PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[ClemmonsDevil]

Wonder what she thinks about sex. Ya know that can lead to dancing.

The old joke: Do you know why Baptists don't have sex standing up? They're afraid people will think they're dancing.

[MartyClark]

The old joke: Do you know why Baptists don't have sex standing up? They're afraid people will think they're dancing.

One more on Baptists ( I attend a Baptist church so hopefully I'm allowed)

Why do you always invite two Baptists with you to go fishing?

If you only invite one, he'll drink all your beer.

[DukieInKansas]

One more on Baptists ( I attend a Baptist church so hopefully I'm allowed)

Why do you always invite two Baptists with you to go fishing?

If you only invite one, he'll drink all your beer.

Can I share one from my Catholic brother-in-law?

How do you tell the Catholic church from the Baptist church?

The Catholics drink in front of the church and the Baptists drink behind it.

[Skydog]

Can I share one from my Catholic brother-in-law?

How do you tell the Catholic church from the Baptist church?

The Catholics drink in front of the church and the Baptists drink behind it.

My tiny Texas home town of LaWard (pop 250) was all Pentecostals and Baptists. The slightly less tiny town of Ganado (pop 3k) a few miles down the road was almost all Catholics. As a teenager I finally got to go with friends to various Catholic events/parties - I was sooo jealous of the fun they were having, especially the drinking! I was also jealous of their slate-clearing confession (at least that’s what it was in my mind).

[OldPhiKap]

My tiny Texas home town of LaWard (pop 250) was all Pentecostals and Baptists. The slightly less tiny town of Ganado (pop 3k) a few miles down the road was almost all Catholics. As a teenager I finally got to go with friends to various Catholic events/parties - I was sooo jealous of the fun they were having, especially the drinking! I was also jealous of their slate-clearing confession (at least that’s what it was in my mind).

There’s an old Irish (Catholic) toast:

“May you live 99 years, with an extra year to repent.”

So say us one, so say us all.

[sagegrouse]

My tiny Texas home town of LaWard (pop 250) was all Pentecostals and Baptists. The slightly less tiny town of Ganado (pop 3k) a few miles down the road was almost all Catholics. As a teenager I finally got to go with friends to various Catholic events/parties - I was sooo jealous of the fun they were having, especially the drinking! I was also jealous of their slate-clearing confession (at least that’s what it was in my mind).

I have a friend that grew up in in one of the smaller cities in Wisconsin. In high school he would try and go to all the Polish weddings, which were riotous affairs going way into the early hour. He was neither Polish nor Catholic, but he invented a Polish name for these events

[Bluedog]

I found this article about "cautious hugging" from CNN almost like a piece from the Onion to some extent...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/05/11/h...rnd/index.html

"A cautious hug is one that's outdoors, without face-to-face contact, that doesn't last very long, the physicians said. Anyone who's unvaccinated should use caution when hugging someone else, and they should wear a mask while doing it."
...

"Schaffner said: "I think two vaccinated people can sit on a couch together, shoulder to shoulder, enjoying a bowl of popcorn."
That was unthinkable even a few months ago."

[budwom]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/b...sinopharm.html

Seychelles is among the most highly vaccinated countries in the world, but they're finding only perhaps a 50% effectiveness rate for the vaccines, which were primarily Sinopharm from China (plus you're hungry an hour later).

Not the crispest article I've ever read, but interesting...

[Matches]

I found this article about "cautious hugging" from CNN almost like a piece from the Onion to some extent...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/05/11/h...rnd/index.html

"A cautious hug is one that's outdoors, without face-to-face contact, that doesn't last very long, the physicians said. Anyone who's unvaccinated should use caution when hugging someone else, and they should wear a mask while doing it."
..."

Thanks for the link - passing this along to my daughters.

Now what’s this about a pandemic?

[PensDevil]

Listening to the CDC panel on use of the Pfizer vaccine for ages 12-15 in the background while working. The public comment portion just wrapped up. The anti-vaxxers were out in force. I think the moderator mentioned something about a lottery system for choosing who gets to comment. I think all but one was anti-vaccine. I couldn't help but mentally picture all the panel members (not on camera) casually checking email and playing games on their phones while the comments went on and on.

[wilson]

Listening to the CDC panel on use of the Pfizer vaccine for ages 12-15 in the background while working. The public comment portion just wrapped up. The anti-vaxxers were out in force. I think the moderator mentioned something about a lottery system for choosing who gets to comment. I think all but one was anti-vaccine. I couldn't help but mentally picture all the panel members (not on camera) casually checking email and playing games on their phones while the comments went on and on.

Brighter, albeit purely anecdotal news: as of the end of this week, somewhere around 40% of my students (who are all in the 12-15 age bracket) will have already begun their vaccination process. Quite a few more have plans for next week.

[rsvman]

CDC issuing new guidance about getting other vaccines along with Covid vaccination, now saying no waiting period is necessary and that one can receive Covid vaccination and other vaccines on the same day.

Still asking for 90-day wait between the post-infectious inflammatory condition (called MIS-C in kids and MIS-A in adults) and vaccination.

[Bluedog]

I feel like there is a disconnect right now between: case counts/online tracking sites and the general feel of the populace/restrictions being lifted. Let me explain...

Let's take Cook County, IL a city and state that have been taking a very cautious/restrictive approach through it all.

The NY Times COVID tracker states that there is "very high Covid-19 transmission" and that "unvaccinated people are at a very high risk." The current case counts are similar to where they were in August 2020 during the "summer surge".
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

Brown's widely utilized "Risk Level Dashboard" gives Cook County an "Orange" rating (14.6 cases per 100k), which they say indicates "accelerated spread" and "Stay at home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs advised."
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metr...d-suppression/

With that backdrop, IL and Chicago are lifting restrictions as it relates to capacity limits and have entered a "bridge phase" with the expectation to "fully re-open" in about a month (masks still required after that in all likelihood). The Brown dashboard actually indicates that Michigan and RI should STILL be under a stay-at-home order while 27 other states should consider it.

Are the models/numbers outdated and need to be updated? That is, they were based on what we thought at the time (and without vaccines) and need to be updated, particularly given the vast majority of at-risk people have been vaccinated at this point so the prior thresholds don't make sense anymore given it's largely young/healthy people getting infected and the hospitalizations and death counts continue to decline. Or is the public perception/gov't entities jumping the gun and we actually are in closer than we'd like state to August 2020 but we've simply grown accustomed to "living with it" and have "pandemic fatigue" and see downwards trends so are being optimistic for the future?

There just seems to be a HUGE disconnect to me...even in a state that has been VERY cautious in re-opening anything.

As someone who is vaccinated and has been following case/death counts, I personally HAVE taken a shift in mindset recently that is a far cry from where I was in August 2020. Not going crazy, but certainly starting to feel more comfortable being "out in the world" and outside my home to see others. But the case counts numbers don't align with that change in mindset necessarily. I'm certainly not going in unmasked groups with unvaccinated people, but have seen vaccinated family members unmasked now.

Am I being ridiculous or are others noticing this seeming disconnect?

[budwom]

^ the NY Times still has our county has "high risk" yet the virus cases are VERY few right now, stuff will be opening up sooner than expected...I agree that some of the criteria do not jibe with each other...

[CDu]

I feel like there is a disconnect right now between: case counts/online tracking sites and the general feel of the populace/restrictions being lifted. Let me explain...

Let's take Cook County, IL a city and state that have been taking a very cautious/restrictive approach through it all.

The NY Times COVID tracker states that there is "very high Covid-19 transmission" and that "unvaccinated people are at a very high risk." The current case counts are similar to where they were in August 2020 during the "summer surge".
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

Brown's widely utilized "Risk Level Dashboard" gives Cook County an "Orange" rating (14.6 cases per 100k), which they say indicates "accelerated spread" and "Stay at home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs advised."
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metr...d-suppression/

With that backdrop, IL and Chicago are lifting restrictions as it relates to capacity limits and have entered a "bridge phase" with the expectation to "fully re-open" in about a month (masks still required after that in all likelihood). The Brown dashboard actually indicates that Michigan and RI should STILL be under a stay-at-home order while 27 other states should consider it.

Are the models/numbers outdated and need to be updated? That is, they were based on what we thought at the time (and without vaccines) and need to be updated, particularly given the vast majority of at-risk people have been vaccinated at this point so the prior thresholds don't make sense anymore given it's largely young/healthy people getting infected and the hospitalizations and death counts continue to decline. Or is the public perception/gov't entities jumping the gun and we actually are in closer than we'd like state to August 2020 but we've simply grown accustomed to "living with it" and have "pandemic fatigue" and see downwards trends so are being optimistic for the future?

There just seems to be a HUGE disconnect to me...even in a state that has been VERY cautious in re-opening anything.

As someone who is vaccinated and has been following case/death counts, I personally HAVE taken a shift in mindset recently that is a far cry from where I was in August 2020. Not going crazy, but certainly starting to feel more comfortable being "out in the world" and outside my home to see others. But the case counts numbers don't align with that change in mindset necessarily. I'm certainly not going in unmasked groups with unvaccinated people, but have seen vaccinated family members unmasked now.

Am I being ridiculous or are others noticing this seeming disconnect?

I hadn't noticed the disconnect, but I'd a disagreement with the NY Times article. August 2020 was after the "summer surge", and was entering the best periods of low cases since the beginning of the pandemic (especially when you consider that in the Spring of 2020 we were most certainly vastly underestimating case counts). I'd also note that a key difference between August 2020 and now is that back in August we had no vaccines available, so everyone was still at basically 100% risk. As of today, about 60% of the adult population (~85% of the 65+ population) have received at least one dose, and nearly half of adults (over 70% of those 65+) have been fully vaccinated. Case counts have been declining sharply over the past month or so in spite of places opening up, which seems to suggest that the vaccines are doing their job.

I'm not saying folks should go making out with everyone they see, but it's understandable why there is a difference in mindset now than back in August 2020.

[Bluedog]

I hadn't noticed the disconnect, but I'd a disagreement with the NY Times article. August 2020 was after the "summer surge", and was entering the best periods of low cases since the beginning of the pandemic (especially when you consider that in the Spring of 2020 we were most certainly vastly underestimating case counts). I'd also note that a key difference between August 2020 and now is that back in August we had no vaccines available, so everyone was still at basically 100% risk. As of today, about 60% of the adult population (~85% of the 65+ population) have received at least one dose, and nearly half of adults (over 70% of those 65+) have been fully vaccinated. Case counts have been declining sharply over the past month or so in spite of places opening up, which seems to suggest that the vaccines are doing their job.

I'm not saying folks should go making out with everyone they see, but it's understandable why there is a difference in mindset now than back in August 2020.

Yep, I agree and so does the CDC with their bombshell release that "anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities -- large or small -- without wearing a mask or physical distancing."
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/13/healt...mIEn50eSqULuSQ

Seems like a gamechanger as it relates to guidance to me...Could have major impacts at the state and local levels, I expect.

[budwom]

Yep, I agree and so does the CDC with their bombshell release that "anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities -- large or small -- without wearing a mask or physical distancing."
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/13/healt...mIEn50eSqULuSQ

Seems like a gamechanger as it relates to guidance to me...Could have major impacts at the state and local levels, I expect.

The one fly in this otherwise pleasant ointment is that if you are, for example, in a grocery store, do you assume that the maskless guy next to you has had his shots? Or is he a dolt who refused to be vaccinated? To me, that was the upside of having everyone wear masks...though if cases continue to fall, perhaps we can drop masks completely.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Yep, I agree and so does the CDC with their bombshell release that "anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities -- large or small -- without wearing a mask or physical distancing."
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/13/healt...mIEn50eSqULuSQ

Seems like a gamechanger as it relates to guidance to me...Could have major impacts at the state and local levels, I expect.

I am curious for an expert opinion on how we manage this if we have kids under 12. Mrs. CNC and I have been double vaxxed since March. Kids are in elementary school so too young. We are definitely loosening things up a bit more but are hesitant to go too far since they can't get the vaccine. I know that the impact on kids is generally a lot less than adults, but still would rather keep them away from it. So we are definitely not in shut down mode (kids go to school full time, take brief trips on public transit while masked, eating outside if the situation looks OK), but we feel like we should be more cautious than those in households where everyone has been fully vaccinated.

[House P]

I feel like there is a disconnect right now between: case counts/online tracking sites and the general feel of the populace/restrictions being lifted. Let me explain...

Let's take Cook County, IL a city and state that have been taking a very cautious/restrictive approach through it all.

The NY Times COVID tracker states that there is "very high Covid-19 transmission" and that "unvaccinated people are at a very high risk." The current case counts are similar to where they were in August 2020 during the "summer surge".
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...vid-cases.html

Brown's widely utilized "Risk Level Dashboard" gives Cook County an "Orange" rating (14.6 cases per 100k), which they say indicates "accelerated spread" and "Stay at home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs advised."
https://globalepidemics.org/key-metr...d-suppression/

...

Are the models/numbers outdated and need to be updated? That is, they were based on what we thought at the time (and without vaccines) and need to be updated, particularly given the vast majority of at-risk people have been vaccinated at this point so the prior thresholds don't make sense anymore given it's largely young/healthy people getting infected and the hospitalizations and death counts continue to decline. Or is the public perception/gov't entities jumping the gun and we actually are in closer than we'd like state to August 2020 but we've simply grown accustomed to "living with it" and have "pandemic fatigue" and see downwards trends so are being optimistic for the future?

It seems to me that any risk level estimate these days should be based primarily on the percentage of the population (fully?) vaccinated, with case rate and percent test positivity as secondary measures.

For example, the (outdated?) dashboard you reference classifies Massachusetts as "orange" (accelerated spread) and Alabama as "yellow" (community spread). This is based on a 7-day average of confirmed cases per 100K of 12.0 in MA and 6.8 in AL.

However, it is hard to make the case that MA should be at a higher risk level than GA when you consider the following.

Percent of population vaccinated - MA: 61% at least one shot, 44% fully vaccinated
Percent of population vaccinated - AL: 34% at least one shot, 24% fully vaccinated

Percent of tests which are positive - MA: 1.2%
Percent of tests which are positive - AL: 10.7%

Hopefully the following statement isn't outside the bounds of this forum, but I really wish that governors had tied key reopening milestones to vaccine adoption. Is there any doubt that vaccine rates in Alabama would be significantly higher if the governor declared that college football could return with full capacity crowds if vaccine rates reached 75% by Aug 1?

[Bluedog]

The one fly in this otherwise pleasant ointment is that if you are, for example, in a grocery store, do you assume that the maskless guy next to you has had his shots? Or is he a dolt who refused to be vaccinated? To me, that was the upside of having everyone wear masks...though if cases continue to fall, perhaps we can drop masks completely.

I agree, but according to the CDC guidance, I guess those vaccinated shouldn't be concerned with that? So, the maskless guy is only possibly hurting himself if he's not vaccinated. At least, that's the guidance. It doesn't say "no masks only when around other vaccinated people." It says "no masks needed, period."

I, for one, as a fully vaccinated person WILL continue to wear a mask in public/inside buildings because of the social cues. Well, around me, you still have to. But even if that changed, I think I still would.