Originally Posted by
CDu
Eh, I think the most likely reason that deaths haven't spiked as high as in March/April is a combination of things:
1. We vastly underestimated the number of cases back in February/March/April. Most believe we were probably underestimating infections by a factor of 5 to 10 back when testing was not as prevalent.
2. Deaths are a lagging indicator by a few weeks, and the re-emergence of cases in Europe started about 3 weeks ago (i.e., we are still a week or two away from seeing the real spike in deaths).
So I think the story is about to start looking less rosy. It will still look better than things did in March/April, by virtue of much more extensive testing now than we had back then.
I do suspect that we're doing a better job of taking care of the elderly and other high-risk people (mainly the elderly and high-risk folks are taking more precautions). But I don't think that is the major driver for the divergence in deaths to cases we've seen so far in October in Europe.
CDu -- on topic as always. I would add the folowing:
Seniors in residential facilities were totally unprotected in March and April and were infected by both visitors and staff members carrying the virus. It was a perfect storm. Every single death in my small county, for example, came at such residences. Now everyone is getting tested, and the incidence among the most vulnerable is far less.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013