PlagueWatch 2020-23 - Coronavirus

[howardlander]

We are spending the week on one of the northern beaches in the Outer Banks. We brought enough food with us to be able to avoid a trip to a grocery store. However, we carried out dinner the last four nights from restaurants in Duck and Corolla and we have yet to see an employee in a restaurant who is wearing a mask, although Phase 2 of the governor’s order “strongly encourages” restaurant employees to wear masks.

We are in a part of Sanderling with very few homes and, even without COVID-19, groups are always separated by at least 30 yards on the beach in front of our house. When we drive through the village of Duck, it appears that the crowds are about what would be expected for a week at the beginning of June. However, we are not seeing many masks on the people strolling around the shops. And, many of the visitors in the Outer Banks are from Mid-Atlantic states.

I can’t speak to the rest of North Carolina, but the Outer Banks appears to have declared victory and moved on.

We are spending a week on Bald Head Island in late July. Mask wearing is, at least in theory, required to get on the ferry and go into any of the retail or restaurants on the island. We deliberately picked Bald Head because we are hoping it will be relatively easy to stay away form other people and relatively conformant to best practices like masking and sanitation. We'll see how it goes.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Here is a little bit of good news, wrapped up in a larger blanket of bad news.

There are 21.5 million Americans seeking unemployment assistance, which isn't good. But that is down from 25 million, and this week there were "only" 1.9 new applications. That is a sign that companies are slowly getting back to work. According to this article, it's the ninth week in row that numbers have gone down.

https://www.witn.com/content/news/Ma...571010691.html

[CameronBornAndBred]

We are spending a week on Bald Head Island in late July. Mask wearing is, at least in theory, required to get on the ferry and go into any of the retail or restaurants on the island. We deliberately picked Bald Head because we are hoping it will be relatively easy to stay away form other people and relatively conformant to best practices like masking and sanitation. We'll see how it goes.

We are going to Charleston this week to visit my parents. One of the things we do when we go is to enjoy the downtown, and the City Market. The latter is closed, and I don't expect much will be open downtown. Even if they both were open, I'm not sure we'd be feeling any great urge to go mingle with the large crowds that are there. We are looking forward to going to Magnolia Plantation, which is open for limited hours. That's a great place to visit, and is spacious enough that social distancing can easily be practiced. Supposedly they are taking temps as visitors check in.

[CameronDuke]

But you wrote that there are currently 1,266 patients currently hospitalized? Again - not nitpicking - I really appreciate the info. Thanks.

I think those 1,266 may be tests that are either positive/pending. I am honestly not entirely sure, though:

“There are currently 1,266 patients in hospitals who are either positive or whose test results are pending throughout the state.”

Good catch - I would guess maybe the majority of those patients are patients with test results of pending?

[bundabergdevil]

We are going to Charleston this week to visit my parents. One of the things we do when we go is to enjoy the downtown, and the City Market. The latter is closed, and I don't expect much will be open downtown. Even if they both were open, I'm not sure we'd be feeling any great urge to go mingle with the large crowds that are there. We are looking forward to going to Magnolia Plantation, which is open for limited hours. That's a great place to visit, and is spacious enough that social distancing can easily be practiced. Supposedly they are taking temps as visitors check in.

I appreciate reading all these summer plan updates, keep them coming. My folks live on the coast between Myrtle and Charleston and we're trying to figure out if we want to go for an annual summer visit. We have a 4 month old so if we do go, we won't be going out anywhere and we're keeping a close on any spikes. My grandmother - our son's great grandmother - is also in an assisted living facility in the area. I don't think she's going to be allowed to physically meet her newest great grandchild, which breaks my heart, but we're hoping to at least do a through-the-glass introduction.

We're pretty nervous though. The reports from my folks is that the beaches are packed, which doesn't bother me, but so are all the bars and restaurants even though they're supposed to be operating at half capacity.

We'll see but it's good hearing other people's plans.

[Bluedog]

Here is a little bit of good news, wrapped up in a larger blanket of bad news.

There are 21.5 million Americans seeking unemployment assistance, which isn't good. But that is down from 25 million, and this week there were "only" 1.9 new applications. That is a sign that companies are slowly getting back to work. According to this article, it's the ninth week in row that numbers have gone down.

https://www.witn.com/content/news/Ma...571010691.html

I recognize you put "only" in quotes (as it's relative to the recent prior weeks), but just putting that 1.9M new applications in context. It'd still smash the old record. I believe the height of the Great Recession had 900,000 claims...So, yeah, unemployment right now is dire and will likely be a record since monthly records have been tracked since 1948, but the rapid descent is slowing at least.

[YmoBeThere]

Just curious for those who have followed the thread closer than I have, has the subject of Covid-19 being a vasculotropic disease come up? I'm starting to see it at some websites that I'm not familiar with.

Coronavirus May Not Be a Respiratory Disease After All and that Could Change Everything, a Study Claims

https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/25872/20200529/coronavirus-respiratory-disease-change-everything.htm#

In the study, the authors determined that the SARS-CoV-2 affected endothelial cells in the lungs, heart, liver, kidneys, and intestines in infected patients. Furthermore, endothelial cells line the inside of blood vessels and give off a protein responsible for numerous processes such as blood clotting and immune response.


The findings of the paper were published on April 20, 2020, in the scientific journal The Lancet.

Also references a New England Journal of Medicine article: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432

As of Thursday, June 4, 6,284 people have been discharged following hospitalization for coronavirus. The state also reports that it currently has 4,152 beds available with only 19 percent of its ventilators in use.

There are currently 1,266 patients in hospitals who are either positive or whose test results are pending throughout the state.

As the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise throughout Virginia, the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association (VHHA) is also keeping track of the state’s hospital bed and ventilator availability.

The above articles lead me to believe that ventilator capacity available isn’t a great metric. And that the ventilator needs were an early response that hasn’t proved as necessary or needed as originally thought.

[CameronDuke]

The above articles lead me to believe that ventilator capacity available isn’t a great metric. And that the ventilator needs were an early response that hasn’t proved as necessary or needed as originally thought.

I have read guidance that has essentially stated putting patients on ventilators were intervention methods hospitals used early on in this pandemic in America but it is being utilized less now. Here in Virginia, ventilator capacity usage hasn’t increased to more than 20-21% from what I have seen in quite some time.

[Neals384]

Another church opening here...the one we attend. Our county is approved for phase 2 re-opening, which includes places of worship, with restrictions of course. Each family s assigned one week per month - we got the 4th Sunday. I hate to wait, but it does give the church the chance to make adjustments to their procedures if needed.

Our church originally said masks "will be available to those who want one," and then (after I objected, probably others too) revised that to "masks required at the 7:30 worship." Since that is when I go anyway, it's a huge relief. Still concerned, of course, about the possibility of a wave of infections arising from the other two services.

I know some here don't understand the need for churches to reopen, or understand why people would take the risk of attending. All I can say is, over the last two months I've discovered that life without in-person worship isn't really very tenable. For me.

[Tripping William]

We are spending a week on Bald Head Island in late July. Mask wearing is, at least in theory, required to get on the ferry and go into any of the retail or restaurants on the island. We deliberately picked Bald Head because we are hoping it will be relatively easy to stay away form other people and relatively conformant to best practices like masking and sanitation. We'll see how it goes.

I have a good contact on BHI, from whom we have rented a few times. He said that it has been a great place to “quarantine.” I can see that it would be. Love that place!

[howardlander]

I have a good contact on BHI, from whom we have rented a few times. He said that it has been a great place to “quarantine.” I can see that it would be. Love that place!

I'm happy to hear that, thanks. We have have been twice, but this will be the first time we've gone for a full week. I'm not so much of a beach guy anymore, (I went to High School in Wilmington, NC and have literally been to the beach hundreds of times), but we just want a place to chill out for a week that isn't our house. Thought about the mountains, but as much as I love Asheville, I just don't think the fun stuff to do in the town is quite safe yet. I'm 61, maybe if I was 41 I would be more amenable to risking it, but I think a week looking at the waves in relative isolation will do us some good.

[budwom]

I'm happy to hear that, thanks. We have have been twice, but this will be the first time we've gone for a full week. I'm not so much of a beach guy anymore, (I went to High School in Wilmington, NC and have literally been to the beach hundreds of times), but we just want a place to chill out for a week that isn't our house. Thought about the mountains, but as much as I love Asheville, I just don't think the fun stuff to do in the town is quite safe yet. I'm 61, maybe if I was 41 I would be more amenable to risking it, but I think a week looking at the waves in relative isolation will do us some good.

Might want to bring a bunch of food, otherwise someone will have to join the scrum in the grocery stores which can be crazy at times in the summer.

[Kdogg]

I’m beginning to not trust those numbers as they are constantly revising their algorithm. A couple days ago Texas was at a 1.13. We are seeing increasing case counts and the rolling 7 day numbers are the highest they’ve been. This holds true for here in San Antonio also, though we haven’t seen the same increases other Texas metros have. The upside still is that hospital capacity is in good shape but even those numbers continue to inch up/get worse.

Yeah. Tuesday/Wednesday South Carolina was at 1.22 - the highest in the nation. Now Wednesday/Thursday we are 1.03.

[JasonEvans]

Yeah. Tuesday/Wednesday South Carolina was at 1.22 - the highest in the nation. Now Wednesday/Thursday we are 1.03.

I've never had a good handle on how they were getting the data they needed to project R in each of these states. It feels even more problematic than the forecast models.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I'm happy to hear that, thanks. We have have been twice, but this will be the first time we've gone for a full week. I'm not so much of a beach guy anymore, (I went to High School in Wilmington, NC and have literally been to the beach hundreds of times), but we just want a place to chill out for a week that isn't our house. Thought about the mountains, but as much as I love Asheville, I just don't think the fun stuff to do in the town is quite safe yet. I'm 61, maybe if I was 41 I would be more amenable to risking it, but I think a week looking at the waves in relative isolation will do us some good.

Asheville without the music, beer taps, and restaurants is definitely lacking in intrigue.

[aimo]

"A federal judge in New York denied Bernie Madoff's request for compassionate release from Butner Federal Correctional Complex, according to ABC News."

[rsvman]

I think those 1,266 may be tests that are either positive/pending. I am honestly not entirely sure, though:

“There are currently 1,266 patients in hospitals who are either positive or whose test results are pending throughout the state.”

Good catch - I would guess maybe the majority of those patients are patients with test results of pending?

Who knows? It depends on what test they are using, whether they are doing the tests in house or sending them out, etc. At our hospital, we run a batch every morning starting at 6:30 a.m. Results are available at 2:30 in the afternoon. Lather, rinse, repeat. We also have a few very rapid tests that result out within an hour; we reserve those for people who need to have surgery.

On the other hand, I just got told this morning that one of our Nurse Practitioners had tested positive. She had her test done last Friday and it just resulted today. She went to an urgent care center somewhere to get it done.

So the turnaround time for testing ranges from about an hour (like Lenscrafters!) to about a week.

[bundabergdevil]

"A federal judge in New York denied Bernie Madoff's request for compassionate release from Butner Federal Correctional Complex, according to ABC News."

Does that guy have a more perfect last name for someone who ran a ponzi scheme? Like, he couldn't choreograph what he's doing with your money any more clearly!

I like the De Niro flick about the scheme, The Wizard of Lies. Never ceases to amaze me how smoke and mirrors can fool the best and brightest...

[howardlander]

Might want to bring a bunch of food, otherwise someone will have to join the scrum in the grocery stores which can be crazy at times in the summer.

That is a good point. I think we will bring some, but also Maritime Market will stock the fridge before you get there. They charge 20% for it, but I still think we are going to do it. In the context of all the expenses, I don't think that one matters much.

When you have brought food over on the ferry, how did you pack it up so it survived the containers they use?

Howard

[BD80]

"A federal judge in New York denied Bernie Madoff's request for compassionate release from Butner Federal Correctional Complex, according to ABC News."

Does that guy have a more perfect last name for someone who ran a ponzi scheme? Like, he couldn't choreograph what he's doing with your money any more clearly!

I like the De Niro flick about the scheme, The Wizard of Lies. Never ceases to amaze me how smoke and mirrors can fool the best and brightest...

Madoff should have been wearing a mask for years ...