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  1. #3321
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    A report by the National Academies of Science says the coronavirus is unlikely to wane in the summer: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...s-panel-finds/
    No. It doesn't say that.


    It says that we shouldn't assume that it will wane.


    I think we should have higher standards on this board than the media, particularly the WaPo.

  2. #3322
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    Haven't been allowed to talk about his until now, but here at our Pharmaceutical Services Group, we're making Remdesivir using existing API's. Remdesivir has shown great promise in the battle against Covid-19. If we include what we have already produced, we have enough API to produce 1.5 million doses and we're working around the clock to get it done. Those 1.5 million doses will be donated where they are most needed.

    https://www.gilead.com/stories/artic...airman-and-ceo
    Have any results been released?

  3. #3323
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    I donít want to get into this too deeply since it probably belongs more in the off topic board, but regarding the vaccine timeline: the 12-18 months that keeps being reported is EXTREMELY ambitious and would be the fastest a vaccine has been produced in history by far. Thatís not to say it canít be done. But from a scientific standpoint there are elements of the ďtestingĒ that just canít be sped up no matter how much time and money you put into the problem.
    Jacob Glanville from Distributed Bio, which specializes in antibody engineering for pharmaceutical companies, said his company has already developed antibodies to Covid-19 and that they could possibly be tested and, under the ďcompassionate useĒ rules, ready to administer by September, 2020 (they just had to modify antibodies they developed for SARS in 2002). He said that testing a vaccine takes much longer because itís necessary to wait for the body to develop immunity but that antibodies can just be given to an infected person and we find out right away whether it works. At least thatís his spiel.

    ďThe coronavirus, if you were to zoom in on it, you would see a series, a ring of spikes, and it uses those spikes to invade human cells," Glanville said. "We've identified a series of super potent antibodies that block those spikes and therefore make the virus no longer infectious.Ē I donít know what the problem is. The spike protein looks fairly easy to deal with:



  4. #3324
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Huh?

    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    No. It doesn't say that.


    It says that we shouldn't assume that it will wane.


    I think we should have higher standards on this board than the media, particularly the WaPo.
    Youíre right, thatís what it says. Sorry for being a bit off.

    But I think the Postís coverage of this pandemic has been quite good. The Post also covered earlier studies that suggested a slowdown was likely as the weather warmed. Iíve found the Post to be a good source on the novel coronavirus.

    Iíve also found Vox to be very good.

  5. #3325
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    In the good news department, globally, new cases are beginning to level off. It's been consistent enough over the last week to be a noticeable trend, no longer just a blip with questionable meaning.

    A long ways to go, yet, obviously, but a good sign.

  6. #3326
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    A report by the National Academies of Science says the coronavirus is unlikely to wane in the summer: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...s-panel-finds/
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    No. It doesn't say that.


    It says that we shouldn't assume that it will wane.


    I think we should have higher standards on this board than the media, particularly the WaPo.
    I believe the study looked at what was known about the effect of "heat and humidity" on transmissability of COVID-19. It was a limited study. There are dynamics within the progress of the disease (peaks, e.g.), as well as steps being taken by government and public health officials, which are probably quite a bit stronger over the next few months.

    But, asking for BD80 to comment, the NAS study group did find the link between climate and disease was fairly weak, didn't it? You wrote with some vehemence.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  7. #3327
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    I know it's only anecdotal, but the virus is kicking up a fuss now in Singapore where it's definitely warm. Very warm.

  8. #3328
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    Here's OPK's opening to talk about his love of the word "defenestration" . . . . . .
    I never knew that word can literally mean throwing out of a window.


    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I believe the study looked at what was known about the effect of "heat and humidity" on transmissability of COVID-19. It was a limited study. There are dynamics within the progress of the disease (peaks, e.g.), as well as steps being taken by government and public health officials, which are probably quite a bit stronger over the next few months.

    But, asking for BD80 to comment, the NAS study group did find the link between climate and disease was fairly weak, didn't it? You wrote with some vehemence.

    The "study" was more of review of existing "studies". The committee quite properly concluded that we don't have enough information to draw a conclusion.

    The underlying studies referenced conclude that heat and humidity will slow the spread of the virus, but scientific testing is just beginning. Specifically:

    "The laboratory data available so far indicate reduced survival of SARS-CoV-2 at elevated temperatures Ö . However, the number of well-controlled studies available at this time on the topic remains small. We anticipate new, relevant data within the next week or two, and in particular, data on surface survival of the virus under different levels of humidity, and aerosol survival with and without exposure to natural levels of UV radiation." (all emphasis mine).

    The committee then proceeds to (properly in my mind) poop all over the "natural history" studies: those trying to draw conclusions from the data collected on the virus to date:

    "Some limited data support a potential waning of cases in warmer and more humid seasons, yet none are without major limitations."

    "The current pandemic started in the winter season mostly in northern latitudes, and less than 4 months ago, making it difficult to ascertain differences within a localized geographic region with changing seasons. Some analyses of variability across different geographic regions based on humidity and temperature are available. A study from China in the early part of the pandemic suggested that every 1įC elevation in ambient temperature led to a decrease in daily confirmed cases by 36-57% ... Another study in China concluded that increases in temperature and relative humidity can lower the reproductive rate... . Outside of China, a study looking at daily case growth rates in 121 countries or regions found ... growth rates peaked in regions with mean temperature of 5įC and decreased in warmer and colder climates. Temperature was the variable with the highest relative importance in explaining variations in growth rates Ö . Another study in 310 geographic regions across 116 countries also found an inverse relationship between temperature and humidity and incidence of COVID-19. One study examined cities with significant community spread compared to those without spread and found greater disease rates in ... (areas of lower average temperature and humidity), which is consistent with the behavior of seasonal respiratory viruses. A study in countries that had at least 12 days of data found an increase in doubling time of virus transmission at warmer temperatures (average of 9.5įC vs 26.5įC), suggesting a slowing of disease spread at warmer temperatures.12

    The underlying studies can be sited to justify a conclusion that the virus will wane, but the committee properly advised that there is not enough data yet to support that conclusion.

    It is wrong to state, as WaPo did, that "Coronavirus unlikely to significantly diminish with warm weather, National Academies of Sciences panel finds." (emphasis mine). The studies support the conclusion that the virus will wane, they just shouldn't be relied upon. There is NOTHING to suggest that the studies are wrong, and the committee in no way suggested that the virus is "unlikely to wane."

  9. #3329
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Oregon
    Quote Originally Posted by left_hook_lacey View Post
    Haven't been allowed to talk about his until now, but here at our Pharmaceutical Services Group, we're making Remdesivir using existing API's. Remdesivir has shown great promise in the battle against Covid-19. If we include what we have already produced, we have enough API to produce 1.5 million doses and we're working around the clock to get it done. Those 1.5 million doses will be donated where they are most needed.

    https://www.gilead.com/stories/artic...airman-and-ceo
    that is wonderful news! Thanks for sharing and keep the ball rolling!

  10. #3330
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Neals384 View Post
    that is wonderful news! Thanks for sharing and keep the ball rolling!
    Thanks. We are retrofitting plants around the world to produce this in mass quantities.

    And we're still pumping out test kits at our sister sites.

    Our company had local artists come in and paint the sidewalks as you come into the various buildings on campus with inspirational messages. Pretty cool.

  11. #3331
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Saw a reference today to a suspicion/fear in China that recovered patients do not have the high level of antibodies one would hope for, increasing the possibility of reinfection...stay tuned

  12. #3332
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Saw a reference today to a suspicion/fear in China that recovered patients do not have the high level of antibodies one would hope for, increasing the possibility of reinfection...stay tuned
    https://news.yahoo.com/anthony-fauci...020000739.html

    Dr. Anthony Fauci says people who recover from the coronavirus will likely be immune should a second wave of infection spread in the early fall.

    He explained that because the virus has not mutated much, people who develop immunity will likely maintain it at least for the next few months.

    Preliminary studies about coronavirus immunity and antibodies have shown that most, but not all, recovered patients develop antibodies.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  13. #3333
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Another 6.6 million jobless claims, bringing three week total to 14 million+. Believe I read somewhere it took 2 years to lose 8 million jobs during the Great Recession.

  14. #3334
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Another 6.6 million jobless claims, bringing three week total to 14 million+. Believe I read somewhere it took 2 years to lose 8 million jobs during the Great Recession.
    Well, the workforce was also much smaller then.

  15. #3335
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Well, the workforce was also much smaller then.
    Not that much smaller. It was just over 10 years ago.

    Of course, it was also a different situation, as the service industry wasn’t shut down en made back then.

  16. #3336
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    6 miles from Heaven, 10 miles from Hell
    Google has compiled "COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports" for most countries. For the US, you can look at reports for each state and county.

    https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

    You can look at your location and see the changes in trips by retail, work, residential, parks, groceries and transit.

    It's a PDF for each country/state, so not great to do comparisons. More "interesting" than "useful" for most.

  17. #3337
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Westport, CT

    Whoa...if this is reproducible...

    https://www.jpost.com/health-science...ry-data-624058

    Key paragraph:

    Pluristemís PLX cells are ďallogeneic mesenchymal-like cells that have immunomodulatory properties,Ē meaning they induce the immune systemís natural regulatory T cells and M2 macrophages, the company explained in a previous release. The result could be the reversal of dangerous overactivation of the immune system. This would likely reduce the fatal symptoms of pneumonia and pneumonitis (general inflammation of lung tissue).

    Human ingenuity never ceases to amaze me.

  18. #3338
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Not that much smaller. It was just over 10 years ago.

    Of course, it was also a different situation, as the service industry wasnít shut down en made back then.
    I misunderstood your definition of the Great Recession. Apologies.

  19. #3339
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Another 6.6 million jobless claims, bringing three week total to 14 million+.
    Just a minor quibble, because it's so incredible: Even the raw, non-seasonally adjusted numbers total to more than 15 million at the moment. Of course, seasonal employment is expected to increase at this time of year, so the adjusted numbers are over 16 million.

  20. #3340
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I misunderstood your definition of the Great Recession. Apologies.
    I've posted using the term Great Recession a couple times now and it seems to generate a little confusion or folks read it and see Great Depression. Maybe it's not as commonly used as I thought but Great Recession is the term for the 2007-2009 economic downturn. I don't know if it's "official" or anything.

    What will this one be called? The COVID crash? Coronavirecession? It obviously has some unique attributes relative to other economic declines.

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