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  1. #141
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Death toll tops 1000. That's the big story this morning.

    Still, total cases over 40,000, which means that the mortality rate is settling in to about 2.5%, which, although still really high in comparison with other respiratory viruses, is lower than originally thought. All but two deaths have been in China.
    The problem here is...the 40,000 total cases are a lot of folks still sick and not yet recovered. More of a concern is that 6,500 cases are listed as severe (requiring hospitalization). That's over 15% of those sick needing medical care. I also have ZERO faith that China is reporting anything close to accurate numbers. Hospitals are capacity constrained and I believe testing is capacity constrained. If you get sick and/or die without a test, you aren't showing up in the statistics.

    We'll know much more from the folks on the Plague ship in a few weeks.

    Something to think about...

    THREE WEEKS AGO:
    282 cases and 6 deaths
    4 Outside of China

    TWO WEEKS AGO:
    4593 Cases
    976 Severe
    106 Deaths
    56 cases outside of China

    ONE WEEK AGO:
    20630 Cases
    2788 Severe
    425 deaths
    159 cases outside of China (1 death)

    TODAY:
    40552 Cases
    6484 Severe
    909 Deaths
    319 Cases outside of China (1 death)

    Numbers taken from WHO Situation reports. https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ation-reports/

    I really have no faith that this is even close to contained. 2.5% mortality rate would be devastating the way this is spreading.

  2. #142
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Ö

    We'll know much more from the folks on the Plague ship in a few weeks.

    ...
    I can't see that working out well.

    Apparently, the crew is stuck working and eating together in very tight quarters, and have been falling victim to the virus at an accelerated rate. These are the people preparing and delivering the food to the quarantined passengers.

  3. #143
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    I can't see that working out well.

    Apparently, the crew is stuck working and eating together in very tight quarters, and have been falling victim to the virus at an accelerated rate. These are the people preparing and delivering the food to the quarantined passengers.
    Don't worry, I heard everyone is getting a refund and a free cruise of similar value in the future. Everything is okay.

  4. #144
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post

    We'll know much more from the folks on the Plague ship in a few weeks.
    Plague ship is a Cussler novel. I think there's an opportunity for a cruise-based reboot.

  5. #145
    For those not following this particular story, of the 200+ people being held in quarantine at MCAS Miramar (featured in Top Gun) in San Diego, around 5 or so were taken to local hospitals for suspected infection with the new coronavirus.

    One was discharged Sunday, only for folks to discover that the patient was infected after all. The patient returned to the hospital on Monday. Basically, hospital staff in San Diego thought that everyone had tested negative, but that was not right. Several of the samples were not tested at all, because they were not labeled just so. Well, one came back positive when it was tested.

    Here is the story: https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...-hospital-exit
    Carolina delenda est

  6. #146
    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    The Beach
    I have been following everything via the Johns Hopkins map I shared in an earlier post. I want numbers and facts, not the sensationalism that I feel is spun into stories about the virus. I also feel we don't get the complete picture, instead we get the numbers that generate clicks (# infected and # of deaths). When the recovery rate has actually far surpassed the death rate, yet that is rarely mentioned.

    Here is the map again, which is a great wealth of information - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

  7. #147
    Quote Originally Posted by BeachBlueDevil View Post
    When the recovery rate has actually far surpassed the death rate, yet that is rarely mentioned.
    Even a 95% recovery rate far surpasses a 5% death rate...but a 5% death rate is worthy of sensationalism

  8. #148
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by BeachBlueDevil View Post
    I have been following everything via the Johns Hopkins map I shared in an earlier post. I want numbers and facts, not the sensationalism that I feel is spun into stories about the virus. I also feel we don't get the complete picture, instead we get the numbers that generate clicks (# infected and # of deaths). When the recovery rate has actually far surpassed the death rate, yet that is rarely mentioned.

    Here is the map again, which is a great wealth of information - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6
    If you believe the numbers reported by China and represented in that map are "facts," then I've got some waterfront property to sell you...

    And, as pointed out, this could be the worst disease in the history of mankind and still have "recovery rate far surpassing death rate"

  9. #149
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by freshmanjs View Post
    If you believe the numbers reported by China and represented in that map are "facts," then I've got some waterfront property to sell you...

    And, as pointed out, this could be the worst disease in the history of mankind and still have "recovery rate far surpassing death rate"
    Your last sentence is demonstrably not true. Ebola virus disease has a death rate that is generally marginally higher than its recovery rate (in some outbreaks, death rate approached 90%); Marburg virus has about a45% mortality rate, which also is nowhere near a recovery rate that "far surpasses" its death rate.

    Good news this morning was that numbers of cases seemed to reach a bit of a plateau, which could be a temporary victory or it could signal the end of the rapid expansion phase of the epidemic.



    Still not thinking this is going to end up being a global plague.
    A plane takes off from Baltimore and touches down on Bourbon Street

  10. #150
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
    Having done some modeling of such situations and really the fatality rate is not a particularly crucial factor. Itís more about the transmissibility of the disease thatís crucial. If only 1% of cases are fatal, but the average person will infect 50 others before recovering, it still ends up being an absolute catastrophe. Meanwhile a disease thatís 90% fatal, but usually only transmits to maybe 2 people before recovery/death doesnít present nearly the same level of problem. Yeah it sucks to be one who catches it, but hardly anyone will. Whereas in the first example, most of the community will get the disease and even a 1% fatality rate will end up greater. Obviously thereís vast simplifying going on there, but the point still holds.

  11. #151
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Princeton, NJ
    Quote Originally Posted by Deslok View Post
    Having done some modeling of such situations and really the fatality rate is not a particularly crucial factor. Itís more about the transmissibility of the disease thatís crucial. If only 1% of cases are fatal, but the average person will infect 50 others before recovering, it still ends up being an absolute catastrophe. Meanwhile a disease thatís 90% fatal, but usually only transmits to maybe 2 people before recovery/death doesnít present nearly the same level of problem. Yeah it sucks to be one who catches it, but hardly anyone will. Whereas in the first example, most of the community will get the disease and even a 1% fatality rate will end up greater. Obviously thereís vast simplifying going on there, but the point still holds.

    This really depends on the numbers. Both factors matter. You can have a virus with very low mortality rate that spreads like wildfire. Not a huge problem.

    Yes if you restrict fatality rates to 1% or higher then transmission rate becomes the dominant factor. But 1% is very high.

    If there is enough transmission to make the disease pandemic or endemic then the fatality rate becomes hugely important.

  12. #152
    Quote Originally Posted by freshmanjs View Post
    If there is enough transmission to make the disease pandemic or endemic then the fatality rate becomes hugely important.
    I would argue the severity rate becomes even more important. How quickly will an areas medical system become overwhelmed and folks that would survive with proper medical care begin to die because adequate medical care is not available. I'm not sure if it's been long enough for the cases outside of China to recover in significant numbers, but the mortality rate outside of China appears to be lower. Either that's because of better reporting (more accurate case count, therefore it's not as lethal) or that the few cases distributed around the world have their country's full medical resources and attention as they work to learn and combat this.

    Imagine if you will, 500 people get sick in the Triangle and 20% of them become severe cases needing hospitalization. Are there 100 spare ICU beds in the Triangle? What if 1,000 people get sick and 200 need hospitalization? What is 10,000 get sick and 2,000 need a bed? You can quickly see the problem. It's not how many will this kill with the best medical care, it's how many can this kill with poor to no medical care. This is why I think the world is sleeping on this problem. I'm not trying to fear monger, or spread rumors. I just want folks to think about the risks if this does turn into a pandemic.

  13. #153
    Ugh, Hubei (the state? province?) where Wuhan is just added 14,000+ new cases and 250+ deaths today...have they been under reporting and been made to true up the numbers, or did things just blow up?

  14. #154
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Correct side of the Durham/CH border
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I would argue the severity rate becomes even more important. How quickly will an areas medical system become overwhelmed and folks that would survive with proper medical care begin to die because adequate medical care is not available. I'm not sure if it's been long enough for the cases outside of China to recover in significant numbers, but the mortality rate outside of China appears to be lower. Either that's because of better reporting (more accurate case count, therefore it's not as lethal) or that the few cases distributed around the world have their country's full medical resources and attention as they work to learn and combat this.

    Imagine if you will, 500 people get sick in the Triangle and 20% of them become severe cases needing hospitalization. Are there 100 spare ICU beds in the Triangle? What if 1,000 people get sick and 200 need hospitalization? What is 10,000 get sick and 2,000 need a bed? You can quickly see the problem. It's not how many will this kill with the best medical care, it's how many can this kill with poor to no medical care. This is why I think the world is sleeping on this problem. I'm not trying to fear monger, or spread rumors. I just want folks to think about the risks if this does turn into a pandemic.
    I assume the government/military would step in to provide support via field hospitals, etc., if it came to that.
    ďCoach said no 3s.Ē - Zion on The Block

  15. #155
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    I assume the government/military would step in to provide support via field hospitals, etc., if it came to that.
    Let's hope so.

    Another 44 cases on the cruise ship, Diamond Princess bringing the total up to 218 out of 3500 passengers. The quarantine continues. I can't even imagine what it's like on that ship.

  16. #156
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Ugh, Hubei (the state? province?) where Wuhan is just added 14,000+ new cases and 250+ deaths today...have they been under reporting and been made to true up the numbers, or did things just blow up?
    They changed the case definition. Previously they were reporting only those with laboratory evidence of the virus. Now they are reporting those with clinical symptoms.

  17. #157
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    No need to hangout on a ship. Head on down to your local Air Force base and see how many people thay have there being quaratined.

    91 at the AFB 8 miles from my house.
    They confirmed the first case among those 91 this morning.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  18. #158
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    They changed the case definition. Previously they were reporting only those with laboratory evidence of the virus. Now they are reporting those with clinical symptoms.
    Are there any clinical symptoms that actually distinguish corona from the many other flu strains out there?

  19. #159
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    Are there any clinical symptoms that actually distinguish corona from the many other flu strains out there?
    Not to my knowledge, but there may be features that are suggestive.


    In a related example, influenza tends to produce an illness that seems at least somewhat clinically distinguishable from illness produced by rhinovirus, RSV, parainfluenza viruses, and other respiratory viruses that co-circulate with it. Once the flu season is in full force, physicians will often assign the diagnosis of "influenza-like illness" without confirmatory testing. Clinically this approach seems to work pretty well. However, when this has been formally studied, it has been found to fail quite a bit, despite physicians' belief that they can clearly distinguish influenza from the "common cold."


    In an outbreak situation like this one, however, broadening the definition to include a clinical description, although not likely to be as accurate, is probably helpful in containing the outbreak, as the new definition of the illness is broader and thus more likely to include more people actually suffering from the disease. It may also identify people who have other illnesses that are not COVID19, but that will only inconvenience the individuals thus falsely identified; it will not have a negative effect on containing the virus. In other words, it is preferable to use a diagnostic rubric that is overly sensitive rather than one that is specific, when trying to contain an outbreak.
    A plane takes off from Baltimore and touches down on Bourbon Street

  20. #160
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    In other words, it is preferable to use a diagnostic rubric that is overly sensitive rather than one that is specific, when trying to contain an outbreak.
    Makes good sense to me. Thanks for the knowledge drop.

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