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  1. #7601
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    The number of people hospitalized with COVID in the South and West has doubled since mid June and shows no signs of letting up. So, it is pretty likely that the virus is more widespread in the South and West today than it was in May.

    Here is a plot of new cases and current hospitalizations among the 16 Southern and Western states which are responsible for ~80% of new cases in the US.

    Attachment 10984



    The hospitalization curve seems to match the curve of new cases. The only difference is that the rise in hospitalizations seems to lag the rise in cases by ~10 days.

    Here is what you get if you shift the hospitalization curve by 11 days.

    Attachment 10985

    The increase in hospitalizations between June 15 and July 2 is almost an exact match of the increase in cases between June 4 and June 21. If you consider that the number of new cases in these states has more than doubled since June 21, it seems reasonable to predict that the number of hospitalizations will continue to increase, even if the 1:1 relationship with a 10 day offset doesn't continue.


    EDIT: I just realized that these graphs are misleading because Florida reports new cases but not hospitalizations. If you remove Florida from the "new cases" curve you still see a relationship between increase in cases and increase in hospitalizations. However, the shift is closer to 2 weeks than 11 days.
    Florida as state does not report current hospitalization. However, Seminole County FL (where I live NE suburbs of Orlando and Sanford with a total population of ~460,000) does.

    sem county hosp.jpg

    Entire Seminole County dashboard here. Cases in FL and Seminole started spiking the around June 10 and really started spiking around the 18th. The hospitalization graph shows hospitalized cases per day and is a few days behind. As of today, Seminole County has 121 COVID patients in hospital, another 41 probable (no positive test yet) and 15 in ICU (not shown here but confirmed by County update). So yes, the hospitalizations are rising here in FL and lagging about 10 days behind cases as House P showed above
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

    "Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook

  2. #7602
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    I wasn't suggesting it was a good study. I was only suggesting that, because it supported what Trump had been saying early on, I expect it to appear in one of his tweets in the very near future, if only as a 'I told you so' sort of fashion.
    I agree on that point.
    Last edited by tbyers11; Yesterday at 04:47 PM.
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

    "Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook

  3. #7603
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Newer study reported today that patients who got hydroxychloroquine had a better survival rate than those who did not. I suspect this is going to get a lot of press over the next little while, and we might as well throw another log on the fire that is mistrust of science, get it up to a nice roar.

    I haven't been able to actually see the data or how they were collected. The authors say it is not particularly surprising that they reached a different conclusion from that of other studies; they base this on the fact that they started hydroxychloroquine early in the process, rather than waiting until the patients were on death's door. They believe that hydroxychloroquine is likely helpful if started in the earlier stages. They also said that they very carefully selected patients for the drug to minimize heart side effects, and that they followed them for cardiac side effects very closely.

    Look for a lot of "I told you so" from Trump in the near future...
    Quote Originally Posted by tbyers11 View Post
    Agree that this is of limited value since it was a retrospective study. Earlier administration of HCQ could help but there are too many confounding variables to know if the difference was due to HCQ. They also pre-selected their patients without known heart issues to receive the HCQ. In the other studies, that caused the FDA to remove emergency use status, the increased risk of cardiac events was the big issue.

    Here is a CNN link raising many of the issues and a link to the paper itself.

    I don't think should get much press going forward because it is not a sound, controlled study. The fact that they administered early and found benefit could be of use to warrant a further study.
    There is a very interesting political current running beneath this issue, not national politics per se, but the politics of hospital funding and administration.

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...te/5365090002/

    The study was performed by Henry Ford Health System, one of the big hospital systems in metro Detroit. This directly conflicts with studies at UM Medical system, and 2 of the largest hospital systems (Beaumont, St John's Mercy) do not offer the treatment. One other hospital system (Detroit Medical Center) provides it to anyone they can. I don't have individual numbers, but the areas serviced by Henry Ford and DMC are more urban and were much harder hit and had the highest death rates.

    How much of the report of this new study about optics, policy justification, and/or funding?

  4. #7604
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by tbyers11 View Post
    Agree that this is of limited value since it was a retrospective study. Earlier administration of HCQ could help but there are too many confounding variables to know if the difference was due to HCQ. They also pre-selected their patients without known heart issues to receive the HCQ. In the other studies, that caused the FDA to remove emergency use status, the increased risk of cardiac events was the big issue.

    Here is a CNN link raising many of the issues and a link to the paper itself.
    Washington Post

    Researchers retract study that found big risks in using hydroxychloroquine to treat covid-19


    By Laurie McGinley
June 4 at 6:36 PM ET

    Three of the authors of a study that found the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine was dangerous for hospitalized covid-19 patients retracted it Thursday, saying they could “no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.”
The retraction notice was posted by the medical journal Lancet, which had published the study on May 22.

    Almost immediately after the study’s publication, critics raised questions about the data and analysis provided by a private company, Chicago-based Surgisphere, and its founder, Sepan Desai. Another study that also relied on the database — one that looked at the effects of blood-pressure medications on covid-19 patients — also was retracted Thursday, by the New England Journal of Medicine.

    The retractions raised concerns in the medical and scientific community that researchers and even prestigious medical journals are lowering their standards in a rush to publish during the pandemic.
“I’m concerned that the usual standards, both at the level of the journals and at the level of authors and faculty rushing to get high-impact work published, has meant that our usual standards have fallen,” said Steven Joffe, a medical ethicist at the University of Pennsylvania.

    The authors of the Lancet study said in their statement that they launched an independent third-party peer review of Surgisphere, with the consent of Desai, to confirm the completeness and accuracy of the data and to replicate its analysis.
But, they said, the company declined to provide the full data set to the reviewer, saying it would violate client agreements and confidentiality requirements.
“As such, our reviewers were not able to conduct an independent and private peer review and therefore notified us of their withdrawal from the peer-review process,” said the statement by the lead author, Mandeep R. Mehra, a Harvard Medical School professor and physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and two other authors.


    The authors apologized to the editors of the journal and its readers for causing “any embarrassment or inconvenience.”
The study had a major impact, prompting the World Health Organization to temporarily suspend use of hydroxychloroquine in a clinical trial on covid-19 treatments, and France banned its use in covid-19 patients.

  5. #7605
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    COVID-19 New Cases by State for July 2

    Overall figures are new cases at 54,000 and new deaths at 800.

    Her are leaders in new cases per million population:
    Code:
    AZ	609
    FL	442
    LA	372
    AL	358
    SC	356
    NE	320
    MS	307
    KS	290
    TN	267
    GA	262
    TX	253
    ID	224
    DE	197
    NC	196
    And the caveats include, so I understand, that Kansas reports only on alternate days. There may be other anomalies as well. Arizona numbers are exceptionally high. Louisiana peaked early, due apparently to Mardi Gras celebrations, but is having a resurgence. States outside the Sun Belt include Nebraska, Kansas, Idaho and Delaware.

    Ranking based on total cases yesterday. July 2:
    Code:
    FL	9,488
    TX	7,343
    CA	4,509
    AZ	4,433
    GA	2,784
    NC	2,054
    SC	1,831
    TN	1,822
    AL	1,754
    LA	1,728
    OH	1,597
    NY	1,134
    The three most populous states are at the top of the list, followed closely by Arizona. All sun Belt, except that Ohio and New York round out the top dozen.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  6. #7606
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    The three most populous states are at the top of the list, followed closely by Arizona. All sun Belt, except that Ohio and New York round out the top dozen.
    Clearly, this is an indoor-driven phenomenon. And is not the flu. It did not disappear miraculously when it warmed up. As us southerners moved indoors with the air conditioning, COVID came to visit. Any leader, all the way down to the county/municipal level, who does not mandate masks (which can be policed/enforced, I don't know how you do that with social distancing) is playing a fool's game. But this is not a game, people are dying.

    I almost shudder to think how it will come roaring back this fall in the north and in classrooms (both elhi and college) across the country.

  7. #7607
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    I heard a disquieting story on NPR this morning concerning OSHA. It asserts that OSHA has no enforceable regulations concerning COVID. When a complaint arrives they send a letter to the company involved urging them to try and do better. The company sends a letter back saying they will try. Then the case is closed without investigation.

    Linky: Many Say OSHA Not Protecting Workers During COVID-19 Pandemic

    Does anyone have any knowledge on this issue?

  8. #7608
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    https://www.wavy.com/news/health/cor...ulative-cases/

    Hampton Roads seven day average of new cases has nearly doubled from two weeks ago. Another 100+ new cases today.
    More than 200 new cases reported in Hampton Roads today:

    https://www.wavy.com/news/health/cor...ase-statewide/
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  9. #7609
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Well

    Quote Originally Posted by camion View Post
    I heard a disquieting story on NPR this morning concerning OSHA. It asserts that OSHA has no enforceable regulations concerning COVID. When a complaint arrives they send a letter to the company involved urging them to try and do better. The company sends a letter back saying they will try. Then the case is closed without investigation.

    Linky: Many Say OSHA Not Protecting Workers During COVID-19 Pandemic

    Does anyone have any knowledge on this issue?
    I don't really have much knowledge on the issue, but I can tell you from looking at www.osha.gov that there don't seem to be any specific regulations for COVID. On that site, there is some unenforceable "guidance" and also there is some discussion of how existing OSHA rules apply to covid-19 issues. I don't know enough to say whether the existing rules are sufficient or whether the agency should be doing more.

  10. Just returned from a week at the OBX.

    The beach was packed with people most days in Kill Devil Hills. Most restaurants were open and allowed indoor seating. Patrons were asked to wear masks indoors and I saw most people abiding.

    For the most part, people did a good job at social distancing in public and at the beach. Restaurant seats and tables were spaced out appropriately. I did see lots of older (higher risk) folks out and about at the beach and in public which I was surprised at.

  11. #7611
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    I don't really have much knowledge on the issue, but I can tell you from looking at www.osha.gov that there don't seem to be any specific regulations for COVID. On that site, there is some unenforceable "guidance" and also there is some discussion of how existing OSHA rules apply to covid-19 issues. I don't know enough to say whether the existing rules are sufficient or whether the agency should be doing more.
    I don't know whether OSHA has any public health capabilities -- it does have the broad mission of protecting workers. The Mine Safety and Health Admin. is also in Dept. of Labor and has substantial role in health and, I beleive, medical officers and the like -- "black lung," e.g.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  12. #7612
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Washington Post

    Researchers retract study that found big risks in using hydroxychloroquine to treat covid-19


    By Laurie McGinley
June 4 at 6:36 PM ET

    Three of the authors of a study that found the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine was dangerous for hospitalized covid-19 patients retracted it Thursday, saying they could “no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.”
The retraction notice was posted by the medical journal Lancet, which had published the study on May 22.

    Almost immediately after the study’s publication, critics raised questions about the data and analysis provided by a private company, Chicago-based Surgisphere, and its founder, Sepan Desai. Another study that also relied on the database — one that looked at the effects of blood-pressure medications on covid-19 patients — also was retracted Thursday, by the New England Journal of Medicine.

    The retractions raised concerns in the medical and scientific community that researchers and even prestigious medical journals are lowering their standards in a rush to publish during the pandemic.
“I’m concerned that the usual standards, both at the level of the journals and at the level of authors and faculty rushing to get high-impact work published, has meant that our usual standards have fallen,” said Steven Joffe, a medical ethicist at the University of Pennsylvania.

    The authors of the Lancet study said in their statement that they launched an independent third-party peer review of Surgisphere, with the consent of Desai, to confirm the completeness and accuracy of the data and to replicate its analysis.
But, they said, the company declined to provide the full data set to the reviewer, saying it would violate client agreements and confidentiality requirements.
“As such, our reviewers were not able to conduct an independent and private peer review and therefore notified us of their withdrawal from the peer-review process,” said the statement by the lead author, Mandeep R. Mehra, a Harvard Medical School professor and physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and two other authors.


    The authors apologized to the editors of the journal and its readers for causing “any embarrassment or inconvenience.”
The study had a major impact, prompting the World Health Organization to temporarily suspend use of hydroxychloroquine in a clinical trial on covid-19 treatments, and France banned its use in covid-19 patients.
    This is really sad, but not at all surprising. Faced with a worldwide pandemic, there is naturally a rush to try to get any and all information as quickly as possible; this inevitably leads to poor quality studies. The internet, with all its online journals, had already weakened the quality of studies considerably a long time before the pandemic arose. The New England Journal of Medicine and other older publications had stayed above the fray until now.

    As if the general public didn't distrust the "experts" enough already. This is not the first study to be retracted and it probably won't be the last, either.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  13. #7613
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    Washington Post

    Researchers retract study that found big risks in using hydroxychloroquine to treat covid-19


    By Laurie McGinley
June 4 at 6:36 PM ET

    Three of the authors of a study that found the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine was dangerous for hospitalized covid-19 patients retracted it Thursday, saying they could “no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.”
The retraction notice was posted by the medical journal Lancet, which had published the study on May 22.

    Almost immediately after the study’s publication, critics raised questions about the data and analysis provided by a private company, Chicago-based Surgisphere, and its founder, Sepan Desai. Another study that also relied on the database — one that looked at the effects of blood-pressure medications on covid-19 patients — also was retracted Thursday, by the New England Journal of Medicine.

    The retractions raised concerns in the medical and scientific community that researchers and even prestigious medical journals are lowering their standards in a rush to publish during the pandemic.
“I’m concerned that the usual standards, both at the level of the journals and at the level of authors and faculty rushing to get high-impact work published, has meant that our usual standards have fallen,” said Steven Joffe, a medical ethicist at the University of Pennsylvania.

    The authors of the Lancet study said in their statement that they launched an independent third-party peer review of Surgisphere, with the consent of Desai, to confirm the completeness and accuracy of the data and to replicate its analysis.
But, they said, the company declined to provide the full data set to the reviewer, saying it would violate client agreements and confidentiality requirements.
“As such, our reviewers were not able to conduct an independent and private peer review and therefore notified us of their withdrawal from the peer-review process,” said the statement by the lead author, Mandeep R. Mehra, a Harvard Medical School professor and physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and two other authors.


    The authors apologized to the editors of the journal and its readers for causing “any embarrassment or inconvenience.”
The study had a major impact, prompting the World Health Organization to temporarily suspend use of hydroxychloroquine in a clinical trial on covid-19 treatments, and France banned its use in covid-19 patients.
    I am aware of that retraction. As rsvman noted, this is largely because of the rush to publish findings without thorough peer review, vetting of source data, or from retrospective studies being discussed in the same manner as double blind, placebo controlled studies.

    They were several studies showing HCQ did not have a positive effect on COVID recovery and an association with increased cardiac issues in addition to the above retracted ones. Which is why the FDA revoked the Emergency Use authorization on June 15th that it put in place on March 28th. If it was just one flawed study why wouldn't the FDA restate the Emergency Use? There is a lot of partial, incomplete data against or for (Henry Ford study) HCQ as an effective treatment. In that case the regulatory agency should use caution and rule against of an unverified treatment in an ad hoc fashion outside of monitored clinical trials. The EUA revocation does not keep HCQ from being tested for effect against COVID in a approved trial

    Perhaps, earlier administration of HCQ at more moderate doses such as the Henry Ford study would have great effect against COVID. I hope that it does. Put it should be shown more definitively before being the "standard" for treatment
    Coach K on Kyle Singler - "What position does he play? ... He plays winner."

    "Duke is never the underdog" - Quinn Cook

  14. #7614
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by tbyers11 View Post
    I am aware of that retraction. As rsvman noted, this is largely because of the rush to publish findings without thorough peer review, vetting of source data, or from retrospective studies being discussed in the same manner as double blind, placebo controlled studies.
    No, this was MUCH worse than you appear to understand. These now-shamed MDs and scientists committed outright fraud. The data was falsified. It was all a bunch of bs and lies. Read the following article:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/forbetterscience.com/2020/06/05/would-lancet-and-nejm-retractions-happen-if-not-for-covid-19-and-chloroquine/amp/

    Virtually all of the incorrect idea, propagated by the media and the general public, that hydroxychloroquine commonly has significant negative health effects came from this bogus “study”.

    In reality, hydroxychloroquine, which has been widely used for over 60 years, is one of the safest medications in the history of medicine.

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