PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[rsvman]

Well, we were expecting this day to come, but hoping we'd somehow avoid it. Mrs. CDu (pediatric nurse in hospital setting) has come down with a sore throat last night, which has spread to CDu Jr. (age 5.5) and even me. Per hospital regulations, she's on quarantine for 14 days minimum, perhaps more pending the results of her nasal test (she got it today, results in 4-24 hours).

Stressful time in the CDu household. Fingers crossed that this is just a common cold and she comes back negative. Generally speaking, we're a pretty healthy lot, and not in any high-risk group, so fingers crossed that if it is COVID it doesn't result in severe symptoms. But we're obviously anxiously awaiting her test results.

I hope she turns out negative, but if the hospital policy is a 14-day quarantine for symptoms it is not in keeping with the recommendations. 14-day quarantines are for exposures, not for symptomatic illnesses.

There are two protocols for "return to work" in a hospital setting; one is test-based and the other is symptom-based. The test-based strategy only requires 3 days of no fever (without antipyretics) and other symptoms improving, plus two consecutive negative tests, performed at least 24 hours apart. The symptom-based strategy allows return to work when the person is afebrile without antipyretics for three days, other symptoms "improving," and it has been at least 10 days since the onset of symptoms.

If she turns out to be test negative, she should inquire with Occ Health about their return to work policy for symptomatic persons who test negative from the outset. If positive, she should inquire about their return to work policy for people who test positive. They should be following the CDC recommendations (listed above). At our hospital we initially used the test-based strategy, but as soon as the CDC said they had no preference which of the two strategies were used, I pushed for using the symptom-based strategy. The hospital had several people out for a month or more because they continued to test positive (they were almost certainly not contagious after the first 10-14 days, despite persistently testing positive).

Again, best wishes to you and your family.

[chris13]

"asinine" covers a lot of sins.

But the lawsuit, as best I can tell, is a non-starter. Seems kinda bogus to me.

Trump's team is now also looking at Jaguar Stadium, and the minor league baseball stadium in Jacksonville, as potential outdoor venues if needed. Hurricane season and Florida, what could possibly go wrong.

I cannot imagine attending an outdoor event in Florida in August. It’s hard to think of a less appealing invitation

[DukieInKansas]

I cannot imagine attending an outdoor event in Florida in August. It’s hard to think of a less appealing invitation

There were a lot of happy people when a rainstorm came through about 1.5 hours before my niece's outdoor August wedding in Orlando. The ceremony was moved indoors. The rain stopped by wedding time but the flagstone walkways had puddles that she would have to walk through. There were not too may upset people.

Of course, I can't imagine going to such a large convention no matter what the setting/purpose. Not my idea of a good time - especially in the current pandemic times.

[budwom]

A lot of Republicans are going to have "other priorities" come convention time. Hard to imagine they can fill that arena with willing participants...

[MChambers]

I cannot imagine attending an outdoor event in Florida in August. It’s hard to think of a less appealing invitation

The more I think about it, the more I think I'd want to watch it, outdoor, in Jacksonville (which is a lot hotter than South Florida in August). And I don't watch any political conventions.

[Phredd3]

It appears that the risk to children, at least to those without significant comorbidities, is very, very low, and the risk we are assessing is really to the adults in the equation: teachers, administrators, bus drivers, custodians, as well as to parents and grandparents living in the home. Even as to adults, one study concluded:

People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

Would it be barbaric to schedule school and exclude the high-risk adults but increase teacher salaries until a sufficient number of low-risk adults have signed up, if N95 respirators, etc. were made available to them?

Barbaric is a strong word, but it may not be a great decision. The study you cite looks entirely at the risk of death, and as folks have repeatedly pointed out in this thread, death is not the only bad outcome to COVID-19. Significant hospital stays and potentially long-term effects to the disease are not especially uncommon. Or, to quote another article posted up-thread:

We still see 70-, 80-year-olds, but we are seeing some of those 20-, 30-, 40-year-olds, lots of 50-year-olds, so seeing a more broad base demographic across the board rather than an earlier experience which was primarily just the elderly patients.

I don't know about your school, but my kids' high school is absolutely loaded with people in the 50s age range, including many of the very best teachers in the district. Personally, I'm not happy to subject them to that. Also, I'm not terribly willing to run the experiment with my high-schoolers, given that, according to retrospective studies in France, China, and Iceland, the secondary infection rate for households of high-school-age children is 10%-15%. I'm really not all that happy to subject myself to that substantial of a chance to contract this kind of infection.

Things are quite different at the elementary level, where transmission among children 11 and under seems to be quite uncommon. One size does not fit all, even when it comes to schools.

[tbyers11]

Well, we were expecting this day to come, but hoping we'd somehow avoid it. Mrs. CDu (pediatric nurse in hospital setting) has come down with a sore throat last night, which has spread to CDu Jr. (age 5.5) and even me. Per hospital regulations, she's on quarantine for 14 days minimum, perhaps more pending the results of her nasal test (she got it today, results in 4-24 hours).

Stressful time in the CDu household. Fingers crossed that this is just a common cold and she comes back negative. Generally speaking, we're a pretty healthy lot, and not in any high-risk group, so fingers crossed that if it is COVID it doesn't result in severe symptoms. But we're obviously anxiously awaiting her test results.

Best wishes to you and your family CDu.

[sagegrouse]

Well, we were expecting this day to come, but hoping we'd somehow avoid it. Mrs. CDu (pediatric nurse in hospital setting) has come down with a sore throat last night, which has spread to CDu Jr. (age 5.5) and even me. Per hospital regulations, she's on quarantine for 14 days minimum, perhaps more pending the results of her nasal test (she got it today, results in 4-24 hours).

Stressful time in the CDu household. Fingers crossed that this is just a common cold and she comes back negative. Generally speaking, we're a pretty healthy lot, and not in any high-risk group, so fingers crossed that if it is COVID it doesn't result in severe symptoms. But we're obviously anxiously awaiting her test results.

Oh my, I am sorry to hear about it, and it strikes close to home, given how many people know you through DBR. We are hoping for the best.

[CDu]

I hope she turns out negative, but if the hospital policy is a 14-day quarantine for symptoms it is not in keeping with the recommendations. 14-day quarantines are for exposures, not for symptomatic illnesses.

There are two protocols for "return to work" in a hospital setting; one is test-based and the other is symptom-based. The test-based strategy only requires 3 days of no fever (without antipyretics) and other symptoms improving, plus two consecutive negative tests, performed at least 24 hours apart. The symptom-based strategy allows return to work when the person is afebrile without antipyretics for three days, other symptoms "improving," and it has been at least 10 days since the onset of symptoms.

Again, best wishes to you and your family.

Yeah, I misunderstood. She is not allowed to work pending the results (so off today), and happens to be off for 7 days thereafter. I am not sure what the hospital’s policy is if positive, but hoping not to have to find out.

Thanks to you and everyone who sent best wishes. Hopefully the test results will be negative and all will be well. I will be sure to let folks know either way. Hoping not to be the first confirmed case among DBR members!

[Kdogg]

A lot of Republicans are going to have "other priorities" come convention time. Hard to imagine they can fill that arena with willing participants...

Pat Roberts, Chuck Grassley, Mitt Romney, Lamar Alexander, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have already opted out for different reasons. That’s over 10% of GOP Senators.

Mitch McConnell broke with the White House and said depending on circumstances in August the convention maybe not go forward. These folks and the rest of the rank and fine don’t get the same bubble situation as a sitting POTUS so they may be less willing to carry on with a convention. I doubt this happens and will take the under of cancellation by August 10th.

[Steven43]

These folks and the rest of the rank and fine don’t get the same bubble situation as a sitting POTUS so they may be less willing to carry on with a convention.

It’s debatable as to how rank and fine they actually are. 😊

[johnb]

Oh, there are definitely very fine people...on both sides. On both sides.

And rank people on both sides as well, though one subset of one side might be more rank after a few hours in Jacksonville in August.

Question: rsvman described a single hospital policy for a return to work (for 2 scenarios). My impression is that policy on return was more of a mishmash, complicated by the relatively high rate of false negatives and the fact we don’t know how long an individual might transmit.

[rsvman]

I was merely citing the cdc's official guidance for infected health care providers to return to work.

[MChambers]

From doctors, nurses, and executives about the effects of Covid-19

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...tive-very-well

"One — Update report from the Ventura Nurse. Two — A summary of a conversation with family members, who are doctors. Three — A summary of a conversation with 20 year friend, who is an executive in a major hospital chain. Four — The incoherent and increasingly unmanageable Covid situation I personally face running a high-tech manufacturing company."

[MChambers]

I've got three homemade masks and a fourth one my wife purchased, but I thought this review of some masks might be helpful to someone here: https://nymag.com/strategist/article...uy-online.html

[CameronDuke]

COVID-19 IN VIRGINIA

Positive COVID-19 Cases: 68,931 (+943 from Thursday)
People Hospitalized: 6,675 (+50 from Thursday)
COVID-19-Linked Deaths: 1,958 (+21 from Thursday)
Total Tests: 846,912 (+17,119 from Thursday)

[tbyers11]

From doctors, nurses, and executives about the effects of Covid-19

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...tive-very-well

"One — Update report from the Ventura Nurse. Two — A summary of a conversation with family members, who are doctors. Three — A summary of a conversation with 20 year friend, who is an executive in a major hospital chain. Four — The incoherent and increasingly unmanageable Covid situation I personally face running a high-tech manufacturing company."

Thank you for the link to this article. Very meaningful perspectives that the impact of COVID19 can not be simplified by the rise/decline of the death count

[budwom]

Pat Roberts, Chuck Grassley, Mitt Romney, Lamar Alexander, Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have already opted out for different reasons. That’s over 10% of GOP Senators.

Mitch McConnell broke with the White House and said depending on circumstances in August the convention maybe not go forward. These folks and the rest of the rank and fine don’t get the same bubble situation as a sitting POTUS so they may be less willing to carry on with a convention. I doubt this happens and will take the under of cancellation by August 10th.

Another case in point, Governor Sununu (R) of NH, says he'll greet POTUS on Saturday before the rally there, but said no way he's going to the rally and be "in the middle of thousands of people."

[sagegrouse]

The paradox of new cases rising rapidly but new deaths shrinking has, unfortunately, begun to resolve itself. New deaths on Thursday were 960, the highest total for a Thursday since June 4. The seven-day average for deaths is 621, the highest since June 21 and an increase of 20 percent in the last five days. There is some solace that we are, for now, a long way from the high reported deaths during April averaging over 2,000 per day.

The number of new cases continues to be very high -- 61.1 thousand on Thursday and a seven-day average of 53.4 thousand, which is 65 percent higher than the previous peak in April.

[CameronDuke]

The paradox of new cases rising rapidly but new deaths shrinking has, unfortunately, begun to resolve itself. New deaths on Thursday were 960, the highest total for a Thursday since June 4. The seven-day average for deaths is 621, the highest since June 21 and an increase of 20 percent in the last five days. There is some solace that we are, for now, a long way from the high reported deaths during April averaging over 2,000 per day.

The number of new cases continues to be very high -- 61.1 thousand on Thursday and a seven-day average of 53.4 thousand, which is 65 percent higher than the previous peak in April.

Ugh, not going the way we all hoped it would by now. I anticipate new massive shut downs as a result of these numbers. It’s going the opposite way of what we need.