can be found here: Observations on Excess Mortality Associated with Epidemic Influenza, which says: “The most sensitive statistical measure of the extent of an influenza epidemic is the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in excess of the usual seasonal expectancy.”

    Often, such a calculation will result in a total that is higher than the total calculated by adding up the death certificates listing the target cause of death. However, starting with the total number of deaths during the period in question and subtracting from it a number that includes the number of people who would have died of other diseases or of old age during that period results in a difference that is intended to exclude the number of people who would have died of other diseases or of old age during that period.

    Such a death total is considered useful since it is the “but for” number, and when the current pandemic is over such a calculation will be performed and that number will be attributed to Covid-19.

    I think that’s all I have to say on this topic. Thanks for the discussion.
    Yes. Excess mortality is a useful term. But it's a useful term for something else. To the point, they won't be downgrading the deaths associated with COVID. They will only upgrade that number (or in a best-case scenario hold it as the current counts). They first estimate the number of deaths associated with a condition. That's the number that you'll see on most burden sites, and it is what is presented by the CDC for flu. They can then take that information and model out the excess mortality in a given year. But that's a separate thing.

    You seemed to be implying that the counts being reported could potentially be reduced "like they do with flu." They don't do that with flu. For excess deaths, they do a separate calculation using the deaths data (adjusted for underreporting) and then adjusting downward for expected natural death. But that number is not the death count (which averages ~35,000 per year over the last decade) nor the case fatality rate (~0.1%) being reported by the CDC for flu. Similarly, the deaths associated with COVID are going to be presented comparably to what we're seeing - and they'll almost certainly be higher than the currently presented counts when the CDC goes back in the next couple of years and estimates the number of missed nonhospitalized deaths.

    The "excess mortality" due to COVID will be lower, just like the "excess mortality" due to flu is lower than the ~35,000 deaths associated with flu estimated currently. But, again, that is a different number, for a different purpose.

    If you are meaning something different, then that's fine. Not sure what the utility is of whatever that is necessarily, but it's fine.

  20. #3320
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    Here's OPK's opening to talk about his love of the word "defenestration" . . . . . .
    Now my day has been made!!

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