PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[sagegrouse]

So they should not have advised vaccinated people to wear masks in public? That sounds like an even worse choice.

No, there are a million places in between. We have been operating for a number of months where most vaccinated people are free from wearing masks in most public indoor settings. That is 160 million who are fully vaccinated. Now, it turns out that some (a very few?) vaccinated people can still transmit the corona virus. Where's the evidence -- how many caes? How sure are we? I didn't get any info from the CDC announcement -- certainly not enough to justify such a drastic policy recommendation, especially when it discourages others from getting the vaccine ("Why bother?"). Anyway, poor performance by people we should be trusting.

[CameronBornAndBred]

We'll find out how high the vaccination rate is among federal employees -- I expect very high.

"And contractors." Which includes every plumber in every federal building and every military installation.

Edit...PS, it could only be 2 people affected and the GOP will still scream forced vaccination.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

No, there are a million places in between. We have been operating for a number of months where most vaccinated people are free from wearing masks in most public indoor settings. That is 160 million who are fully vaccinated. Now, it turns out that some (a very few?) vaccinated people can still transmit the corona virus. Where's the evidence -- how many caes? How sure are we? I didn't get any info from the CDC announcement -- certainly not enough to justify such a drastic policy recommendation, especially when it discourages others from getting the vaccine ("Why bother?"). Anyway, poor performance by people we should be trusting.

I sincerely doubt this action alone will talk someone out of getting a vaccine. But that's neither here nor there.

If they feel it is important for vaccinated folks to wear masks, they ought to relay that message. Anything less is irresponsible to the folks doing their damndest to stay safe.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

We'll find out how high the vaccination rate is among federal employees -- I expect very high.

I assume this will apply to the military, where vaccination rates are OK but not great (data is as of end of June but I assume it hasn't changed dramatically).

"The Navy reported a 77 percent vaccination rate for active-duty sailors, while 70 percent of troops in the Army are vaccinated, as are 61 percent in the Air Force and 58 percent in the Marine Corps."

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5...s-for-military

[cato]

Hot off the press, here is our school district summarizing guidance from the CA dept of public health. School starts in just over three weeks.

All K-12 students are required to wear masks indoors regardless of vaccine status.
All adults in K-12 school settings, regardless of vaccine status, are required to wear masks when sharing indoor spaces with students.
Masks are optional outdoors.
Quarantine protocols following exposures have been reduced to minimize loss of in person instruction.
Distancing is no longer required in classrooms.
Additionally, an independent study option will be provided to students whose health will be put at risk by attending school in person.

[Section 15]

It has been educational reading about all the reasons why people don't/won't get vaccinated. Here is one that I don't think anyone has mentioned :-)

It turns out we have neighbors, who because they are Australian nationals, are not vaccinated. This afternoon I learned (through outdoor conversation) that they have decided they will follow Australian protocols for vaccination, which (they said) were to not be vaccinated until more was known about the vaccines.

These are not uneducated people, both have advanced degrees in engineering, which I suppose gives them insight into medical decisions /s.

Now, I realize that Australia has a very low infection and death rate, but has very strong lockdowns. I think I have read that the vaccination rate is also low. But this is North Carolina, not New South Wales.

So, bottom line is that one's nationality confers an immunity that others do not possess.

Just thought you'd like to know...

Section 15

[Ultrarunner]

They have been asked kindly and given all sorts of evidence for months. As I said above, I'm not giving them an engraved invitation. It's time for them to suck it up and help society. At this point, I would consider them to be evil and/or stupid. And if they would stop making everything so confrontational that might also help people's opinion of them. Before someone jumps on me, there are obviously plenty of exceptions to this rule. But not many millions of exceptions for all those who have not gotten vaccinated.

In my little "siloed" corner of the world, my wife's company just had its second positive case in a week of someone who is vaccinated. They are a floor of a Manhattan office building - maybe 75-100 people. She has been going in a few days a week but is likely going to ramp that back.

Hmm. Given that a significant group that is unvaccinated are minorities who frankly have every reason to distrust government officials, especially those in large single-party cities where educational, vocational, and familial outcomes are terrible and incarceration rates astronomical, I'd hesitate to label them 'evil and/or stupid'. Add to that a system that is not particularly accessible to the working class but works great for the professional class, and it is clear that there is more to the story than bad intentions, stupidity, and party affiliation. Here's a good article from a source I trust. Also, you might consider this not-yet-peer-reviewed article.

A good chunk of the remainder are far from stupid; they are analyzing the available data for both the strengths and weaknesses and assessing their options from there. Despite the blatant bias, this article from MIT is a good read.

As for breakthroughs, I'm expecting a lot more. The Yankees have now had two, NCSU's travails have been discussed and beaten like a rented mule, we had the head coach of the Colts test positive, vaccinated Olympic athletes are testing positive, and the list goes on and on. The one thing they have in common is a testing regimen that the average citizen does not have. Data from the UK indicates that they are experiencing a 47 percent infection rate in vaccinated individuals at the level of hospital admissions. Israel is at about 40 percent. Both are for the Delta variant. At this point, it would be surprising if the US numbers are not similar.

DISCLAIMER: I am not vaccinated, nor do I intend at this juncture to get vaccinated. I had Covid in October of 2020 (the greatest symptom of which was annoyance from my sweetie who quarantined with me) and I have tested positive for antibodies during blood donations since. One point lost in the noise of this fight is that we have a significant number of people with natural immunity. Just as an interesting point, Israel's rate of reinfection and hospitalization for previously infected and recovered individuals? Less than 1 percent.

NOTE: If the data changes, my opinion may as well.

[Furniture]

It has been educational reading about all the reasons why people don't/won't get vaccinated. Here is one that I don't think anyone has mentioned :-)

It turns out we have neighbors, who because they are Australian nationals, are not vaccinated. This afternoon I learned (through outdoor conversation) that they have decided they will follow Australian protocols for vaccination, which (they said) were to not be vaccinated until more was known about the vaccines.

These are not uneducated people, both have advanced degrees in engineering, which I suppose gives them insight into medical decisions /s.

Now, I realize that Australia has a very low infection and death rate, but has very strong lockdowns. I think I have read that the vaccination rate is also low. But this is North Carolina, not New South Wales.

So, bottom line is that one's nationality confers an immunity that others do not possess.

Just thought you'd like to know...

Section 15

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ys-2021-07-27/

Australia's vaccine rollout has been "a colossal failure" because the government failed to buy enough vaccines so its borders are therefore likely to remain closed until at least early 2022, former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull told the BBC.

[Stray Gator]

Hmm. Given that a significant group that is unvaccinated are minorities who frankly have every reason to distrust government officials, especially those in large single-party cities where educational, vocational, and familial outcomes are terrible and incarceration rates astronomical, I'd hesitate to label them 'evil and/or stupid'. Add to that a system that is not particularly accessible to the working class but works great for the professional class, and it is clear that there is more to the story than bad intentions, stupidity, and party affiliation. Here's a good article from a source I trust. Also, you might consider this not-yet-peer-reviewed article.

A good chunk of the remainder are far from stupid; they are analyzing the available data for both the strengths and weaknesses and assessing their options from there. Despite the blatant bias, this article from MIT is a good read.

Three of the four articles you cite date back to February, March, and early April, when vaccine distribution was still insufficient to meet the demands in the US, and before concerted efforts were underway to extend free vaccine availability by reaching out into underserved areas through such measures as mobile vaccination stations, localized sourcing from neighborhood pharmacies and grocery stores, and even door-to-door canvassing that offered at-home shots. As confirmed by the only article you cite of recent origin, dated July 21, however, "CDC data also show that recent vaccinations are reaching larger shares of Hispanic, Asian, and Black populations compared to overall vaccinations. Thirty percent of vaccines administered in the past 14 days have gone to Hispanic people, 6% to Asian people, and 14% to Black people (Figure 1). These recent patterns suggest a narrowing of racial gaps in vaccinations at the national level, particularly for Hispanic and Black people, who account for a larger share of recent vaccinations compared to their share of the total population (30% vs. 17% and 13% vs. 12%, respectively)."

I don't think anyone would dispute that minority populations were initially disadvantaged in the vaccine rollout based on geographic distribution patterns and issues of accessibility to the mass vaccination sites. But I don't believe that any such disadvantage in access to the vaccine continues to be a significant factor for minorities, so I no longer view lack of availability as a reasonable justification for lower vaccination rates among any segment of the population. If the percentages of Black and Hispanic people getting vaccinated are still lagging due to their own personal hesitancy, whether it be for historic or other reasons, I don't know what more anyone can do to overcome that obstacle.

But there's no disputing that unvaccinated people are providing fertile ground not only for this resurgent spread of the virus, but for the potential emergence of more dangerous variants in the future; and it's also clear that those whose health and well-being is most likely to be put in immediate jeopardy by the unvaccinated are members of their own families and communities, with whom they regularly interact. Have you ever heard the old saying that "he who hesitates is lost"? In this case, unfortunately, it's not only the ones who hesitate that may ultimately be lost; it could be their loved ones as well. If that doesn't motivate them to get the shot, then I don't know what it will take.

As for breakthroughs, I'm expecting a lot more. The Yankees have now had two, NCSU's travails have been discussed and beaten like a rented mule, we had the head coach of the Colts test positive, vaccinated Olympic athletes are testing positive, and the list goes on and on. The one thing they have in common is a testing regimen that the average citizen does not have. Data from the UK indicates that they are experiencing a 47 percent infection rate in vaccinated individuals at the level of hospital admissions. Israel is at about 40 percent. Both are for the Delta variant. At this point, it would be surprising if the US numbers are not similar.

I don't know the source of your data that shows such high infection rates among hospitalized patients in the UK and Israel -- if that's what it really means -- but the current data being reported in the US indicates that about 97% of those being hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated. That there have been some high profile "breakthrough" infections comes as no surprise; after all, we were always told that the vaccines were only about 94% effective against symptomatic infection -- which means, of course, that there will be a small number of vaccinated people who still contract the virus. But so far, at least in this country, the vaccinated people who get COVID aren't ending up in hospitals or morgues, except in rare cases. I just don't see how anyone can review the data and conclude that the potential adverse effects of getting vaccinated outweigh, or even come close to outweighing, the potential adverse effects of getting COVID without being vaccinated -- an imbalance that grows exponentially when you consider the potential impact of becoming infected and then passing the virus to a family member or friend who suffers severe, long-term COVID symptoms.

DISCLAIMER: I am not vaccinated, nor do I intend at this juncture to get vaccinated. I had Covid in October of 2020 (the greatest symptom of which was annoyance from my sweetie who quarantined with me) and I have tested positive for antibodies during blood donations since. One point lost in the noise of this fight is that we have a significant number of people with natural immunity. Just as an interesting point, Israel's rate of reinfection and hospitalization for previously infected and recovered individuals? Less than 1 percent.

NOTE: If the data changes, my opinion may as well.

Good for you, that the effects of the virus were so inconsequential. But what about all those other people who have experienced, and may yet suffer, more serious symptoms and death? And wholly apart from the unfortunate ones who get infected, what about all those people who are now being forced to postpone elective medical procedures because the hospitals are once again overflowing with COVID patients requiring intensive care? Here in Orlando, the resurgence of COVID has reached what the mayor yesterday characterized as "crisis mode" -- a pronouncement that promptly made the headlines on CNN. What about all the people who own or are employed by businesses that depend on the tourist industry, including the theme parks like Disney and Universal, and who now -- because of the unvaccinated who have dragged us all back down into this pit of misery -- will see their hopes for economic recovery abruptly curtailed? What about our children and grandchildren whose educational, emotional, and social growth will once again be stifled, and perhaps permanently impaired, by an abnormal school experience.

As you say, "the list goes on and on": Innocent people, and society as a whole, will continue to suffer unnecessarily in countless ways because some people refuse to get vaccinated. You can cite all the "reasons" you like to justify that refusal. But to me, whatever "reasons" might once have been credible are all just "excuses" now. And other than for the very few who can claim a legitimate medical exemption, I don't consider any of those excuses valid. If we are forced to endure another widespread shutdown, I don't want to hear any bellyaching from those who were so insistent on pursuing their own self-gratification that they couldn't be bothered to make the same small sacrifices that the majority of us were willing to make so that everyone could once again enjoy exercising their freedoms.

[Ultrarunner]

Three of the four articles you cite date back to February, March, and early April, when vaccine distribution was still insufficient to meet the demands in the US, and before concerted efforts were underway to extend free vaccine availability by reaching out into underserved areas through such measures as mobile vaccination stations, localized sourcing from neighborhood pharmacies and grocery stores, and even door-to-door canvassing that offered at-home shots. As confirmed by the only article you cite of recent origin, dated July 21, however, "CDC data also show that recent vaccinations are reaching larger shares of Hispanic, Asian, and Black populations compared to overall vaccinations. Thirty percent of vaccines administered in the past 14 days have gone to Hispanic people, 6% to Asian people, and 14% to Black people (Figure 1). These recent patterns suggest a narrowing of racial gaps in vaccinations at the national level, particularly for Hispanic and Black people, who account for a larger share of recent vaccinations compared to their share of the total population (30% vs. 17% and 13% vs. 12%, respectively)."

So, narrowing. The gap did, and does, exist. Vaccinations in the black community barely reaches the level of even with regard to percentage of population. Since that gap does exist, do you agree with the original premise that those that did not vax were 'evil and/or stupid' but likely the result of other factors?

I don't think anyone would dispute that minority populations were initially disadvantaged in the vaccine rollout based on geographic distribution patterns and issues of accessibility to the mass vaccination sites. But I don't believe that any such disadvantage in access to the vaccine continues to be a significant factor for minorities, so I no longer view lack of availability as a reasonable justification for lower vaccination rates among any segment of the population. If the percentages of Black and Hispanic people getting vaccinated are still lagging due to their own personal hesitancy, whether it be for historic or other reasons, I don't know what more anyone can do to overcome that obstacle.

"I don't believe" is not an empirical statement. I would like data - if you have a source, I'd be happy to review it. The latter part of your statement is essentially a shrug of the shoulders. At least you didn't call them 'evil and/or stupid' though I'm not sure indifference is much better.

But there's no disputing that unvaccinated people are providing fertile ground not only for this resurgent spread of the virus, but for the potential emergence of more dangerous variants in the future; and it's also clear that those whose health and well-being is most likely to be put in immediate jeopardy by the unvaccinated are members of their own families and communities, with whom they regularly interact. Have you ever heard the old saying that "he who hesitates is lost"? In this case, unfortunately, it's not only the ones who hesitate that may ultimately be lost; it could be their loved ones as well. If that doesn't motivate them to get the shot, then I don't know what it will take.

Who says that there is no disputing unvaccinated people are providing fertile ground for the emergence of more dangerous variants? That's a lazy way to shutting down discussion, much as has been done nationwide on most communication channels. Science is a demonstrably messy business with entrenched (and often sclerotic) orthodoxies.

I will counter your "he who hesitates is lost" with "look before you leap". Both are reasonable approaches to changing circumstances. But, as a personal matter, I refuse to be stampeded.

And, the implicit threat of harm to loved ones, intentional or careless, is an emotional appeal that does not correspond to fact. Fact, in the age group 0-18 (the age group of all my grandkids), there have been 337 deaths with almost all of them being significantly health compromised. I am utterly unworried about covid exposure for my seven grandchildren. The flu is far more dangerous. Cancer kills more kids. Suicide kills more kids. The infection fatality rate does not really accelerate until age 60-65. Even then, most deaths have significant and substantial comorbidities. As I joked at the beginning of the pandemic, this disease is deadly to those with one foot in the casket and the other on a banana peel. For those individuals, extreme caution is recommended. Of course, I also joked that two 9mm rounds to the chest and a fever earned you a covid diagnosis. In Washington State and (I think) Colorado, that turned out to be true. I hate when stupid stomps on my jokes. It does, however, suggest that the data on cause of death is corrupted. Alameda County changing its death toll by 22 percent also calls into question the basic data that we have. But, hey, data is boring. "You're killing Grandma!" is so much more emotionally fulfilling.

I don't know the source of your data that shows such high infection rates among hospitalized patients in the UK and Israel -- if that's what it really means -- but the current data being reported in the US indicates that about 97% of those being hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated. That there have been some high profile "breakthrough" infections comes as no surprise; after all, we were always told that the vaccines were only about 94% effective against symptomatic infection -- which means, of course, that there will be a small number of vaccinated people who still contract the virus. But so far, at least in this country, the vaccinated people who get COVID aren't ending up in hospitals or morgues, except in rare cases. I just don't see how anyone can review the data and conclude that the potential adverse effects of getting vaccinated outweigh, or even come close to outweighing, the potential adverse effects of getting COVID without being vaccinated -- an imbalance that grows exponentially when you consider the potential impact of becoming infected and then passing the virus to a family member or friend who suffers severe, long-term COVID symptoms.

You might ask for the source of data. You might go search for it yourself. Knowledge is power, after all. And relying solely on US sources of information is, to put it politely, parochial.

I am explicitly questioning the "rare" aspect of breakthroughs. I think they are much higher, but we only see those where testing is active. More data is needed. I would like to see the results of a study, with results replicated by at least two other independent studies (the lack of replication of an enormous number of studies is a major scandal in the academic world, IMNSHO), of the effects of the vaccine/unvaccinated in the following groups:
Uninfected/unvaccinated
Uninfected/vaccinated
Infected/unvaccinated
Infected/vaccinated
If anyone knows of such studies, drop me a message, pretty please?
The vaccine has been generally very successful in mitigating the worst effects of covid. We have a point of agreement.

Good for you, that the effects of the virus were so inconsequential.

Since I was symptomatic to a slight degree, I actually represent a case (as does my wife whose symptoms were slightly more severe) that is at best average and perhaps worse than average when you consider persons asymptomatic. Most cases are this inconsequential.

But what about all those other people who have experienced, and may yet suffer, more serious symptoms and death?

Which persons? Why have they not taken responsibility for themselves and isolated? And, why does God try us so? At some point, human abilities end and nature/the fates/God prevails. Any other hypotheticals or rhetoricals that we should deploy?

And wholly apart from the unfortunate ones who get infected, what about all those people who are now being forced to postpone elective medical procedures because the hospitals are once again overflowing with COVID patients requiring intensive care?

Are the hospitals overflowing? We are at 1/5 the total infections of January and the vaccine has greatly reduced the number of hospitalizations. Why are hospitals overwhelmed? Or are they? I've seen three tweets (anecdote, not data) that, word for word, started with "I just left the ER. . . " and continued - word for word, mind you - for another 40 exactly matching words right down to the punctuation. I'm betting I could find more. Put me in the skeptical category on that one until I have hard data.

And, out of curiosity, why would a cancer ward be closed due to the ER being swamped? A pediatrics ward? Is hospital staffing that bad?

Here in Orlando, the resurgence of COVID has reached what the mayor yesterday characterized as "crisis mode"

A politician? That is your standard of unimpeachable integrity?

-- a pronouncement that promptly made the headlines on CNN.

Popular in airports around the country. Hold it, that contract got cancelled. Now popular with . . . nobody. Their ratings are cratering and at least one host violated covid protocols. Brooke Baldwin left and blasted them for sexism. When you make an appeal to authority, you might try something with some intellectual heft.

What about all the people who own or are employed by businesses that depend on the tourist industry, including the theme parks like Disney and Universal, and who now -- because of the unvaccinated who have dragged us all back down into this pit of misery -- will see their hopes for economic recovery abruptly curtailed?

Let the business decide. If Disney wants to enforce vaccine passports, let them. As a private business, they have that right. If they are keeping out the riff-raff, they should be just fine. (inserting eyeroll as I think the infection rate among vaccinated is higher than reported. Awaiting better data.)

What about our children and grandchildren whose educational, emotional, and social growth will once again be stifled, and perhaps permanently impaired, by an abnormal school experience.

Personally, I think that covid has been terrific at exposing the priorities of the public education unions and the unpleasant impulses of school districts. Where I live, schools were open for the full year - and disaster did not strike. Kids are socializing just fine. You should reform your local school district. I am encouraged by the large jump in homeschooling parents especially in minority families. Disclaimer: my wife and I homeschooled our kids.

As you say, "the list goes on and on": Innocent people, and society as a whole, will continue to suffer unnecessarily in countless ways because some people refuse to get vaccinated.

You do realize that you are commenting on vaccinated communities? The New York Yankees are fully vaccinated but had two 'breakthroughs'. You have proof that those breakthroughs were the direct result of unvaccinated but infected persons?
And yet again with the emotional appeal. Provide data. Count the ways. Itemized the sufferings. Establish the causal connections.

You can cite all the "reasons" you like to justify that refusal.

Indeed, I can, but I don't use "scare quotes". I simply state them.

But to me, whatever "reasons" might once have been credible are all just "excuses" now. And other than for the very few who can claim a legitimate medical exemption, I don't consider any of those excuses valid. If we are forced to endure another widespread shutdown, I don't want to hear any bellyaching from those who were so insistent on pursuing their own self-gratification that they couldn't be bothered to make the same small sacrifices that the majority of us were willing to make so that everyone could once again enjoy exercising their freedoms.

Stray, I have a lot of respect for you. On this, we will disagree. I will respect another person's autonomy and their choices. I will respect yours. I will make mine. I fully expect to be unemployed (temporarily only, as I am quite resourceful) shortly by edict from the State of Washington when they decide that all licensed professionals will be mandatorily vaccinated. Since, based on current data, I will refuse, my license will be revoked, and my industry will lose a top-performing player. You pay your money, you take your chances, and TANSTAAFL. I'm a big boy and don't need my hand held, nor shall I bellyache.

But, rather than treat those who disagree with you as infantile jerks interested in only self-gratification, might you consider them adults, with fully functional minds, that act in good faith?

Note to all: I'm writing this well past my bedtime. Typos and grammar errors may well be present and I apologize. I'm too tired to fix them now.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

So, narrowing. The gap did, and does, exist. Vaccinations in the black community barely reaches the level of even with regard to percentage of population. Since that gap does exist, do you agree with the original premise that those that did not vax were 'evil and/or stupid' but likely the result of other factors?



"I don't believe" is not an empirical statement. I would like data - if you have a source, I'd be happy to review it. The latter part of your statement is essentially a shrug of the shoulders. At least you didn't call them 'evil and/or stupid' though I'm not sure indifference is much better.



Who says that there is no disputing unvaccinated people are providing fertile ground for the emergence of more dangerous variants? That's a lazy way to shutting down discussion, much as has been done nationwide on most communication channels. Science is a demonstrably messy business with entrenched (and often sclerotic) orthodoxies.

I will counter your "he who hesitates is lost" with "look before you leap". Both are reasonable approaches to changing circumstances. But, as a personal matter, I refuse to be stampeded.

And, the implicit threat of harm to loved ones, intentional or careless, is an emotional appeal that does not correspond to fact. Fact, in the age group 0-18 (the age group of all my grandkids), there have been 337 deaths with almost all of them being significantly health compromised. I am utterly unworried about covid exposure for my seven grandchildren. The flu is far more dangerous. Cancer kills more kids. Suicide kills more kids. The infection fatality rate does not really accelerate until age 60-65. Even then, most deaths have significant and substantial comorbidities. As I joked at the beginning of the pandemic, this disease is deadly to those with one foot in the casket and the other on a banana peel. For those individuals, extreme caution is recommended. Of course, I also joked that two 9mm rounds to the chest and a fever earned you a covid diagnosis. In Washington State and (I think) Colorado, that turned out to be true. I hate when stupid stomps on my jokes. It does, however, suggest that the data on cause of death is corrupted. Alameda County changing its death toll by 22 percent also calls into question the basic data that we have. But, hey, data is boring. "You're killing Grandma!" is so much more emotionally fulfilling.




You might ask for the source of data. You might go search for it yourself. Knowledge is power, after all. And relying solely on US sources of information is, to put it politely, parochial.

I am explicitly questioning the "rare" aspect of breakthroughs. I think they are much higher, but we only see those where testing is active. More data is needed. I would like to see the results of a study, with results replicated by at least two other independent studies (the lack of replication of an enormous number of studies is a major scandal in the academic world, IMNSHO), of the effects of the vaccine/unvaccinated in the following groups:
Uninfected/unvaccinated
Uninfected/vaccinated
Infected/unvaccinated
Infected/vaccinated
If anyone knows of such studies, drop me a message, pretty please?
The vaccine has been generally very successful in mitigating the worst effects of covid. We have a point of agreement.



Since I was symptomatic to a slight degree, I actually represent a case (as does my wife whose symptoms were slightly more severe) that is at best average and perhaps worse than average when you consider persons asymptomatic. Most cases are this inconsequential.


Which persons? Why have they not taken responsibility for themselves and isolated? And, why does God try us so? At some point, human abilities end and nature/the fates/God prevails. Any other hypotheticals or rhetoricals that we should deploy?



Are the hospitals overflowing? We are at 1/5 the total infections of January and the vaccine has greatly reduced the number of hospitalizations. Why are hospitals overwhelmed? Or are they? I've seen three tweets (anecdote, not data) that, word for word, started with "I just left the ER. . . " and continued - word for word, mind you - for another 40 exactly matching words right down to the punctuation. I'm betting I could find more. Put me in the skeptical category on that one until I have hard data.

And, out of curiosity, why would a cancer ward be closed due to the ER being swamped? A pediatrics ward? Is hospital staffing that bad?



A politician? That is your standard of unimpeachable integrity?



Popular in airports around the country. Hold it, that contract got cancelled. Now popular with . . . nobody. Their ratings are cratering and at least one host violated covid protocols. Brooke Baldwin left and blasted them for sexism. When you make an appeal to authority, you might try something with some intellectual heft.



Let the business decide. If Disney wants to enforce vaccine passports, let them. As a private business, they have that right. If they are keeping out the riff-raff, they should be just fine. (inserting eyeroll as I think the infection rate among vaccinated is higher than reported. Awaiting better data.)



Personally, I think that covid has been terrific at exposing the priorities of the public education unions and the unpleasant impulses of school districts. Where I live, schools were open for the full year - and disaster did not strike. Kids are socializing just fine. You should reform your local school district. I am encouraged by the large jump in homeschooling parents especially in minority families. Disclaimer: my wife and I homeschooled our kids.


You do realize that you are commenting on vaccinated communities? The New York Yankees are fully vaccinated but had two 'breakthroughs'. You have proof that those breakthroughs were the direct result of unvaccinated but infected persons?
And yet again with the emotional appeal. Provide data. Count the ways. Itemized the sufferings. Establish the causal connections.


Indeed, I can, but I don't use "scare quotes". I simply state them.



Stray, I have a lot of respect for you. On this, we will disagree. I will respect another person's autonomy and their choices. I will respect yours. I will make mine. I fully expect to be unemployed (temporarily only, as I am quite resourceful) shortly by edict from the State of Washington when they decide that all licensed professionals will be mandatorily vaccinated. Since, based on current data, I will refuse, my license will be revoked, and my industry will lose a top-performing player. You pay your money, you take your chances, and TANSTAAFL. I'm a big boy and don't need my hand held, nor shall I bellyache.

But, rather than treat those who disagree with you as infantile jerks interested in only self-gratification, might you consider them adults, with fully functional minds, that act in good faith?

Note to all: I'm writing this well past my bedtime. Typos and grammar errors may well be present and I apologize. I'm too tired to fix them now.

I'm not even going to try to reply to this. I greatly appreciate Stray Gator's eloquent effort to do so. Because you cannot be convinced. I believe in expert judgement, with healthy, informed skepticism. And experts occasionally make mistakes, but their intentions are usually good and they are right a lot more often than they are wrong. I wouldn't care nearly as much if the beliefs you are espousing did not have an impact on my ability to live.

Can we now revert this thread back to the extremely helpful discussion that we had where we were fortunate to benefit from the insights of trained professionals who have been very kind to share their time and wisdom and people could share their experiences and not promote conspiracy theories?

[Bluedog]

This is what I've been saying with regards to guidelines/restrictions being needed the most in areas that historically have not (and thus will not) imposed them...

NY Times Morning Briefing:

"The C.D.C. has both a polarization problem and a communication problem.

Let’s start with the polarization problem: The parts of the country that would benefit most from a new crackdown on Covid-19 — including more frequent mask wearing — are also the places least likely to follow C.D.C. guidance. Many of these communities have been rejecting the advice of medical experts for months, on both masks and vaccines. Another C.D.C. announcement won’t change that.

Yet these are the communities that the C.D.C. is trying to influence the most. In its updated guidance yesterday, the agency did not recommend that all vaccinated people again begin wearing masks indoors. The C.D.C. said that only those vaccinated people living in “an area of substantial or high transmission” should do so and published a map online showing which areas qualify:


Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
As you can see, most of the Northeast and upper Midwest, as well as much of the West, have only “moderate” or “low” transmission. If that stays true, vaccinated residents in those places can generally remain unmasked, the C.D.C. says."

I am getting more and more bummed that my young children can't get "back to normal" because large swaths of the country are unvaccinated. My area of high vaccinations (87%) and low transmission is still masking up (in groceries etc.) and curbing certain behaviors even though according to CDC we're not in an area of substantial transmission but because there are some areas like that in the country, we oblige.

CDC guidance needs stronger wording as it relates to VACCINES. That's what going to make all the difference. Getting full authorization faster, come on FDA...they also need to provide a vision/roadmap for the future as people won't mask up/change their behaviors and need a "carrot"/understand the path.

[rsvman]

Ultrarunner actually may have some good points, but if he/she believes that most of the unvaccinated in this country are poor/racial minority/disadvantaged and/or previous infected, he/she is seriously underestimating the numbers of majority/not disadvantaged/middle class or higher/not previously infected people who are refusing based on completely false narratives that they have created for themselves and are disseminating among themselves.

It is also not true that only feeble/elderly/people with significant pre-existing morbidities are having bad outcomes from Covid, nor is it true that death is the only bad outcome. It is true that as a pediatrician I have been spared most of the horrible side of the pandemic; on the other hand we are still admitting teenagers to our hospital and to our ICU even this week, and we have had somewhere near 20 children who have been hospitalized with MIS-C (a post-infectious inflammatory disease that resembles Kawasaki disease), several of whom ended up in our ICU. I have also personally seen at least one child who is now suffering from long Covid.

There may have been places where the reporting of Covid deaths was overestimated, but that is certainly not the case everywhere. I am really tired of hearing that "the doctors just called every respiratory virus Covid." In my place of employ, we have a very sophisticated multiplex PCR test that assays for at least 14 respiratory viruses. We KNOW if you have rhinovirus or influenza A or parainfluenza types 1, 2, or 3, or RSV, or human metapneumovirus, or one of the old-school coronaviruses like OC43. We are NOT saying you have SARS-CoV-2 if you test positive for parainfluenza 1.

[PackMan97]

As I joked at the beginning of the pandemic, this disease is deadly to those with one foot in the casket and the other on a banana peel.

As for folks with one foot in my grave, back in 1991, my own father had a heart attack and had to be airlifted to Duke. If the week before he went to the hospital he had contracted COVID-19, he would have likely died as a result of the undiagnosed heart condition. Here we are, 30 years later and he's still alive.

Let's not pretend that "One foot in the grave and one on a banana peel" is anything other than what it is, saying we don't value the lives of those who are seriously ill. My father had plenty of good years left. I would have really been hard for my family if he had died while I was in high school and my sister in college instead of when both my sister and I are in our late 40's and his grandchildren have gotten a chance to know him and he them.

[SouthernDukie]

DISCLAIMER: I am not vaccinated, nor do I intend at this juncture to get vaccinated. I had Covid in October of 2020 (the greatest symptom of which was annoyance from my sweetie who quarantined with me) and I have tested positive for antibodies during blood donations since. One point lost in the noise of this fight is that we have a significant number of people with natural immunity. Just as an interesting point, Israel's rate of reinfection and hospitalization for previously infected and recovered individuals? Less than 1 percent.

NOTE: If the data changes, my opinion may as well.

Something to think about then. I personally know a lady (in her late 30's) who contracted the virus last March (airline stewardess). High fevers. She lost all taste/smell. Dizzy spells and all the other stuff too. She finally got taste and smell back 6 months later. She still hasn't regained all her cognitive abilities. She has to write everything down and short-term memory is shot.

Last month, just for the heck of it, she went to the doctor to get tested for antibodies. She had NONE. So she immediately went out to get the vaccine. I hope folk realize natural immunity is NOT locked in place for any length of time with this virus.

[Ultrarunner]

As for folks with one foot in my grave, back in 1991, my own father had a heart attack and had to be airlifted to Duke. If the week before he went to the hospital he had contracted COVID-19, he would have likely died as a result of the undiagnosed heart condition. Here we are, 30 years later and he's still alive.

Let's not pretend that "One foot in the grave and one on a banana peel" is anything other than what it is, saying we don't value the lives of those who are seriously ill. My father had plenty of good years left. I would have really been hard for my family if he had died while I was in high school and my sister in college instead of when both my sister and I are in our late 40's and his grandchildren have gotten a chance to know him and he them.

I have very carefully avoided impugning other with bad motives. Why do you feel it necessary to do so?
I value each life. I also understand that each life has an end and that we are intertwined. As a society we took actions, minus NY, MI, PA which deliberately put infected persons into nursing homes, to protect the elderly - and saw a spike in suicide and drug overdoses which cost many, many years of life, too.
If my dad or mom, both of whom have multiple comorbidities and are in their 80s, get covid, they will die. They know this, I know this. My dad's response was to the banana peel statement was to agree, but he offered that he didn't need a push to move things along.
Seemed reasonable. I like having him around.

[bundabergdevil]

All three of my nephews ages 10-12 went to the same summer camp. All three just got COVID. TBD on severity.

This is in Texas, FWIW.

[Bluedog]

All three of my nephews ages 10-12 went to the same summer camp. All three just got COVID. TBD on severity.

This is in Texas, FWIW.

I assume that means unmasked. I have friends in TX where kids have been unmasked all year at school. Hope the nephews are okay...

I will say that summer camp in TX outside with masks would be pretty much impossible though...indoors with a/c it would be possible.

[MChambers]

The Sturgis Superspreader Event, uh, Motorcycle Rally starts in 9 days. No mention of the coronavirus or masks on the website that I see, although the motto seems to be "WE'RE SPREADING OUR WINGS":

https://www.sturgismotorcyclerally.com/

[flyingdutchdevil]

Ultrarunner actually may have some good points, but if he/she believes that most of the unvaccinated in this country are poor/racial minority/disadvantaged and/or previous infected, he/she is seriously underestimating the numbers of majority/not disadvantaged/middle class or higher/not previously infected people who are refusing based on completely false narratives that they have created for themselves and are disseminating among themselves.

It is also not true that only feeble/elderly/people with significant pre-existing morbidities are having bad outcomes from Covid, nor is it true that death is the only bad outcome. It is true that as a pediatrician I have been spared most of the horrible side of the pandemic; on the other hand we are still admitting teenagers to our hospital and to our ICU even this week, and we have had somewhere near 20 children who have been hospitalized with MIS-C (a post-infectious inflammatory disease that resembles Kawasaki disease), several of whom ended up in our ICU. I have also personally seen at least one child who is now suffering from long Covid.

There may have been places where the reporting of Covid deaths was overestimated, but that is certainly not the case everywhere. I am really tired of hearing that "the doctors just called every respiratory virus Covid." In my place of employ, we have a very sophisticated multiplex PCR test that assays for at least 14 respiratory viruses. We KNOW if you have rhinovirus or influenza A or parainfluenza types 1, 2, or 3, or RSV, or human metapneumovirus, or one of the old-school coronaviruses like OC43. We are NOT saying you have SARS-CoV-2 if you test positive for parainfluenza 1.

I'd like to reply to this just so it gets more eyeballs.

Great post. Agree with every point. While I am not a doctor, I am in the healthcare space (biopharma). Most of my colleagues are MDs or have PhDs. A lot of them think like you.