Page 9 of 136 FirstFirst ... 78910111959109 ... LastLast
Results 161 to 180 of 2705
  1. #161
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lynchburg, VA
    Researchers at Los Alamos estimate that COVID-19’s R0 value is much higher than initially thought, somewhere between 4.7 and 6.6. They conclude that quarantining and contact tracing symptomatic patients is unlikely to be enough to prevent a pandemic.

  2. #162
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by mph View Post
    Researchers at Los Alamos estimate that COVID-19’s R0 value is much higher than initially thought, somewhere between 4.7 and 6.6. They conclude that quarantining and contact tracing symptomatic patients is unlikely to be enough to prevent a pandemic.
    "Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6."


    Two to three times as pathogenic as originally estimated. Ruh, roh.


    Los Alamos knows what they're doing, they have aliens working there.

  3. #163
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Are the aliens immune to COVID-19? Just curious.
    A plane takes off from Baltimore and touches down on Bourbon Street

  4. #164
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Are the aliens immune to COVID-19? Just curious.
    They're probably wearing their spacesuits.

  5. #165
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Los Alamos knows what they're doing, they have aliens working there.
    I worked on a project a couple decades ago trying to develop a technology invented at Los Alamos. It wasn't robust enough in the "wild" to work.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  6. #166
    A couple of coronavirus deaths so far in Iran... What's weird is that they were in the city of Qoms, which apparently does not have an international airport. What's also weird is that there were no known cases of coronavirus before these deaths.

    So if you've got 2 deaths and a mortality rate of 2%, that would suggest ~100 cases of completely untracked coronavirus victims going about their business in Iran.

  7. #167
    Up to 8 deaths now in Iran, many more cases. Qom getting put into military lockdown.

    Woman in Canada diagnosed with recent travel history to Iran.

    https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-s-new-coro...iran-1.4821112

  8. #168
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    More than 200 cases in South Korea

    NPR story on the South Korea outbreak, and also outbreaks in Chinese prisons. https://www.npr.org/2020/02/21/80800...in-south-korea

  9. #169
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Without any particular expertise in this area, it strikes me that the scariest aspect of this is the continued uncertainty. China apparently changed their counting method again so, while I had no doubt we weren't getting real number out of China to begin with, it just seems like we don't have a real handle on the scope and scale of the situation yet.

  10. #170
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Without any particular expertise in this area, it strikes me that the scariest aspect of this is the continued uncertainty. China apparently changed their counting method again so, while I had no doubt we weren't getting real number out of China to begin with, it just seems like we don't have a real handle on the scope and scale of the situation yet.
    Just assume it's global at this point.

  11. #171
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Just assume it's global at this point.
    Yesterday it was reported that there were all of a sudden six cases in serious condition in Italy. So far about 20% of known cases have resulted in patients in serious condition; that suggests a few dozen more blissfully unaware, unquarantined, and undiagnosed cases in the area spreading the virus the last for the last week or two.

    I'm starting to think the genie's out of the bottle with this thing.

  12. #172
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Yesterday it was reported that there were all of a sudden six cases in serious condition in Italy. So far about 20% of known cases have resulted in patients in serious condition; that suggests a few dozen more blissfully unaware, unquarantined, and undiagnosed cases in the area spreading the virus the last for the last week or two.

    I'm starting to think the genie's out of the bottle with this thing.
    Ditto with Iran. The first two cases they announced were dead. With a fatality rate around 2%, that leaves 98 others out there spreading. Here is what the Ministry of Health in Iran has said about it.

    “Based on existing reports, the spread of coronavirus started in Qom and with attention to people’s travels has now reached several cities in the country including Tehran, Babol, Arak, Isfahan, Rasht and other cities,” health ministry official Minou Mohrez said, according to the official IRNA news agency.

    “It’s possible that it exists in all cities in Iran,” she said.

  13. #173
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    CDC press conference

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...es/4829278002/

    “We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but it’s very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen,” she said. “Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread.”

    Likely is a strong word. Can’t say I’m surprised that the spread is likely, but I’m slightly surprised that the CDC is admitting this so early.

  14. #174
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    So -- time to start scaling back attendance at places with large groups of people?
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  15. #175
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Not yet

    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    So -- time to start scaling back attendance at places with large groups of people?
    Not until you’ve got more specific instances of community infection, but I expect that will be soon.

  16. #176
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    So -- time to start scaling back attendance at places with large groups of people?
    Guess I'm glad I have a bunch of M95 masks left from the summer mission trip.

    Niece Elizabeth is helping with CDC screening at SeaTac but we don't know exactly what she is doing.

  17. #177
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInKansas View Post
    Guess I'm glad I have a bunch of M95 masks left from the summer mission trip.
    I'm gonna look odd at the gym and at church wearing those, but safety first. . . .

    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Not until you’ve got more specific instances of community infection, but I expect that will be soon.
    I hear ya, but -- if it's coming soon, why not start now instead of waiting to find out that my community is infected?
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  18. #178
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Because

    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I'm gonna look odd at the gym and at church wearing those, but safety first. . . .



    I hear ya, but -- if it's coming soon, why not start now instead of waiting to find out that my community is infected?
    Human nature.

  19. #179
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    So -- time to start scaling back attendance at places with large groups of people?
    Since I already avoid such places like the plague, it will be no problem if the actual plague hits closer to home.

  20. #180
    South Korea had 200 new cases yesterday, with over a thousand more suspected. Italy is up to 54 confirmed now, which is around where South Korea was just a few days ago. Several of the infected Koreans just returned from a trip to Israel, so now Israel has to start monitoring. Iran has had five deaths, which suggests hundreds of cases there. After perusing CNN and Fox News, I'm not sure why this isn't the top news story.

Similar Threads

  1. Lacrosse: The 2020 Season
    By burnspbesq in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 176
    Last Post: 03-25-2020, 11:14 PM
  2. 2020 Final Four
    By szstark in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 03-09-2020, 11:00 AM
  3. MLB 2020 HOF Election
    By Blue in the Face in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 01-24-2020, 11:28 AM
  4. FB: 2020 Schedule is out
    By nocilla in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 31
    Last Post: 01-22-2020, 06:08 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •