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  1. #9401
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Another lockdown?

    Opinion piece in the NYT by Michael Osterholm, respected epidemiologist, and Neal Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed:

    "In just weeks we could almost stop the viral fire that has swept across this country over the past six months and continues to rage out of control. It will require sacrifice but save many thousands of lives.

    We believe the choice is clear. We can continue to allow the coronavirus to spread rapidly throughout the country or we can commit to a more restrictive lockdown, state by state, for up to six weeks to crush the spread of the virus to less than one new case per 100,000 people per day."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/o...ent-death.html

    I agree with them, but think our country has already made its choice and will not reverse course.

  2. #9402
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I'm sure the quarter million bikers in Sturgis will comply with a second lockdown. They're rational sorts.

  3. #9403
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by freshmanjs View Post
    This assumes that the starting point for herd immunity was 0. That may be true, but it may not be true. If it’s not true, all of the conclusions would be different.
    It may be true that the starting point for herd immunity isn't zero. If we knew this then conclusions would be different.

    It may be true that immunity isn't permanent. If we knew this then conclusions would be different.

    There is much we don't know, but we still need to plan how to handle the pandemic. How does one balance the different possibilities and plan a strategy? Hope for the best? Expect the worst? WAGs, EWAGs?

  4. #9404
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Meanwhile, North Paulding High School in Georgia has taken swift and decisive action after the embarrassing photo surfaced of a flock of kids in the hallway, tightly bunched, with precious few masks in sight:

    They suspended the sophomore who took the photo...that should fix the problem!
    Nine cases (that they know about) by the end of week one.

    https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/pau...F3TX5MMQD6E3Y/

  5. #9405
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Nationwide Trends in COVID-19

    New cases (seven-day average) have declined every day for 14 days in a row, using Worldometers data. Current figure is 54.8 thousand, 20 percent below the peak. New deaths are also declining, a more recent phenomenon -- four days in a row. Current seven-day average is still way too high -- 1,027 deaths.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  6. #9406
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    The pandemic has been great for people moving into VT to get away from cities...no exact figures on how many people have arrived, but this article says half have college degrees, and beyond that half, 42% have advanced degrees...and two thirds are under age 50...just what an aging state needs.

    Real estate people I know are pretty happy about this...https://vtdigger.org/2020/08/09/mont...ation-decline/

  7. #9407
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    Durham

    NYT editorial about vaccine

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/o...cy-trials.html

    By an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida.

    Key quote:

    We must resist the desire to rush out a product. Creating vaccines is hard, and we should be prepared for the reality that some promising ones will not meet the F.D.A.’s criteria. Researchers and the government should also commit to transparency so that people can see the results for themselves to understand the regulatory decisions.

  8. #9408
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    The pandemic has been great for people moving into VT to get away from cities...no exact figures on how many people have arrived, but this article says half have college degrees, and beyond that half, 42% have advanced degrees...and two thirds are under age 50...just what an aging state needs.

    Real estate people I know are pretty happy about this...https://vtdigger.org/2020/08/09/mont...ation-decline/
    There has been a measurable flow in the direction of the Rocky Mountain communities s the real estate folks will tell you: Some from Denver and environs (known as the "Front Range") and some from elsewhere. The Front Range migration to the mountains has been going on for some time but now has greatly accelerated, as families relocate here and the working members of the family work remotely at least several days a week and perhaps spend part of the week in Denver, Boulder, etc.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  9. #9409
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    There has been a measurable flow in the direction of the Rocky Mountain communities s the real estate folks will tell you: Some from Denver and environs (known as the "Front Range") and some from elsewhere. The Front Range migration to the mountains has been going on for some time but now has greatly accelerated, as families relocate here and the working members of the family work remotely at least several days a week and perhaps spend part of the week in Denver, Boulder, etc.
    If you can work from home, moving from cities to a rural environment is becoming very attractive...not to mention that for people used to big city prices, homes in many (but not all) rural areas are quite inexpensive.

  10. #9410
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    I went to church in person for the first time since February today. As mentioned, I play the organ, so nobody got within about ten feet of me. There were only 22 people there and everybody was masked. I actually felt pretty safe there and it went ok, altough I wish I had practiced a couple of times during the break, lol.

    But everybody seemed pretty happy go be there and they all thanked me for playing the organ. There is something to hearing the hymns played on the organ that means a lot to church-going people.

  11. #9411
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Oregon
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    There has been a measurable flow in the direction of the Rocky Mountain communities s the real estate folks will tell you: Some from Denver and environs (known as the "Front Range") and some from elsewhere. The Front Range migration to the mountains has been going on for some time but now has greatly accelerated, as families relocate here and the working members of the family work remotely at least several days a week and perhaps spend part of the week in Denver, Boulder, etc.
    And from California to Nevada. Started well before COVID, but it's a trend becoming a tsunami.

  12. #9412
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Maggie Valley, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I went to church in person for the first time since February today. As mentioned, I play the organ, so nobody got within about ten feet of me. There were only 22 people there and everybody was masked. I actually felt pretty safe there and it went ok, altough I wish I had practiced a couple of times during the break, lol.

    But everybody seemed pretty happy go be there and they all thanked me for playing the organ. There is something to hearing the hymns played on the organ that means a lot to church-going people.

    Went back today for the first time as well. As of July 5th we started meeting again, however it is outside on lawn chairs in the parking lot, everyone in masks, and observing social distancing. Felt like that was a reasonable plan and felt safe as well. (Also, RSV, in case you were wondering, No, we did not have an organ out there).

  13. #9413
    We are still having online worship but our organist comes in and records the music so we still get to hear the pipe organ. Today's offertory was really fun - Joshua Fit the Battle of Jericho arranged for piano and accordian. We have lots if talent in our congregation.

  14. #9414
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Pandemic silver lining! I live in an inner suburb less than a mile from the Boston city limit. I would dearly love to move back to Cambridge. (I never wanted to leave in the first place but a 2 bdr townhouse with 4 kids was untenable.)

  15. #9415
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Brooklet, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I went to church in person for the first time since February today. As mentioned, I play the organ, so nobody got within about ten feet of me. There were only 22 people there and everybody was masked. I actually felt pretty safe there and it went ok, altough I wish I had practiced a couple of times during the break, lol.

    But everybody seemed pretty happy go be there and they all thanked me for playing the organ. There is something to hearing the hymns played on the organ that means a lot to church-going people.
    Did you start off the service with a little Toccata and Fugue in D minor?

  16. #9416
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Oregon
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Opinion piece in the NYT by Michael Osterholm, respected epidemiologist, and Neal Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed:

    "In just weeks we could almost stop the viral fire that has swept across this country over the past six months and continues to rage out of control. It will require sacrifice but save many thousands of lives.

    We believe the choice is clear. We can continue to allow the coronavirus to spread rapidly throughout the country or we can commit to a more restrictive lockdown, state by state, for up to six weeks to crush the spread of the virus to less than one new case per 100,000 people per day."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/o...ent-death.html

    I agree with them, but think our country has already made its choice and will not reverse course.
    not able to read it due to the firewall, but it seems a very odd position for an economist to take.

  17. #9417
    Quote Originally Posted by Neals384 View Post
    not able to read it due to the firewall, but it seems a very odd position for an economist to take.
    Why is it an odd position? Concern over the virus is clearly limiting economic activity, Sturgis notwithstanding(which is likely to see crowds 1/2 the normal size). Disney announced today that they are scaling back hours at its Florida locations due to lack of attendance. Address the virus/pandemic, economic activity picks up. Hardly a new thought here in this thread.

  18. #9418
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Neals384 View Post
    not able to read it due to the firewall, but it seems a very odd position for an economist to take.
    Essentially eradicating the spread of COVID through another lock-down would be a short-term economic pain in order to enable larger-term economic normalcy. The restaurant, hotel, travel, and tourism industries will never approach a return to normalcy until the spread of the virus is significantly reduced.

    Putting aside the humanitarian reasons to slow the spread, it is also sound economic theory IMO. When the White House held round table discussions with industry leaders back in the spring, the WH was hoping the leaders would all endorse opening up the economy ASAP. Instead, the industry leaders generally advised to control the spread of the virus first in order to allow a resumption of near-normal economic activity. That advice was generally ignored, and here we are.

  19. #9419
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Why is it an odd position? Concern over the virus is clearly limiting economic activity, Sturgis notwithstanding(which is likely to see crowds 1/2 the normal size). Disney announced today that they are scaling back hours at its Florida locations due to lack of attendance. Address the virus/pandemic, economic activity picks up. Hardly a new thought here in this thread.
    Carowinds amusement park near Charlotte announced that they will remain closed for the rest of the year.

  20. #9420
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Essentially eradicating the spread of COVID through another lock-down would be a short-term economic pain in order to enable larger-term economic normalcy. The restaurant, hotel, travel, and tourism industries will never approach a return to normalcy until the spread of the virus is significantly reduced.

    Putting aside the humanitarian reasons to slow the spread, it is also sound economic theory IMO. When the White House held round table discussions with industry leaders back in the spring, the WH was hoping the leaders would all endorse opening up the economy ASAP. Instead, the industry leaders generally advised to control the spread of the virus first in order to allow a resumption of near-normal economic activity. That advice was generally ignored, and here we are.
    I'm still somewhat (but not entirely) amazed that this was not clear to everyone in authority back in March. Had we taken our medicine then, we'd be looking at a far rosier Fall. The current course could have us stumbling indefinitely.

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