PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Furniture]

Meanwhile the UK is easing their lockdown.

From Monday People will be allowed to meet in groups of six outdoors and can resume outdoor sports such as basketball, tennis and golf.

https://greensboro.com/news/world/uk...50058f15e.html

My sister lives in Rochester Kent and hasn’t seen her daughter who lives about 30 miles away since November. They still don’t know when they will be able see each other.

[CameronBlue]

A neighbor of my parents was there at Bataan.

Attachment 12809

My wife's father, Jesse, was on the Bataan Death March, spent 3.5 years in a Manchurian prison camp. When he died in 1984 his funeral was well-attended by those army buddies who remained behind. They told stories of Jesse's bravery in the face of prison guard abuse. Was liberated by the Ruskies who created accurate manifests of those liberated, you can easily find on-line. I stand in awe of my in-laws really. My wife has endured 25 years of debilitating diseases and "disabling" cardiac events. I know from whence she draws her fighting spirit.

[sagegrouse]

My wife's father, Jesse, was on the Bataan Death March, spent 3.5 years in a Manchurian prison camp. When he died in 1984 his funeral was well-attended by those army buddies who remained behind. They told stories of Jesse's bravery in the face of prison guard abuse. Was liberated by the Ruskies who created accurate manifests of those liberated, you can easily find on-line. I stand in awe of my in-laws really. My wife has endured 25 years of debilitating diseases and "disabling" cardiac events. I know from whence she draws her fighting spirit.

I had a colleague at work back in the 1980's who was on the Bataan Death March. One of the other soldiers was Harold Johnson, who became chief of staff of the Army in 1964 and, my colleague said, looked out for the survivors who were still on active duty.

Let me add this, to show how much we owe these heroes (from Wikipedia):

World War II
After the Battle of Bataan, [future Army chief Harold] Johnson became a prisoner of war (POW) of the Japanese on 9 April 1942. Participating in the Bataan Death March, Johnson was eventually imprisoned at Camp O'Donnell, Cabanatuan and Bilibid Prison. In December 1944, the Japanese attempted to transfer Johnson and 1600 other POWs out of the Philippines. On 14 December 1944, American fighter planes sank the Japanese ship Ōryoku Maru, killing over 300 of the POWs. Johnson survived and was eventually transferred to Japan. Unwilling to give up their POWs to the advancing Allies, Japan again transferred Johnson. Finally ending up in Korea, Johnson was liberated by the 7th Infantry Division on September 7, 1945.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I have found it interesting that people seem to think that 14 days after the second vaccination is some magical day where a light switch flips and everything changes. I have heard people basically say "Bill is so irresponsible - he visited his elderly grandmother on day 13 after he received his second shot. Why couldn't he wait one more day?" It's as if they think you go from 0% to 100% overnight. Obviously it is best to wait until day 14, but I assume the difference between day 13 and day 14 is not huge.

[OldPhiKap]

I have found it interesting that people seem to think that 14 days after the second vaccination is some magical day where a light switch flips and everything changes. I have heard people basically say "Bill is so irresponsible - he visited his elderly grandmother on day 13 after he received his second shot. Why couldn't he wait one more day?" It's as if they think you go from 0% to 100% overnight. Obviously it is best to wait until day 14, but I assume the difference between day 13 and day 14 is not huge.

We have a plague thread and a shot thread. I wonder if we should have a thread for the next stage — the re-emergence thread. I am interested in traveling when I can but that still seems to be a hodgepodge of local restrictions and percent of “openness.”

[rsvman]

I have found it interesting that people seem to think that 14 days after the second vaccination is some magical day where a light switch flips and everything changes. I have heard people basically say "Bill is so irresponsible - he visited his elderly grandmother on day 13 after he received his second shot. Why couldn't he wait one more day?" It's as if they think you go from 0% to 100% overnight. Obviously it is best to wait until day 14, but I assume the difference between day 13 and day 14 is not huge.

Honestly there probably isn't a great deal of difference between 7 days after the second shot and 14 days.

[MChambers]

I have found it interesting that people seem to think that 14 days after the second vaccination is some magical day where a light switch flips and everything changes. I have heard people basically say "Bill is so irresponsible - he visited his elderly grandmother on day 13 after he received his second shot. Why couldn't he wait one more day?" It's as if they think you go from 0% to 100% overnight. Obviously it is best to wait until day 14, but I assume the difference between day 13 and day 14 is not huge.

Right. The graphics I’ve seen show a gradual upward line, not a sharp change. 14 days is an arbitrary line drawing. I’d feel better at about 30 days. (Easy for me to say, since I’m exactly 30 out from my J&J shot.)

[budwom]

We have a plague thread and a shot thread. I wonder if we should have a thread for the next stage — the re-emergence thread. I am interested in traveling when I can but that still seems to be a hodgepodge of local restrictions and percent of “openness.”

It's going to be interesting...obvious signs that we're likely to see a big increase in cases (definitely true here) and yet fewer deaths and hospitalizations due to jabs...might cases get to very very high levels that we can (literally) live with?

I don't say that glibly, nor do I advocate it...but most states don't want to tighten things up any more...hard to see how this ends without a whole lot more cases...

Vermont had very very few cases last summer and Fall, just about the best in the country...now we're tenth worst, but there are only 26 people in the hospital, and four in the ICU...and the Gov feels content to continue to open things up gradually...

[OldPhiKap]

It's going to be interesting...obvious signs that we're likely to see a big increase in cases (definitely true here) and yet fewer deaths and hospitalizations due to jabs...might cases get to very very high levels that we can (literally) live with?

I don't say that glibly, nor do I advocate it...but most states don't want to tighten things up any more...hard to see how this ends without a whole lot more cases...

Vermont had very very few cases last summer and Fall, just about the best in the country...now we're tenth worst, but there are only 26 people in the hospital, and four in the ICU...and the Gov feels content to continue to open things up gradually...

Here’s my afternoon pondering:

All of the PKs will be fully vaccinated by mid-April. I am considering a trip for Memorial Day weekend (late May). None of the PKs are high-risk individuals with known co-morbidities.

1. Is that crazy? And if so, what metric should I use to know when to go?

2. Some places (like NYC) have restrictions and are somewhat closed down. Some places have fewer restrictions and more things open (sites and restaurants). If we are fully vaccinated, should it matter where we go?

[CDu]

Per the CDC, we are up to 72.4% of those 65+ having received at least one dose and 48.4% having received both doses through yesterday. One in 5 adults are fully vaccinated, and 36.2% have gotten one dose.

I will start to feel better once the elderly population has passed 75% full vaccinated. That should take a big chunk out of the high-risk population. Probably a few weeks away from that point.

[budwom]

Here’s my afternoon pondering:

All of the PKs will be fully vaccinated by mid-April. I am considering a trip for Memorial Day weekend (late May). None of the PKs are high-risk individuals with known co-morbidities.

1. Is that crazy? And if so, what metric should I use to know when to go?

2. Some places (like NYC) have restrictions and are somewhat closed down. Some places have fewer restrictions and more things open (sites and restaurants). If we are fully vaccinated, should it matter where we go?

We're doing the same pondering. We feel there is too much Covid around to get on airplanes, that's just our own thinking...we see ourselves travelling by plane in the Fall.
We do plan on some short trips by car to see and stay with friends who have also been jabbed...our thinking is since we've done this for over a year, why not sit back for a few months to see how things unfold...if cases weren't rising as they are, we wouldn't be so concerned.

But I completely understand why everyone has his or her own calculus on this...eventually we should see a lot more data vis a vis jabbed people, and whether they're getting infected or not...

[YmoBeThere]

Here’s my afternoon pondering:

All of the PKs will be fully vaccinated by mid-April. I am considering a trip for Memorial Day weekend (late May). None of the PKs are high-risk individuals with known co-morbidities.

1. Is that crazy? And if so, what metric should I use to know when to go?

2. Some places (like NYC) have restrictions and are somewhat closed down. Some places have fewer restrictions and more things open (sites and restaurants). If we are fully vaccinated, should it matter where we go?

The CDC's limited guidance in this area is IMHO a mistake.

[OldPhiKap]

We're doing the same pondering. We feel there is too much Covid around to get on airplanes, that's just our own thinking...we see ourselves travelling by plane in the Fall.
We do plan on some short trips by car to see and stay with friends who have also been jabbed...our thinking is since we've done this for over a year, why not sit back for a few months to see how things unfold...if cases weren't rising as they are, we wouldn't be so concerned.

But I completely understand why everyone has his or her own calculus on this...eventually we should see a lot more data vis a vis jabbed people, and whether they're getting infected or not...

The CDC's limited guidance in this area is IMHO a mistake.

Yeah, I’m confused.

We would still plan to wear masks in public and follow local guidelines, etc. But — are we generally free to travel? If not, what criteria governs?

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Yeah, I’m confused.

We would still plan to wear masks in public and follow local guidelines, etc. But — are we generally free to travel? If not, what criteria governs?

I'm still a little nervous about planes but there are plenty of people doing it. I take the virus extremely seriously and I have limited my activities a lot. That being said, I don't see why you can't do a lot of things as long as you are cautious about it. Last August we went to a resort near the ocean in Maine. Maine had very low infection rates and the resort wasn't at full capacity. We ate all meals in our room or distanced outdoors. We spent a lot of time in the hotel pool without masks - people did their best to stay distanced. I didn't love the level of safety, but it was fine, and we really needed the trip for our mental health.

The country is opening up and I think it is safe to go places and be smart about it. Other than theater (which is a huge attraction), New York City is pretty opened up but at low capacity, and should be more so by the time you travel. I took my kids to the Museum of Natural History about a month ago and it was great - very well spaced out, everyone had on masks, somewhat limited as to what we could do but that was fine.

The flip side of it is that we are now visiting family and on our way into town we drove past a bowling alley my kids enjoy on rainy days. We thought we might go if we felt they were keeping people separated by several lanes and requiring masks. I have never seen the parking lot more crowded. My wife and mother-in-law are two weeks post second shot, I got my second shot yesterday, and my kids are both under 10. We are not going near that place. It isn't worth it.

I am curious to hear what the experts think.

[YmoBeThere]

The CDC's limited guidance in this area is IMHO a mistake.

Link to that guidance here:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019..._1615143393075

[mpj96]

Here’s my afternoon pondering:

All of the PKs will be fully vaccinated by mid-April. I am considering a trip for Memorial Day weekend (late May). None of the PKs are high-risk individuals with known co-morbidities.

1. Is that crazy? And if so, what metric should I use to know when to go?

2. Some places (like NYC) have restrictions and are somewhat closed down. Some places have fewer restrictions and more things open (sites and restaurants). If we are fully vaccinated, should it matter where we go?

I would go to Negril, Jamaica.

[Bluedog]

We're doing the same pondering. We feel there is too much Covid around to get on airplanes, that's just our own thinking...we see ourselves travelling by plane in the Fall.
We do plan on some short trips by car to see and stay with friends who have also been jabbed...our thinking is since we've done this for over a year, why not sit back for a few months to see how things unfold...if cases weren't rising as they are, we wouldn't be so concerned.

But I completely understand why everyone has his or her own calculus on this...eventually we should see a lot more data vis a vis jabbed people, and whether they're getting infected or not...

Based on most research I've read, it's not necessarily the flight on the plane itself that's high risk given the great filtration systems they have on planes, and more about crowds at the airport/crowds during transit. Of course, the filtration system doesn't do you any good if somebody next to you had COVID and is coughing and sneezing.

I'm actually planning my first trip three weeks after shot #2 to a place that requires a negative COVID test but still in the U.S. I have been extremely cautious for the last year moreso than the majority of my close friends/family. But am a big traveler typically and deciding that at some point, the risk-reward is there. Plus, I'm a low risk cohort anyways. But, not going to be a "normal" vacation, and plan to rent a house and cook there with occasional daily excursions to go hiking, to the beach, etc. So, low risk activities. But others I know are doing their typical bar hopping, etc. Gotta decide for yourself what you're comfortable with.

[jv001]

Here’s my afternoon pondering:

All of the PKs will be fully vaccinated by mid-April. I am considering a trip for Memorial Day weekend (late May). None of the PKs are high-risk individuals with known co-morbidities.

1. Is that crazy? And if so, what metric should I use to know when to go?

2. Some places (like NYC) have restrictions and are somewhat closed down. Some places have fewer restrictions and more things open (sites and restaurants). If we are fully vaccinated, should it matter where we go?

Mrs. JV and I will be driving to Myrtle Beach, SC to celebrate our 27th anniversary on May 17th. Even though both of us have our vaccines and necessary time frame behind us, we'll still wear our masks when applicable. Weather should be great but can't say the same about our golf games.

[budwom]

Based on most research I've read, it's not necessarily the flight on the plane itself that's high risk given the great filtration systems they have on planes, and more about crowds at the airport/crowds during transit. Of course, the filtration system doesn't do you any good if somebody next to you had COVID and is coughing and sneezing.

I'm actually planning my first trip three weeks after shot #2 to a place that requires a negative COVID test but still in the U.S. I have been extremely cautious for the last year moreso than the majority of my close friends/family. But am a big traveler typically and deciding that at some point, the risk-reward is there. Plus, I'm a low risk cohort anyways. But, not going to be a "normal" vacation, and plan to rent a house and cook there with occasional daily excursions to go hiking, to the beach, etc. So, low risk activities. But others I know are doing their typical bar hopping, etc. Gotta decide for yourself what you're comfortable with.

Your first paragraph sums up my thinking...it's the overall queuing up involved with air travel that gives me pause (paws) but I robustly share your skepticism about the excellence of air handling on airplanes...all the filters and air flow don't assure me if the guy literally inches away from me is hacking and snorting for a couple hours.

New thought! Some friends and I have been comparing notes concerning what we'll do when we've been jabbed and waited a couple weeks. We all look forward to visits, parties, all the usual stuff we do (all with jabbed people), but many of us have independently reached the conclusion that we're probably going to dine out less for dinner, unless we're with friends. We'll still eat out a bunch, but over the past year my wife and I have expanded our repertoire of cooking, somewhat mastering a whole new bunch of things...so on a lot of occasions, the calculus will be why dine out and spend $125-150 for something that isn't particularly better than what we can cook at home? We'll still do a lot of lunches with friends (great post retirement option we have found) but almost certainly fewer dinners at restaurants unless they feature something we can't do well at home...

[OldPhiKap]

Mrs. JV and I will be driving to Myrtle Beach, SC to celebrate our 27th anniversary on May 17th. Even though both of us have our vaccines and necessary time frame behind us, we'll still wear our masks when applicable. Weather should be great but can't say the same about our golf games.

Yeah, thinking of a similar shindig with the kids on the Gulf coast the end of May.