PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[Bluedog]

That would be sufficient for herd immunity wouldn’t it?

I'm not sure because haven't their been outbreaks in schools for like measles and such when the non-vaccinated numbers are even lower than 27%? Maybe that exact data doesn't exist (% of unvaccinated individuals in a given cohort).

[Bluedog]

very interesting political breakdown of who doesn't want The Jab, and i'll leave it at that.

I wish they did other breakdowns rather than political party affiliation (e.g. education level). They did do male/female split and interestingly, Democratic men are much more likely to say they'll get the vaccine (90%) than Democractic women (~70%) - no idea why there'd be that divide.

[CDu]

That would be sufficient for herd immunity wouldn’t it?

Possibly. Depends on the true value of R as well as the degree of immunity from past cases (both among the symptomatic and asymptomatic/unconfirmed). And, most importantly, both the number who actually get vaccinated and the vaccine's effectiveness.

If everyone of those 71% got vaccinated AND the vaccine was 100% effective, we would almost certainly be at herd immunity. Highly unlikely that the latter proves true, probably unlikely that the first does either. That said, if the number vaccinated is close enough to that 71% (flu vaccine is about 45-50% per year) and the vaccine effectiveness is close enough to that 100% (so, hopefully MUCH better than the flu vaccine) we would either be at or approach quickly herd immunity.

[CDu]

I'm not sure because haven't their been outbreaks in schools for like measles and such when the non-vaccinated numbers are even lower than 27%? Maybe that exact data doesn't exist (% of unvaccinated individuals in a given cohort).

Measles is a much different animal than coronavirus. Vaccination rates have to be MUCH higher to prevent measles.

[Aladuke]

I find this word really spooky, as I am immediately reminded of the death of Czech foreign minister Jan Masaryk in 1948, who was found dead in a courtyard in his pajamas, likely at the hands of the new Communist regime.

I did find an example that was more rewarding --
"On October 26, 1997, NBA player Charles Barkley was arrested for hurling a bar patron through a plate-glass window after the man tossed a glass of ice at him."

I mean, would you ever conceive of throwing a glass of ice at Charles Barkley?

I was told by a friend of Sir Charles that when the judge asked him if he had any regrets for his action, he stated that he was sorry that the bar wasn't located on the sixth floor. Sounds like him.

[mattman91]

Serious (probably stupid) question.

This may have already been answered already, but why should people get a vaccine for this is they are not at risk? The death rate for healthy late 20/early 30 years olds is very low.

[El_Diablo]

Serious (probably stupid) question.

This may have already been answered already, but why should people get a vaccine for this is they are not at risk? The death rate for healthy late 20/early 30 years olds is very low.

Mainly so they don't infect other people who are at higher risk.

Also, using the death rate is overly simplistic. It can be debilitating for weeks and/or lead to serious long-term health issues without causing death.

[jimsumner]

Serious (probably stupid) question.

This may have already been answered already, but why should people get a vaccine for this is they are not at risk? The death rate for healthy late 20/early 30 years olds is very low.

What's the rate of transmission to people at higher risk?

Seems like a good reason to me.

[rsvman]

Mainly so they don't infect other people who are at higher risk.

Also, using the death rate is overly simplistic. It can be debilitating for weeks and/or lead to serious long-term health issues without causing death.

This.


Everybody is at risk. If young, healthy people don't want to do it to prevent themselves from being one the people that leave the hospital without a limb from a devastating blood clot, perhaps they could be persuaded to think about the health of others?

[Bluedog]

Mainly so they don't infect other people who are at higher risk.

Also, using the death rate is overly simplistic. It can be debilitating for weeks and/or lead to serious long-term health issues without causing death.

Yeah, some people I've spoken to that have recovered from it say they still feel winded more often than they used to. That might not be a "serious long-term health issue" but is a long-standing impact that I'd imagine people would want to avoid. This impact seems inconclusive and anecdotal at this point though.
https://www.covid-19facts.com/?p=84191
"Business Insider. Some people who recover from the coronavirus might be left with ’20 to 30%’ less lung function, and gasping for breath when they walk quickly, Hong Kong doctors said"

[golfinesquire]

That would be sufficient for herd immunity wouldn’t it?

I read that the scientists don't know yet but the numbers are between 60% and 80%. It seems to me that the thought process should not be what is the minimum so I don't have to get vaccinated but that we should try to get everyone who immune system can tolerate the vaccine vaccinated. Anything else not only puts the onus unfairly on other people and also could due harm to people whose health issues prevent them from getting the vac.

[CameronDuke]

Most of Virginia will enter Phase Two reopening on Friday, June 5, the governor announced Tuesday. The City of Richmond will remain in Phase One.

“Phase Two will include more flexibility for restaurants, gyms, sports, outdoor entertainment venues, and gatherings of up to 50 people. It means restaurants can have indoor seating again at 50% of their capacity. It means gyms and fitness centers can have indoor classes and workouts at 30% of their capacity and pools can open with some restrictions,” Governor Ralph Northam said “It means some of our entertainment venues like museums, and zoos, botanical gardens and outdoor venues can reopen. Again with some restrictions. It means recreational sports are allowed with physical distancing requirements and no shared equipment. And it means swimming pools can be open to exercise and swim instruction.”

The governor said a complete list of Phase Two details would be available online later on Tuesday.

The transition from Phase One to Phase Two was made possible by the positive trend of key COVID-19 numbers, the governor said.

“We've been in Phase One for nearly three weeks and our health data continues to look good. Our hospitals do not report any shortage of PPE and we work continuously to help make sure our medical facilities have the PPE that they need. Our hospital bed capacity remains steady,” he said. “Statewide, the percentage of people hospitalized with a positive or pending COVID test has a slight downward trend. Our health data metrics show that testing is increasing. And the percent of tests that are positive continues to trend downward.”

Northern Virginia and the City of Richmond, which entered Phase One reopening later than the rest of the state, will remain in Phase One for now.

[Bluedog]

Most of Virginia will enter Phase Two reopening on Friday, June 5, the governor announced Tuesday. The City of Richmond will remain in Phase One.

“Phase Two will include more flexibility for restaurants, gyms, sports, outdoor entertainment venues, and gatherings of up to 50 people. It means restaurants can have indoor seating again at 50% of their capacity. It means gyms and fitness centers can have indoor classes and workouts at 30% of their capacity and pools can open with some restrictions,” Governor Ralph Northam said “It means some of our entertainment venues like museums, and zoos, botanical gardens and outdoor venues can reopen. Again with some restrictions. It means recreational sports are allowed with physical distancing requirements and no shared equipment. And it means swimming pools can be open to exercise and swim instruction.”

The governor said a complete list of Phase Two details would be available online later on Tuesday.

The transition from Phase One to Phase Two was made possible by the positive trend of key COVID-19 numbers, the governor said.

“We've been in Phase One for nearly three weeks and our health data continues to look good. Our hospitals do not report any shortage of PPE and we work continuously to help make sure our medical facilities have the PPE that they need. Our hospital bed capacity remains steady,” he said. “Statewide, the percentage of people hospitalized with a positive or pending COVID test has a slight downward trend. Our health data metrics show that testing is increasing. And the percent of tests that are positive continues to trend downward.”

Northern Virginia and the City of Richmond, which entered Phase One reopening later than the rest of the state, will remain in Phase One for now.

Wow, gatherings up to 50... Interesting to see the state by state differences. My state just went to Phase 3 (seemingly farther than 2), but restricting gatherings to 10, including daycares. Also indoor dining in restaurants still forbidden.

[YmoBeThere]

Serious (probably stupid) question.

This may have already been answered already, but why should people get a vaccine for this is they are not at risk? The death rate for healthy late 20/early 30 years olds is very low.

Mainly so they don't infect other people who are at higher risk.

Also, using the death rate is overly simplistic. It can be debilitating for weeks and/or lead to serious long-term health issues without causing death.

What's the rate of transmission to people at higher risk?

Seems like a good reason to me.

This.


Everybody is at risk. If young, healthy people don't want to do it to prevent themselves from being one the people that leave the hospital without a limb from a devastating blood clot, perhaps they could be persuaded to think about the health of others?

To add to all this is the great unknown of what is truly higher risk. Do you have an undiagnosed genetic condition that you are unaware of or has not surfaced in routine medical exams? Maybe unlikely, but possible. In my mind, this moves everyone into the potentially high risk group until proven otherwise. In most cases, this doesn't prove out as an issue, but it is a non-zero possibility.

[YmoBeThere]

Just curious for those who have followed the thread closer than I have, has the subject of Covid-19 being a vasculotropic disease come up? I'm starting to see it at some websites that I'm not familiar with.

Coronavirus May Not Be a Respiratory Disease After All and that Could Change Everything, a Study Claims

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25872/20200529/coronavirus-respiratory-disease-change-everything.htm#

In the study, the authors determined that the SARS-CoV-2 affected endothelial cells in the lungs, heart, liver, kidneys, and intestines in infected patients. Furthermore, endothelial cells line the inside of blood vessels and give off a protein responsible for numerous processes such as blood clotting and immune response.


The findings of the paper were published on April 20, 2020, in the scientific journal The Lancet.

Also references a New England Journal of Medicine article: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432

[Indoor66]

To add to all this is the great unknown of what is truly higher risk. Do you have an undiagnosed genetic condition that you are unaware of or has not surfaced in routine medical exams? Maybe unlikely, but possible. In my mind, this moves everyone into the potentially high risk group until proven otherwise. In most cases, this doesn't prove out as an issue, but it is a non-zero possibility.

How far do you want to reach for something to worry about? No one gets out alive.

[YmoBeThere]

How far do you want to reach for something to worry about? No one gets out alive.

I work in insurance. Non-zero risks matter particularly depending upon how non-zero they are and whether or not the outcome is catastrophic. And those that are catastrophic you do your best to mitigate. Or you just don't insure. Sometimes it is best not to play the game.(Yes, WarGames movie reference there.)

[OldPhiKap]

I work in insurance. Non-zero risks matter particularly depending upon how non-zero they are and whether or not the outcome is catastrophic. And those that are catastrophic you do your best to mitigate. Or you just don't insure. Sometimes it is best not to play the game.(Yes, WarGames movie reference there.)

COVID, murder hornets, riots. Global Thermonuclear War cannot be far behind.

[sagegrouse]

Serious (probably stupid) question.

This may have already been answered already, but why should people get a vaccine for this is they are not at risk? The death rate for healthy late 20/early 30 years olds is very low.

So, you don't give the coronavirus to me and others with multiple high-risk factors. Or, give it someone who then gives it to me.

[DukieInKansas]

COVID, murder hornets, riots. Global Thermonuclear War cannot be far behind.

You forgot last July's grasshoppers in Vegas, the monkey that stole Covid blood samples in India, and the current locust invasion in India.