Originally Posted by
rsvman
Still not that concerned.
Here's what we know about coronaviruses in general, which have been circulating in the United States for decades.
1) Unlike influenza, coronaviruses are spread in "large droplets," rather than "droplet nuclei." Large droplets are heavy enough that when expelled (for example by coughing or sneezing) they fall within six feet. I think it is unlikely that a virus that spreads in this fashion could ever infect as large a proportion of the U.S. population as influenza does (about 15% each year).
2) Coronaviruses are enveloped viruses. Without the envelope they are not contagious. This means that their ability to survive outside the host is time limited, as they become dessicated over time. It also means that the virus is easy to inactivate with cleaning solutions/solvents, etc., which disrupt the virus envelope. By way of contrast, rhinovirus (one of the most common causes of common cold) is non-enveloped, can survive for days outside the host, and is more difficult to inactivate on inanimate objects.
So, if this thing starts to spread, it will spread like parainfluenza, RSV, or a rhinovirus, not like influenza virus or measles virus (both of the latter are spread in droplet nuclei). Transmission of paraflu, RSV, rhino, and likely the novel coronavirus is often via the hands touching the nose, mouth, or eyes, rather than by inhaling the air (obviously it can be contracted by breathing, but one would have to be in the very near vicinity of an infected person when said person coughs or sneezes). It is more likely that it would be contracted because people blow their noses or sneeze or cough into their hands, and then don't sanitize or wash their hands. They then touch something, like a table or a door handle, and the next person who touches the door handle (for example) gets the virus on their hands and then inoculates themselves by rubbing or touching their eyes or their nose. An effective way to spread, yes, but not nearly as effective as what influenza and measles do.
Masks are likely to be somewhat helpful, but viruses can get through dust masks and surgical masks, and they can get AROUND N95 masks. In the hospital setting, personnel are "fit tested" for N95 masks. They come in multiple different designs, some of which work with some faces and some of which work for others. Personally, I had to try 4 masks before I found one that actually created the proper "air seal" to make it effective. So if you are buying N95 masks off the internet, they may or may not fit you, which means they may or may not be protective. Just FYI.
In my opinion, a better way to protect oneself would be to do the following:
1) Avoid places with lots of people
2) Avoid people who are sick
3) Wash your hands or Purell frequently
4) Keep your hands away from your face as much as you possibly can (this is difficult, as most people touch their faces many times an hour and are not even aware that they are doing it; it requires conscious awareness to do this, but it is possible if you put your mind to it)
People who are sick with respiratory viruses (coronavirus or otherwise), should do the following:
1) Cough into the crook of the elbow, not into the hands
2) Purell or wash your hands immediately after blowing your nose
3) Use separate hand towels or use paper towels (in other words, don't use communal or shared hand towels)
4) use Clorox wipes to wipe down door handles frequently
5) If you use a TV remote or your phone, you should be the only one using it until you are well. Same goes for computers. Keep your hands to yourself, keep your devices to yourself, keep your mucus to yourself
In short, I don't think this is going to be at all like the 1918 flu pandemic, even if it begins to spread throughout the U.S., because it will spread like a common cold. It will obviously be much more severe than a common cold, especially in those with risk factors, but it won't/can't learn to spread like flu, so I don't see any way it could possibly infect 15-20% of the U.S. population. The vast majority of people infected will survive. I suspect the true mortality rate in the US will be closer to 0.5% than 2%, even it does become fairly widespread.
So, not buying masks, not taking home an N95 from work, not hoarding food, not panicking. I'll let y'all know if that changes.